农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年03月02日星期一 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周一，化工板块全面大涨，美伊冲突全面升级，伊朗 最高领导人在冲突中遇害，受此影响，原油价格出现大幅上涨带动 合成橡胶价格冲击前高。天胶现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价67.6泰 铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/kg；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比+0.8泰铢 /kg。现货价格方面，盘后山东地区SCRWF报价17000元/吨，环比 +100元/吨。美伊对抗进一步升级，美国考虑对伊朗实施有限的军 事打击，同时俄乌谈判未取得实质性进展，原油价格大幅高开，原 油带动合成橡胶出现高开，但需警惕美伊局势变 ...

农产品团队 | 作者： | 辛旋 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 第一部分橡胶品种观点总结 . | | --- | | 第二部分期货市场行情回顾 | | 一、期货行情回顾 | | 二、期货市场仓单情况 | | 第三部分现货市场走势 | | 第四部分基差价差情况 | | 第五部分月间价差情况- | | 第六部分产业供需库存情况 . | | 第七部分期权相关数据 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2026年02月26日星期四 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 天然橡胶日度策略报告 摘要 【行情复盘】周四，橡胶期价冲高后多头获利了解期价出现跳水， 本周2609合约涨幅开始大于近月，现货端泰国中央市场胶水报价6 7.3泰铢/kg，环比+0.3泰铢/kg；胶杯报价58.8泰铢/kg，环比 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Precious metals (gold, silver), platinum, palladium, palm oil, ethylene glycol, styrene, PE [1] - Bearish: Steel (rebar, hot - rolled coil), iron ore, soybean meal, SHK, caustic soda [1] - Neutral: Industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, glass, soda ash, coking coal, coke, rapeseed oil, cotton, sugar, grains, pulp, BR rubber, urea, methanol, PVC, LPG, container shipping [1] 2. Core Views - In the short - term, attention should be paid to whether the panic caused by overseas liquidity tightening can be effectively alleviated. After a shrinking - volume rebound, the stock index is expected to consolidate through oscillations. In the long - run, the upward trend of the stock index is not expected to end due to abundant domestic market funds and the economy in the bottom - building process [1] - The "asset shortage" and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1] - After the release of macro - negative factors, the sentiment has recovered. However, supply concerns in the non - ferrous metal market may continue to disrupt the market, and different non - ferrous metals have different price trends and investment suggestions [1] - For agricultural products, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, and factors such as policies, weather, and demand seasons need to be considered [1] - In the energy and chemical sectors, factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes affect product prices and investment decisions [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term attention to overseas liquidity panic, long - term upward trend remains [1] - Treasury bonds: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but short - term interest - rate risks are warned, and focus on the Bank of Japan's decision [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: After the release of macro risks, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [1] - Aluminum: After the release of risks, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound [1] - Alumina: Supply is strong and demand is weak, and the price is expected to oscillate [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stable, and the price is expected to rebound after a correction. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - Nickel: Short - term price stabilizes and rebounds, affected by the non - ferrous sector. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. Long - term high global nickel inventory may have a suppressing effect [1] - Stainless steel: The raw material end has support, and the futures price oscillates. It is recommended to focus on short - term trading [1] - Tin: After a strong rebound, pay attention to risk management in the short - term high - volatility situation [1] Precious metals and new energy - Gold, silver: After the liquidity problem is alleviated, they are expected to gradually repair and run strongly [1] - Platinum, palladium: There is short - term support and are expected to gradually stabilize and rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production increases, southwest production decreases, and the production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreases [1] - Polysilicon: Wait and see due to liquidity risks [1] - Lithium carbonate: In the off - season of new energy vehicles, but with strong energy - storage demand and battery export rush. There is a need for a correction after a large increase [1] Ferrous metals - Rebar, hot - rolled coil: The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak, and the upward momentum is insufficient. It is recommended to exit long positions and participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and it is not recommended to chase long positions [1] - Coke, coking coal: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase is shelved, the price may gradually move towards the Mongolian coal long - term agreement cost [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Expected to oscillate strongly with the start of purchasing in major consuming countries and possible production