3 October 2025 | 9:04PM EDT Economics Research US ECONOMICS ANALYST What Data to Watch During the Government Shutdown (Walker/Phillips) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Goldman Sachs US Economics Analyst What Data to Watch During the Government Shutdown Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sac ...

有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos周五在社交媒体X发文，批评美国总统特 朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特(Kevin Hassett)最近为特朗普质疑美联储独立性辩护的言论。 Timiraos指出，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特最近接受媒体采访时一边为美联储的独立性辩护，称 其"毋庸置疑重要"，一边却为特朗普质疑美联储独立性的行为辩解，认为有党派偏向性的一方是美联 储。他的部分指责甚至和他本人之前的说辞自相矛盾。 哈塞特的第二项指控是，直到拜登提名鲍威尔继续担任美联储主席后，美联储才开始收紧货币政策。鲍 威尔连任的任命于2021年11月22日宣布，拜登在11月19日告知鲍威尔这一决定。 Timiraos认为，鉴于哈塞特是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他对美联储的这种指责相当不妥。Timiraos 在推文中质疑："这种指控的证据是什么?" 这一争议再次凸显了美联储独立性这一敏感话题在特朗普政府内部的复杂立场，也反映出市场对未来货 币政策走向的关注。 质疑通胀期间美联储表现 据Timiraos总结，此次采访中，哈塞特提出的第一项指控是，美联储在2021年通胀预测上的失误证明了 其有党派倾向性 ...

有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos周五在社交媒体X发文，批评美国总统特 朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）最近为特朗普质疑美联储独立性辩护的言论。 Timiraos指出，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特最近接受媒体采访时一边为美联储的独立性辩护，称 其"毋庸置疑重要"，一边却为特朗普质疑美联储独立性的行为辩解，认为有党派偏向性的一方是美联 储。他的部分指责甚至和他本人之前的说辞自相矛盾。 Timiraos认为，鉴于哈塞特是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他对美联储的这种指责相当不妥。Timiraos 在推文中质疑："这种指控的证据是什么？" 对此，Timiraos反驳称，关于收紧货币政策的定义固然有争论，可是，美联储在当月早些时候、即2021 年11月3日就宣布，将开始减少购买债券、所谓的Taper。拜登次日同鲍威尔和Brainard会面。这表明取 消宽松政策的时机更多是同时发生的，而非顺序发生。 选前降息动机遭质疑 然而，Timiraos指出了一个"耐人寻味的细节"：在拜登执政期间，六名美联储理事中有五人都是特朗普 第一个总统任期时任命的，包括现任美联储主席鲍威 ...

有"新美联储通讯社"之称的资深美联储报道记者Nick Timiraos周五在社交媒体X发文，批评美国总统特 朗普的首席经济顾问哈塞特（Kevin Hassett）最近为特朗普质疑美联储独立性辩护的言论。 哈塞特的第二项指控是，直到拜登提名鲍威尔继续担任美联储主席后，美联储才开始收紧货币政策。鲍 威尔连任的任命于2021年11月22日宣布，拜登在11月19日告知鲍威尔这一决定。 Timiraos指出，白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特在最近接受媒体采访时，一边为美联储的独立性辩护， 称其"毋庸置疑重要"，同时却又为特朗普质疑美联储独立性的行为辩解，认为有党派偏向性的一方是美 联储。他的部分指责甚至和他本人之前的说辞自相矛盾。 Timiraos认为，鉴于哈塞特是下任美联储主席的热门人选，他对美联储的这种指责相当不妥。Timiraos 在推文中质疑："这种指控的证据是什么？" 这一争议再次凸显了美联储独立性这一敏感话题在特朗普政府内部的复杂立场，也反映出市场对未来货 币政策走向的关注。 质疑通胀期间美联储表现 据Timiraos总结，此次采访中，哈塞特提出的第一项指控是，美联储在2021年通胀预测上的失误证明了 其有党派 ...

