非银金融/保险Ⅱ
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新华保险(601336):2024年报点评:净利润及DPS均同比高增,分红比例维持稳定
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-28 13:54
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][15]. Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit and dividends per share (DPS), with a stable dividend payout ratio [12][14]. - The net profit for 2024 reached 26.229 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 201.1% [14]. - The company adjusted its investment return assumptions, lowering the rate from 4.5% to 4.0% and the risk discount rate from 9.0% to 8.5% [4][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a new business value (NBV) of 6.253 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 106.8% compared to the previous year [13]. - The total investment income for 2024 was 79.687 billion yuan, up 251.6% year-on-year [14]. - The annualized net, total, and comprehensive investment returns were 3.2%, 5.8%, and 8.5%, respectively [14]. Business Growth - The NBV margin improved to 14.6%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year [13]. - The company’s agent count decreased to 136,000 by the end of 2024, but the average performance of agents showed a positive trend with a 41% increase in productivity [13]. Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 2.53 yuan per share, a 197% increase from the previous year, maintaining a payout ratio of approximately 30% [14]. Future Projections - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 23.389 billion yuan, 27.439 billion yuan, and 30.864 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of -10.8%, +17.3%, and +12.5% [15].
中国人寿(601628):2024年报点评:净利润同比高增,DPS显著增长
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-28 13:53
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in net profit for 2024, achieving a year-on-year growth of 131.6% to reach 106.935 billion yuan, driven primarily by increased investment income [3][12] - The company adjusted its investment return assumptions, lowering the rate from 4.5% to 4.0%, while maintaining the risk discount rate for ordinary business at 8.0% and reducing the rate for floating income business from 8.0% to 7.2% [3][11] - The company's new business value (NBV) for 2024 is projected at 33.709 billion yuan, reflecting a decrease of 26.4% due to actuarial assumption adjustments, although the overall NBV growth remains strong [12] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved total investment income of 308.251 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 150.4% [12] - The annualized net and total investment returns for 2024 were 3.47% and 5.50%, respectively [12] - The company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.65 yuan per share, marking a 51.2% increase year-on-year [12] Business Metrics - The NBV growth rate for 2024 is expected to be 24.3%, with the first quarter, first half, and nine months showing growth rates of 26.3%, 18.6%, and 25.1%, respectively [12] - The number of agents as of the end of 2024 is 615,000, which is a decrease from previous periods [12] - The company's embedded value (EV) is projected to be 1.4 trillion yuan by the end of 2024, reflecting an 11.2% increase from the beginning of the year [12] Future Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 108.5 billion yuan, 122.6 billion yuan, and 141.6 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with growth rates of 1.5%, 13.0%, and 15.5% [13]
中国平安(601318):2024年报点评:分红持续增长,精算假设调整影响NBV及EV增速
Guolian Minsheng Securities· 2025-03-20 11:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [7] Core Insights - The company reported a net profit of 126.61 billion yuan for 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.8%. The net value of new business (NBV) reached 28.53 billion yuan, up 25.6% year-on-year. The company has adjusted its actuarial assumptions, lowering the investment return rate from 4.5% to 4.0% and the risk discount rate from 9.5% to 8.5%/7.5% [4][13][14] - The company continues to emphasize shareholder returns, proposing a dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024, which is a 5% increase year-on-year [15] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For 2024, the company achieved a net profit of 1266.07 billion yuan, with a breakdown of profits from various segments: life and health insurance (930 billion yuan, +28%), property insurance (150 billion yuan, +68%), banking (258 billion yuan, -4%), asset management (-119 billion yuan, loss narrowed), and financial empowerment (129 billion yuan, +528%) [14] - The operating profit for 2024 was 1218.62 billion yuan, reflecting a 9.1% increase year-on-year [14] New Business Value (NBV) - The NBV for 2024 was 285.34 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 25.6%. The first-year premium used for calculating NBV was 1540.26 billion yuan, down 7.1% year-on-year [15] - The NBV margin improved to 22.7%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year [15] Actuarial Assumptions and EV Growth - The company's actuarial assumptions adjustments led to a decrease in the expected value (EV) growth, with the EV for life and health insurance at 8350.93 billion yuan by the end of 2024, down 13.1% due to these adjustments [15] - The company’s EV based on 2023 assumptions was 9606.08 billion yuan, reflecting a 15.6% increase from the beginning of the year [15] Dividend Policy - The proposed dividend of 2.55 yuan per share for 2024 indicates a commitment to shareholder returns, with a payout ratio of 37.9% of the operating profit [15] Future Projections - The company forecasts insurance business revenues of 575.68 billion yuan, 600.48 billion yuan, and 628.27 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding growth rates of 4.4%, 4.3%, and 4.6% [17] - Projected net profits for the same years are 141.39 billion yuan, 164.21 billion yuan, and 193.67 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.7%, 16.1%, and 17.9% respectively [17]