reduction and inventory depletion in the producing areas [1] - Rapeseed oil: There is a risk of short - term correction due to the approaching end of pre - festival stocking and macro - sentiment [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver". Pay attention to policies, planting intentions, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a global surplus and an increase in domestic new - crop supply. The short - side consensus is strong, and pay attention to the change of capital [1] - Grains: Before the festival, the upward momentum is insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate and correct. Pay attention to the short - term selling pressure [1] - Soybean meal: Expected to oscillate weakly [1] - Pulp: With disturbances on the supply side and weakening demand after restocking, it is recommended to wait and see [1] - Logs: The spot price rises, and the futures price has an upward driving force [1] - Pigs: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and the production capacity needs to be further released [1] Energy - Crude oil: OPEC+ suspends production increase until the end of 2026, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East may ease. The commodity market sentiment cools down [1] - Bitumen: Follows crude oil in the short - term, the "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand is likely to be falsified, and the profit is high [1] - SHK: There is strong raw - material cost support, the commodity market sentiment turns bearish, the pre - festival downstream demand weakens, and the futures - spot price difference expands [1] Chemicals - BR rubber: The cost end has support, the short - term downstream negative feedback is realized, and the inventory is decreasing. The short - term price is expected to oscillate widely, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1] - PTA: Driven by the strong PX market, the chemical sector has a large inflow of funds, and the polyester leads the rise. The domestic PTA production increases, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production reduction is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: The price rebounds after a long - term slump, and the reduction of Middle East exports boosts market confidence. There is an increase in speculative demand [1] - Short - fiber: The price closely follows the cost [1] - Styrene: The price rebounds rapidly with the improvement of the supply - demand fundamentals, and the inventory is decreasing [1] - Urea: The export sentiment eases, the domestic demand is insufficient, and there is support from anti - involution and the cost end [1] - Methanol: Affected by the Iranian situation, the import is expected to decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. There are multiple factors in a tug - of - war [1] - PE: There is a risk of crude oil price increase due to intensified geopolitical conflicts, and the linear production ratio decreases [1] - PVC: The global production capacity expansion is limited in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and the production capacity may be cleared [1] - Caustic soda: The macro - sentiment fades, the fundamentals are weak, and the factory inventory is increasing, with downward pressure on the spot price [1] - LPG: The CP price rises in February, the risk premium in the Middle East decreases, the overseas cold - wave driving logic slows down, the demand is short - term bearish, and the basis is expected to expand [1] - Container shipping: The pre - festival freight rate peaks and falls, the airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is a strong willingness to stop the price decline and raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Biodiesel, Cottonseed Oil, Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Soybeans, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, LPG, Container Shipping on European Routes [1] - **Neutral**: Most other industries including stocks, bonds, and various metals and agricultural products, with suggestions of short - term caution, waiting for opportunities, and controlling risks [1] 2. Core Views - **Macro - financial**: In the short term, policies will support the A - share market, but overseas liquidity tightening may cause panic. In the long run, the stock index is still expected to rise due to low - interest rates, "asset shortage" and economic bottom - building. