祁玉蓉（F03100031, Z0021060），联系电话：010-8229 5006 2025/12/8 单位 今值 变动 近期趋势 SMM1#铅锭平均价格 元/吨 17,175.00 0.44% 期货主力合约收盘价 元/吨 17,290.00 0.26% 沪铅基差 元/吨 -115.00 30.00 升贴水-上海 元/吨 - 25.00 升贴水-LME 0-3 美元/吨 -49.15 -9.79 升贴水-LME 3-15 美元/吨 -94.60 -3.10 沪铅近月-沪铅连一 元/吨 -10.00 15.00 沪铅连一-沪铅连二 元/吨 -15.00 -25.00 沪铅连二-沪铅连三 元/吨 -25.00 -20.00 期货活跃合约成交量 手 44,508.00 19.36% 期货活跃合约持仓量 手 44,944.00 -3.52% 成交持仓比 / 0.99 23.71% LME库存 吨 0.00% 243,550.00 沪铅仓单库存 吨 16,078.00 -2.87% LME3个月铅期货收盘价（电子盘） 美元/吨 2,009.00 -0.35% 沪伦铅价比值 / 8.61 0.61% SMM1#锌锭平 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report Core Views - **Lead**: SMM research shows that the supply of raw materials for recycled lead smelters has tightened recently, and some smelters may reduce production due to raw material shortages. With improved macro - sentiment, the lead price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. The trading strategy is to try long positions at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: The supply of zinc concentrate is tightening, and the treatment charge is likely to decline. Although the supply of zinc ingots is currently stable, the demand is weak. The zinc price is expected to be mainly range - bound, and the trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price and Market Data - **Lead**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots is 17,100 yuan/ton, up 0.15%; the futures main contract closing price is 17,245 yuan/ton, up 0.20%. The LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic) is 1,998.50 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 37,288 lots, up 38.02%, and the open interest is 46,582 lots, down 0.10%. The LME inventory is 248,050 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory is 16,553 tons, down 0.46% [1]. - **Zinc**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots is 22,920 yuan/ton, up 0.88%; the futures main contract closing price is 22,865 yuan/ton, up 0.48%. The LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic) is 3,062 dollars/ton, with no change. The trading volume of the active futures contract is 164,347 lots, up 54.44%, and the open interest is 105,684 lots, up 1.05%. The LME inventory is 54,325 tons, with no change, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory is 62,028 tons, down 2.47% [1]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **Lead**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and the treatment charge is likely to rise. The start - up rate of primary lead and recycled lead has declined, and the inventory of primary lead has increased while that of recycled lead has decreased. The consumption of electric bicycle batteries is weakening, while the automobile battery market is approaching the traditional replacement peak season [1]. - **Zinc**: Refineries are actively purchasing domestic zinc concentrates, and the domestic supply of concentrates is tight, with the treatment charge expected to decline. The refinery's profit and production enthusiasm have improved, and the monthly output is expected to be around 600,000 tons. The demand side is still weak [1]. 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Lead**: Try to go long at low prices [1]. - **Zinc**: Wait and see [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For lead, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened. Meanwhile, refinery profits are good, and the import window is open, improving the supply shortage. Thus, there is significant upward pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to continue holding previous short positions [1]. - For zinc, the back structure of LME zinc has weakened, reducing overseas structural risks. Zinc prices lack continuous upward momentum. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities brought by the rebound of the SHFE - LME ratio. In the medium - term, the mine end will tighten in the fourth quarter, and TC is likely to fall, which may affect the supply side and provide some support for zinc prices. It is advisable to wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots increased by 0.29% compared to the previous day, and the closing price of the SHFE lead main contract rose by 0.49% [1]. - **Market Conditions**: The import of lead concentrates has no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some refineries have maintenance plans, with small fluctuations in primary lead production. The operation rate of recycled lead refineries has recovered to over 50%, increasing supply. The terminal market has improved, and the operation rate of lead - acid battery enterprises is acceptable, increasing demand. However, due to high lead prices, downstream purchasing enthusiasm has weakened [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Continue to hold previous short positions [1]. Zinc - **Price Changes**: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.31% compared to the previous day, and the SHFE zinc main contract fell by 0.22%. The premium of zinc ingots in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Guangdong increased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Refineries have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc concentrate processing fees decreased to 2,650 yuan/metal ton last week, and the import zinc ore processing fee index decreased to 98.37 US dollars/dry ton. Refinery profits and production enthusiasm have improved, with an expected monthly output of about 600,000 tons. The demand side has not improved significantly, and the zinc ingot export window may open [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for opportunities to go long after a short - term correction [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, zinc prices are supported by a tightened ore end and a continuous decline in TC, but the weak domestic consumption and开工 decline in some areas due to environmental protection limit the upside space of zinc prices. The zinc prices may face pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to the resistance level of 23,000 yuan/ton [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 1.62% to 22,570 yuan/ton; Shanghai zinc main contract closing price rose 1.63% to 22,720 yuan/ton; LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) rose 0.54% to 3,066.5 US dollars/ton [12] 3.2 Raw Material Side 3.2.1 Zinc Concentrate Port Inventory - As of November 7, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 160,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30,000 tons. The total inventory of 7 ports was 348,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 25,500 tons [29] 3.2.2 Zinc Concentrate Profit - As of November 6, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 5,094 yuan/metal ton. In September, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 505,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.15% and a year - on - year increase of 24.94%. From January to September, the cumulative import volume was 4.0081 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 40.49% [36] 3.2.3 Domestic TC and Imported TC - Both domestic TC and imported TC continued to decline. The domestic zinc concentrate processing fee on November 7, 2025, was 2,650 yuan/metal ton, and the imported index was 98.37 US dollars/dry ton [37][40] 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 Refined Zinc Production - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises continued to decline. As of November 6, the production profit was - 1,164 yuan/ton. It is expected that the refined zinc production in October will be 617,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85% [46] 3.3.2 Refined Zinc Import - The import profit window was closed. As of November 7, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,221.66 yuan/ton. From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 258,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 61,600 tons [49] 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise start - up rate decreased by 2.41 percentage points to 55.13%. Raw material inventory increased, and finished product inventory decreased [55][58] 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The price of die - casting zinc alloy increased. The start - up rate decreased by 1.55 percentage points to 50.95%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased [64][67][70] 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The price of zinc oxide increased. The start - up rate decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 57.63%. Raw material inventory decreased, and finished product inventory increased slightly [76][79][82] 3.5 Inventory 3.5.1 Domestic Inventory - As of November 6, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 150,100 tons, and the bonded area inventory was 38,000 tons, both showing a downward trend [88] 3.5.2 Exchange Inventory - As of November 7, the SHFE inventory was 100,200 tons, showing a decline; as of November 6, the LME inventory was 34,900 tons, showing a trend of first decline and then increase [91]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **Lead**: The lead price is under pressure and may oscillate downward due to weakening downstream purchasing enthusiasm at high prices, improved supply tightness, and good refinery profits with an open import window [1]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has some support at the bottom but limited upward momentum. The domestic mine supply pattern has tightened, and the terminal demand is weak. The Fed's hawkish stance on interest - rate cuts also suppresses the zinc price [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 lead ingot average price remained flat, and the Shanghai lead futures main - contract closed 0.17% higher than the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) price was unchanged at $2,025/ton, and the Shanghai - London lead price ratio rose 0.17% to 8.60 [1]. - **Supply**: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead refineries have maintenance plans, with a slight fluctuation in production. The supply of secondary lead has increased as previously - shut - down refineries resume production [1]. - **Demand**: The terminal market has improved, and lead - acid battery enterprises' operations are stable, with an increase in demand [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold existing short positions [1]. **Zinc Market** - **Prices**: The SMM1 zinc ingot average price rose 0.32%, and the Shanghai zinc futures main - contract rose 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio rose 0.94% to 7.40 [1]. - **Supply**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc - ore processing fees are rising. Domestic zinc - concentrate processing fees may continue to decline in October. Refinery production is expected to remain around 600,000 tons per month [1]. - **Demand**: There is no significant improvement in demand. The zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London price ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [1]. **Other Information** - In Shandong's Binzhou, the subsequent vehicle trade - in subsidy activity will implement a "qualification first, subsidy application later" policy from November 5 to December 31, 2025 [1]. - In Guangdong's Shaoguan, the Phase I mining project for resource integration at the Fankou Lead - Zinc Mine started, with a total investment of 830 million yuan and expected annual revenue increase of over 400 million yuan after reaching full production [1].