Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: Affected by the Fed's cautious rate - cut expectations, the copper price is still on a strong trend due to tight fundamentals, though the upward momentum is weaker than the previous day [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: With supply and demand gradually tightening, the price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the short term, supported by the peak - season and pre - holiday stocking expectations [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The supply - demand of crude oil is weakening. It is recommended to short at high levels in the medium - to - long term [12]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt futures price is expected to decline in a fluctuating manner due to high supply - demand pressure of crude oil and limited follow - up of spot prices [13][14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand falls short of expectations and there is no actual anti - involution policy [15]. - **Plastic**: The plastic market is expected to fluctuate as the peak - season demand is underwhelming and no anti - involution policy has been implemented [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to face downward pressure in the near term as downstream pre - holiday stocking ends and new capacity comes on stream [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Attention should be paid to the price transmission between upstream and downstream after the price increase and the macro - market during the National Day holiday [20]. - **Urea**: The urea market is in a state of bottom - grinding with weak fundamentals and limited upward momentum [21][22]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 26th, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Red dates rose nearly 3%, and silver rose over 2%, while coke and coking coal fell over 2% [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:16 on September 26th, funds flowed into CSI 1000 2512, silver 2512, and CSI 500 2512, while flowing out of SSE 50 2512, copper 2511, and iron ore 2601 [7]. 3.2 Individual Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: The supply of refined copper remains tight due to smelter overhauls and reduced scrap copper supply. The demand is driven by pre - holiday replenishment [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is affected by the reduction of lithium mica - sourced production, and the demand for pre - holiday stocking is ending [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ production adjustment will increase the pressure in Q4. The travel peak season is over, but there are factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, and the demand is restricted by funds and weather. The cost support is strengthening, but the follow - up supply - demand pressure of crude oil is high [13][14]. - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is rising, but the peak - season demand is weak. There are new capacity releases and inventory reduction by petrochemical enterprises [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is increasing, and the agricultural film is entering the peak season, but the peak - season effect is not obvious [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the export expectation is weakening, and the inventory pressure is high. The cost support is strengthening [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The mine output is increasing, and the downstream inventory is piling up. Attention should be paid to the price increase and holiday market [20]. - **Urea**: The daily output is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high [21][22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The market is trading on the expected magnitude of the Fed's interest rate cuts, and the US dollar index is continuously weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decrease significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and domestic smelter maintenance, which will support copper prices. However, the significant inventory build - up at the Shanghai Futures Exchange will limit the upside potential of the market [9]. - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to be strong in the short - term, but the specific situation of mine resumption is unclear, which may cap the upside [10][11]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken, and it is recommended to go short on rallies. In the short - term, the market may focus on whether Europe and the US will increase sanctions on Russian crude oil, and the price will fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - The supply and demand of asphalt are both increasing. As the futures price has fallen to the lower end of the trading range, it is recommended to wait and see [14]. - It is expected that PP will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [15][16]. - It is expected that plastic will trade in a range in the near term, with limited downside [17]. - The upside potential of PVC is limited in the near term. Attention should be paid to whether the recent increase in demand can be sustained [18][19]. - Coking coal remains in a relatively strong trend at present [20]. - The urea market is building a bottom, with a chance of a rebound later. However, the loose supply - demand pattern has not reversed, and the market lacks drivers [21][22]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on September 17, most domestic futures main contracts declined. The container shipping European line dropped nearly 7%, rapeseed meal and polysilicon fell more than 2%, and alumina, silver futures, and soybeans No. 2 dropped nearly 2%. In terms of gains, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) rose nearly 2%, SC crude oil and fuel oil rose more than 1%. Stock index futures and treasury bond futures also showed varying degrees of increase [6]. - As of 15:22 on September 17, in terms of capital flow in domestic futures main contracts, crude oil 2511, alumina 2601, and ten - year treasury bond 2512 had capital inflows, while CSI 1000 2509, CSI 500 2509, and SSE 50 2509 had capital outflows [7]. Hot - Spot Varieties Copper - Today, Shanghai copper opened and closed lower. The TC/RC fees remained weakly stable. The supply of refined copper will remain tight. The production of electrolytic copper in August decreased slightly month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in September will decline, and smelters have maintenance plans. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has started to build up [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and closed high today. The average prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased. The supply from lithium mica raw materials decreased, and lithium spodumene became the main raw material. The demand is expected to increase during the peak season, and the price is expected to be strong in the short - term [10][11]. Crude Oil - Crude oil is gradually exiting the seasonal travel peak. The overall oil product inventory in the US continues to increase, and OPEC+ will adjust production. Saudi Aramco has lowered the price of its flagship product. The supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken in the medium - to - long - term, and it will fluctuate in the short - term [12]. Asphalt - The asphalt production rate has rebounded but is still at a relatively low level. The expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has increased, but the shipment volume has decreased. The refinery inventory has increased slightly. The cost support is limited, and the supply and demand are both increasing [14]. PP - The downstream operating rate of PP has rebounded but is at a relatively low level. The enterprise operating rate has increased, and the production ratio of standard products has risen. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [15][16]. Plastic - The plastic operating rate has declined slightly. The downstream operating rate has increased, and the demand for agricultural films is expected to increase. The cost has rebounded, and new production capacity has been put into operation. It is expected to trade in a range in the near term [17]. PVC - The upstream calcium carbide price has increased. The PVC operating rate has increased and is at a relatively high level. The downstream operating rate has increased but is still low compared to previous years. The export outlook has weakened, and the inventory pressure is large. The upside potential is limited [18][19]. Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and closed low today but turned positive at the end. The spot price in the Shanxi market was stable, and the price of Mongolian coking coal increased. The production and imports have increased, and the inventory is gradually shifting to the end - users. The demand has increased, and it remains in a strong trend [20]. Urea - Urea opened low and closed low today, with weak intraday fluctuations. The daily production is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weak terminal demand and high inventory. The market is building a bottom, and there is a chance of a rebound [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Market Overview - As of the close on September 16, domestic futures main contracts mostly rose. Coking coal rose nearly 6%, coke rose over 4%, glass and soda ash rose over 3%, and alumina and rapeseed oil rose nearly 2%. On the downside, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) fell over 1%, and red dates and eggs fell nearly 1%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.24%, IH fell 0.36%, IC rose 0.58%, and IM rose 1.02%. Among treasury bond futures, TS rose 0.04%, TF rose 0.13%, T rose 0.15%, and TL remained flat [5]. - As of 15:17 on September 16, in terms of capital flow, coking coal 2601 saw an inflow of 1.163 billion yuan, rapeseed oil 2601 had an inflow of 1.008 billion yuan, and thirty - year treasury bond 2512 had an inflow of 462 million yuan. Outflows were seen in CSI 300 2509 (2.448 billion yuan), SSE 50 2509 (1.23 billion yuan), and Shanghai copper 2510 (1.146 billion yuan) [7]. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The market is trading on the Fed's rate - cut amplitude, and the US dollar index is weakening. Fundamentally, domestic copper production is expected to decline significantly due to reduced scrap copper imports and smelter maintenance, supporting copper prices. The demand side is in the expectation of the peak season, and downstream purchasing has improved. Copper prices are likely to rise [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade is 70,600 yuan/ton, showing an upward trend. Supply is affected by the proportion of lithium mica raw materials and mine复产. Demand is boosted by the new energy vehicle policy and the peak season. In the short term, prices are strong, but the upside may be limited by mine复产 [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: The seasonal travel peak is ending. US oil inventories are increasing, and OPEC + is accelerating production increases. In the medium - to - long - term, it is recommended to short on rallies. In the short term, the market may focus on sanctions against Russian oil, and geopolitical risks are rising. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is increasing with rising production and开工 rates. Demand is affected by weather, funds, and other factors. With limited cost support, it is recommended to close short positions and wait and see [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工 rates are rising, and new production capacity has been put into operation. With cost support and the approaching peak season, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [15][16]. - **Plastic**:开工 rates are at a neutral level, and downstream demand is increasing with the peak season for agricultural films. With cost support and the influence of policies, it is expected to fluctuate with limited downside [17]. - **PVC**: Supply is increasing with rising开工 rates and new production capacity. Export expectations are weakening, and inventory pressure is high. The upside space is limited, and it is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: Spot prices are stable or rising. Production and imports are increasing, but inventories are decreasing. Demand is rising with steel mill复产. Prices are rising, but there may be short - term corrections [20]. - **Urea**: Prices are oscillating. Production is recovering, and demand is improving marginally. However, high inventory restricts price increases. It is necessary to be cautious about chasing up [21][22].