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank has warned of interest - rate risks [1]. - **Metals**: Macro - level risk aversion is pressuring the non - ferrous metals sector. Supply concerns in Indonesia are affecting nickel and stainless steel, while other metals like zinc, tin, etc. are facing different price trends and risks [1]. - **Agricultural products**: Different agricultural products have different market situations. For example, cotton has support but lacks a driving force; sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support; grains are expected to oscillate and decline before the holiday [1]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The energy and chemical sector is affected by various factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes. Some products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene are showing different price movements and trends [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Macro - financial** - **Stocks**: Short - term caution is advised due to A - share weakness and overseas liquidity concerns. Long - term upward trend is expected due to low - interest rates and economic recovery [1]. - **Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but short - term interest - rate risks are highlighted, and the Japanese central bank's interest - rate decision should be monitored [1]. **Metals** - **Non - ferrous metals**: Overall under pressure from risk aversion. Nickel and stainless steel are affected by Indonesian supply issues. Zinc is expected to correct, and tin's price has fluctuated but not in a trend - reversing way. Gold and silver are in short - term oscillatory or stabilizing trends. Platinum and palladium may be supported in the short term [1]. - **Industrial metals**: Alumina is expected to oscillate near the cost line. Steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil) have limited upward space, and iron ore has a clear upper pressure [1]. **Agricultural products** - **Grains and oilseeds**: Soybeans are expected to be weak. Cotton is "supported but without a driver". Sugar has a bearish consensus but cost support. Grains are expected to decline before the holiday [1]. - **Livestock**: The pig production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **Fossil fuels**: Crude oil and fuel oil may be affected by OPEC+ policies, geopolitical events, and market sentiment. Asphalt has high profits but is also affected by supply and demand [1]. - **Chemicals**: PX drives the chemical sector. PTA, ethylene glycol, and styrene have different supply - demand and price trends. Methanol, polyethylene, PVC, and LPG are affected by various factors such as geopolitical risks, supply - demand relationships, and cost changes [1]. **Shipping** - **Container shipping**: The freight rate on European routes has peaked and declined before the holiday. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights and plan to raise prices after the off - season in March [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, although external disturbances intensify, domestic capital drives the stock index to maintain strong resilience, with limited space for short - term shock adjustment. Long - term investors can gradually build long positions. - The asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest rate risks in the short term. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. - Market risk - aversion sentiment has significantly increased, leading to sharp fluctuations in prices of various commodities such as copper, aluminum, nickel, etc. Different commodities have different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [1]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Stock Index - Short - term: Despite increased external disturbances, domestic capital drives the stock index to remain resilient, with limited shock adjustment space. - Long - term: Long - term investors can take this opportunity to gradually build long positions [1]. Bond Futures - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest rate risks. Pay attention to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. Metals Copper - Market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and after a sharp rise in copper prices, market sentiment amplifies the fluctuation range, causing intensified price fluctuations. Pay attention to Kevin Warsh's statement [1]. Aluminum - Limited industry drive and increased macro risk - aversion sentiment have caused a sharp decline in aluminum prices. Pay attention to the recovery of market sentiment [1]. Alumina - Supply exceeds demand in the domestic alumina industry, with a weak industrial outlook and price pressure. However, the current price is near the cost line, and prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Zinc - The cost center of the zinc fundamentals is stabilizing. The North American cold wave has affected energy prices, which is unfavorable for overseas smelter restart. There are expectations of fundamental improvement. Under the current risk - aversion sentiment, zinc prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Nickel - In the short term, nickel prices fluctuate weakly, affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous metal sector. Pay attention to Indonesian policies and macro - sentiment. In the medium - to - long - term, high global nickel inventories may still have a suppressing effect. It is recommended to operate in the short term and wait for low - buying opportunities [1]. Stainless Steel - The raw material nickel - iron price continues to rise, but the spot trading of stainless steel is weak, and the social inventory has slightly increased. Steel mills' maintenance and production cuts