日本央行行长植田和男此前强调，在决定何时恢复加息时，需要仔细评估美国关税对日本经济和工资前 景的预期影响。Adachi周三表示，基于这种以风险为导向的方式，日本央行可能会暂缓加息，直到明年 3月左右，届时将更清楚地了解关税造成的冲击是否会影响明年的工资谈判。 但他同时指出，不能排除日本央行在10月的下一次会议上加息的可能性，因为第二季度超出预期的经济 增长可能会推高日本央行的增长预测，并使通胀保持在2%的目标附近。 Adachi在采访中表示："再加息25个基点对经济增长几乎没有损害，因为借贷成本仍将低于被认为对经 济呈中性的水平。" 音频由扣子空间生成 日本央行前审议委员Seiji Adachi在接受路透社采访时表示，日本央行很可能会在下一次季度评估中上调 其经济和通胀预测，这可能为10月加息铺平道路。 AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 市场普遍认为，日本央行在10月29日至30日举行的下一次政策会议上有大约50%的加息可能性，届时日 本央行还将发布新的季度经济增长和通胀预测。 上周，日本央行将利率维持在0.5%不变，但有两名审议委员对此持异议，提议将利率上调至0.75%。此 举推高了日本国债收益率，市场 ...

Core Insights - The Bank of Spain forecasts a quarter-on-quarter GDP growth of 0.6% to 0.7% for the third quarter, indicating a sustained robust expansion trend [1] - The GDP growth forecast for 2025 has been revised upward from 2.4% to 2.6%, while the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 remain unchanged at 1.8% and 1.7% respectively [1] - The inflation rate forecast for 2025 has been slightly increased to 2.5%, up from the previous estimate of 2.4%, although it remains lower than the actual inflation rate of 2.9% in 2024, suggesting a gradual easing of overall inflationary pressures [1] - The fiscal situation shows positive improvement, with the forecast for the government budget deficit as a percentage of GDP for 2025 revised down from 2.8% to 2.5%, indicating strengthened fiscal discipline and a trend towards a more stable fiscal situation [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is expected to maintain its interest rate at 0.5% during the upcoming monetary policy meeting, with a potential upward revision of inflation forecasts for the current fiscal year due to improved US-Japan trade uncertainties [1][14]. Group 1: Interest Rate Expectations - Market pricing indicates an approximately 80% chance of an interest rate hike by the end of the year, with October emerging as a favored time for the next increase [2][9]. - Following the US-Japan trade agreement, expectations for a rate hike have significantly rebounded, with a 65% probability for the October meeting and 80% for December [5][10]. - Despite the increased expectations, some analysts, including Goldman Sachs, caution that the Bank of Japan may adopt a wait-and-see approach due to ongoing negotiations and the absence of urgent inflationary pressures [8][9]. Group 2: US-Japan Trade Agreement - The US-Japan trade agreement has notably reduced uncertainties, with the US agreeing to impose a 15% tariff on Japanese goods, including automobiles, down from a previous 25% [3][4]. - Japan has committed to establishing a fund of up to $550 billion for direct investment in the US as part of the trade deal [3]. Group 3: Inflation Outlook - The Bank of Japan is likely to revise its short-term inflation forecast upward, anticipating a core CPI increase from 2.2% to approximately 2.5% for the fiscal year 2025 due to rising food prices [15][16]. - Despite the short-term adjustments, the medium-term inflation trajectory is expected to remain stable, with projections indicating a return to below 2% by the fiscal year 2026 [16]. Group 4: Bond Market Dynamics - Political uncertainties in Japan are currently pushing up long-term yields, but these premiums are expected to gradually ease as political clarity improves [17][18]. - The 10-year Japanese government bonds remain attractive, with expected holding and rolling yields surpassing capital losses, even with anticipated interest rate hikes [18].

