Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market situation is influenced by overseas tariff risks and domestic policies. The equity market is expected to be bullish in the medium - term, and the bond market also shows strength. Different commodity futures have various trends based on their specific supply - demand and macro - economic factors [1][2][5]. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Futures and Options - **Stock Index Futures (IF, IH, IC, IM)** - **Intraday View**: Narrow - range fluctuation, with trading positions holding cash and waiting for opportunities [1]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [1]. - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the short position of the MO2507 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put option opportunistically, and cautiously hold long positions in IM2507 [1]. - **Core Logic**: Overseas tariff risks are rising, and domestic policies are boosting the domestic demand and the innovation of enterprises. Technically, the market is in a bullish cycle, and risk appetite has increased [1][2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures (TS, TF, T, TL)** - **Intraday View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate in a narrow range, while long - term bonds are relatively stronger [3]. - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [3]. - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [5]. - **Core Logic**: The improvement of the long - term liability side of large banks and the expectation of policy easing support the bond market [5]. Commodity Futures and Options - **Metal and New Energy Materials - Copper** - **Intraday View**: The price range is 78800 - 80500 [6]. - **Medium - term View**: The price range is 60000 - 90000 [6]. - **Reference Strategy**: Adopt a weak - biased oscillatory trading strategy [6]. - **Core Logic**: The possible Fed rate cut, supply changes in different regions, weak demand, inventory changes, and the upcoming Sino - US tariff negotiation results affect the copper market [6][7]. - **Industrial Silicon** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 7900 - 8200 [8]. - **Medium - term View**: Under pressure, with a range of 7000 - 8500 [8]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [8]. - **Core Logic**: Both supply and demand are decreasing, and the inventory is at a high level [8]. - **Polysilicon** - **Intraday View**: Rise and then fall, with a range of 35000 - 36000 [11]. - **Medium - term View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 28000 - 38000 [11]. - **Reference Strategy**: Wait and see [11]. - **Core Logic**: Supply and demand are both down, and the inventory is high, indicating an obvious supply surplus [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Intraday View**: Low - level operation, with a range of 63000 - 64000 [12]. - **Medium - term View**: The cost support weakens, and the price declines steadily, with a range of 56000 - 68000 [12]. - **Reference Strategy**: Short the futures at high prices and sell LC2508 - C - 83000 [12]. - **Core Logic**: The spot price is low, supply pressure is high, and the inventory is at a high level [12].

国债期货午盘收盘 2年期国债期货（TS）主力合约涨0.04%，5年期国债期货（TF）主力合约涨0.02%，10年期国债期货 （T）主力合约跌0.01%，30年期国债期货（TL）主力合约跌0.16%。 ...

| 虞堪 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002804 | yukan@gtht.com | | --- | --- | --- | | 林致远 | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021471 | linzhiyuan@gtht.com | 【基本面跟踪】 5 月 6 日，国债期货收盘多数下跌，30 年期主力合约涨 0.11%，10 年期主力合约持平，5 年期主力合 约跌 0.04%，2 年期主力合约跌 0.06%。 2025 年 05 月 07 日 国债期货：曲线结构延续走平，一揽子政策在 途，关注国新办发布会 2 年期活跃 CTD 券为 240024.IB，IRR 为 2.16%，5 年期活跃 CTD 券为 240014.IB，IRR 为 2.31%， 10 年期活跃 CTD 券为 220003.IB，IRR 为 2.46%，30 年期活跃 CTD 券为 200012.IB，IRR 为 5.05%，目 前 R007 约 0%。 货币市场方面，5 月 6 日银行间质押式回购市场共成交 22 亿元，增加 45.51%。其中，隔夜收于 1.65%，较前一交易日下跌 13bp，7 天收于 1.70%，较前一交易日下跌 25 ...