证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 社会服务行业双周报（第 113 期） 优于大市 中报业绩密集披露，豆神、粉笔、有道等迭代 AI 教育新品 核心观点 行业研究·行业周报 社会服务 板块复盘：消费者服务板块报告期内上涨 5.18%，跑输大盘 1.47pct。报告 期内（2025 年 8 月 11 日-2025 年 8 月 24 日），国信社服板块涨幅居前的股 票为科德教育（39.74%）、东方甄选（22.88%）、华住集团-S（12.91%）、 华天酒店、全聚德、君亭酒店、豆神教育、奈雪的茶、BOSS 直聘、长白山。 国信社服板块跌幅居前的股票为科锐国际（-7.52%）、新濠国际发展 （-5.84%）、天立国际控股（-4.38%）、中国东方教育（-4.01%）、学大教 育（-3.88%）、美高梅中国、九毛九、银河娱乐、澳博控股、北京人力。 行业与公司动态：豆神教育 AI 超练系列更新超练作文与阅读新单元，通过 AI 互动指导提升学习体验。粉笔发布事业单位考试 AI 刷题班与智能音响， 打造"AI+硬件"备考解决方案。网易有道推出多款 AI 教育新品，包括升级 版答疑笔和全面屏听力宝，进一步构建 AI 教 ...

数码家电行业 周度市场观察 Industry Trends 本周看点： AI教育风口下，有人乘风破浪，有人艰难求生； 星际之门的烂尾危机：盟友分歧、融资困局与工程死结； 2025人形机器人下半场：上市、泡沫出清与价值重估。 行业环境 头部品牌动态 投资运营 产品技术 营销活动 2025/8.4-8.10 第 33 周 01 行业趋势 行业环境： 1. AI教育风口下，有人乘风破浪，有人艰难求生 关键词：教育行业,AI技术,行业洗牌,营收增长,净利润 概要：教育行业正经历AI驱动的变革。微软报告显示，86%的教育机构使用生成式AI，居各行 业之首。企业表现分化：高途一季度营收增长58%，净利润1.24亿元，其"三师模式"结合AI 提升效率；51Talk东南亚市场收入激增93.1%，AI互动课件提升参与度。新东方核心教育业务 增长18.7%，但净利润下滑73.7%。网易有道、尚德机构等营收下降，凸显AI融合深度决定增长 潜力。盈利分化明显，技术应用高效的企业如高途、有道实现利润提升，而传统模式企业承压。 未来竞争聚焦技术深度、场景渗透与生态构建，海外市场与政策利好带来新机遇。AI与教育本 质的融合能力成为行业分层 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Dou Shen Education, marking it as the first investment rating for the company [6]. Core Viewpoints - Dou Shen Education is positioned as the first education company aiming to implement AI virtual teachers across its entire product line, which is expected to provide a significant competitive edge and market share capture in the AI education era [1][2]. - The company has a clear strategy to leverage AI technology to create differentiated educational products that surpass existing tools, focusing on high-quality, interactive, and personalized learning experiences [2][4]. - The potential market space for Dou Shen Education's AI education products is estimated to reach hundreds of billions, indicating substantial growth opportunities beyond just replacing recorded classes [5][10]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - Dou Shen Education has transitioned from a traditional education model to a technology-driven approach, focusing on AI and quality education products, which has helped it recover from previous financial difficulties [21][22]. Financial Analysis - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 12.29 billion, 20.48 billion, and 35.74 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, alongside a steady increase in net profit margins [13][14]. - The gross margin for AI education services is anticipated to approach 70%, with operating profit margins nearing 30% as the company scales its operations [11][12]. Product Strategy - Dou Shen Education's product strategy includes a comprehensive AI education ecosystem, featuring AI dual-teacher models and interactive learning tools, which are designed to enhance user engagement and retention [4][10]. - The company has successfully developed a diverse product matrix that caters to various educational needs, positioning itself to capture a significant share of the market [36][40]. Market Positioning - The report highlights the importance of first-mover advantages in the AI education sector, suggesting that Dou Shen Education can replicate the success of other leading internet products by establishing a strong brand presence and user loyalty [3][4]. - The company is well-positioned to disrupt traditional education models and expand into underserved markets, particularly in lower-tier cities, by offering high-quality, cost-effective educational solutions [10][11].

