1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news from Indonesia has caused new disturbances in the nickel market, and the departure of funds before the holiday restricts the price elasticity of nickel. In the stainless - steel market, there are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support has shifted the price center upwards [1]. - The trend strength of nickel and stainless steel is both rated as 1, indicating a neutral outlook [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 133,350, down 1,170 from the previous day. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract is 13,740, up 5 from the previous day [1]. - The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 281,436, a decrease of 135,669 from the previous day. The trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract is 140,567, a decrease of 61,676 from the previous day [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - The price of 1 imported nickel is 134,000, down 600 from the previous day. The Russian nickel premium is - 100, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 1,041, up 1 from the previous day. The price difference between nickel plate and high - nickel iron is 299, down 7 from the previous day [1]. - The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan is 14,100, unchanged from the previous day. The price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taiyuan Iron and Steel/Zhangpu is 14,650, unchanged from the previous day [1]. - The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 31,950, unchanged from the previous day. The nickel sulfate premium is 2,470, up 132 from the previous day [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, including treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levying royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and the final fine may be lower [4]. - Indonesia will adjust the 2026 nickel production quota according to industry demand, with the production likely to be around 250 - 260 million tons [4]. - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation with the KPPU [4]. - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, China [5]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has started approving the 2026 mining work plans and budgets (RKAB) [5]. - The Solway Investment Group plans to restart its nickel mine business in Guatemala in a few months due to the rebound of nickel prices and the lifting of restrictions [5]. - Indonesia's BKPM disclosed that ITSS, a subsidiary of Tsingshan Holding Group, has never submitted an investment activity report, and its actual investment amount is not registered [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The situation of nickel - related events in Indonesia is uncertain, and there is a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel mines in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of nickel - iron supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 144,370, down 1,740 from T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,465, down 75 from T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 404,592, a decrease of 118,804 from T - 1, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 454,242, a decrease of 25,750 from T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 142,900, down 2,050 from T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,054, up 1 from T - 1; the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) was 59, unchanged from T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products from January 1, 2026 [3] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [3] - Indonesia plans to cut the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - Indonesian officials said that nickel production in 2026 will be adjusted according to industry demand and smelter production capacity, possibly around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way to Yangjiang, China [6] - Indonesia's energy and mineral resources department has started to approve the 2026 mining work plan and budget (RKAB) [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook for both [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation of the Indonesian nickel - related events is undetermined, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market. The concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia have intensified, and the rising price of ferronickel supports the center of the stainless - steel market [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 145,380, down 2,630 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,645, down 80 compared to T - 1. The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 718,003, down 34,837 compared to T - 1; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 555,399, up 67,119 compared to T - 1 [2] - **Industrial Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 150,800, up 6,000 compared to T - 1; the ex - factory price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,050, up 8 compared to T - 1. The price of 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi) Hongwang/Beibuwan was 14,550, up 100 compared to T - 1; the price of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) Taigang/Zhangpu was 15,050, up 100 compared to T - 1 [2] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Indonesian government has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs have decided to implement export license management for some steel products, effective from January 1, 2026 [3] - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [3] - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [5] - Some Indonesian mines are facing potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government [5] - The Indonesian energy and mineral resources minister said that the 2026 nickel production quota will be adjusted according to industry demand, and the output may be around 250 - 260 million tons [5] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is negotiating with the KPPU [5] - A Singapore - flagged bulk carrier carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on its way from the Philippines to Yangjiang, Guangdong, China [6] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and the trend intensity of stainless steel is 0, both indicating a neutral state [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The situation in Indonesia regarding nickel is