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地缘经济论 | 第七章 制造业:创新驱动增长中的角色与关税效果分析
中金点睛· 2025-09-23 23:58
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the importance of solidifying the manufacturing base in the context of the U.S. competitive geopolitical economic strategy, highlighting the mixed views on its effectiveness in improving employment, national defense, and innovation [2][5]. Group 1: Manufacturing Employment and Economic Impact - Manufacturing has a high employment multiplier effect, creating approximately 2.2 indirect jobs for every direct manufacturing job, which is significantly higher than other sectors [11][12]. - Despite the employment multiplier, the average wage in manufacturing is lower than in the service sector, with 2024 manufacturing average hourly wage at $34.5 compared to $35.6 in services [9][11]. - The decline in manufacturing's share of the economy raises concerns about increasing income inequality, as the service sector shows greater wage variability [9][11]. Group 2: National Defense and Manufacturing - Manufacturing is critical for national defense, with the U.S. Defense Industrial Base (DIB) relying heavily on the manufacturing ecosystem [18]. - The reduction in the number of defense contractors and manufacturing personnel does not necessarily indicate a decline in the defense industry, as actual production output has been increasing [18]. - The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted vulnerabilities in the supply chain, reinforcing the need for domestic manufacturing capabilities to ensure national security [18]. Group 3: Innovation and Manufacturing Outsourcing - Manufacturing is seen as a growth engine, particularly for developing countries, while its role in developed countries is more about high R&D investment and driving IT innovation [19][20]. - There is ongoing debate about whether outsourcing manufacturing jobs weakens innovation capabilities in developed countries, with some studies indicating negative impacts on R&D due to increased transaction costs and reduced feedback loops [36][37]. - The modularity and maturity of manufacturing processes influence the extent to which outsourcing affects innovation, with certain industries being more susceptible to negative impacts [38][39]. Group 4: Tariffs and Manufacturing Return - The article explores the potential for tariffs to encourage the return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S., although the effectiveness and economic implications of such tariffs are debated [41]. - The optimal tariff rate is influenced by the price elasticity of supply and demand, which determines the impact of tariffs on domestic manufacturing [41].
8年3次筹划!这家军转民平台股权改革即将落地?
Zhong Guo Ji Jin Bao· 2025-05-19 15:12
Core Viewpoint - The China Engineering Physics Research Institute has decided to adjust the equity reform plan of Jiuyuan Group, which may lead to changes in the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Lier Chemical, but will not affect the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Jiuyuan Group itself [2][4]. Group 1: Equity Reform Announcement - Lier Chemical received a notice from its controlling shareholder, Jiuyuan Group, regarding the adjustment of the equity reform plan, which may result in changes to its controlling shareholder and actual controller [2]. - Jiuyuan Yinhai also announced receipt of a similar notice, stating that the adjusted equity reform plan will not lead to changes in Jiuyuan Group's controlling shareholder or actual controller [4]. Group 2: Historical Context - Jiuyuan Group holds 23.78% of Lier Chemical's shares and 26.29% of Jiuyuan Yinhai's shares, making it the controlling shareholder of both companies [6]. - The equity reform discussions have been ongoing for eight years, with initial announcements made in March 2017 regarding potential changes in the actual controller [6]. Group 3: Jiuyuan Group's Role and Strategy - Jiuyuan Group is a key platform for the military-civilian integration industry, primarily investing in fine chemicals, IT, environmental protection, and new materials [7]. - The group has 21 secondary investment enterprises, with 6 being wholly-owned or controlled companies, and has adopted a high-tech, industrialization investment strategy [7]. Group 4: Recent Developments and Strategic Directions - The head of the China Engineering Physics Research Institute visited Jiuyuan Group in April 2023 to discuss integrating its development into the overall planning of the institute [8]. - The institute's leadership emphasized the need for Jiuyuan Group to focus on its core responsibilities and enhance its role in meeting technological demands [9][10]. Group 5: Market Performance - As of May 19, Lier Chemical's stock closed at 10.58 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 8.47 billion CNY, while Jiuyuan Yinhai's stock closed at 17.51 CNY per share, with a market capitalization of 7.15 billion CNY [11].