短期承压，但下方空间较为有限 2025年11月24日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：降息预期降温加之美国就业数据疲软，市场避险情 | | | | | 绪增强，有色整体承压。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋紧。国内TC持续下滑，随着沪伦比值修复，进 | | | | | 口矿亏损情况好转，国内炼厂对进口锌精矿接货意愿有所 | | | | | 提升，近期进口矿成交增多，但矿紧格局暂无改善，预计 | | | | | 矿端偏紧格局或将延续至明年一季度。据Polymetals | 宏观情绪偏弱，LME库存逐步修 | | | | Resources披露，Endeavor银锌矿其矿石提升和研磨作业于 | 复，加之国内需求端处于消费淡 | | | | 11月15日启动，继10月份首次成功发运锌精矿后，其精矿 | 季，锌价承压，短期或维持偏弱 整理；考虑TC持续下滑，原料 | | | | 的运输持续进行，为12 ...

有色金属周报-锌 原料与需求相搏弈，沪锌高位震荡 2025年11月10日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国参议院就结束政府"停摆"达成一致，流动性 | | | | | 风险或有所减弱，宏观避险情绪略有好转。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋松有所收紧。近期内外比价虽然有所修复，但 | | | | | 进口锌矿亏损仍在2,000元/金属吨左右，国内炼厂持续抢 | | | | | 购国产锌精矿，国内TC持续下滑，进口矿报价则较为混乱， | | | | | 部分贸易商继续下调TC报价。据SMM消息，贸易商与炼 | 在外盘及板块带动下，沪锌震荡 | | | | 厂成交了12月发运的Antamina锌精矿，成交TC为90美元/ | 上行，加之矿端有所收紧，TC | | | | 干吨左右，货量1万吨，近期另有部分富含锌矿成交于80- | 持续下滑，锌价下方支撑稳固， | | | | 90美元/干吨，货量 ...

Core Viewpoint - The steel industry in A-shares has seen significant stock price increases, but the financial performance of most companies is declining, with only a minority showing positive earnings forecasts for the first half of 2019 [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, the highest-performing steel stock in A-shares is Daye Special Steel, with a cumulative increase of over 50% year-to-date [1]. - Among the nine steel companies that have released mid-year earnings forecasts, only three are expected to report positive earnings, representing less than 40% [2]. Group 2: Cost Pressures - The steel industry is facing significant cost pressures due to soaring iron ore prices, which have increased by 83.52% since the beginning of the year [4]. - The average profit of member steel companies of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) dropped by 18.15% year-on-year, with total profits amounting to 855 billion yuan from January to May 2019 [6]. Group 3: Production and Demand - In June 2019, crude steel production reached 87.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 10%, while steel production was 107.1 million tons, up 12.6% year-on-year [6]. - The real estate sector, a major consumer of steel, saw a 10.9% year-on-year increase in development investment, totaling 61.609 billion yuan from January to June 2019 [7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The steel industry is entering a demand off-season, with consumption levels decreasing compared to previous periods, but there is potential for recovery in infrastructure investment due to policy support [9]. - The iron ore market is expected to enter a bottoming phase, with supply-side reforms and environmental regulations impacting production and pricing dynamics [9].