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宏观经济点评:有色与中下游制造带动PPI同比回升
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-11-09 14:42
Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -0.3%[15] - The core CPI month-on-month rose to 0.2%, recovering from a seasonal low in September[6] - The food CPI month-on-month growth narrowed to +0.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year improved to -2.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of -2.3%[27] - The PPI month-on-month returned to positive territory at 0.1%, marking the first increase in 2025[27] - Input factors and domestic high-end manufacturing reduced their drag on PPI year-on-year by 0.4 percentage points each[30] Group 3: Future Predictions - November CPI is expected to rise to approximately 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of around 0.4%[34] - November PPI is anticipated to decline year-on-year, with an average forecast of -2.6% for 2025[35] - The CPI-PPI year-on-year differential is projected to widen in November, indicating diverging inflation trends[36]