Tankers are seen at the Khor Fakkan Container Terminal, the only natural deep-sea port in the region and one of the major container ports in the Sharjah Emirate, along the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which one-fifth of global oil output passes on June 23, 2025.The Strait of Hormuz is once again back in focus as a possible U.S. intervention in Iran raises the risk of Tehran disrupting one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.U.S. President Donald Trump is considering a range of options ag ...

Group 1: ExxonMobil's Position on Venezuela - President Trump expressed an inclination to keep ExxonMobil out of Venezuela, citing dissatisfaction with the company's response to his $100 billion investment plan for the Venezuelan oil industry [1][2] - Exxon's CEO, Darren Woods, stated that Venezuela is currently "uninvestable" due to the existing legal and commercial frameworks, indicating a lack of readiness for investment [2][3] - ExxonMobil has a historical presence in Venezuela, having operated there twice, but faced asset seizures on both occasions, which contributes to the company's cautious stance on reentering the market [3] Group 2: Industry Reactions and Developments - Other oil executives, such as Chevron's vice chairman Mark Nelson, expressed optimism, announcing plans to double production with partners in Venezuela "effective immediately" [4] - The context of these discussions includes recent military actions in Venezuela, where U.S. forces captured President Nicolás Maduro, who is facing legal issues in the U.S. [4] - Exxon's stock price has remained stable, showing an increase of over 16% in the past year, reflecting investor sentiment despite the geopolitical uncertainties [5]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are expected to decline this year due to an increase in supply leading to a market surplus, despite ongoing geopolitical risks that may cause volatility [1] Supply and Demand - A wave of supply is anticipated to create a surplus in the oil market this year [1] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions related to Russia, Venezuela, and Iran are expected to continue influencing market volatility [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has threatened to exclude Exxon Mobil from future oil deals in Venezuela due to the company's perceived lack of enthusiasm during a recent meeting [1] Group 1 - Exxon Mobil's engagement in Venezuela's oil sector is under scrutiny following a meeting where the company did not show sufficient interest [1] - The potential exclusion from oil deals could impact Exxon Mobil's operations and revenue in a region with significant oil reserves [1]

Investment Opportunities in Venezuela's Oil Industry - President Trump's initiative aims to attract billions of dollars from US energy companies to revitalize Venezuela's oil sector, which is believed to have the world's largest oil reserves [1][4] - The plan includes US companies potentially rebuilding Venezuela's oil infrastructure and reviving production, with an initial offer of up to 50 million barrels of oil valued at approximately $3 billion [5][6] Challenges and Risks - Significant questions remain regarding the timeline and costs associated with increasing energy production, with concerns that the political will in both the US and Venezuela may wane over time [2] - The current global oil market is characterized by oversupply, with declining capital spending in oil due to abundant supply and lower-than-expected demand [3] - Experts estimate that restoring Venezuela's oil production could require investments of up to $100 billion over the next decade, raising doubts about the feasibility of such a turnaround [9] Major Players and Market Dynamics - Chevron is currently the only major US oil producer operating in Venezuela, with the potential to increase its cash flow by up to $700 million annually if production levels are restored [7] - Previous operators like Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips face challenges in recovering assets worth over $9 billion due to past seizures, complicating their return to the market [8] Refining and Related Opportunities - US refiners are already seeing increased interest, with about 140 million barrels of Venezuelan crude processed in 2025, representing 0.8% of total US throughput [11] - Companies like Valero Energy and PBF Energy could benefit from increased Venezuelan crude flows, while Phillips 66 may see upside from the need for imported diluent [12] Broader Investment Themes - The potential for increased tanker operations could benefit companies like DHT Holdings and Frontline, especially if Chevron charters compliant vessels to replace those circumventing US sanctions [13] - Beyond oil, Venezuela's rich mineral deposits present opportunities for mining companies, although the current state of the industry poses significant challenges [16][17] Infrastructure and Long-Term Investments - Rebuilding Venezuela's infrastructure is viewed as a long-term opportunity, with historical precedents suggesting that recovery in post-crisis markets can take years [18] - Investors are advised to consider high-quality regional companies with indirect exposure to Venezuela, treating direct investments as long-dated options [19] Defense and Food Sector Implications - Increased geopolitical uncertainty may benefit defense companies, with potential gains for firms like Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman [20] - Opportunities in food exports may arise if Venezuela's economy recovers, with companies like Bunge Global and Archer-Daniels-Midland positioned to benefit [21] Debt and Macro Considerations - The removal of Maduro has sparked interest in Venezuela's defaulted debt, with potential for higher recovery values as part of a debt restructuring [22][23] - The geopolitical shakeup could influence macro-oriented investments, with implications for oil prices and consumer confidence [24][25]

11 January 2026 | 4:02PM EST Commodities Research OIL ANALYST 2026 Outlook: Prices Trend Down on Strong Supply; Geopolitical Risks Remain Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. For Reg AC certification and ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. President Donald Trump may block Exxon Mobil from investing in Venezuela following the CEO's remarks labeling the country as "uninvestable" during a recent White House meeting [1] Group 1 - Exxon Mobil's CEO expressed concerns about Venezuela's investment climate, indicating it is not viable for investment [1] - The potential intervention by President Trump highlights the political risks associated with foreign investments in Venezuela [1]

Core Viewpoint - Oil prices are rising due to concerns over potential supply disruptions from Iran amid escalating protests, despite efforts to restore oil exports from Venezuela [1] Group 1 - Oil prices extended gains on Monday, indicating a bullish trend in the market [1] - The intensifying protests in Iran are raising fears of supply disruptions from this OPEC producer [1] - Efforts to quickly resume oil exports from Venezuela are ongoing, but the impact on overall supply remains uncertain [1]

Ah, the stock market. A bastion of rational thought, predictable trends, and calm, measured reactions to global events. Or, at least, that’s what the textbooks tell us. In the era of Donald J. Trump, however, the financial world often resembles a particularly chaotic game of whack-a-mole, where presidential pronouncements, often delivered via social media, send sectors soaring or plummeting with the speed of a retweet. The past week, in particular, has offered a masterclass in this unique brand of market ma ...

The bottom line regarding the US-Venezuela situation is the former now has more crude oil supplies to both refine and sell on the global market. There is an argument being made that this will increase the domestic US crude oil price while lowering prices for gasoline and diesel over time. More News from Barchart Get exclusive insights with the FREE Barchart Brief newsletter. Subscribe now for quick, incisive midday market analysis you won't find anywhere else. Both the WTI and Brent markets are in ...