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Lead**: The supply - tight pattern has improved, with some demand released in advance in September. Lead ingot inventory accumulation pressure is high, and prices may be under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Zinc**: The fundamental situation of Shanghai zinc continues to be weak with strong supply and weak demand. Coupled with macro - disturbances, prices are under pressure. With the continuous depletion of LME zinc inventory and the deepening of the LME 0 - 3 back structure, be vigilant against overseas structural risks. It is also recommended to wait and see [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Lead** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 lead ingot average price increased by 0.30% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai lead closed down 0.06% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,971.50 per ton, down 0.73%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.67, up 0.68% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. However, it has not significantly affected refinery operations. Some refineries have maintenance plans, and the operation of primary lead refineries fluctuates slightly. The production of some previously - shut - down secondary lead refineries has resumed, increasing supply. Terminal demand has not improved significantly, and the peak - season effect is not obvious [1]. - **Industry News**: A medium - large secondary lead refinery in Central China has gradually resumed production, with a daily refined lead output of 300 tons. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44.09 per ton, and the open interest increased by 10,976 to 152,739 lots [1]. **Zinc** - **Price and Market Data**: SMM1 zinc ingot average price decreased by 0.41% compared with the previous day, and the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed down 0.34% from the previous day. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,968 per ton, up 0.94%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.39, down 1.26% [1]. - **Fundamentals**: Refineries have sufficient raw material stocks, and zinc concentrate processing fees are rising. Affected by the low internal - external price ratio, domestic zinc concentrate is more favored by refineries. The profit and production enthusiasm of refineries have improved, and production is increasing. Demand has not improved significantly, but the zinc ingot export window may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - **Industry News**: Guatemala terminated the anti - dumping investigation on galvanized sheets from China. A zinc mine in North China bid again this week, with the winning bid price at 3,850 yuan per metal ton (including 20 - 80 split), a decrease of 650 yuan per metal ton compared with the previous period. On October 15, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of $139.83 per ton, and the open interest increased by 4,285 to 223,801 lots [1]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - For lead, the supply - tight situation has improved, some demand was released in September, and there is a large inventory build - up pressure. With the resurgence of tariff disturbances, lead prices may face pressure again. The trading strategy is to wait and see [1]. - For zinc, overseas LME zinc inventories are at an absolute low, and the LME 0 - 3 back structure deepens, providing some support for zinc prices. However, the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc remain weak, and with the resurgence of tariff disturbances and strong macro - risk aversion sentiment, non - ferrous metals may face pressure again. The trading strategy is also to wait and see [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,925 yuan/ton, up 0.74% [1]. - Shanghai lead futures main contract closed at 17,140 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [1]. - Shanghai lead basis was - 215 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 lead premium was - 75.20 dollars/ton, with a change of - 6.90 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 36,308 hands, down 9.68%; open interest was 44,795 hands, up 9.05%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 0.81, down 17.18% [1]. - LME lead inventory was 237,000 tons, unchanged; Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory was 30,068 tons, unchanged [1]. - LME 3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at 2,014.50 dollars/ton, down 0.30%; Shanghai - London lead price ratio was 8.51, up 0.44% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, SMM primary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 68.47%, unchanged; secondary lead enterprise weekly operating rate was 34%, up 5.6 percentage points; lead - acid battery enterprise weekly operating rate was 61.71%, up 6.58 percentage points [1]. - A Hunan electrolytic lead smelter planned a 11 - day production maintenance in October, with an expected reduction of 2,000 - 2,400 tons in October electrolytic lead output [1]. Zinc - **Price and Market Data** - SMM1 zinc ingot average price was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 0.72% [1]. - Shanghai zinc futures main contract closed at 22,270 yuan/ton, down 0.20% [1]. - Shanghai zinc basis was - 40 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton [1]. - LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, up 33.65 [1]. - Futures active contract volume was 174,778 hands, up 27.36%; open interest was 106,534 hands, down 5.93%; volume - to - open - interest ratio was 1.64, up 35.39% [1]. - LME zinc inventory was 37,950 tons, unchanged; Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory was 60,644 tons, up 3.02% [1]. - LME 3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at 2,984.50 dollars/ton, down 0.98%; Shanghai - London zinc price ratio was 7.46, up 0.78% [1]. - **Industry News** - From October 2nd to 9th, galvanized enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.82%, down 1.83 percentage points; die - cast zinc alloy enterprise weekly operating rate was 46.51%, down 0.35 percentage points; zinc oxide enterprise weekly operating rate was 56.08%, down 1.24 percentage points [1]. - On October 10th, LME 0 - 3 zinc premium was 100.45 dollars/ton, and open interest was 220,239 hands, down 54 hands [1].