时代 电源讲化 v oling Everything E S peed sis t ( Al技术的发展, 会深刻影响人类的发展。当AI逐步替代常规工作, 人得以解放 这面多精力投入创造性领域 2015年，"互联网+"的浪潮席卷全国，在线教育行业迎来了爆发式增长。彼时，黄河作为字节跳动高级副总裁、"今日头条"产品创始合伙人，正处于职业 生涯的高峰。但他选择离开这艘高速行驶的巨轮，投身"互联网+教育"赛道，创立了伴鱼。 创业之初，伴鱼尝试的是成人英语业务。在成人英语业务中，伴鱼积累了一定的用户与技术基础，但黄河敏锐地意识到少儿英语在市场空间、用户粘性和 长期价值上更具潜力，因此在探索一年半后，2017年公司果断转向在线少儿英语教育。 凭借低成本获客与精细化运营，以及风险投资的加持下，伴鱼迎来高速成长。2018年注册用户突破1000万，付费用户超14万，前九个月营收增长11倍，续 费率高达97.1%，一度接近上市目标。 伴鱼阅读营 在这一阶段，伴鱼的业务扩展为绘本、少儿英语、阅读营、智学、新加坡数学、培优六条产品线。其中阅读营是"双减"后应运而生的核心创新项目。黄河 和团队敏锐捕捉到，新课改中"阅读"在未来十年英语 ...

科技发展日新月异，小屁孩的辅导班都有AI版本的了。 天眼查数据显示，截至2024年，全国名称或经营范围涉及"AI学习""智能自习""智慧教辅"的相关企业，超过4.7万家——比蜜雪冰城的全国门店还多。 AI算法和大模型加持，智能助学系统辅以专业督学服务，提供AI时代的千人千面教学方法，帮助学生靶向检测、精准提分，赢在起跑线上。 这些AI自习室的宣传听起来都相当厉害，给人一种高科技教室的错觉。家长相信了，小镇创业者动心了，一夜之间，AI自习室遍地开花。 结果走进去一看：一排小格子间，几个学生对着一个傻瓜学习机猛猛刷题。一个暑假下来，分数没怎么提，近视度数喜提100。 怎么这么多AI自习室 一旦在小红书上看过"孩子写作业拖拉怎么办"，接下来推荐页就会被"AI自习室加盟指南""暑期高效学习神器""别让你的孩子输在这个假期"等信息密集轰 炸。 从北上广深到四五线县城，AI自习室的身影无处不在。打开大众点评搜索北京的AI自习室，结果有60到70家；旁边的三线城市邢台有14家，就连县城怀 来，都已经开出了4家。 收费标准基本对齐各地的物价水平：一线城市普遍在每月1500到2500元之间，而在三四线城市，价格则控制在1200 ...

