证券研究报告 港股通 小米集团-W (1810 HK) 2Q25 业绩预览：关注"反内卷"的影响 2025 年 8 月 07 日│中国香港 消费电子 我们预计小米 2Q25 收入同比增长 29%，毛利率环比下降 0.3pp，归属于母 公司净利润同比增长 56%。其中包含手机，IoT 和互联网业务在内的原有主 业收入同比增长 14%，汽车业务实现 204 亿收入，环比增长 10%。展望全 年：1）汽车。6 月 YU7 发布后大定数据亮眼，产能仍然是收入的主要瓶颈。 此外，近期汽车行业"反内卷"趋势下，看好汽车行业高质量发展以及行业 参与者长期盈利能力提升；2）手机。海外存储原厂供应减少，存储价格呈 现上涨趋势，建议关注存储价格上涨对手机毛利率的影响。给予公司目标价 67.8 港币（前值：71.2 港币），包含非汽车（44.3 港币），汽车（23.5 港 币）。维持"买入"。 汽车业务：看好"反内卷"长期提升汽车业务盈利能力 我们预计 2Q25 小米汽车出货约 8.1 万台，ASP 环比有所提升，实现收入 204 亿人民币，环比提升 10%，随着出货量爬坡，我们预计毛利率环比提 升 0.5pp 至 23.7%。展 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [8] - The target price is set at HKD 71.20 [8][9] Core Insights - The company's revenue for Q1 2025 reached a historical high of RMB 111.3 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 47% [1] - Adjusted operating profit increased by 114% year-on-year to RMB 9.96 billion [1] - The IoT and automotive business showed strong gross margins, with the IoT revenue growing by 58.7% year-on-year to RMB 32.3 billion [2] - The automotive segment's gross margin improved to 23.2%, benefiting from increased scale [3] - The smartphone average selling price (ASP) reached a record high of RMB 1,211, with a gross margin of 12.4% [4] Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - Q1 2025 revenue was RMB 111.3 billion, a 47% increase year-on-year [1] - Adjusted operating profit for Q1 2025 was RMB 9.96 billion, up 114% year-on-year [1] - IoT revenue reached RMB 32.3 billion, with a gross margin of 25.2%, up 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] Automotive Business - The company delivered 75,869 units of the SU7 series in Q1 [3] - The automotive segment reported a gross margin of 23.2%, exceeding expectations [3] - The first SUV, YU7, is expected to launch in July 2025, with a focus on consumer feedback post-launch [3] Smartphone Segment - The smartphone ASP reached RMB 1,211, marking a 5.8% year-on-year increase [4] - The smartphone business maintained a gross margin of 12.4% [4] - The launch of self-developed chips is anticipated to enhance the company's high-end market share [4] Valuation and Future Outlook - The target price of HKD 71.20 is based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation method, reflecting the growth potential in IoT and automotive sectors [5][17] - The forecasted net profit for 2025 is adjusted to RMB 40.99 billion, with a projected growth rate of 50.06% [7][15] - The report anticipates a continued increase in IoT revenue, projecting a 24% year-on-year growth for 2025 [2]