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The price of copper is expected to be volatile and slightly bullish. The Fed's expected rate cut and a falling US dollar index support the non - ferrous metals market. Domestic copper supply is expected to tighten, while demand is expected to improve during the peak season. Attention should be paid to US non - farm payroll data [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but production cut disturbances continue. The market rumors of production cuts and the "Golden September and Silver October" expectations drive up the price [10]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand balance of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to short on rallies. Attention should be paid to the OPEC+ meeting and possible sanctions on Russian oil [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply and demand of asphalt are both weak. Given that the futures price has fallen to the lower edge of the trading range and the OPEC+ meeting this weekend may have a significant impact, it is recommended to close short positions for now [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the number of maintenance devices has increased recently. Downstream industries are gradually entering the peak season, which may bring some support [15][17]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to trade in a range with limited downside. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the开工 rate has decreased recently. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, which may boost demand [18]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The supply is increasing, the demand has not improved substantially, and the inventory pressure is high [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The supply and demand of coking coal are both in the process of recovery. Anti - involution measures are ongoing, and capital sentiment is volatile. Caution is advised when taking long or short positions [21]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to trade weakly in the short term, with possible technical rebounds later. Domestic demand is insufficient, and short - term export support is limited [23]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Futures Market Overview** - As of the close on September 5, most domestic futures contracts rose. Polysilicon rose 8.99% and hit the daily limit, coking coal rose over 6%, glass and coke rose over 4%. In terms of declines, eggs, low - sulfur fuel oil (LU), and asphalt fell over 1%. Stock index futures rose, while treasury bond futures fell [6]. - In terms of capital flow, polysilicon 2511 had an inflow of 1.901 billion, rubber 2601 had an inflow of 901 million, and palm oil 2601 had an inflow of 556 million. The CSI 300 2509 had an outflow of 4.704 billion, the CSI 1000 2509 had an outflow of 4.179 billion, and the CSI 500 2509 had an outflow of 2.692 billion [7]. **Analysis of Each Variety** - **Copper**: Due to the lower - than - expected US ADP employment data, the Fed's expected rate cut expands, and the US dollar index falls. The processing fee of smelters has decreased recently, and the sulfuric acid price is at a high level. Five smelters plan to conduct maintenance in September, and domestic copper production is expected to decline. Although it is currently the off - season, copper demand is boosted by investment in power grid facilities. As the peak season approaches, demand is expected to improve [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased slightly. The supply in Jiangxi has shrunk, but the increase in spodumene production has made up for the gap. The national audit agency's policy on mines in Yichun needs attention. The import volume of lithium carbonate in July decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [10]. - **Crude Oil**: It is at the end of the seasonal travel peak. EIA data shows an unexpected inventory build - up in crude oil and an unexpected de - stocking in gasoline. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, and Saudi Arabia may lower the official selling price in October. The US - India tariff issue may change the global crude oil trade flow [11]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt production rate has declined, and the expected production in September will increase. The downstream construction rate has mostly fallen, and the inventory - to - sales ratio of refineries has decreased but remains at a low level. The cost support has weakened due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [14]. - **PP**: The downstream construction rate has rebounded slightly, and the enterprise construction rate has decreased. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production. As the peak season approaches, downstream demand is expected to increase [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The construction rate has decreased, and the downstream construction rate has increased. The agricultural film industry is entering the peak season, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The cost has decreased due to the possible increase in OPEC+ production [18]. - **PVC**: The upstream calcium carbide price has increased slightly. The supply has increased, and the downstream construction rate is still low. The export outlook is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. New production capacity is being released [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: The price has risen. Most of the temporarily shut - down mines in Jinzhong have resumed production, and the inventory of mines has dropped significantly. Downstream coke production is active, and steel mills' profits have weakened. After the parade, steel mill production is expected to increase [21]. - **Urea**: The upstream factory price is weakly stable, and new orders are scarce. The Indian tender price is significantly lower than the previous one, and the tender volume has reached a record high. The daily production of urea is at a low level, but the supply pattern remains loose. The demand from compound fertilizer factories has decreased but is expected to recover. The factory inventory has increased [23].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: The copper market is expected to be slightly bullish in the near term. Although the demand in the second half of the year is expected to be relatively weak due to tariffs and the pre - empted demand from previous terminal exports, the supply is expected to be tight, and the demand is about to enter the peak season. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest - rate cut situation [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply of lithium carbonate remains abundant, but the production reduction disturbances continue. With high inventory and weak downstream demand, the market sentiment is bearish [11]. - **Crude Oil**: As the consumption peak season is ending and OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, the supply - demand situation of crude oil will weaken. It is recommended to go short on rallies [12]. - **Asphalt**: Under the weak supply - demand situation, asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate in the near term due to limited cost support [14]. - **PP**: PP is expected to fluctuate in the near term. Although the downstream demand is currently weak, the upcoming peak season may bring some improvement. Attention should be paid to the progress of the global trade war [15][16]. - **Plastic**: Plastic is expected to fluctuate in the near term. The improvement in the agricultural film industry may bring some boost, but the overall demand is still weak [17]. - **PVC**: PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations. The fundamental pressure is large, and the export expectation is weak [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamental situation of coking coal is becoming looser. The coke price cut has been proposed but not yet implemented, and attention should be paid to the subsequent progress [20]. - **Urea**: Urea is expected to fluctuate. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to the Indian urea import tender [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of September 2, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Polysilicon rose nearly 4%, and container shipping to Europe rose over 3%. Lithium carbonate fell over 4%. Among stock index futures, IF fell 0.69%, IH rose 0.35%, IC fell 1.78%, and IM fell 1.86%. Among bond futures, TS, TF, T, and TL all declined [6]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:25 on September 2, funds flowed into IC 2509 (3.273 billion), IM 2509 (3.241 billion), and IF 2509 (2.523 billion). Funds flowed out of 30 - year treasury bond 2512 (453 million), Shanghai silver 2510 (438 million), and Shanghai gold 2510 (317 million) [7]. 3.2 Specific Commodity Analysis - **Copper**: In September, the domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline. The import of copper will increase, and the demand is affected by policies and previous exports. The price is expected to be slightly bullish [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price declined. The production in August increased, and the import in July decreased. The market was affected by the rumored resumption of a mine [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The consumption peak season is ending, OPEC+ is increasing production, and the supply - demand situation will weaken. The price may decline [12]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is expected to increase in September. The downstream demand is affected by various factors, and the futures are expected to fluctuate [14]. - **PP**: The downstream and enterprise operating rates are at low - to - medium levels. The cost is affected by the oil price, and new capacity is being put into production. It is expected to fluctuate [15][16]. - **Plastic**: The operating rate has increased. The downstream demand is weak, but the agricultural film industry may bring some improvement. It is expected to fluctuate [17]. - **PVC**: The supply is abundant, the export expectation is weak, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to decline with fluctuations [18][19]. - **Coking Coal**: An accident led to the shutdown of a coal mine. The import increased in July, and the supply - demand situation is becoming looser [20]. - **Urea**: The price is slightly bullish. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the short term. It is expected to fluctuate [22].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market lacks a new main driving force, and the strengthening of the equity market has significantly increased market risk appetite, continuously suppressing bond market sentiment, especially reflected in the increased selling pressure on the ultra - long end of interest - rate bonds, leading to a continuous widening of the spread between the 10 - year and 30 - year bonds. The "strong stock, weak bond" linkage effect is enhanced, and in the short term, liquidity factors may surpass fundamentals and the money market to become the core logic guiding bond market trading. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of the widening term spread brought by the steepening of the yield curve [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Volume**: T, TF, TL main contract closing prices decreased by 0.18%, 0.1%, 0.35% respectively, while TS remained unchanged. T, TF, TS, TL main contract trading volumes increased by 10413, 5816, 734, 2442 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2512 - 2509, T2512 - 2509, TF2512 - 2509 increased, while others like T09 - TL09, TS09 - T09, TS09 - TF09 decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: T, TF, TS, TL main contract positions decreased. T, TF, TS top 20 long positions decreased, while TL's increased. T, TF top 20 net short positions increased, TS decreased, and TL remained unchanged [2] 2. CTD and Active Bonds - **CTD Net Prices**: Most CTD net prices decreased, with only 220007.IB increasing slightly [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: 3y, 5y, 7y, 10y active bond yields decreased by 0.75bp, 0.75bp, 0.25bp, 0.40bp respectively, while 1y remained unchanged [2] 3. Short - term Interest Rates - **Silver Pledge and Shibor**: Silver pledge overnight decreased by 2.31bp, 7 - day increased by 6.33bp, 14 - day remained unchanged. Shibor overnight increased by 0.90bp, 7 - day increased by 1.70bp, 14 - day decreased by 0.30bp [2] 4. LPR and Open Market Operations - **LPR**: 1 - year and 5 - year LPR remained unchanged at 3.0% and 3.5% respectively [2] - **Open Market Operations**: The issuance scale was 616 billion yuan, and the maturity scale was 497.5 billion yuan, with an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase [2] 5. Industry News - **Budget Revenue**: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Tax revenue decreased by 0.3%, non - tax revenue increased by 2%. Central revenue decreased by 2%, local revenue increased by 1.8%. Stamp duty increased by 20.7%, and securities trading stamp duty increased by 62.5% [2] - **LPR Quote**: The August LPR quote remained stable [2] - **Previous Bond Market Situation**: On Wednesday, Treasury bond yields weakened, and Treasury bond futures declined. DR007 increased slightly. In July, domestic economic data showed mixed performance, and overseas, the Sino - US tariff suspension period was extended, and the US PPI increase dampened the Fed's September rate - cut expectation [2] 6. Key Data to Focus On - August 20th, 17:00: Eurozone July CPI annual rate final value - August 21st, 02:00: Fed releases monetary policy meeting minutes [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is