祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/12/8 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,175.00 0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,290.00 0.26% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 30.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - 25.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -49.15 -9.79 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -94.60 -3.10 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 15.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -15.00 -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -25.00 -20.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 44,508.00 19.36% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 44,944.00 -3.52% 成交持仓比 / 0.99 23.71% LME库存 吨 0.00% 243,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 16,078.00 -2.87% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 -0.35% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.61 0.61% SMM1#锌锭平 ...

2025/12/5 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,100.00 0.15% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,245.00 0.20% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -145.00 -10.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - 25.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -43.64 -1.19 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -90.60 -5.50 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -25.00 -10.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 10.00 -20.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 - -5.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 37,288.00 38.02% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 46,582.00 -0.10% 成交持仓比 / 0.80 38.15% LME库存 吨 0.00% 248,050.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 16,553.00 -0.46% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 0.00% 1,998.50 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.63 0.20% SMM1#锌锭平均价格 元/吨 22,920.00 0.88% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 22,865.00 0. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, improving the supply shortage. Thus, there is significant upward pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the back structure of LME zinc has weakened, reducing overseas structural risks. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the rebound of the SHFE - LME ratio. In the medium - term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract rose by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with small fluctuations in primary lead production. The operation rate of recycled lead refineries has recovered to over 50%, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is acceptable, increasing demand. However, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Continue to hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc main contract fell by 0.22%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased to 2,650 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of about 600,000 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1].

有色金属周报-锌 原料与需求相搏弈，沪锌高位震荡 2025年11月10日 研究所 祁玉蓉 从业资格号：F03100031 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0021060 TEL：010-8229 5006 摘要 | | 主要逻辑 | 本周观点 | 上周观点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | |  | 宏观：美国参议院就结束政府"停摆"达成一致，流动性 | | | | | 风险或有所减弱，宏观避险情绪略有好转。 | | | |  | 原料端：趋松有所收紧。近期内外比价虽然有所修复，但 | | | | | 进口锌矿亏损仍在2,000元/金属吨左右，国内炼厂持续抢 | | | | | 购国产锌精矿，国内TC持续下滑，进口矿报价则较为混乱， | | | | | 部分贸易商继续下调TC报价。据SMM消息，贸易商与炼 | 在外盘及板块带动下，沪锌震荡 | | | | 厂成交了12月发运的Antamina锌精矿，成交TC为90美元/ | 上行，加之矿端有所收紧，TC | | | | 干吨左右，货量1万吨，近期另有部分富含锌矿成交于80- | 持续下滑，锌价下方支撑稳固， | | | | 90美元/干吨，货量 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price is under pressure and may oscillate downward due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and good refinery profits with an open import window [1]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has some support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. The domestic mine supply pattern has tightened, and the terminal demand is weak. The Fed's hawkish stance on interest - rate cuts also suppresses the zinc price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat, and the Shanghai lead futures main - contract closed 0.17% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) price was unchanged at $2,025/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio rose 0.17% to 8.60 [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in production. The supply of secondary lead has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises' operations are stable, with an increase in demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.32%, and the Shanghai zinc futures main - contract rose 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio rose 0.94% to 7.40 [1]. - **Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc - ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc - concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month [1]. - **Demand**: There is no significant improvement in demand. The zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London price ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. **Other Information** - In Shandong's Binzhou, the subsequent vehicle trade - in subsidy activity will implement a "qualification first, subsidy application later" policy from November 5 to December 31, 2025 [1]. - In Guangdong's Shaoguan, the Phase I mining project for resource integration at the Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started, with a total investment of 830 million yuan and expected annual revenue increase of over 400 million yuan after reaching full production [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].