来源：市场资讯 （来源：安泰科） 一、进口货源集中到港，锌精矿进口量环比大幅增加 2025年11月，中国进口精锌1.8万吨，同比下降48.1%，环比下降2.9%； 1-11月累计进口29.5万吨，同比 下降28.7%。从精锌进口结构来看，0#锌、2#锌进口累计同比分别下降59.4%、38.9%，1#锌进口累计同 比增加53.8%。 分国别看，1-11月精锌进口主要来自哈萨克斯坦、澳大利亚和印度，进口量占总进口的81.1%，其中， 澳大利亚和印度的进口量分别为4.7万吨和1.8万吨，降幅分别为62.0%和8.9%，哈萨克斯坦进口量增加 30.2%至17.4万吨。 精锌现货出口窗口持续打开。11月精锌出口量为4.3万吨，环比上涨402.6%，1-11月精锌累计出口量为 6.7万吨，同比增加437.5%。 主要流向新加坡、中国香港、中国台湾和越南等地区，四地出口量占据合计出口量的81%。其中向新加 坡地区出口2.1万吨，向中国香港地区出口0.7万吨，向中国台湾地区出口1.9万吨，向越南地区出口0.8万 吨。 当前比值小幅回升至7.5左右，精锌出口窗口关闭，但仍有部分在途货物，预计12月精锌的出口量仍保 持较高水平。 ...

Group 1 - In March 2024, strong expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in June and favorable domestic policy expectations led to a rise in zinc prices, with the main contract reaching a two-year high of 25,365 yuan/ton [1] - By the second quarter of 2024, the trading logic shifted from interest rate cuts to concerns about secondary inflation in Europe and the U.S., causing further increases in zinc prices [1] - The volatility in zinc prices significantly increased operational risks for companies, making futures hedging essential [1] Group 2 - As of the end of March 2024, despite a rapid increase in zinc prices, downstream demand did not improve significantly, leading to a continuous accumulation of social inventory [2] - From July 2024, the spot premium in South China began to rise, peaking at 240 yuan/ton in mid-September before falling back to 15 yuan/ton [2] - The fluctuation of basis affects the effectiveness of futures hedging, making it crucial for companies to determine the basis accurately [2] Group 3 - In 2023, several overseas mines faced production halts, exacerbating the tight supply of zinc concentrate and leading to a decline in processing fees [3] - The supply issues for zinc concentrate worsened in 2024, resulting in a significant reduction in smelting profits and subsequent production cuts by smelters [3] Group 4 - A supply chain management company established in April 2023 focuses on zinc concentrate and zinc ingot procurement and sales, facing challenges due to price volatility [6] - The company engages in high-frequency trading to improve capital turnover and mitigate risks associated with price fluctuations [6] Group 5 - A futures company developed a hedging strategy for the supply chain company, prioritizing spot purchases and short futures when the basis is negative, and pre-selling spot and long futures when the basis is positive [7] - This strategy effectively hedges against single-sided risks in spot trading while capturing basis profits [7] Group 6 - On October 14, 2024, the supply chain company purchased 30 tons of spot zinc at an average price of 24,953 yuan/ton and sold futures at an average price of 25,250 yuan/ton, resulting in a total profit of 4,560 yuan [8] - On October 28, 2024, the company pre-sold 30 tons of zinc ingots at an average price of 24,860 yuan/ton and established long futures, achieving a total profit of 11,010 yuan [8] Group 7 - The case study illustrates that companies should not mechanically follow procurement and sales plans but should anticipate spot premiums or basis changes to enhance hedging effectiveness and increase trade profits [9]