炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 来源：伍戈经济笔记 核心观点： 1．非常道也。年初以来，以全球制造业为表征的景气指标明显上行，已连续6个月维持在扩张区间，增 添了市场对于新一轮资本开支周期的憧憬。地缘风险加剧的背景下，全球经济景气程度为何抬升？这是 否终将有助于我国经济巩固和物价回升？ 2．近年地缘风险指标显著抬升，目前仅次于两次世界大战时期。历史可见，其亦能领先带动全球资本 开支及经济周期。与此同时，尽管市场对于AI科技定价是否存在泡沫有争议，但仍难以证伪其投资进 程正在上下游深化，及长期扩张的基本趋势。 3．上述国防、科技等共振下的资本开支扩张，叠加近期美国最高法院的关税判决，将有利于世界贸易 维持高位。以有色金属为代表的商品价格虽有波动，但其需求的绝对规模似仍有提升空间，供需平衡趋 紧的边际定价逻辑仍将支撑其未来价格走势。 4．展望未来，鉴于经济预期增速目标适度下调的可能性，外需偏强或将明显支撑我国工业生产及实际 GDP，国际定价品类对PPI降幅收窄的作用加大。不过，本轮全球科技、国防等支出扩张异于传统消费 需求，宏观读数和微观体感之间或存差异。 正文： 年初以 ...

在2012年接受《金融时报》的一次采访中，时任德国总理安格拉·默克尔揭示了欧洲面临的核心困境:"欧 洲如今人口仅占世界总人口的7%多一点，创造了全球GDP（国内生产总值）的约25%，却不得不承担 全球社会支出的50%，那么显而易见，它唯有付出巨大努力，才能维持当前的繁荣与生活水平。" 自法国和德国的政府陷入分裂状态以来，欧盟作为一个整体在如何应对国防、技术与资本市场领域关乎 存亡的地缘政治变局上，决策过程变得异常缓慢且痛苦 文｜沈联涛 无论以何种标准衡量，2025年都将作为一个关键的转折点被载入史册。 冲突在许多地区升级，特别是在乌克兰、以色列-加沙-伊朗-黎巴嫩、巴基斯坦-印度、泰国-柬埔寨、苏 丹等地。在气候方面，2025年是有史以来最热的三个年份之一。根据Earth.org的数据，就自然灾害造成 的损失而言，它也是最昂贵的年份之一。美国总统特朗普于2025年4月发动的关税战既造成了贸易不确 定性，也导致了全球供应链的战略性转移。技术在人工智能、半导体和其他领域实现了巨大的飞跃。金 融市场创下了历史新高，不仅股市如此，黄金（上涨近70%）、白银（上涨近150%）和其他稀有金属 也大幅上涨。 2025年12 ...

空中 客车首席执行官：国防领域的规模只能通过合作来实现。 ...

校对：纪元 根据美银对该地区基金经理的最新调查，这种积极情绪在整体持仓中清晰可见。35%的受访者相对于全 球市场超配欧洲股票，显著高于三个月前的9%。 巴黎Optigestion基金经理Nicolas Domont表示："人工智能恐慌交易本质上是正在发生的'创造性破坏'。 当人们不知道局势将如何演变时，就会选择多元化投资，投资者目前对拥有可预测订单簿和收入的公司 特别感兴趣，例如国防工业。" 根据英国国家统计局的数据，受交通、食品和非酒精饮料价格涨幅放缓推动，英国1月通胀率降至 3.0%，为近一年来的最低水平。强化了市场对英国最早3月降息的预期。 另外，黄金、白银同步大涨。 （原标题：刚刚，大涨！创新高！） 【导读】欧洲股市大涨 中国基金报记者 泰勒 大家好，关注一下欧洲股市的表现。多只欧洲主要股指创 下新高！ 2月18日晚间，欧洲股市全线走高，受一系列积极财报提振，欧洲斯托克600指数触及历史新 高。 英国富时100指数触及历史新高。 与此同时欧洲主要国家股指纷纷走高。 分析指出，在人工智能 乐观情绪推动数月上涨后，由于对技术颠覆的担忧以及对巨额支出能否产生实质回报的质疑并存，股市 情绪已转为审慎。美股的挫 ...

