观点小结 | 镍 | 定性 | 解析 | | --- | --- | --- | | 核心观点 | 震荡 | 上周印尼对镍工业园区港口物流的合规问题审查令供应扰动风险进一步上升，而主产区正值雨季，红土镍矿易发生液化，原料供应稳定性面临考 验。与供应端扰动频发相对应的是，镍产品12月净进口量大幅增加，而下游需求偏弱使得库存矛盾仍在进一步累积，镍价暂以震荡盘整为主，后 | | | | 续随着镍矿供应趋紧、供需格局预期得到改善，镍价仍有上行驱动。 | | 镍矿价格 | 偏多 | 截至1月26日，菲律宾红土镍矿0.9%、1.5%、1.8%CIF价格环比上周分别+1、+4、+0至30、59、78.5美元/湿吨。 | | 印尼内贸镍矿 | 偏多 | 截至1月26日，印尼Ni1.2%、Ni1.6%内贸镍矿到厂价环比上周分别+0、+3.1至21.5、55美元/湿吨。 | | 海运费 | 偏空 | 上周菲律宾-天津港、菲律宾-连云港海运费环比分别-0.25、-0.25至8.25、7.25美元/湿吨。 | | 精炼镍产量 | 偏空 | 截至2025年12月，中国电解镍月度产量环比+0.56万吨至3.14万吨，环比+21.7%，同 ...

2026 年 1 月 29 日 商 品 研 究 镍：印尼事件悬而未决，套保与投机盘博弈 不锈钢：印尼加剧镍矿担忧，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 144,370 | -1,740 | 1,310 | 3,430 | 18,660 | 23,810 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 14,465 | -75 | -255 | 540 | 1,555 | 1,715 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 404,592 | -118,804 | -341,076 | -666,102 | -380,648 | 248,296 | | | | 不锈钢主力（成交量） | 454,242 | -25,750 | -131,419 | 178,258 | 18 ...

6 composites from Gemini North submitted for metallurgical testing Robust rougher flotation performance with nickel recoveries of 81-85% and sulphur recoveries consistently above 97% under non-deslimed conditions. Final cleaner concentrate grades exceeding 5% nickel, meeting project targets for downstream bioleaching, with grades up to 9.70% Ni achieved in variability testing. ...

Core Insights - Canada Nickel has appointed Ausenco Engineering as the lead consultant for the Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project in Timmins, Ontario, with detailed engineering work set to begin [1][2] - The project aims to commence construction by the end of the year, supported by significant endorsements from the federal government [2][4] - Ausenco has a history of collaboration with Canada Nickel, having worked on various stages of the project since 2020 [3] Group 1: Project Development - Ausenco will handle detailed engineering for the process plant and supporting infrastructure at the Crawford project [1] - The Crawford Nickel Sulphide deposit is strategically located 42 km north of Timmins, near existing infrastructure [1] - Canada Nickel is focused on advancing nickel-sulphide projects to supply the electric vehicle and stainless-steel markets [3] Group 2: Partnerships and Community Engagement - Canada Nickel has established a significant agreement with the Mattagami, Matachewan, and Flying Post First Nations regarding the Crawford project [4] - Ausenco's vice-president expressed enthusiasm about the project's progression and the partnership with Canada Nickel [4]

Qualified Person and Data Verification TORONTO, Jan. 26, 2026 /PRNewswire/ - Canada Nickel Company Inc. ("Canada Nickel" or "the Company") (TSXV: CNC) (OTCQB: CNIKF) is pleased to announce that it has awarded Ausenco Engineering Canada ULC ("Ausenco") a contract to commence detailed engineering for the Process Plant and supporting infrastructure at the Company's Crawford Nickel Sulphide Project, and to provide overall project support as the Company targets commencing construction on Crawford by year-end. Ma ...

