韩国国家智库KDI上调韩国GDP和通胀预测，预计2026年韩国GDP增长率为1.9%，高于此前的1.8%，预 计2026年通胀率平均为2.1%，高于此前预期的2.0%。 ...

此前花旗、星展集团及摩根资产管理等多家机构亦持类似观点，认为在全球不确定性犹存、产出缺口接 近零的背景下，金管局倾向于保留政策灵活性，避免过早行动。 （文章来源：新华财经） 凯投宏观亚洲经济学家Shivaan Tandon表示，金管局在1月29日宣布连续第三次维持名义有效汇率 （NEER）政策区间的斜率、宽度及中点不变，同时将2026年核心与总体通胀预测区间从原先的0.5%– 1.5%上调至1%–2%。然而，这一调整更多反映短期物价压力，而非预示即将收紧政策。 Tandon进一步指出，支撑金管局"按兵不动"立场的关键因素包括：新加坡劳动力市场虽目前具弹性，但 近期强劲表现恐难持续；内需增长亦可能逐步放缓。若经济出现适度降温且通胀保持受控，维持现有政 策框架将成为合理选择。 新华财经北京1月29日电凯投宏观（Capital Economics）最新分析认为，新加坡金融管理局（MAS）在 2026年全年维持现行货币政策不变的可能性较大。尽管该央行近期措辞略显鹰派，并已上调对2026年通 胀的预测，但其预测值仍显示核心与总体通胀将处于或低于政策目标区间。 ...

英国央行承认，多年来其对通胀的预测一直存在偏差。英国央行官员表示，自2022年以来，有关薪资增 长和通胀的预测"屡次被证明过于保守"。这份央行首份预测评估报告的结论，将加剧外界的批评声音。 批评者认为，在俄罗斯对乌克兰发起特别军事行动后，能源价格大幅飙升，而以行长贝利为首的央行官 员未能及时作出应对。贝利曾于2023年承认，英国央行 "有重大教训需要汲取"。该评估报告指出，自 2021年年中以来，实际通胀率比英国央行的预测值高出近两个百分点，同期薪资增长均值也比预测值高 出近三个百分点。 ...

日本央行维持利率不变后，日元延续跌势，策略师们普遍认为央行释放的鹰派信号力度不足以扭转日元疲软态势。市场焦点已转向4月可能的加息 行动，但在美联储会议前，投资者对日元的观望情绪浓厚。 1月23日，日本央行如期维持基准利率在三十年高位不变，决议公布后日元对美元一度跌0.2%至158.74。央行正在评估上月加息对经济的影响。 决议略显鹰派，日元仍承压 日本央行此次维持利率不变符合市场预期，但决议声明的细节变化引发策略师们对政策走向的解读。 汇丰控股首席亚洲经济学家Frederic Neumann表示，日央行上调通胀预测暗示官员立场的鹰派倾斜。通过提高通胀预期，货币政策官员表达了对物 价前景的更大信心，这反过来应会强化进一步加息的理由。他指出，日本债券市场和汇率将受益于更强的货币政策锚定，日央行的鹰派倾斜将大 大有助于遏制波动性。 野村证券外汇策略师Yujiro Goto认为，日央行货币政策会议的沟通方式意在传递对4月加息的意识。在此次会议前，市场已完全消化了7月前的加 息预期。尽管决议显示鹰派，但在新闻发布会前，日元贬值压力仍在酝酿。 Minato Bank策略师Shogo Karitani指出，声明中增加了汇率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's economic outlook indicates a slight acceleration in real GDP growth by 2028, supported by improved financial market conditions and enhanced potential output growth [1] Group 1: GDP Growth Projections - Real GDP growth is expected to be above potential growth rates by 2028, primarily due to diminishing negative impacts from high tariffs and continued support from fiscal policy and financial market conditions [1] - The forecast for GDP growth in 2025 and 2026 is slightly lower than the predictions made in October, while the projections for 2027 and 2028 remain consistent with previous estimates [1] Group 2: Unemployment Rate Expectations - The unemployment rate is anticipated to gradually decline after this year, reaching a level slightly below the natural rate estimated by staff by 2027 [1] Group 3: Inflation Forecasts - Staff projections for inflation in 2025 and 2026 are slightly lower compared to the forecasts presented in October, while the inflation outlook for 2027 and 2028 aligns with earlier predictions [1]

随着欧洲央行决策者愈发坚定地认为当前货币政策处于"良好位置"，市场情绪出现显著逆转，交易员已 开始通过定价反映该行在2026年重启加息的可能性，这与此前普遍的降息预期形成鲜明对比。 下周四的欧洲央行会议将成为市场验证这一逻辑的关键节点。据路透12日报道，尽管市场普遍预计欧洲 央行将连续第四次将关键利率维持在2%不变，但投资者关注的焦点已从降息转向未来的紧缩路径。据 彭博的一项调查，超过60%的受访经济学家现在预测欧央行的下一次利率调整将是向上的，而此前持有 这一观点的比例仅为三分之一。 与此同时，大西洋彼岸的美联储刚刚宣布降息25个基点。据华尔街见闻此前文章，高盛及华尔街多家投 行警告称，这种政策分化——美联储"向左"宽松，欧央行"向右"紧缩——预计将在2026年前后通过汇率 市场显现关键影响。由于其他央行维持紧缩倾向，美元面临的贬值压力正成为市场焦点，这可能导致欧 元被动升值，进而成为影响欧洲央行未来决策的外部变量。 投资者正密切关注下周会议释放的信号，以寻找是否有理由维持加息押注。路透指出，除利率决议外， 本次会议还面临关于通胀预测、政策路径、地缘政治影响及人事变动等五大关键问题。 关于明年及更长远的政策 ...