Group 1 - European stock markets rose significantly, with the Stoxx 600 index reaching an all-time high, driven by a series of positive earnings reports [1] - The FTSE 100 index in the UK also hit a historical peak [1] - Major European indices showed strong performance, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards these markets [2] Group 2 - After months of optimism driven by artificial intelligence, market sentiment has turned cautious due to concerns over technological disruption and the effectiveness of large expenditures [4] - The underperformance of the US stock market has led investors to seek opportunities in Europe and Asia, with European indices outperforming the S&P 500 this year [4] - Optimism regarding the European recovery and benefits from German stimulus policies are attracting capital inflows into European stock markets, contributing to expected continued strong performance [4] Group 3 - A recent Bank of America survey indicated that 35% of fund managers are overweight on European stocks compared to global markets, a significant increase from 9% three months ago [4] - Investors are particularly interested in companies with predictable order books and revenues, such as those in the defense industry, amid ongoing "creative destruction" related to AI [4] Group 4 - The UK inflation rate fell to 3.0% in January, the lowest in nearly a year, driven by a slowdown in the price increases of transportation, food, and non-alcoholic beverages, reinforcing expectations for a potential interest rate cut as early as March [4] - Both gold and silver prices saw significant increases [4]

卡尼还宣布成立新的国防投资局作为该战略的核心执行机构，以改革和简化加拿大国防采购流程。他强 调，将在本财年实现北约防务开支占国内生产总值2%的目标，并计划到2035年将这一比例提升至5%。 加拿大舆论认为，该战略背后的驱动力是加拿大在武器系统制造方面过度依赖美国。卡尼曾多次表示， 加拿大每花费1加元军费，就有75加分流向美国。 加拿大总理卡尼17日发布该国历史上首份国防工业战略，旨在通过大规模本土投资，简化采购流程及强 化战略自主，重塑国防供应链。 卡尼在发布会上表示，捍卫国家安全与促进经济繁荣是"互为支撑的基石"。该战略将确保加拿大"作为 一个主权国家，掌握自己的命运"。 根据该战略，加拿大政府将在未来10年内投入超过5000亿加元（约合3700亿美元），用于保障国家安 全、经济繁荣及主权完整。其目标是在10年内实现将70%的联邦国防合同授予加拿大公司，并使加拿大 国防工业收入增长240%，改变长期以来加拿大国防工业过度依赖国际供应商的现状。 （文章来源：新华社） ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU leaders have agreed to advance a "Buy European" policy to protect strategic sectors of European industry amid global economic challenges [1][4] Group 1: Economic Context - EU leaders gathered to discuss how to regain economic competitiveness against the US and China during a time of economic threats and political turmoil [1] - Belgium, France, Germany, and the Netherlands are facing a "survival crisis" due to high energy costs, regulations, and unfairly subsidized goods flooding the market [3] - The urgency of addressing Europe's declining competitiveness has been heightened by events such as the sudden halt of Russian gas supplies in 2022 and trade wars [3] Group 2: Strategic Areas of Focus - A broad consensus was reached on protecting and strengthening specific strategic areas, including defense, space, clean technology, quantum, artificial intelligence, and payment systems [3] - The upcoming "Industrial Accelerator Bill" is expected to set targets for local content in strategic products like solar panels and electric vehicles [4] Group 3: Diverging Perspectives - French President Macron emphasizes that "European priority" should focus on specific strategic sectors, viewing it as a defensive measure against unfair competition [4][5] - German Chancellor Merz advocates for a more open approach to trade, preferring "co-manufacturing with European partners" over strict "European manufacturing" rules [5] - The differing views between France and Germany raise questions about the health of the Franco-German relationship, traditionally a driving force in European projects [5] Group 4: Regulatory Considerations - EU Commission President von der Leyen acknowledges the need for caution regarding the "Buy European" policy, emphasizing that proposals must be supported by solid economic analysis and comply with international obligations [6]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs identifies a potential recovery in Germany's manufacturing sector, which is crucial for the European economy, despite recent fluctuations in industrial output [1][4]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - Germany's industrial production has been declining since its peak in 2017/18, but signs of a bottoming out were observed last year [1]. - A report indicates that January's industrial output is expected to rebound by 1.5% month-on-month following December's weakness, driven by order growth and improved business sentiment [3]. - The "Nowcasting" framework developed by Goldman Sachs shows that truck toll mileage and manufacturing sales are more accurate predictors of recent industrial output than traditional PMI data [2]. Group 2: Structural Changes in Manufacturing - The recovery in Germany's manufacturing is not uniform; significant structural disparities exist, particularly in the automotive and energy-intensive sectors, which continue to face challenges [5]. - The defense industry is highlighted as a key growth area, benefiting from expansionary fiscal policies, with expected increases in maintenance and procurement spending from 2024 to 2029 [6]. - The shift in Germany's growth narrative is moving from an export-driven model to one focused on domestic demand and security, with fiscal spending providing a stabilizing effect for the manufacturing sector [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs' dynamic factor model indicates that while order growth is strong, it is concentrated in sectors with significant backlogs, suggesting a longer lead time for production increases [4]. - The underlying industrial momentum is at a recent high, indicating a recovery driven by domestic demand is likely in the first half of 2026 [4].

