电子行业 超配 （维持） PCB 产业链深度报告 深 度 2025 年业绩预告高增，2026 年景气持续 2026 年 2 月 10 日 罗炜斌 S0340521020001 电话：0769-22110619 邮箱： luoweibin@dgzq.com.cn 陈伟光 S0340520060001 电话：0769-22119430 邮箱： chenweiguang@dgzq.com.cn 电子行业指数走势 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFind 相关报告 投资要点： 本报告的风险等级为中高风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 SAC 执业证书编号： SAC 执业证书编号： 投资建议：从已披露业绩预告或快报的情况来看（下同），PCB产业链 2025年业绩实现高速增长，一方面受益于下游AI算力需求持续增长，另 一方面AI驱动PCB往高性能、高密度方向升级，高多层板、高阶HDI等高 价值量产品需求加大，同时也带动了高端覆铜板材料、钻针耗材及设备 等环节增长。展望后续，PCB领域25Q4业绩出现扰动，但随着新一代计 算平台陆续量产 ...

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 200 RMB and a valuation of 55 times PE for 2026 [5]. Core Insights - The company is a leader in PCB direct imaging technology, experiencing significant growth due to increased capital expenditure in the AI-PCB industry, with a projected sales revenue of 685 million RMB in 2024, capturing a 15% market share globally [2][34]. - The advanced packaging segment is expected to benefit from the CoWoS-L trend, with the company's WLP series products already securing over 100 million RMB in orders [3][54]. - The company is also entering the laser drilling equipment market, with potential for growth as domestic suppliers are expected to replace foreign competitors [4]. Summary by Sections PCB Direct Imaging Leader - The company is positioned as the global leader in PCB direct imaging equipment, with a sales revenue of 685 million RMB in 2024 and a market share of 15% [34]. - The overall revenue for the first three quarters of 2025 increased by 30% year-on-year, with a record monthly shipment of over 100 units in March 2025 [2][38]. - The second-phase production capacity is expected to be more than double that of the first phase, potentially reaching over 1500 units through optimized scheduling [2][40]. Advanced Semiconductor Business - The direct imaging technology is well-suited for the CoWoS-L process, which is anticipated to dominate the market, with TSMC's CoWoS-L capacity expected to exceed 50% by the end of 2026 [3][42]. - The company’s WLP series products are already aiding leading advanced packaging manufacturers in mass production, with expectations to ramp up production in the second half of 2026 [54]. Laser Drilling New Entrant - The company has developed a range of laser drilling equipment, which is crucial for HDI and FPC applications, and is currently undergoing validation with several leading clients [4][61]. - The market for laser drilling equipment is expected to grow as PCB companies focus on HDI technology, providing opportunities for domestic suppliers to capture market share [4][63]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 281 million, 480 million, and 675 million RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, respectively, with corresponding dynamic PE ratios of 80x, 47x, and 33x [5][73]. - The overall revenue is expected to reach 13.58 billion, 21.97 billion, and 29.95 billion RMB for the years 2025 to 2027, with significant year-on-year growth rates [5][73].

Core Viewpoint - The company has approved an investment cooperation agreement to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province, for the construction of a "High-Density Optoelectronic Integrated Circuit Board Project" with a total planned investment of $300 million, implemented in two phases [2][5]. Group 1: Project Overview - The project aims to implement the company's strategic development plan and promote cutting-edge technology research and industrialization [2][5]. - The project will establish an incubation platform for advanced technologies such as CoWoP and mSAP, creating a closed-loop system for "research - pilot - verification - application" [2][5]. - The project will enhance product capabilities in signal transmission, power distribution, and functional integration, focusing on next-generation technology directions like optical-copper integration [2][5]. Group 2: Financial and Operational Details - The registered capital for the wholly-owned subsidiary is set at $100 million, funded by the company's own resources [2][5]. - The total investment of $300 million will be divided into two phases: Phase 1 involves an investment of $100 million to lease an existing factory of approximately 50,000 square meters for technology incubation and preliminary construction; Phase 2 will involve an additional investment of $200 million based on the results of Phase 1 and market demand, including acquiring 60 acres of industrial land and constructing a clean factory of about 60,000 square meters [2][5]. - The company reserves the right to unilaterally terminate the Phase 2 investment plan without liability if Phase 1 does not pass evaluation or if there are significant adverse changes in the market environment [2][5]. Group 3: Expected Outcomes - Upon full production, the project is expected to add an annual capacity of 1.3 million high-density optoelectronic integrated circuit boards, generating an additional annual revenue of 2 billion RMB and a pre-tax profit exceeding 300 million RMB [3][6]. - The implementation of this project will help the company expand its high-end product capacity, optimize product structure, increase the proportion of high-value-added products, and enhance its competitive advantage and overall profitability [3][6]. - The cooperation partners for this project are the Changzhou Jintan District People's Government and the Jincheng Town People's Government [3][6].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for leading PCB manufacturers such as Shenghong Technology, Pengding Holdings, and Huadian Co., Ltd. [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The PCB industry is experiencing rapid advancements in packaging and high-density interconnect technologies, with traditional HDI and substrate technologies evolving into mSAP processes to meet the demands of high-speed signal transmission and large-scale integration [1][2] - The demand for PCB is driven by AI applications, leading to significant expansions in production capacity among leading companies, with total investments exceeding 30 billion RMB [2][20] - The core materials for PCB, including copper foil, electronic cloth, and resin, are undergoing upgrades to meet the high-frequency and high-speed requirements of AI applications [2][20][26] Summary by Sections 1. CoWoP and mSAP as Core Technologies - CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-PCB) is emerging as a future packaging route, enhancing interconnect density and reducing costs by directly using large-size PCBs [1][11] - mSAP (Modified Semi-Additive Process) is becoming the core process for achieving sub-10 µm line capabilities, essential for high-performance applications [1][14] 2. PCB Capacity Expansion and Material Upgrades - Leading PCB manufacturers are actively expanding production capacity, with significant investments announced by companies like Huadian Co., Ltd. and Shenghong Technology [2][20] - The upgrade of core materials includes the transition of copper foil from HVLP1 to HVLP5, electronic cloth to third-generation low-dielectric cloth, and resin to hydrocarbon and PTFE types [2][20][28] 3. Tight Supply of Core Equipment and Acceleration of Domestic Substitution - The supply of core PCB equipment, including drilling, plating, and etching imaging, is tight, with domestic manufacturers accelerating their layouts in advanced process equipment [2][49] - Companies like Dazhu CNC and Ding Tai High-Tech are focusing on high-layer boards and HDI equipment to meet the increasing demands of the industry [2][49] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading PCB manufacturers such as Shenghong Technology, Pengding Holdings, and Huadian Co., Ltd., as well as material companies with core technologies like Honghe Technology and Zhongcai Technology [3][4] - Equipment manufacturers involved in domestic substitution, such as Dazhu CNC and Xinqi Microelectronics, are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is experiencing significant growth, with global sales reaching $59.91 billion in June, a 20% year-on-year increase, and China's sales at $17.24 billion, up 13.1% year-on-year. The industry is expected to continue its upward trend, with a potential peak in sales by June 2025 [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - On August 21, A-shares showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21%. Sectors such as agriculture, beauty care, and computers saw gains, while machinery and communications faced declines [1]. - The semiconductor ETF (159995.SZ) rose by 1.22% in early trading, with notable increases in component stocks such as Zhaoyi Innovation (+6.72%), Cambricon (+4.74%), and Amlogic (+4.61%) [1]. Group 2: Industry Insights - The AI boom is expected to drive advancements in semiconductor packaging technology, particularly CoWoP, benefiting PCB manufacturing, material supply, and equipment sectors [1]. - The electronic semiconductor industry is anticipated to undergo a comprehensive recovery by 2025, with an accelerated clearing of the competitive landscape and a sustained recovery in industry profitability and related company profits [1]. Group 3: ETF Information - The semiconductor ETF (159995) tracks the National Chip Index, comprising 30 leading companies in the semiconductor industry, including SMIC, Cambricon, and Northern Huachuang [2].