in February have increased. Pay attention to the actual production of steel mills. With raw material support and cooling macro - sentiment, stainless - steel futures fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to operate in the short term and control risks [1]. Tin - Short - term market risk - aversion sentiment has increased, causing large fluctuations in tin prices. Considering the fragile tin supply fundamentals, after a full correction, it is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities from a medium - to - long - term perspective [1]. Precious Metals - Trump's nomination of a hawkish candidate for the new Fed chairman has boosted the US dollar index, putting pressure on precious metals prices. Panic selling has led to a sharp decline. In the short term, the market may continue to release risks, but the space for further sharp declines is relatively limited. It is recommended to wait and see for now [1]. Platinum and Palladium - Short - term: Panic selling has caused sharp declines in platinum and palladium prices. The market may continue to release risks, with prices expected to open sharply lower and fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see. - Medium - to - long - term: There are differences in the supply - demand prospects of platinum and palladium. There is a supply - demand gap for platinum, while palladium tends to have a loose supply. The [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can continue to be followed [1]. Industrial Silicon - Northwest production increases, while southwest production decreases. The production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon in December have declined [1]. Polysilicon - In the new - energy vehicle off - season, energy - storage demand is strong, and there is battery export rush. After a large increase, there is a need for a correction [1]. Ferrous Metals Rebar - The expectation is strong, but the spot is weak. The sentiment transmission to the spot is not smooth, and the upward momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Hot - Rolled Coil - High production and high inventory suppress price increases. The transmission of futures price increases to the spot is not smooth. Unilateral long positions should be closed and wait and see. Participate in cash - and - carry arbitrage positions [1]. Iron Ore - There is obvious upward pressure on iron ore. It is not recommended to chase long at this position [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase was shelved, short - sellers increased positions. The coking coal 05 contract has broken through important supports. The previous low - buying strategy may need to be changed. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal [1]. Agricultural Products Palm Oil - The purchasing rhythm of major consumer countries has started, and there is a possibility of production reduction and inventory reduction in the origin. Coupled with the potential fermentation of the biodiesel theme, it is expected to fluctuate strongly [1]. Soybean Oil - The domestic soybean oil fundamentals are strong, combined with the rebound of US soybeans and positive news about US biodiesel. It is recommended to go long [1]. Rapeseed Oil - Sino - Canadian relations are still variable under US influence, and the continuous import of Canadian rapeseed is blocked. The short - term supply contradiction is not significantly alleviated. Positive news about US biodiesel benefits the oil market [1]. Cotton - There is a strong expectation of a domestic new - crop harvest, and the cotton purchase price supports lint costs. The downstream operating rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver". Pay attention to relevant factors such as the central government's No. 1 Document in the first quarter of next year [1]. Sugar - There is a global surplus of sugar, and the domestic new - crop supply has increased. The short - selling consensus is relatively consistent. If the futures price continues to fall, there is strong cost support below. However, the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers. Pay attention to changes in the capital situation [1]. Grains - Pre - festival stocking is nearly over, the regional price difference is low, and the domestic grain reserve inventory is sufficient. Pre - festival funds are taking profits, and the upward momentum of the futures price is insufficient. It is expected to fluctuate and correct before the festival [1]. Soybeans - There is an expectation of rainfall return in the Argentine production area in February, and the total supply of Brazilian soybeans is sufficient. Logistics congestion in Brazil may postpone the selling pressure of the basis. The domestic soybean - purchasing and crushing margin is at a high level. The short - term unilateral upward expectation is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly later [1]. Pulp and Logs Pulp - There are disturbances on the supply side, but the demand side weakens after restocking. It is recommended to wait and see in the face of large fluctuations