ab 9 December 2025 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research Iron Ore & Coal Is China steel production up or down in 2025? Figure 1: Weekly iron ore shipments from AU+BR+SA, Mt 780 1040 1300 1560 1820 15 20 25 30 35 07-Jan 21-Jan 04-Feb 18-Feb 04-Mar 18-Mar 01-Apr 15-Apr 29-Apr 13-May 27-May 10-Jun 24-Jun 08-Jul 22-Jul 05-Aug 19-Aug 02-Sep 16-Sep 30-Sep 14-Oct 28-Oct 11-Nov 25-Nov 09-Dec 23-Dec Mt 2023 2024 2025 2024 QTR avge annualised (RHS) Source: UBS Evidence Lab (> Access Dataset). Includes conte ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoint - No information provided in the given content. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore Spot Market - The latest prices, daily changes, weekly changes, and import profits of various iron ore varieties are presented, including Newman powder, PB powder, Mac powder, etc. For example, Newman powder is priced at 778, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of -12 [1]. - Different regions' iron ore varieties have different price trends, such as Australian mainstream, Brazilian mainstream, and non - mainstream varieties [1]. Iron Ore Futures Market - The latest prices, daily changes, weekly changes, and monthly spreads of iron ore futures contracts (i2601, i2605, i2609, FE01, FE05, FE09) are provided. For instance, i2601 is priced at 780.0, with a daily change of -7.5 and a weekly change of -14.5 [1].

For decades it looked as though Simandou’s riches might never be dug up. Now, as the vast mine’s output ramps up, the prize for holding power in Guinea has never been bigger https://t.co/Ts0EU2JwUsPhoto: Reuters https://t.co/ZcwWzTjcoa ...

Market Performance - The ASX200 is the worst performing stock market this year compared to its peers, although it is still outperforming Algeria and Malaysia [1] - Australian unemployment remains at 4.3%, which is considered tight, but similar rates in the US indicate economic weakness [2] Sector Performance - Materials and real estate sectors are leading with a 0.7% increase, while healthcare and IT sectors are lagging, both down over 1% [3] Company Highlights - FENIX Resources announced a 3-year production plan forecasting up to 6 million tonnes of annual production by FY28, resulting in a significant intraday gain [3] - Myer experienced a positive response following a well-received AGM, despite year-to-date returns being down 65% [4] - Andean Silver's prices are hovering just below US$62/ounce, although momentum appears to have stalled [4] Company Declines - Predictive Discovery fell over 12% as Perseus Mining's proposed takeover is no longer superior due to a revised offer from Robex [4] - PMET Resources (formerly Patriot Battery Metals) declined over 5% despite three brokers rating the stock as a buy [5] - Silver Mines Limited dropped nearly 5% as market preference shifted towards Andean Silver [5]

Transaction Overview - BHP 将出售其为澳大利亚铁矿石业务提供动力的电网 85% 股权中的一部分 [1] - BlackRock's GIP 将以 20 亿美元收购 BHP 电网的部分股权 [1] Stake and Ownership - 出售的股权比例未明确说明，但涉及 BHP 持有的 85% 股权的一部分 [1]

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Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: The conference call primarily discusses the metals and mining industry, with a specific emphasis on steel, iron ore, copper, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium markets in China [1][3][5][27]. Steel Market Insights - **Steel Demand**: Steel demand is considered stable, with strong demand from manufacturing, automotive, shipbuilding, and exports offsetting weaknesses in the property and infrastructure sectors. The real estate sector is nearing a bottom, but further modest declines are expected in 2026 and 2027 [3][8]. - **Export Markets**: Steel mills are targeting robust export markets in the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Africa, and Latin America, with significant contributions from the "One Belt, One Road" initiative. Estimated indirect steel exports are around 150 million tons, alongside 120 million tons of finished steel exports [3][8]. - **Production Cuts**: There are no significant enforced production cuts, with minor adjustments due to environmental regulations. Concerns about illegal capacity in Hebei and Shandong are noted, with estimates suggesting it accounts for about 10% of production [3][9]. - **Profit Margins**: Profitability has declined, with margins dropping from RMB 400-500 per ton to approximately RMB 200 per ton. Some companies anticipate steel prices may fall below RMB 3,000 per ton [9]. Iron Ore Market Insights - **Price Outlook**: Iron ore prices are expected to stabilize around US$100 per ton in the near term, with a potential slight softening in 2026 due to new supply from Simandou. The market is projected to remain within a range of US$90-110 per ton for the next two years [16][18]. - **Supply Dynamics**: The China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG) is centralizing iron ore purchasing, currently managing about 50% of imports. CMRG aims to stabilize prices around US$95 per ton through strategic restocking [18]. - **Market Surplus**: A slight surplus in the iron ore market is anticipated over the next two years, with a shift in purchasing patterns noted among steel mills [18]. Copper Market Insights - **Demand Growth**: China's apparent copper consumption grew by approximately 9% in 2025, driven by strong demand in the power grid and automotive sectors. However, refined copper consumption growth is projected to moderate to around 2.7% in 2026 [28][29]. - **Price and Substitution**: Raw material shortages are supporting copper prices, with forecasts suggesting an average price of US$10,500 per ton in 2026. Substitution of aluminum for copper is occurring in some applications, but large-scale changes remain challenging [28]. - **Smelter Production**: Smelting capacity is underutilized, and new capacity additions face regulatory hurdles. The government is expected to implement policies to cap copper smelting capacity [29]. Aluminum, Rare Earths, and Lithium Insights - **Aluminum Market**: An ongoing shortage of aluminum is anticipated, with prices potentially rising from RMB 20,000 to RMB 21,000 per ton. The production cap of 45 million tons per year is expected to be reached by 2026 [5]. - **Rare Earths**: Demand for magnets is growing at around 10%, with export restrictions on heavy rare earths remaining in place [5]. - **Lithium Demand**: The lithium market is robust, driven by electric vehicle sales projected to grow by 30% in 2025. Lithium carbonate inventories in China are declining, with expectations of a tightening market by mid-2026 [5]. Additional Observations - **Scrap Supply**: The scrap market is primarily private, with 80% of dealers being private entities. Supply has remained consistent, but sourcing scrap at current prices is becoming challenging for some steel mills [10]. - **Government Policies**: Ongoing government policies aimed at urban renewal and infrastructure development are expected to support demand across various sectors, particularly in coastal areas and tier 1 cities [8]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections from the conference call, highlighting the dynamics within the metals and mining industry, particularly in the context of the Chinese market.

A Singapore shipping mogul has carved a route to one of the world's richest iron ore deposits, unlocking Africa's largest mining and infrastructure project after years in suspended animation. https://t.co/SNLcqW1RjE📷: Gavin Foo/SPHOL/AP Photo https://t.co/64BsFg0g9L ...

The first shipment from Simandou is set to sail from Guinea to China.The move could shift power dynamics in the global iron ore market. William Clowes has more https://t.co/DJzllP8ccG https://t.co/case506HfK ...

Industry Dependence - China relies on foreign iron-ore deliveries due to its position as the world's largest buyer of the raw material [1] - China cannot afford to abandon key iron-ore suppliers [1]