Core Insights - EV Nickel Inc. has announced assay results from 15 diamond drill holes at the Shaw Dome Project, confirming significant nickel mineralization in the Gemini North and CarLang C zones [1][2][3] Group 1: Assay Results - All 15 drill holes intersected nickel mineralization, with 14 holes showing mineralization associated with dunite and peridotite host rocks [2] - The Gemini North Zone is approximately 1,000 metres by 500 metres, located at the northeastern end of the CarLang Trend [2] - The Phase 2 program extended nickel mineralization approximately 300 to 350 metres west of previous results, increasing the interpreted strike length to about 750 metres [5] Group 2: Mineral Resource Estimate - A preliminary mineral resource estimate for the Gemini North Zone is anticipated for release in Q1 2026, based on results from both Phase 1 and Phase 2 drilling [5][7] - Preliminary metallurgical tests indicate that the nickel mineralization at Gemini North has improved recovery potential due to better response to sulphide flotation [3] Group 3: Significant Intercepts - Significant intercepts include 0.36% Ni over 12.00m and 0.44% Ni over 3.0m from the Gemini North Zone, and 114.0m grading 0.27% Ni from the CarLang C Area [7][9] - Elevated sulphur content was found in four holes, indicating the potential for continuous higher-grade, sulphide-bearing peridotite and dunite units across the zones [6][10] Group 4: Company Strategy and Positioning - The company aims to leverage increasing nickel prices and is positioned to support North American supply chains for clean critical minerals [3][17] - EV Nickel is committed to environmentally responsible practices and partnerships to develop essential critical minerals [18]

Core Viewpoint - First Quantum Minerals Ltd. announced preliminary production results for 2025 and provided guidance for production, capital expenditure, and costs for 2026 to 2028, highlighting strong operational performance and ongoing projects like Cobre Panamá and Taca Taca [1][2]. Production Highlights - Annual copper production for 2025 was 396 thousand tonnes, within the revised guidance range of 390 to 410 thousand tonnes, but 35 thousand tonnes lower than 2024 [4][7]. - Gold production for 2025 reached 152 thousand ounces, exceeding the top end of the revised guidance range of 140 to 150 thousand ounces [4][11]. - Nickel production for 2025 was 23.2 thousand tonnes, surpassing the revised guidance range of 18 to 23 thousand tonnes [4][12]. Cobre Panamá Update - The Government of Panama will approve the removal and processing of low-grade ore stockpiles, creating 700 direct jobs and generating royalties for the country [2][33]. - Processing of stockpiles is expected to produce approximately 70 thousand tonnes of copper and will not constitute a mine reopening [35][34]. Taca Taca Update - An updated Technical Report for Taca Taca is expected in Q1 2026, with approvals for the Environmental and Social Impact Assessment and water permit applications anticipated in the first half of 2026 [6][40]. Three-Year Guidance - Copper production guidance for 2026 is set at 375 to 435 thousand tonnes, with a slight decrease in Kansanshi output due to increased ore hardness [18][19]. - Gold production guidance for 2026 is lowered due to lower grades at Kansanshi, while nickel production guidance remains unchanged [18][21]. Capital Expenditure - Total capital expenditure guidance for 2026 is increased to $1,000 to $1,150 million, reflecting expenditures originally scheduled for 2025 [30][31]. - Approximately $600 million of the three-year capital expenditure is related to sustainability projects aimed at improving cost structure and productivity [31][32]. Cost Guidance - Total copper C1 cash cost and AISC unit cost ranges have increased due to lower production forecasts and changes in methodology [24][26]. - AISC trends are expected to decrease in outer years as production increases and sustaining capital reduces [27].

Core Viewpoint - The Province of Ontario has selected Canada Nickel's Crawford Nickel Project as part of its One Project, One Process (1P1P) framework, aiming to enhance the efficiency of mining project approvals in the region [1][4]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Crawford Nickel Project is a nickel-cobalt sulphide initiative located 42km north of Timmins, Ontario, and is fully owned by Canada Nickel [1]. - The project is designed to achieve a mine ore production capacity of 240,000 tonnes per day (tpd) and a mill ore input capacity of 120,000 tpd [3]. - It is projected to operate for approximately 41 years [4]. Group 2: Strategic Importance - The designation of the Crawford Nickel Project underscores its advanced state, scale, and strategic significance within Ontario's Critical Minerals Strategy [2]. - Canada Nickel aims to establish a low-carbon mining and clean metals manufacturing corridor in northeastern Ontario, contributing to long-term economic growth and job creation [2]. Group 3: Government Support and Economic Impact - The project is the only mining initiative in Canada to receive endorsement from both federal and provincial governments, reinforcing Canada Nickel's commitment to commence construction by year-end [3]. - Ontario's government anticipates the creation of 4,000 jobs through this project, which is expected to significantly boost the local economy and reduce reliance on foreign sources for critical minerals [5]. - The Ontario Minister of Energy and Mines emphasized the rapid progress in opening this Canadian-owned mine to leverage one of the world's largest nickel deposits [5]. Group 4: Regulatory Framework - The 1P1P framework is designed to improve government coordination and efficiency in the permitting process without compromising commitments to indigenous nations or environmental standards [4]. - Canada Nickel has submitted an impact statement under the amended Impact Assessment Act of 2019, positioning the Crawford project within Canada's modernized regulatory framework [4].

