国债期货日报 | 2026-02-11 财政：（3）财政：2025年全年财政收支整体未达预期，收入受税收走弱与非税高基数拖累，全年一般公共预算收 入同比下降1.7%；支出节奏前置，年末力度减弱，全年完成度偏低。结构上呈现分化特征，民生支出总体稳定， 基建类支出占比下降，土地财政收入持续疲软。展望2026年，财政政策预计延续积极，强调"总量增加、结构更优"， 支出力度有望加强，节奏继续前置，对稳增长形成支撑。（4）金融：2025年前12个月份社会融资规模增量累计为 35.6万亿元，比去年同期3.34万亿：12月末，M2余额340.29万亿，同比+8.5%；M1余额115.51万亿，同比+3.8%。 12月末人民币贷款余额同比+6.2%，存款余额同比+8.7%。信贷方面居民与企业融资明显分化，居民贷款减少反映 内生需求仍弱，企业贷款则同比多增，体现政策支持效果逐步显现。（5）央行：2026-02-10，央行以固定利率1.4%、 数量招标方式开展了3114亿元7天的逆回购操作。（6）货币市场：主要期限回购利率1D、7D、14D和1M分别为1.362%、 1.531%、1.604% 和1.551%，回购利率近期回落。 ...

Group 1 - The CME Bitcoin futures main contract fell by 0.81% to $93,815 at the close of trading on Tuesday, January 6 [1] - The Bitcoin futures reached a daily low of $91,460 at 02:00 Beijing time [1] - The CME Ether futures main contract increased by 1.23% to $3,296.50 [1]

Core Insights - U.S. tech stocks experienced a general increase, indicating positive market sentiment in the technology sector [1] - A significant outage at CME Group disrupted trading in index futures and other essential contracts, highlighting operational vulnerabilities in trading platforms [1] Group 1: U.S. Tech Stocks - The majority of U.S. tech stocks gained, reflecting a bullish trend in the technology industry [1] - This upward movement in tech stocks may suggest investor confidence and potential growth opportunities within the sector [1] Group 2: CME Group Outage - The CME Group faced an outage that halted trading in index futures and other key contracts, which could impact market liquidity and trading strategies [1] - The incident underscores the importance of robust infrastructure in trading operations and the potential risks associated with technological failures [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of various government bond futures contracts, highlighting slight increases in short-term contracts and declines in long-term contracts [1] Group 1: Short-term Bond Futures - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.02% [1] Group 2: Long-term Bond Futures - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract decreased by 0.01% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract fell by 0.16% [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The curve structure of Treasury bond futures continues to flatten, and a package of policies is on the way. Attention is drawn to the press conference of the State Council Information Office [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - On May 6, most Treasury bond futures closed lower, with the 30 - year main contract up 0.11%, the 10 - year main contract flat, the 5 - year main contract down 0.04%, and the 2 - year main contract down 0.06%. The Treasury bond futures index was 0.73. The strategy's cumulative returns without leverage were - 0.28% in the past 20 days, - 0.77% in the past 60 days, 0.38% in the past 120 days, and 1.48% in the past 240 days [1]. - The equity market opened and closed higher, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains. The Shanghai Composite Index closed above 3300, up 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.84%, and the ChiNext Index up 1.97%. Nearly 5000 stocks in the whole market rose [1]. 3.2 Capital and Interest Rates - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.7020%, down 5.8bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was 1.7070%, down 5.5bp; 14 - day shibor was 1.7370%, down 4.4bp; 1 - month shibor was 1.7320%, down 1.1bp [2]. - The inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded 2.2 billion yuan on May 6, an increase of 45.51%. Overnight rate closed at 1.65%, down 13bp; 7 - day rate closed at 1.70%, down 25bp; 14 - day rate closed at 1.76%, down 14bp; 1 - month rate closed at 1.75%, up 2bp [4]. 3.3 Futures Contracts - The opening, high, low, and closing prices, as well as trading volume and open interest of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts on the previous trading day are provided. The 2 - year active CTD bond was 240024.IB with an IRR of 2.16%, the 5 - year was 240014.IB with an IRR of 2.31%, the 10 - year was 220003.IB with an IRR of 2.46%, and the 30 - year was 200012.IB with an IRR of 5.05%. Currently, R007 is about 0% [3]. 3.4 Yield Curves - The Treasury bond yield curve shifted upward by 0.30 - 0.76BP (2Y up 0.33BP to 1.45%; 5Y up 0.76BP to 1.53%; 10Y up 0.68BP to 1.63%; 30Y up 0.30BP to 1.83%). The credit bond yield curve shifted downward by 1.50 - 3.50BP [4][5]. 3.5 Institutional Positions - The net long positions of private funds decreased by 0.82%, foreign capital decreased by 0.72%, and wealth management subsidiaries remained unchanged [6]. 3.6 Macro and Industry News - On May 6, the central bank conducted 40.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations at an interest rate of 1.50%, unchanged from before. The State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on May 7 to introduce a package of financial policies to support market stability and expectations [8]. 3.7 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 1, indicating a neutral - to - bullish trend [9].