通胀走势基本符合前期预测。2026年商品、食品及医疗保健价格将面临进一步上行压力，而房价则承受下行压 力。我们维持整体通胀预测不变：2025年2.8%，2026年2.5%（此前为2.6%），2027年2.4%。核心通胀率预测值 为：2025年3.0%（维持不变）、2026年2.8%（维持不变）、2027年2.6%。 尽管劳动力市场出现降温迹象，美国经济增长仍保持相对稳健。我们预计在财政和货币政策支持下，环比增长将 在2026年恢复，但从结构上看，人口结构正日益限制经济生产能力的进一步扩张。 鉴于贸易战对经济增长的影响小于预期，我们将2025年GDP增长预测从1.6%上调至1.8%，2026年预测从1.4%上调 至1.9%。预计2027年经济增长将趋于平稳，维持在1.7%的较低趋势增速。 预计美联储将于12月、3月及6月各降息25个基点（此前预测为1月、4月和7月），随后在2026年剩余时间及2027年 维持3.00-3.25%的终点利率水平。前景风险呈均衡态势。若私人消费突然放缓，可能促使美联储重启更激进的降 息周期；但持续的财政宽松政策也可能迫使美联储将利率维持在高于我们预期的结构性高位。 ...

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the CPI year-on-year increased to 0.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous value of -0.3%[15] - The core CPI month-on-month rose to 0.2%, recovering from a seasonal low in September[6] - The food CPI month-on-month growth narrowed to +0.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value[5] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The PPI year-on-year improved to -2.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value of -2.3%[27] - The PPI month-on-month returned to positive territory at 0.1%, marking the first increase in 2025[27] - Input factors and domestic high-end manufacturing reduced their drag on PPI year-on-year by 0.4 percentage points each[30] Group 3: Future Predictions - November CPI is expected to rise to approximately 1.2% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of around 0.4%[34] - November PPI is anticipated to decline year-on-year, with an average forecast of -2.6% for 2025[35] - The CPI-PPI year-on-year differential is projected to widen in November, indicating diverging inflation trends[36]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's decision to maintain its policy interest rate has reinforced market expectations for a cautious approach to monetary tightening under Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's leadership [1][2] - The outcome of the monetary policy meeting, with only two board members supporting a rate hike, is interpreted as a dovish signal, leading to a depreciation of the yen and support for Japanese government bonds [1][3] - Analysts believe that the likelihood of a rate hike before 2026 is low, given the Bank of Japan's stable inflation forecasts and voting results [1] Group 2 - Strategists from Standard Chartered and ANZ Bank emphasize that the Bank of Japan's cautious stance on monetary policy normalization may keep the yen below the 150 level against the dollar [2] - The market is closely watching for signals from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, particularly regarding communication with the Kishida government, which leans towards a dovish monetary policy [2] - The recent policy statement closely resembles the previous one, leading to potential disappointment among yen bulls regarding Ueda's future comments [2][3] Group 3 - The decision by the Bank of Japan aligns with market expectations for a dovish monetary policy under Kishida, potentially providing breathing room for the Japanese stock market [3] - Despite the decision slightly exceeding expectations, the support for a low-interest-rate environment continues to pressure the yen, resulting in a slight rebound of the dollar against the yen [3] - The limited opposition to maintaining the current rate, with only two members dissenting, suggests that the Bank of Japan may resume rate hikes in the coming months [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights the performance and trends in the credit bond ETF market, particularly focusing on the BoShi Credit Bond ETF, which has shown a slight increase in value and significant trading volume over the past year [2] - As of October 21, the credit bond ETF BoShi has a recent trading volume of 2.611 billion yuan on average per day over the past year, indicating strong market activity [2] - In September, the total bond financing in the real estate sector reached 56.1 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 31%, with credit bond financing contributing significantly to this growth [2] Group 2 - The report from CITIC Securities suggests that inflation predictions for 2026 may show a steady increase in PPI, influenced by various economic indicators, while CPI may experience fluctuations [3] - Huaxi Securities notes that the demand for credit bonds may decline in the fourth quarter due to seasonal trends and institutional profit-taking pressures, which could hinder the performance of the credit bond market [3] - The latest scale of the credit bond ETF BoShi is reported to be 10.034 billion yuan, closely tracking the Shenzhen benchmark credit bond index [3]