in commodity sentiment [1]. Logs - The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February is expected to decline, and the overseas quotation is expected to rise. The futures price has upward driving force [1]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Middle East geopolitical situation has heated up, and the US cold wave has increased energy demand [1]. Fuel Oil - Follows crude oil, and the short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent [1]. Asphalt - The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction rush demand is likely to be falsified, the supply of raw material (Maya crude oil) is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. BR Rubber - The cost of raw material (butadiene) has strong support, and there are expectations of increased exports in the long - term. Recently, private butadiene - rubber plant profits have been severely lost, and there are expectations of maintenance and production reduction. The short - term downstream negative feedback is gradually realized. Butadiene is in the process of inventory reduction, and high butadiene - rubber inventory is a potential negative factor. The short - term futures price is expected to fluctuate widely and correct, and there is an upward expectation in the long - term [1]. PTA and Short - Fiber - The PX market is strong, driving up chemical products. There has been a large inflow of funds into the chemical sector. The polyester sector has led the rise in the chemical industry. Domestic PTA production has continued to increase, with no new production capacity. PTA maintains a high operating rate, and domestic demand has declined. The short - fiber price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. Ethylene Glycol - After a long - term slump, the overseas ethylene - glycol price has rebounded. The reduction of ethylene - glycol exports from the Middle East has boosted market confidence. A 180 - million - ton ethylene - glycol plant in Jiangsu plans to switch a 90 - million - ton EG production line to ethylene production in mid - February. Market speculative demand has significantly increased [1]. Styrene - News of the shutdown of a styrene plant in the Middle East has spread. As the supply - demand fundamentals of styrene gradually improve, the styrene futures price has quickly rebounded. The Asian styrene market has stabilized, and the styrene - benzene price difference has widened. The inventory of styrene has decreased, alleviating the overall inventory pressure [1]. Methanol - Affected by the Iranian situation, the expected future import will decrease, but the downstream negative feedback is obvious. The downstream MTO leading device has stopped, and some enterprises have reduced production, but Fude will restart on January 25th. The Iranian situation has eased, but risks cannot be completely ruled out. Cold air has increased freight costs in the inland area, and northwest enterprises have large inventory - clearing pressure and are selling at reduced prices [1]. PE - The Zhong'an United full - density device has stopped, and the linear production ratio has decreased. There are risks of rising crude oil prices due to intensified geopolitical conflicts [1]. PVC - Global production capacity expansion in 2026 is limited, with an optimistic future expectation. The current fundamentals are poor. The export tax rebate has been cancelled, and there may be a rush to export. Differential electricity prices in the northwest region are expected to be implemented, forcing out inefficient PVC production capacity [1]. PG - The March CP is expected to decline compared with February. The Middle East geopolitical conflict has cooled down, and the short - term risk premium has decreased. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and the futures price is expected to weaken, with the basis expected to widen. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to seasonally recover. The global civilian combustion demand is stable, but the overseas olefin blending demand for MTBE has declined seasonally. The short - term demand side is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price. Be vigilant against the resurgence of the Middle East geopolitical situation [1]. Shipping Container Shipping on the European Route - Pre - festival freight rates have peaked and declined. Airlines are still cautious about trial resumption of flights. Airlines expect a strong willingness to stop the price decline and increase prices after the off - season in March [1].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|贵⾦属策略⽇报 2026-1-28 ⾦银⾼位震荡运⾏，波动⻛险加剧 ⻩⾦⾼位运⾏，避险与配置需求⽀撑其强势；⽩银在快速拉涨后进⼊⾼位 震荡，短期需警惕⾼波动下的回撤⻛险。两者均受宏观避险情绪主导，但 ⽩银受⼯业需求与资⾦获利了结影响更易出现波动。（以上新闻和数据均 来⾃彭博终端） 黄金观点 高位运行保持韧性，避险与配置属性占优，短期关注风险事件对波动 的放大效应。 逻辑： 在贵金属整体成为市场焦点的背景下，黄金在高位区间内获 得较强支撑。亚洲时段，受特朗普针对韩国关税言论影响，区域市场 不确定性上升，权益资产承压，黄金与白银小幅走高，体现避险需求 边际回流。相较其他贵金属，黄金价格运行更为平稳，波动率明显低 于白银，配置型资金重新将黄金视为优先选择，支撑其在高位维持强 势。 （以上新闻和数据均来自彭博终端） 展望： 在全球不确定性上升、风险偏好反复切换的环境下，黄金的 避险与配置价值仍具韧性。短期关注地缘与贸易政策扰动带来的波动 放大风险，但中期支撑逻辑未改。 白银观点 快速拉升后进入节奏修复阶段，价格弹性仍在，但高波动状态下回撤 风险上升。 宏观 ...

