Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Taiwanese stock market has experienced a significant upward trend, driven primarily by the AI supply chain, particularly benefiting from increased capital expenditures by large cloud service providers (CSPs) [3][4] - The Taiwan stock index has risen from approximately 13,000 points at the end of 2022 to nearly 26,000 points, marking a cumulative increase of 100% [3] - The AI-driven corporate profit growth cycle is expected to continue until 2026, providing a strong foundation for the long-term positive outlook of the Taiwanese stock market [3] Group 2 - Key indicators to monitor include the capital expenditure trends of the four major CSPs, as sustained increases will translate into strong demand for Taiwan's AI supply chain [3] - AI applications are extending from cloud computing to edge computing and end devices, which is anticipated to create a second wave of growth momentum before 2026 [3] - Despite the structural positive factors, short-term volatility risks exist due to high valuations in AI stocks and potential inflation pressures that could affect market sentiment [4] Group 3 - Investment recommendations include focusing on sectors with potential for specification upgrades, such as thermal management, network communication PCBs, power supplies, and copper foil substrates [4] - Caution is advised in stock selection for non-AI stocks, with suggestions to consider industries with policy support or defensive characteristics, such as military/aerospace, finance, construction, dining, and convenience stores [4]

CoWoP是近期AI伺服器產業的焦點，這是好技術並值得持續關注，但也不能忽略量產/商業化的高度不確定性與挑戰。網路上已經有很多關於技術優勢與製造挑戰的分析，我從另外兩個角度來分析:1. 首先是用Apple的例子來對比根據臻鼎的年報，可推論Apple至少從2013年就開始投入SLP研發，至2017年才開始量產並用於新款iPhone (X、8與8 Plus)。這四年內，Apple、材料商、製造商、與設備商合作，共同解決研發與量產問題，這不只是單一技術開發，而是整個產業生態升級。現在的PCB產業技術當然遠勝十年前，但Nvidia對技術與供應鏈的掌控能力不見得勝過10年前那時的Apple，且CoWoP要導入SLP的挑戰也遠勝iPhone案例 (粗略看，前者是後者約萬倍的系統功耗、一半以下的線寬線距、3倍以上的層數、百倍的面積)。在沒有具體的實際測試結果前，CoWoP要在2028年量產並用於Rubin Ultra是很樂觀的預期。2. CoWoP與CoPoS同時量產與商業化的挑戰艱鉅台積電有另一個次世代封裝技術CoPoS，也預計在2028後量產。CoWoP在理論上可以改善傳輸效率並簡化供應鏈，但CoPoS要解決的是很實際 ...