Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The nickel market is in a game between the burden of real - world pressure and the narrative of cyclical transformation, with wide - range fluctuations. The stainless - steel market is dragged down by the real fundamentals, and the disk mainly plays on Indonesian policies [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - For nickel futures, the closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 147,720, the trading volume is 1,132,256. For stainless - steel futures, the closing price of the main contract is 13,885, and the trading volume is 547,902 [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: - In the nickel industry chain, the price of 1 imported nickel is 145,850, the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) is 948, and the price of red clay nickel ore 1.5% (Philippines CIF) is 55. In the stainless - steel aspect, the price of 304/2B roll - rough edge (Wuxi) is 13,900, and the price of high - carbon ferrochrome (FeCr55 Inner Mongolia) is 8,200 [1]. 3.2. Macro and Industry News - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses through the OSS platform for projects producing "restricted products" such as Nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [1]. - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [2]. - Indonesia's ESDM will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [2]. - Indonesia plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 3.79 billion tons to 2.5 billion tons [4]. - Some Indonesian mining companies may face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land, and are negotiating with the government to reduce the fines [4]. 3.3. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of nickel is 0, and that of stainless - steel is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval [4].

在喜忧参半的信号下，全球镍市场迈入2026年。虽然由于预期印尼供应将趋紧，价格近期持坚，但更广 泛的行业预测仍指向结构性过剩，这可能限制持续上涨。 截至1月2日当周，镍期货价格达到每吨16,765美元，周度上涨了近7%，主要受政策面驱动的情绪支 撑，而不是需求基本面的变化。 进入2026年，关键的问题依然是全球镍供需是否能够趋向平衡。 **印尼政策信号加剧不确定性** 主要金融机构对于镍价的中期前景保持谨慎。 世界银行（World Bank）预测，2026年镍价约为每吨15,500美元，2027年小幅上涨至每吨16,000美元。 高盛强调，印尼生产商的利润是关键的波动因素，预测到2026年底价格将跌向每吨14,500美元。 诺里尔斯克镍公司（Nornickel）预测，2026年镍供应过剩约275,000吨，增强了价格持续承压的预期。 荷兰国际集团（ING）预测，镍价将保持区间波动，受高企的库存和迟滞的需求制约，2026年平均价预 计为每吨15,250美元。 印尼正在考虑削减其2026年镍矿石生产配额至约2.5亿湿吨，这大幅低于2025年的3.79亿湿吨目标。尽管 这些政策讨论提振了近期的价格情绪，但市场参与者 ...

Core Viewpoint - Indonesia's nickel industry is experiencing a profound internal contradiction, with nickel exports surpassing coal for the first time, marking a peak in the country's mineral downstream integration strategy initiated in 2014. However, the world's largest nickel producer, Tsingshan Holding, has paused some nickel smelting lines due to global oversupply and profit pressure, indicating structural risks in Indonesia's nickel-centric industrial strategy [2][3][4][5]. Group 1: Nickel Industry Dynamics - In H1 2025, Indonesia's nickel export value reached $16.5 billion, exceeding coal's $14.4 billion, making nickel the largest export commodity [3]. - The success of Indonesia's nickel industry, driven by a decade-long integration strategy, has led to a saturation point in value growth, prompting the government to accelerate a complex industrial transformation towards a complete new energy industry chain [4][6]. - The government plans to reduce nickel ore production quotas from 272 million tons to 150 million tons by 2025 to stabilize prices and encourage investment in high-value products like nickel hydroxide and nickel sulfate [16]. Group 2: Manufacturing and Economic Transition - Indonesia's manufacturing sector has been underperforming, contributing only 19% to employment in 2023, significantly lower than manufacturing-led countries like Vietnam, raising concerns about falling into a "middle-income trap" [9][10]. - The "Making Indonesia 4.0" strategy aims to increase manufacturing's GDP contribution from under 20% to 25% by 2030, focusing on automotive, electronics, chemicals, textiles, and food and beverage sectors [11]. - The strategy seeks to replicate and upgrade the successful model established in the nickel industry, leveraging Indonesia's resource advantages to attract foreign investment in downstream processing [12][14]. Group 3: Electric Vehicle Market Growth - The electric vehicle market in Indonesia is experiencing explosive growth, with domestic EV sales soaring by 215.2% in H1 2025, and BYD leading with a market share of nearly 39% [23][24]. - The government aims to have 1.3 million electric two-wheelers on the road by 2030, contributing 5-8 GWh of battery demand annually [28]. - The RUPTL plan outlines a target of adding 10.3 GW of battery storage capacity, creating a significant market for energy storage solutions [29]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Investment Challenges - Indonesia's aging infrastructure poses significant challenges, with the national grid unable to effectively absorb renewable energy from remote areas, necessitating the construction of nearly 48,000 kilometers of new transmission lines [37]. - The unique "Indonesian model" requires companies bringing foreign capital to also build infrastructure, leading to high upfront capital expenditures and creating barriers for smaller participants [38]. - The establishment of the INA sovereign wealth fund is seen as a key player in reducing project risks for foreign investments, signaling a shift towards a more favorable financing environment for emerging industries [39]. Group 5: ESG Considerations and Future Outlook - Indonesia's green energy transition heavily relies on high-carbon coal power, raising significant ESG risks that could impact product marketability in regions with strict carbon footprint regulations [46]. - Collaborative projects, such as the one between Greeenme and Vale, aim to establish environmentally friendly nickel processing facilities, aligning with global ESG standards [47]. - Despite challenges, Indonesia is on track to create a complete lithium battery ecosystem, encompassing upstream resource extraction, midstream material refining, and downstream battery manufacturing, positioning itself as a critical player in the global battery industry [40][49].

Investment Rating - The report recommends the industry [4] Core Insights - The RKEF project produced 30,463 tons of nickel pig iron (NPI) in Q2 2025, a decrease of 5% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to adjustments made to the ONI furnace [1][2] - The unit cash cost for NPI increased by 4% year-on-year to $10,348 per ton, driven by maintenance costs and rising electricity expenses [2] - The sales revenue for NPI in Q2 2025 was $346 million, reflecting a 6% decrease year-on-year [2] RKEF Project Summary - NPI production in Q2 2025 was 30,463 tons, with a contract price of $11,449 per ton, showing a 1% increase from the previous quarter [1][2] - The adjusted EBITDA for NPI was $33.7 million, down 24% from the previous quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA per ton of $1,107, a decrease of 20% [2][12] HPAL Project Summary - The Huayue nickel-cobalt project produced 20,750 tons of nickel and 1,877 tons of cobalt in Q2 2025, exceeding the rated capacity by 38% [3] - The unit EBITDA for HNC was $4,819 per ton, up 12% quarter-on-quarter, supported by rising MHP prices [5] Mining Operations Summary - The Hengjaya mine produced 5.92 million wet tons of nickel ore in Q2 2025, a 99% increase year-on-year [7] - The adjusted EBITDA for the Hengjaya mine was $41.4 million, a 33% increase from the previous quarter, driven by rising nickel ore prices [7] Financial Overview - Nickel Industries received $34.4 million in shareholder loan repayments in Q2 2025 [10] - The company also received $8.1 million in dividends from the Oracle Nickel project and $8 million from the Hengjaya mine [10][11]