Market Dynamics - Four out of India's seven largest refiners are now seeking non-sanctioned Russian crude [1] - Reliance, a major player, is currently not participating in the purchase of Russian crude [1] Industry Impact - The shift in sourcing strategies by Indian refiners reflects adjustments to global crude oil market dynamics [1]

Michelle: Let's talk about corn specifically. We popped above the 200-day moving average yesterday. I think we're trading back below it here this morning. You bring up a good point about corn because export demand has been on record pace. Demand in general has been good, but not enough. It's not good enough to overcome these big supplies. We're stuck price-wise, aren't we?That's a bullish level. There is some concern out there. Not that the US is going to run out of corn anytime soon, but available supplies ...

King Corn was one of the market’s that stormed to new session highs shortly before the close. There is a lot going on with December corn (ZCZ25) these days. Recall from Tuesday’s Commentary when I mentioned how technical analysis was largely a myth. The Dec25 corn contract is a good example. Sunday night through Monday morning saw Dec25 open lower before taking out Friday’s low of $4.2675, as well as the previous low of $4.2650 from October 31, on its way to a low of $4.2625. However, this did not trigger t ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The ongoing US government shutdown has created unusual dynamics across various commodity sectors and markets [3] - The US dollar index has strengthened, leading to positive performance in the commodity complex, with all three major commodities starting the week in the green [3] - US Treasury yields are rising, indicating potential interest rate hikes to address anticipated inflation [3] Group 2: Metals Sector - December gold (GCZ25) reached a record high of $3,973.70, increasing by $64.80 (1.7%), despite the strong US dollar [4] - Silver prices also rose, with the December contract gaining $0.625 (1.3%) [4] - The upward trend in gold and silver prices is supported by ongoing purchases from central banks worldwide [4] Group 3: Energies Sector - King Crude Oil (WTI) (CLX25) saw an increase of $1.24 (2.0%) early Monday morning [5] - Futures spreads indicate stronger backwardation, but there is skepticism regarding the fundamental implications of this trend, as crude oil has been trending sideways to down for much of the past five years [5] - There appears to be a disconnect between the forward curve and the futures market dynamics, raising questions about future market behavior [5]

Market Performance - Major averages initially extended their upward trend but later pulled back, with the Nasdaq up 20.19 points (0.1%) at 22,775.35, S&P 500 down 12.05 points (0.2%) at 6,699.15, and Dow down 153.45 points (0.3%) at 46,287.65 [1] - The initial upward move was partly due to optimism surrounding the artificial intelligence sector, particularly benefiting tech stocks [2] Company News - Nvidia (NVDA) saw a pullback but remains up by 1.4%, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) surged by 3.0% amid AI optimism [2] - OpenAI, the owner of ChatGPT, completed a deal valuing the company at $500 billion, surpassing SpaceX as the world's most valuable privately-owned company after selling about $6.6 billion worth of stock [3] Sector Performance - Gold stocks experienced a sharp pullback, with the NYSE Arca Gold Bugs Index plunging by 2.7% after reaching a fourteen-year closing high [5] - Pharmaceutical stocks also faced significant weakness, with the NYSE Arca Pharmaceutical Index down by 1.4% following a two-day surge [5] - Energy stocks showed notable weakness due to a continued decrease in crude oil prices, while semiconductor stocks performed strongly amid AI optimism [6] International Markets - Stock markets in the Asia-Pacific region mostly moved higher, with Japan's Nikkei 225 Index up by 0.9% and Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index surging by 1.6% [7] - Most European stocks also advanced, with the German DAX Index and French CAC 40 Index up by 1.2% and 1.1%, respectively, although the U.K.'s FTSE 100 Index fell by 0.3% [7] Bond Market - Treasuries climbed back near the unchanged line after initial weakness, with the yield on the benchmark ten-year note down by less than a basis point at 4.102% [8]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased due to a rally in WTI crude oil, which has led to short covering in sugar futures, benefiting ethanol prices and potentially reducing sugar supplies as mills may shift focus to ethanol production [1] Group 1: Sugar Production and Supply - Brazil's sugar production in the first half of August rose by 16% year-on-year to 3,615 million tons, with the percentage of sugarcane crushed for sugar increasing to 55% from 49.15% the previous year [2] - Covrig Analytics reported that Brazilian sugar mills are currently prioritizing sugar production over ethanol, driven by drier cane crops [3] - Conab has reduced its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate by 3.1% to 44.5 million tons, citing lower sugarcane yields due to drought and excessive heat [5] Group 2: Global Sugar Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a global sugar deficit of 231,000 tons for the 2025/26 season, marking the sixth consecutive year of deficits, with global production expected to rise by 3.3% year-on-year to 180.6 million tons [4] - The USDA projected a record global sugar production of 189.318 million tons for the 2025/26 season, with ending stocks expected to increase by 7.5% year-on-year to 41.188 million tons [6] - Expectations for abundant sugar supplies are currently undermining sugar prices, with a projected global sugar surplus of 7.5 million tons for the 2025/26 season, the largest in eight years [6]

Market Overview - Global financial markets exhibited a cautiously optimistic tone, with major US indices closing higher despite modest gains [1] - Investors are digesting a series of corporate news and macroeconomic signals while focusing on potential future monetary policy paths [1] US Market Performance - S&P 500 Index rose by 0.29% to $6,450 [3] - Dow Jones Index increased by 0.15% to $45,330 [3] - Nasdaq Composite Index climbed by 0.35% to $23,420 [3] - Russell 2000 Index saw a rise of 0.14% to $2,350 [3] Commodity Market - WTI crude oil stabilized above $65, trading at $65.40 [3][4] - Gold prices fluctuated around $3,538, supported by expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][4] - Silver remained near multi-year highs, slightly above $40 per ounce [3] European Market Performance - FTSE 100 Index decreased by 0.08% to $9,160 [3] - DAX Index increased by 0.08% to $23,660 [3] - CAC 40 Index rose by 0.25% to $7,729 [3] Notable Stock Movements - ULTA Beauty stock surged by 7.98% to $532 after Barclays raised its target price from $589 to $617 [3] - Kraft Heinz stock fell by 6.9% to $26.08 following the announcement of a split to revitalize growth after a decade of merger [3] Sector Focus - The focus of the market is on precious metals and defense sectors, with gold shining due to strong rate cut expectations [4] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive strong momentum in defense stocks, making them prominent in the current market [4]