"AI教育的创新，不在于功能多全，而在于能否真正'读懂'孩子。"展区技术负责人指着嘟嘟的交互界面 解释。随着京东joyinside模型的置入，嘟嘟响应速度提高到了1.8秒，结合数业智能自有的多模态心理对 话模型，机器人的"积极引导"也让孩子愿意去对话、去提问。"这也变相提高了孩子们的人机协同能 力！"产品解说员补充。 据了解，下一步，数业智能还将深度开发逆商教育、专注力提升等功能，为家长端释放更多"共创空 间"。产品已全线上架京东、天猫电商平台，正值机器人大会期间，研发团队面向社会招募10名"嘟 嘟"家庭体验官，邀请家长和孩子共同书写AI时代的成长课题。 （文章来源：新京报） "我们可以玩'超市算账'游戏呀，你当收银员，我来买东西，算对了就能给你的萌宠'闪电'换零食哦。" 在2025世界机器人大会A106京东展区，一位5岁男童正和心大陆AI儿童陪伴机器人"嘟嘟"畅聊。电子萌 宠撒娇要"洗手吃饭"、互动绘本在关卡中激发孩子"我再想想"……小小的展台引来不少家庭围观，不时 讨论着"机器人到底有啥用"的"时代话题"。 作为连接孩子与家长的"中间者"，嘟嘟一边用互动绘本、萌宠养成等功能成为孩子的"玩伴"；一边通过 家 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the AI education industry, indicating expected performance above the market benchmark by over 10% [2][3][32]. Core Insights - Duolingo's FY2025Q2 performance exceeded expectations, with revenue of $252 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%, and an adjusted EBITDA of $78.7 million, up 31.2% year-on-year, validating the profitability of AI education applications [4][5][8]. - The report highlights the positive sentiment in the domestic AI education sector driven by Duolingo's strong financial results, which are expected to catalyze domestic market enthusiasm [4][28]. - The collaboration between Duolingo and Luckin Coffee has significantly boosted consumer education in the domestic AI education market, with the product achieving over 9 million sales in its first week [4][11][28]. - The commercialization process of domestic AI education products is progressing well, with several products like DouShen Education's "Super Practice" series and Fenbi's AI question-answering system achieving significant sales milestones [4][15][18][28]. Summary by Sections Duolingo's Performance - Duolingo reported a DAU growth of 40% to 47.7 million and a MAU growth of 24% to 128 million, although these figures fell short of Bloomberg consensus expectations [5][8]. - The subscription conversion rate reached a historic high of 8.93%, with Duolingo Super and Duolingo Max services showing strong growth [6][8]. Domestic AI Education Developments - DouShen Education launched "Super Practice" products, achieving a GMV of 17.4 million by July 30, with strong sales driven by effective marketing strategies [15][16]. - Fenbi's AI question-answering system sold 50,000 sets, generating approximately 20 million in revenue, indicating strong demand for exam preparation solutions [18][19]. - Tianli International's AI education model has been implemented in 107 schools, benefiting 250,000 students, and has shown significant improvement in student performance [22][23][24]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the AI education sector, including DouShen Education, Fenbi, Tianli International, and others, as they are expected to benefit from the positive market sentiment and ongoing commercialization efforts [4][28].

Summary of Huatu Shanding Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Huatu Shanding - **Industry**: Education and Training, specifically focused on exam preparation for civil service and other competitive exams Key Points and Arguments 1. **Network Upgrade Strategy**: Huatu Shanding is upgrading city-level networks with populations over one million to delivery points, with Shandong's 16 cities set to complete upgrades by September, enhancing competitiveness against local institutions [2][6] 2. **Unified Operational Strategy**: The company employs a unified regional operation, standardized products, and long-cycle rigorous supervision of written exam courses to improve student performance and resource utilization, addressing cost and management risks [2][7] 3. **Popularity of Direct Train Class Model**: The Direct Train class model is popular in cities, with class sizes exceeding 100 students and gross margins over 60%. The expansion model is designed based on local population and enrollment numbers, achieving profitability within the same year of establishment [2][8][10] 4. **Intellectual Property Protection**: The company addresses intellectual property protection issues by ensuring research and teaching capabilities and updating materials to maintain a competitive edge and student trust [2][12] 5. **AI Tools Integration**: AI tools such as intelligent question banks and interview evaluations enhance preparation efficiency, but traditional in-person teaching remains irreplaceable. AI tools are offered as part of membership services to improve