Economic Performance - Recent data shows a significant rebound in consumption growth, with the service production index accelerating and urban unemployment rate declining, indicating strong resilience and vitality in China's economy [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts China's GDP growth rate could reach 5.2% in the first half of the year, with potential for upward revision, reflecting optimism about economic resilience [3] - In May, China's retail sales growth surged to 6.4%, marking the highest level for the year [3] Policy Support - The People's Bank of China and six departments issued guidelines to support and expand consumption, focusing on enhancing macroeconomic financial foundations and optimizing insurance guarantees [5] - The implementation of these measures is expected to unleash consumption potential and promote healthy economic development [5] Real Estate Market - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange proposed to lift restrictions on foreign capital investment in non-self-use residential properties, indicating a potential influx of foreign investment into China's real estate market [7] - Despite the easing of restrictions, the actual inflow of foreign capital will depend on various influencing factors [7] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a continued downturn in the housing market until 2035, while Morgan Stanley suggests the market is beginning to stabilize, with expectations of differentiation in the future [7] Future Outlook - Current economic conditions are deemed more important than future predictions, with the belief that effective policy implementation will lead to steady economic growth and gradual resolution of real estate issues [9]

中国经济丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 再论增长韧性：如何前瞻下半年经济节奏 ——"政策开卷考"系列之五 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 5 月中美关税互降后，景气出现短暂向上脉冲，市场关心，下半年经济增长会否出现节奏变化？ 从领先指标看，内外需在三季度末之前均有韧性，同比增速或逐步走强。但同时，三季度末内 外需可能相继见顶回落，形成明显的增长"陡坡"。此前，市场预期 GDP 实际增速在年内逐季 走弱，但从目前看，前三季度可能好于市场预期，但也将形成一个增长陡坡，或对"应对式" 的政策思路带来多方面考验。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 于博 刘承昊 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490523050001 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BVA882 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 21 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 "政策开卷考"系列 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 再论增长韧性：如何前瞻下半年经济节奏 2] ——" ...