Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is oscillating between stable growth and easing expectations. It is affected by the stock market, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the increased uncertainty of global trade, which adds uncertainty to foreign capital inflows. Short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [1][3]. - The fiscal policy in 2026 is expected to remain proactive, with an emphasis on "increasing the total amount and optimizing the structure". The expenditure intensity is expected to increase, and the rhythm will continue to be advanced, providing support for stable growth [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price indicators**: China's monthly CPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year increase of 0.80%; the monthly PPI has a month - on - month increase of 0.20% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.90% [9]. - **Monthly economic indicators**: The social financing scale is 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year growth is 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI is 49.30%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.80% and a decline rate of 1.60% [10]. - **Daily economic indicators**: The US dollar index is 96.86, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.01%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB is 6.9106, with a month - on - month increase of 0.003 and a growth rate of 0.04%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.53, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03 and a growth rate of 1.73%; DR007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.23%; R007 is 1.56, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 and a decline rate of 6.95%; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.58, with a month - on - month increase of 0.01 and a growth rate of 0.34%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.34% [10]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing prices and price changes**: On February 10, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL were 102.48 yuan, 106.02 yuan, 108.49 yuan, and 112.68 yuan respectively. The price changes of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.00%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 0.01% respectively [3]. - **Net basis spread**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL were 0.014 yuan, 0.004 yuan, 0.017 yuan, and - 0.069 yuan respectively [3]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central bank operations**: On February 10, 2026, the central bank conducted 311.4 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% through quantity tendering [2]. - **Repo rates**: The main - term repo rates of 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M were 1.362%, 1.531%, 1.604%, and 1.551% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [2]. IV. Spread Overview - The report presents various spread data, including inter - period spreads of treasury bond futures and spreads between spot and futures of different maturities, such as 4*TS - T, 2*TS - TF, 2*TF - T, 3*T - TL, and 2*TS - 3*TF + T [32][38][39]. V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TS main contract [41][45][50]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It includes the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TF main contract [51][54]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - The report provides the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the T main contract [55][56]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - It shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract and the treasury bond yield to maturity, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends of the TL main contract [62][63]. 4. Strategies - **Single - side strategy**: As the repo rate declines, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillate [4]. - **Arbitrage strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [4]. - **Hedging strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - sellers can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Group 1 - The CME Bitcoin futures main contract fell by 0.81% to $93,815 at the close of trading on Tuesday, January 6 [1] - The Bitcoin futures reached a daily low of $91,460 at 02:00 Beijing time [1] - The CME Ether futures main contract increased by 1.23% to $3,296.50 [1]

Core Insights - U.S. tech stocks experienced a general increase, indicating positive market sentiment in the technology sector [1] - A significant outage at CME Group disrupted trading in index futures and other essential contracts, highlighting operational vulnerabilities in trading platforms [1] Group 1: U.S. Tech Stocks - The majority of U.S. tech stocks gained, reflecting a bullish trend in the technology industry [1] - This upward movement in tech stocks may suggest investor confidence and potential growth opportunities within the sector [1] Group 2: CME Group Outage - The CME Group faced an outage that halted trading in index futures and other key contracts, which could impact market liquidity and trading strategies [1] - The incident underscores the importance of robust infrastructure in trading operations and the potential risks associated with technological failures [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various government bond futures contracts, highlighting slight increases in short-term contracts and declines in long-term contracts [1] Group 1: Short-term Bond Futures - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.02% [1] Group 2: Long-term Bond Futures - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract decreased by 0.01% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract fell by 0.16% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The curve structure of Treasury bond futures continues to flatten, and a package of policies is on the way. Attention is drawn to the press conference of the State Council Information Office [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On May 6, most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract flat, the 5 - year main contract down 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.06%. The Treasury bond futures index was 0.73. The strategy's cumulative returns without leverage were - 0.28% in the past 20 days, - 0.77% in the past 60 days, 0.38% in the past 120 days, and 1.48% in the past 240 days [1]. - The equity market opened and closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3300, up 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97%. Nearly 5000 stocks in the whole market rose [1]. 3.2 Capital and Interest Rates - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.7020%, down 5.8bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.7070%, down 5.5bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.7370%, down 4.4bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.7320%, down 1.1bp [2]. - The inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2.2 billion yuan on May 6, an increase of 45.51%. Overnight rate closed at 1.65%, down 13bp; 7 - day rate closed at 1.70%, down 25bp; 14 - day rate closed at 1.76%, down 14bp; 1 - month rate closed at 1.75%, up 2bp [4]. 3.3 Futures Contracts - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume and open interest of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts on the previous trading day are provided. The 2 - year active CTD bond was 240024.IB with an IRR of 2.16%, the 5 - year was 240014.IB with an IRR of 2.31%, the 10 - year was 220003.IB with an IRR of 2.46%, and the 30 - year was 200012.IB with an IRR of 5.05%. Currently, R007 is about 0% [3]. 3.4 Yield Curves - The Treasury bond yield curve shifted upward by 0.30 - 0.76BP (2Y up 0.33BP to 1.45%; 5Y up 0.76BP to 1.53%; 10Y up 0.68BP to 1.63%; 30Y up 0.30BP to 1.83%). The credit bond yield curve shifted downward by 1.50 - 3.50BP [4][5]. 3.5 Institutional Positions - The net long positions of private funds decreased by 0.82%, foreign capital decreased by 0.72%, and wealth management subsidiaries remained unchanged [6]. 3.6 Macro and Industry News - On May 6, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 7 to introduce a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations [8]. 3.7 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 1, indicating a neutral - to - bullish trend [9].