5年期国债期货(TF)

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国债期货日报-20250820
Rui Da Qi Huo· 2025-08-20 09:35
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]
冠通每日交易策略-20250731
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-31 10:25
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].
冠通每日交易策略-20250730
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-07-30 10:20
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For copper, the short - term supply is loose due to tariff implementation, but long - term supply is tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term, with a focus on the 78,000 yuan/ton support level [7]. - For lithium carbonate, the supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement. The market is in a wait - and - see state, and cautious operation is recommended [8][9]. - For crude oil, prices are expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production policy on September 3rd [10]. - For asphalt, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term, affected by supply, demand, and policy factors [11][12]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate, with a recommendation of 09 - 01 reverse spread, due to factors such as trade, supply, and demand [13]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. - For PVC, it is expected to decline with fluctuations, and 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended, affected by supply, demand, and inventory [16][17]. - For coking coal, it is expected to consolidate in the near term, with cautious trading [18]. - For urea, it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term, and the current market is a rebound [19][20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 30th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Polysilicon rose over 8%, while cotton, cotton yarn, and pulp fell over 1%. In terms of funds, CSI 1000 2509, SSE 500 2509, and polysilicon 2509 had capital inflows, while coking coal 2509, soda ash 2509, and glass 2509 had outflows [4]. Specific Commodity Analysis Copper - The supply is short - term loose and long - term tight. The consumption structure may change, and the market is bearish in the short - term [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price is slightly up. The supply - side looseness will ease, but high inventory restricts upward movement [8][9]. Crude Oil - Entering the seasonal peak season, prices are affected by factors such as OPEC+ production, trade agreements, and sanctions, and are expected to fluctuate [10]. Asphalt - Supply has decreased, demand is affected by funds and weather, and prices are expected to fluctuate [11][12]. PP - Downstream and enterprise operating rates are low, and it is expected to fluctuate due to trade and supply - demand factors [13]. Plastic - Operating rates are at a medium level, and it is expected to fluctuate considering trade, supply, and demand [15]. PVC - Supply is high, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [16][17]. Coking Coal - The price is slightly up, and it is expected to consolidate in the near term [18]. Urea - Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and inventory has increased. It is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [19][20].
【国债期货早盘收盘】金十期货7月29日讯,2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约跌0.04%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.12%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.18%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.47%。
news flash· 2025-07-29 03:33
Core Viewpoint - The article reports a decline in various government bond futures, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract fell by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract decreased by 0.12% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract dropped by 0.18% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract declined by 0.47% [1]
【国债期货早盘开盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约跌0.02%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.05%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.07%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.19%。
news flash· 2025-07-29 01:33
Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury futures (TS) main contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures (TF) main contract fell by 0.05% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures (T) main contract dropped by 0.07% [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract declined by 0.19% [1]
【国债期货午盘收盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约持平,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.04%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.07%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.48%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 07:19
Core Viewpoint - The article reports on the midday closing prices of various government bond futures, indicating a mixed performance across different maturities [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract remained flat [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract decreased by 0.04% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract fell by 0.07% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract dropped by 0.48% [1]
【国债期货早盘收盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约涨0.04%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约涨0.05%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约涨0.06%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约涨0.03%。
news flash· 2025-07-25 03:34
Group 1 - The 2-year Treasury futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.05% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures (T) main contract gained 0.06% [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract saw an increase of 0.03% [1]
【国债期货午盘收盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约跌0.07%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.21%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.29%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.91%。
news flash· 2025-07-24 07:19
Core Viewpoint - The article reports a decline in various government bond futures, indicating a bearish sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract fell by 0.07% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract decreased by 0.21% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract dropped by 0.29% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced a decline of 0.91% [1]
【国债期货早盘收盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约跌0.04%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.12%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.19%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.44%。
news flash· 2025-07-23 03:36
Summary of Key Points - The 2-year Treasury futures (TS) main contract decreased by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year Treasury futures (TF) main contract fell by 0.12% [1] - The 10-year Treasury futures (T) main contract declined by 0.19% [1] - The 30-year Treasury futures (TL) main contract dropped by 0.44% [1]
【国债期货早盘开盘】2年期国债期货(TS)主力合约跌0.04%,5年期国债期货(TF)主力合约跌0.13%,10年期国债期货(T)主力合约跌0.21%,30年期国债期货(TL)主力合约跌0.49%。
news flash· 2025-07-23 01:33
Core Viewpoint - The early trading of government bond futures shows a decline across various maturities, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract fell by 0.04% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract decreased by 0.13% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract dropped by 0.21% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract declined by 0.49% [1]