1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.