the performance of government bond futures on August 12, with varying changes across different maturities [1] Group 2 - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract decreased by 0.02% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract remained unchanged [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract fell by 0.04% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract declined by 0.31% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports on the early trading performance of various government bond futures, indicating a positive trend across different maturities with increases in their respective main contracts [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract increased by 0.03% [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract rose by 0.06% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract saw an increase of 0.10% [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract experienced the largest gain, rising by 0.41% [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article reports on the performance of various government bond futures, indicating slight fluctuations in their prices, with some contracts experiencing minor gains while others remained stable [1] Group 1: Bond Futures Performance - The 2-year government bond futures (TS) main contract remained unchanged [1] - The 5-year government bond futures (TF) main contract increased by 0.01% [1] - The 10-year government bond futures (T) main contract remained unchanged [1] - The 30-year government bond futures (TL) main contract rose by 0.03% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper: The copper tariff policy announced by the Trump administration on July 31, 2025, has a scope exceeding market expectations, causing the market to reverse previous gains. Subsequently, copper may return to a fundamental trading logic with a bearish outlook. Short - term support is around 78,000 yuan/ton, and the upside is restricted by uncertain expectations [7]. - Lithium Carbonate: Lithium carbonate is under pressure today. Although downstream sentiment has improved, high inventory restricts the upside. The anti - involution measures have not ended, and the market is in a wait - and - see mode. Future trends depend on the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. - Crude Oil: Entering the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil product inventory has increased. OPEC+ will make decisions on production in September on August 3. Saudi Aramco has raised prices, and geopolitical factors have led to a recent strong and volatile oil price. Caution is advised [10]. - Asphalt: Supply is decreasing, downstream demand is gradually recovering, and inventories are at a low level. With cost support strengthening and policies beneficial for the long - term, asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. - PP: Downstream demand is weak, and the supply side has new capacity and increasing maintenance. With cost rising and policies not yet implemented, PP is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - Plastic: New capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. With cost rising and policies not yet effective, plastic is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - PVC: Supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. With policies not yet having a real impact, PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - Coking Coal: The fundamentals are fair, with inventory transfer and downstream demand remaining strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled, and caution is needed in trading [18]. - Urea: Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate. The 9 - 1 spread has reached a historical low [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of July 31, most domestic futures contracts closed lower. SC crude oil rose over 1%, while glass dropped over 8%, and coking coal and polysilicon dropped over 7%. In terms of funds, Shanghai Gold 2510, Glass 2509, and Soda Ash 2509 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, Polysilicon 2509, and Rebar 2510 had outflows [4]. Individual Commodity Analysis Copper - The Trump administration's new copper tariff policy excludes upstream raw materials, and the scope is lower than expected, causing a sharp decline in New York copper. Domestically, the TC/RC fee is negative but stable. Refineries can still maintain production, but the new tariff may affect export demand [7]. Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate is under pressure. The average price of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate has decreased. The supply - side reform has not ended, and the market is waiting for the approval of lithium mines in Jiangxi [8]. Crude Oil - Entering the peak travel season, U.S. crude oil inventories are low. The EIA report shows gasoline de - stocking, but overall oil product inventories have increased. OPEC+ will make production decisions in September, and Saudi Aramco has raised prices. Geopolitical factors have led to a strong and volatile oil price [10]. Asphalt - Last week, asphalt production decreased, downstream demand increased slightly, and inventories decreased. The cost support has strengthened due to rising oil prices. Policies are beneficial for the long - term, and asphalt is expected to fluctuate in the near term [11][12]. PP - Downstream PP demand is weak, with a decrease in downstream and enterprise operating rates. New capacity has been put into operation, and maintenance has increased. Cost has risen, and policies have not been effectively implemented, so PP is expected to fluctuate [13]. Plastic - New plastic capacity has been put into operation, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The operating rate has increased slightly, and inventory pressure is large. Cost has risen, and policies have not had an impact, so plastic is expected to fluctuate [14][15]. PVC - PVC supply is still high, demand has not improved substantially, and inventory pressure is large. Policies have not had a real impact, so PVC is expected to decline with fluctuations [16]. Coking Coal - Coking coal fundamentals are fair, with increasing Mongolian coal imports and a slight decrease in domestic production. Inventory has been transferred, and downstream demand is strong. After the meeting, market sentiment has cooled [18]. Urea - Urea prices are down today. Supply is stable, demand is in the off - season, and export - driven demand has been mostly reflected in the market. After market sentiment stabilizes, the market will fluctuate [19].