uncertain, with a game between hedging and speculative positions in the nickel market; concerns about nickel ore in Indonesia are intensifying, and the rising price of nickel iron is supporting the center of the stainless - steel market [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Nickel and stainless - steel futures: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 148,010, the stainless - steel main contract is 14,725; the trading volume of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 752,840, and the stainless - steel main contract is 488,280 [1] - Nickel industry chain: The price of 1 imported nickel is 144,800, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron is 1,043; in the stainless - steel sector, the 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 14,450, and battery - grade nickel sulfate is 32,800 [1] Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [1] - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2] - Indonesia plans to revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore products and levy royalties on cobalt [2] - Indonesia may significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4] - Some Indonesian mining companies may face fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal land occupation [4] - Indonesian officials said they will adjust nickel production according to industry demand and smelter capacity, with production likely between 250 million and 260 million tons [4] - The KPPU found monopoly behavior in the port storage and logistics of the IMIP park in Indonesia, and the park is in negotiation [4] - A ship carrying about 50,000 tons of nickel ore sank on the way from the Philippines to Guangdong, China [5] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]

Core Viewpoint - The CEO of Vale Indonesia expressed concerns about the company's ability to meet mining production quotas, which are currently only 30% of the requested amount, potentially impacting the supply to downstream smelting projects [1][2]. Group 1: Mining Production Quotas - Vale Indonesia has received only about 30% of the mining production quota it applied for, raising concerns about fulfilling commitments to downstream smelting projects [1]. - The company is urging the government to revise the annual work plan and budget to increase mining quotas [1]. Group 2: Downstream Projects - Vale Indonesia is collaborating with several international companies to advance multiple nickel smelting projects using High-Pressure Acid Leaching (HPAL) technology, primarily targeting the electric vehicle battery materials market [1]. - The HPAL project in Southeast Sulawesi, developed in partnership with Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt and Ford Motor Company, is expected to complete mechanical construction by August, with a design capacity of 120,000 tons of Mixed Hydroxide Precipitate (MHP) annually, requiring approximately 21 million tons of nickel ore each year [1]. - The Morowali project in Central Sulawesi, developed with GEM Hong Kong and Ecopro, is expected to start operations in the fourth quarter, with an annual production of about 60,000 tons of MHP, needing around 5.5 million tons of limonite nickel ore and 10.4 million tons of saprolite nickel ore [2]. Group 3: Business Stability and Future Projections - The existing operations of Vale Indonesia are reported to be stable, with a projected high nickel production target of 71,234 tons for 2025, of which 66,848 tons have been completed by November 2025 [2]. - As multiple nickel smelting and battery material projects are set to commence around 2026, the coordination between mining quotas and downstream processing capabilities is becoming increasingly critical [2].

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's policy signal to potentially reduce nickel mining quotas for 2026 to 250-260 million tons has contributed to a rebound in nickel prices, with LME nickel futures reaching a 19-month high of $18,900 per ton [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Impact on Nickel Market - Indonesia's ongoing resource control policies are reshaping the global nickel market by increasing development costs and tightening production management [2][3]. - Goldman Sachs indicates that if Indonesia lowers its nickel mining quota to 260 million tons, global nickel supply growth will slow significantly, potentially raising the average price to around $18,000 per ton [2]. - The Indonesian government is shifting from an "expansion encouragement" approach to a "managed regulation" model, aiming to enhance its influence over international nickel pricing [2][3]. Group 2: Cost and Supply Adjustments - Since April 2025, Indonesia has raised the royalty rates for nickel mining, with rates increasing from 10% to between 14% and 19% for nickel ore, and from 5% to 7% for nickel pig iron and nickel matte [3]. - The approval cycle for nickel mining quotas has been changed from three years to one year to better align with market supply and demand [3]. - New regulations have tightened the entry criteria for nickel smelting projects, allowing only those with downstream processing plans to obtain industrial operating licenses [3]. Group 3: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite the positive policy signals, the global nickel market is currently experiencing a supply surplus, with production expected to exceed demand through 2026 [5][6]. - The global nickel production is projected to increase from 3.81 million tons in 2025 to 4.09 million tons in 2026, while demand is expected to rise from 3.6 million tons to 3.82 million tons [5]. - The demand for nickel in stainless steel remains stable, but growth in the renewable energy sector is weak, limiting overall demand growth [6][7]. Group 4: Structural Changes in Demand - The demand for nickel is showing structural differentiation, with stainless steel being the main support due to industrial upgrades, while the electric vehicle battery sector is experiencing a decline in demand [7]. - The impact of Indonesia's quota enforcement will be most directly felt in nickel pig iron (NPI) production, which is heavily reliant on ore supply continuity [7]. - The production of battery-grade nickel is expected to remain stable, with mixed hydroxide precipitate (MHP) showing potential for growth due to its adaptability to Indonesian nickel resources [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].