Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].