生意社 白银价格大涨 据生意社商品行情分析系统，2025年12月10日白银市场均价14319元/千克，日涨4.95%，较本月初(12月 1日)市场均价13414元/千克，上涨6.75%；较年初（1月1日）白银市场均价7450元/千克，上涨92.20%。 白银工业需求占比已升至65%，成为价格主导力量。其中光伏产业是核心增量来源，2025年全球光伏用 银量较2022年翻番，且N型电池普及进一步增加单GW耗银量，四季度全球光伏企业为2026年备货加大 订单，11-12月用银需求大幅放量；同时AI算力服务器、数据中心订单坚挺，其单机柜耗银量远高于传 统设备，再加上新能源汽车单车用银量远超传统燃油车，这些高增长领域共同推高了白银工业需求。 2025年12月10日上海黄金交易所上海银(标准重量15千克、成色不低于99.99%的银锭，定价合约)午盘基 准报价14318元/千克，较上一交易日午盘基准报价13579元/千克，上涨739元/千克。 12月10日白银期现价格联袂续创新高，伦敦银现涨近1%，沪白银主力合约单日涨幅更是高达5.27%。 多因素共振支撑白银暴涨 此次大涨是工业需求、供需格局、金融政策及资金流入等多方面因 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc prices are supported by a tightened ore end and a continuous decline in TC, but the weak domestic consumption and开工 decline in some areas due to environmental protection limit the upside space of zinc prices. The zinc prices may face pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 23,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.62% to 22,570 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 1.63% to 22,720 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.54% to 3,066.5 US dollars/ton [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons [29] 3.2.2 Zinc Concentrate Profit - As of November 6, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,094 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [36] 3.2.3 Domestic TC and Imported TC - Both domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee on November 7, 2025, was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton [37][40] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Refined Zinc Production - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 6, the production profit was - 1,164 yuan/ton. It is expected that the refined zinc production in October will be 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [46] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Import - The import profit window was closed. As of November 7, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [49] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points to 55.13%. Raw material inventory increased, and finished product inventory decreased [55][58] 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of die - casting zinc alloy increased. The start - up rate decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 50.95%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased [64][67][70] 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide increased. The start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 57.63%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly [76][79][82] 3.5 Inventory 3.5.1 Domestic Inventory - As of November 6, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 150,100 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 38,000 tons, both showing a downward trend [88] 3.5.2 Exchange Inventory - As of November 7, the SHFE inventory was 100,200 tons, showing a decline; as of November 6, the LME inventory was 34,900 tons, showing a trend of first decline and then increase [91]

中国方面，9月制造业供需改善差异扩大，供给修复快于需求。9月中采制造业PMI环比上升0.4ppt至49.8%，高于市场预期（Bloomberg预测中值为 49.6%）；9月非制造业商务活动指数环比下降0.3ppt至50.0%。制造业方面，供给边际改善幅度高于需求，库存边际增加，产成品、原材料库存分别环比 上升1.4、0.5个百分点至48.2%、48.5%；反内卷相关政策影响下，原材料购进价格继续相对强于出厂价格，9月主要原材料购进价格、出厂价格分别环比 下降0.1、0.9个百分点至53.2%、48.2%；建筑业环比小幅改善，9月建筑业商务活动指数环比小幅上升0.2个百分点至49.3%，但连续第二个月处于收缩区 间。 本期主题：避险交易可能回归 中美关税可能再升级的背景下，铜、油等对经济增长属性较为敏感的品种可能面临抛售压力，而黄金则将受益于避险情绪的升温，具体来看： 有色方面，由于中美贸易关系再起波澜，多数品种均出现高位回调。但参考上一轮4月初的关税风波，铜铝均展现出了较强的韧性：铜在触及相对90%分 位现金成本的30%溢价线，铝也在利润触及3000元/吨后迅速反弹。我们认为目前铜铝的基本面在供给叙事支撑下仍 ...