1月29日午后，军工板块加速走低，军工ETF华宝（512810）一度下探逾1.7%失守20日线，场内高频溢 价，或有资金逢跌吸筹。 成份股跌多涨少，显著分化，航天科技逆势涨停，火炬电子触及跌停。大权重普跌，航天电子、航发动 力跌逾2%。 消息面并无利空，军工行情波动或受市场风偏短线变化影响。相反，商业航天等军工新质生产力领域利 好不断。 1月28日，中国航天科技集团商业火箭公司召开年度工作会议，明确2026年将全力突破可重复使用技 术，坚决打赢主力箭首飞及回收攻坚战。公司强调将高效履行商业发射使命，提升我国规模化进入空间 的能力，标志着中国版"可回收火箭"进入关键冲刺阶段。 C919也有催化。据市场消息，中国商飞今年将加快国产大飞机C919的生产与交付节奏，交付目标定为 28架或以上。年初以来已有两架 C919下线并进入交付流程，如若维持这一节奏，商飞今年有望实现每 10至15天生产一架 C919。 数据来源： iFinD ，截至 2026.1.18 。上述含量占比指数分别为商业航天指数（ 886078 ）、低空经济指数 （ 886067 ）、大飞机指数（ 885566 ）、卫星导航指数（ 885574 ）、 ...

欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表卡拉斯28日在欧洲防务局年度会议上表示，随着美国战略关注点"投向欧 洲之外"，欧洲国家必须采取行动，强化在北约框架下建设"欧洲支柱"，在集体防务中承担更多责任与 能力建设任务。卡拉斯说，欧盟与北约应确保安全与防务倡议"相互补充"，呼吁欧洲加快发展国防工 业。 欧盟负责防务的高级官员库比柳斯在会上表示，欧洲必须尽快在防务领域建立更强的自主能力，并推动 形成跨欧洲的防务能力建设。他表示，"安全靠美国"已成欧洲防务的最大软肋。欧洲需要发展"泛欧洲 能力"，应在北约框架内建设"欧洲支柱"。 据新华社布鲁塞尔1月28日电（记者 张兆卿） 转自：成都日报锦观 欧盟官员：欧洲应建设北约"欧洲支柱" ...