Technology & Production Challenges - CoWoP faces significant uncertainties and challenges in mass production and commercialization [1] - Implementing SLP in CoWoP is far more challenging than Apple's use case, involving approximately 10,000 times the system power, less than half the line width and spacing, more than three times the layer count, and 100 times the area [2] - Expectation that CoWoP will reach mass production and be deployed in Rubin Ultra by 2028 seems overly optimistic without concrete test data [3] Strategic & Competitive Landscape - Apple invested in SLP R&D as early as 2013, with mass production starting in 2017, requiring four years of collaboration across the supply chain [1] - Nvidia may not possess stronger control over technology and the supply chain than Apple did during SLP adoption [2] - TSMC is developing CoPoS, targeting mass production around the same time as CoWoP (post-2028), potentially prioritizing it due to its focus on manufacturing efficiency [3] - Introducing two major, unproven technologies (CoWoP and CoPoS) within the same year carries considerable risk, posing a challenge to CoWoP's 2028 mass production goal [3]

CoWoP是近期AI伺服器產業的焦點，這是好技術並值得持續關注，但也不能忽略量產/商業化的高度不確定性與挑戰。網路上已經有很多關於技術優勢與製造挑戰的分析，我從另外兩個角度來分析:1. 首先是用Apple的例子來對比根據臻鼎的年報，可推論Apple至少從2013年就開始投入SLP研發，至2017年才開始量產並用於新款iPhone (X、8與8 Plus)。這四年內，Apple、材料商、製造商、與設備商合作，共同解決研發與量產問題，這不只是單一技術開發，而是整個產業生態升級。現在的PCB產業技術當然遠勝十年前，但Nvidia對技術與供應鏈的掌控能力不見得勝過10年前那時的Apple，且CoWoP要導入SLP的挑戰也遠勝iPhone案例 (粗略看，前者是後者約萬倍的系統功耗、一半以下的線寬線距、3倍以上的層數、百倍的面積)。在沒有具體的實際測試結果前，CoWoP要在2028年量產並用於Rubin Ultra是很樂觀的預期。2. CoWoP與CoPoS同時量產與商業化的挑戰艱鉅台積電有另一個次世代封裝技術CoPoS，也預計在2028後量產。CoWoP在理論上可以改善傳輸效率並簡化供應鏈，但CoPoS要解決的是很實際 ...

Group 1: Multiple Sclerosis (MS) Market Opportunity - The global market for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) is estimated to have a gap of $20 billion, with BTK inhibitors potentially igniting the MS treatment sector, particularly in the second half of the year [2][3] - The existing market for MS treatments is primarily focused on Relapsing MS (RMS), while BTK inhibitors are expected to address the unmet needs in Progressive MS (PMS) [3][5] - Key companies expected to benefit from this market opportunity include specific listed firms, with significant data readouts anticipated in the second half of 2025 [3][6] Group 2: PCB Technology Revolution - A new process in printed circuit boards (PCBs) is anticipated to trigger a technological revolution, with a notable increase in demand for SLP (Substrate-like PCB) and a rise in requirements for laser equipment [7][8] - SLP technology is expected to closely resemble IC substrates, with significant performance improvements anticipated as CoWoP (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Panel) technology becomes more commercialized [7][8] - Companies with leading positions in SLP technology and those supplying advanced laser writing and drilling equipment are expected to benefit significantly from these developments [7][8]