user engagement [2][17][16] 6. **Exam Pass Rates**: Huatu's high-end long-cycle class has a written exam pass rate of 15%-20% and an interview pass rate exceeding 40%, significantly higher than industry averages [2][18] 7. **Judicial and Regulatory Issues**: The company disclosed ongoing legal issues involving shareholder matters and regulatory communications, clarifying that these do not impact business operations [4] 8. **Market Competition Dynamics**: The competitive landscape has shifted due to policy changes allowing graduates to take exams within two years of graduation, leading to increased demand for full-time preparation and intensifying competition among large and local institutions [5][6] 9. **Cost Management**: The company manages costs effectively, with teacher salaries and property costs kept low, ensuring profitability even with increased student numbers [11][19] 10. **Pricing Strategy**: Pricing for the Direct Train classes is set approximately 10% higher than smaller institutions, reflecting the quality of courses and overall preparation costs, which are deemed acceptable by students [13][25] 11. **AI Product Usage Goals**: The company aims for 10 million product calls in 2025, focusing on enhancing product functionality and user habits [3][24] 12. **Response to Local Competition**: Huatu Shanding emphasizes local delivery capabilities over vertical project advantages, adapting to the competitive landscape by enhancing regional operational strengths [26][27] Additional Important Information - **Employee Compensation**: Employee salaries consist of a standardized base salary and profit-sharing bonuses, with variations based on performance and position [22] - **Market Trends**: The average consumer price in the industry is declining, impacting profit margins, but the company has managed to increase gross margins through larger class sizes [20] - **Impact of Increased Enrollment**: While increased student numbers may slightly lower pass rates, it does not significantly affect overall revenue or pass rates due to the company's market share [21]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Dou Shen Education, is actively promoting its new AI-Class and companion robot products through various sales channels, while facing regulatory scrutiny due to past disclosure failures [2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Activities - On August 5, 2025, Dou Shen Education had a financing buy-in of 61.6025 million yuan and a financing repayment of 71.205 million yuan, resulting in a net financing repayment of 9.6025 million yuan [2]. Group 2: Product Promotion Strategy - The AI-Class course is compatible with existing sales channels, utilizing new media platforms such as Douyin, WeChat Video Accounts, and Xiaohongshu for promotion, with a planned official launch on July 21, 2025 [3]. - The companion robot will be marketed through four main channels: collaboration with large 3C retailers, existing new media platforms, exploring B2B cooperation, and partnerships with TV programs and influencers for marketing [3]. Group 3: Regulatory Issues - On July 11, 2025, Dou Shen Education received an administrative penalty from the Beijing Securities Regulatory Bureau for failing to disclose five litigation and arbitration matters from July 2022 to March 2023 [3][4]. - The company failed to timely disclose significant litigation cases, resulting in a total involved amount of 12.042 million yuan and 123.616 million yuan for various cases, constituting violations of the Securities Law [4][5]. - The penalties imposed include a warning and fines totaling 2.3 million yuan for the company and additional fines for key individuals involved [5]. Group 4: Legal and Litigation Context - Dou Shen Education has 36 court rulings and 45 litigation relationships, indicating ongoing legal challenges [6].

AI大模型浪潮汹涌澎湃，00后创业者正一步步走上创业舞台，成为这场技术革新的主心骨。身处这股技术新浪潮之中的Celine和Kejin，两个刚走出校园里 的年轻人瞄准的是AI教育。 作为从应试教育中一路披荆斩棘走出来的Celine，选择做教育的原因简单直接。"我不喜欢应试教育的套路，"她坦率地说，"它忽略了学习的真正意义。"所 以她决定用创业的方式，通过AI能让教育更加贴近人性，让学习变得更有趣、更有效。创业的念头从Kejin在武汉大学读书期间就被种下了，大学期间，他 参加了创新创业班，身边充满了各种梦想和故事，像雷军这样的学长也影响着他。本科毕业后，Kejin放弃了心仪的名校offer，毅然决然投身AskSia创业， 想用AI改变教育。 2023年，当大模型答题正确率还停留在10%左右时，大多数人还难以想象AI与教育能走多远。甚至有人质疑这只是"捷径"或"作弊"的工具。那时，仍在校园 中的Celine和Kejin开始尝试从自己最熟悉的群体——大学生——出发，探索AI教育产品的新可能。AskSia的故事，正是从这样的探索开始。他们共同创立 的AskSia，目标不是做另一个拍照搜题工具或资料生成器，而是打造一个真 ...