Core Viewpoint - Canada Nickel's Crawford Nickel Project has been designated under Ontario's One Project, One Process framework, which aims to streamline the permitting and review processes for major mining developments in the province [2][3]. Group 1: Project Significance - The Crawford Nickel Project is recognized for its advanced state, scale, and strategic importance within Ontario's Critical Minerals Strategy [2]. - The project is expected to create 4,000 jobs and is positioned to be one of the largest nickel deposits globally, contributing significantly to the local economy [2][3]. - Independent analysis estimates that the project will generate over $70 billion in GDP over its initial 40+ year mine life, with approximately $67 billion benefiting Ontario [2]. Group 2: Environmental and Regulatory Aspects - The Crawford Nickel Project aims to become one of Canada's largest carbon storage facilities, with the potential to permanently store up to 1.5 million tonnes of CO₂ annually, making it the world's first net-zero carbon nickel mine [2]. - The project has already submitted an Impact Statement under the amended Impact Assessment Act, 2019, and is the first mining project in Canada to do so [2][3]. Group 3: Company Background - Canada Nickel Company is focused on advancing nickel-sulphide projects to meet the growing demand in electric vehicle and stainless-steel markets [4]. - The company is pursuing the development of processes for net-zero carbon nickel, cobalt, and iron products, enhancing its appeal to investors in low political risk jurisdictions [4]. - Noble Mineral Exploration Inc. holds securities in Canada Nickel and has various mineral rights and exploration projects in Northern Ontario and other regions [5][6].

Core Insights - China's coal mine output is expected to decline marginally with a negative CAGR of 0.1% due to competition from renewable sources and issues with lower-quality coal reserves [1] - The Asia Pacific region is projected to account for 72.7% of global coal production in 2024, with China being the dominant producer at 71.3% [2] - The US trade policies under Donald Trump are creating market volatility and geopolitical shifts in the mining industry, prompting countries to adjust their strategic positions [3] - Major mining hubs in the Asia Pacific face challenges such as infrastructure gaps, high operational costs, and policy instability [4] - The Asia Pacific holds significant mineral reserves, accounting for 56.6% of total rare earths and substantial shares of other minerals [5] - China produces a significant portion of global minerals, including 51.8% of coal and 43.2% of lead in 2024, positioning itself as a central player in the global mining industry [6] - The outlook for China's mining sector varies across commodities, with critical minerals expected to see growth while precious metals face declines [7] - India is projected to increase its coal production by 5.2% to 1,511.2 million tons by 2030, driven by government initiatives [8] - Other key minerals in India are expected to see negative growth due to mine closures and lack of new capacity [9] - Indonesia is a leading producer of nickel and cobalt, with significant growth expected in both sectors through 2030 [10][11] - The Philippines is undergoing regulatory reforms to enhance its mining sector, focusing on sustainable practices and fair revenue sharing [12] - Nickel production in the Philippines is expected to remain flat due to planned mine closures [13] Industry Trends - The Asia Pacific's coal production is projected to grow marginally at a CAGR of 0.8% from 2025 to 2030, with China maintaining a dominant position [2] - The mining sector in the Asia Pacific is characterized by abundant reserves and strong domestic demand, but faces challenges from geopolitical pressures and internal inefficiencies [4][5] - Critical minerals are driving growth in the mining sector, with lithium, graphite, and uranium expected to see steady increases [7] - The regulatory environment in the Philippines aims to promote transparency and sustainable mining practices, which could impact future investments [12]