纽约梅隆经济学家指出，美联储启动降息需要同时满足以下三个关键条件：首先，就业市场需要显示出 疲软的迹象；其次，通胀率确定回归到目标路径上；最后，决策层对于上述两点判断需要具备充分的信 心。如果美国未来一段时间内经济数据持续表现不佳，那么任何降息行动都将被视为一种政策校准措 施。这不仅反映了对当前经济扩张力度的重新评估，也揭示了决策层可能低估了关税对通胀传导效应的 事实。 摩根士丹利预计美联储在本年度不会进行降息，但分析师们也注意到经济状况的变化有可能导致实际政 策路径与预期产生偏离。当前市场的注意力集中在美联储会议后的声明上，特别是关于通胀和经济前景 的部分，以此来推测未来货币政策的方向。 桥水联合基金联合创始人表示，美国及其他地区政府债务上升带来的宏观经济风险尚未完全体现在市场 定价中，这可能导致市场大幅下跌。美国政府支出超出收入40%，累计债务达到年收入的6倍。美国政 府通过发行更多债务和"央行（美联储）印钞"来偿还债务，这种做法可能引发市场恐慌，并可能导致新 一轮大规模量化宽松或政府接管美联储，从而引发市场崩盘。 研究机构BMI下调了对2025年的通胀预测，从原先的2.1%下调至1.9%，这是由于5月份 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 14, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.06% to 781.4 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 2.11% to 9207 yuan/kg [5]. - Trump's "Reciprocal Tariffs 2.0" boosts the demand for precious metals and stimulates their prices. The silver price has risen strongly due to factors such as the technical breakthrough and the expected recovery of overseas manufacturing, with the COMEX silver breaking through $39 per ounce and the Shanghai silver main contract breaking through 9200 yuan/kg [5]. - In the short - term, tariff risks may support the precious metals prices to remain strong, especially silver. In the long - term, considering the background of trade war, the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut, global geopolitical uncertainties, and central bank gold purchases, the long - term upward trend of gold remains unchanged, and the strategy of buying on dips is recommended [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: On July 14, 2025, London gold spot was $3367.33 per ounce, London silver spot was $38.90 per ounce, COMEX gold was $3380.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver was $39.31 per ounce. Compared with July 11, gold prices rose by about 1.1% and silver prices rose by 3.5% - 4.3%. The AU2508 contract was 778.98 yuan/gram, and the AG2508 contract was 9179 yuan/kg, with increases of 1.0% - 1.8% [5]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: The gold TD - SHFE active price spread on July 14 was - 2.18 yuan/gram, with a 18.5% change compared to July 11. The silver TD - SHFE active price spread was - 3 yuan/kg, with a - 40.0% change. The gold and silver price ratios also had corresponding changes [5]. Position Data - **ETF and COMEX Positions**: As of July 11, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR held 947.64 tons, with a - 0.12% change compared to July 10. The silver ETF - SLV held 14758.51984 tons, with a - 0.88% change. COMEX non - commercial long and short positions of gold and silver also had different degrees of changes [5]. Inventory Data - **SHFE and COMEX Inventories**: On July 14, 2025, SHFE gold inventory was 28857 kg, a 17.38% increase compared to July 11. SHFE silver inventory was 1223982 kg, a - 6.11% decrease. COMEX gold and silver inventories also had slight decreases [5]. Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - **Exchange Rates and Indexes**: On July 14, 2025, the dollar/yuan central parity rate was 7.15, with a 0.02% change compared to July 11. The dollar index was 97.87, with a 0.29% increase. The yields of 2 - year and 10 - year US Treasuries also increased, and the VIX increased by 3.93% [5].

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan is considering raising its inflation forecast during the policy meeting on July 31, primarily due to rising food and energy prices, with a specific focus on the significant increase in rice prices [1][4] - The current fiscal year's inflation forecast may be adjusted from 2.2%, reflecting the unexpected surge in food prices, particularly rice, which has doubled in the past year [4] - The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have also contributed to rising oil prices, providing further justification for the potential adjustment in inflation forecasts [4] Group 2 - Market observers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% despite the possible upward revision of short-term inflation forecasts [4] - The Bank of Japan does not anticipate making significant adjustments to the overall economic and inflation outlook, believing that price trends will align with sustainable inflation targets in the latter half of the three-year outlook period ending March 2028 [4] - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the impact of U.S. President Trump's tariff policies on upcoming data to determine the timing of future interest rate hikes [4][5] Group 3 - The Bank of Japan will not consider the impact of the recently announced 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean products in its forecasts, as trade negotiations are ongoing and tariff levels may change [5] - The Bank of Japan emphasizes the need to observe the actual data to assess the specific effects of tariff policies, which will be crucial for future monetary policy decisions [5]