证 券 研 究 报 告 PVC 行业跟踪点评 原料成本抬升下乙烯法 PVC 不可抗力频发， 推荐（维持） 关注国内电石法 PVC 生产企业 事项： 中东局势持续发酵，全球 PVC 装置不可抗力频发。根据中塑在线塑料门户， 近期全球 PVC 行业迎不可抗力潮，国内外多家主流 PVC 生产企业相继发布不 可抗力通知，宣布暂停或降低相关装置生产负荷，据中塑在线数据统计，目前 全球已有约 5.2%的 PVC 产能处于不可抗力状态。 评论： 行业研究 基础化工 2026 年 03 月 25 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：孙维容 邮箱：sunweirong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360526020001 联系人：徐思博 邮箱：xusibo@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 497 | 0.06 | | 总市值(亿元) | 60,929.02 | 5.00 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 54,603.21 | 5.60 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | - ...

%橡胶产业期现日报 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发明货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整也不作任何保证，本报告反映研究人员的不同观点、见 解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其时居机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或狗价，投 资者强比投资，风险自担，本报告旨在发送给广发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发明货所有，未经广发期货书面授权，任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式 的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货"。 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号1520151500 2026年3月25日 | | | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 3月24日 | 3月23日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 全乳基差 | 16100 -125 | 16000 -145 | 100 20 | 0.63% - | | | | | | | ...

能源化工日报 2026-03-25 原油 2026/03/25 原油 能源化工组 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 66.00 元/桶，跌幅 8.20%，报 739.10 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 350.00 元/吨，跌幅 7.09%，报 4590.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 520.00 元/吨，跌 幅 8.93%，报 5301.00 元/吨。 【策略观点】 严梓桑（联系人） 油品、甲醇、尿素、聚烯 烃、苯系分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 yanzs@wkqh.cn 1.单边推荐开始原油偏尾行空头战略配置。2.我们认为红海地区属于地缘边缘地带，但却更易 持久反复，在利比亚年中增产前逢低做阔 Platts 南北非同油种价差，做阔 Es Sider-Bonny/Girassol 南北价差。3.我们认为当前对高硫重油的估值计价较为完全，考虑加拿 大与委内瑞拉目前的出口放量，叠加美国访华预期，估值上限已见，建议做空高硫燃油裂解价 差。4.当前 INE 原油估值定价已经完全，考虑利比亚与 CPC 利多较为长远，建议做空 INE-Brent 跨区价差。 202 ...

能源化工日报 2026-03-23 2026/03/23 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工组 张正华 橡胶、聚酯、PVC 分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 1.单边推荐开始原油偏尾行空头战略配置。 2.我们认为红海地区属于地缘边缘地带，但却更易持久反复，在利比亚年中增产前逢低做阔 Platts 南北非同油种价差，做阔 Es Sider-Bonny/Girassol 南北价差。 3.我们认为当前对高硫重油的估值计价较为完全，考虑加拿大与委内瑞拉目前的出口放量，叠 加美国访华预期，估值上限已见，建议做空高硫燃油裂解价差。 4.当前 INE 原油估值定价已经完全，考虑利比亚与 CPC 利多较为长远，建议做空 INE-Brent 跨 严梓桑（联系人） 油品、甲醇、尿素、聚烯 烃、苯系分析师 从业资格号：F03149203 15805136842 yanzs@wkqh.cn 区价差。 2026/3/23 甲醇 【行情资讯】 主力期货涨跌：主力合约变动(43.00)元/吨，报 3132 元/吨，MTO 利润变动 11 元。 【策略观点】 我们认为当前甲醇已经完全包 ...

| CENHE 日度 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:2026/ | | | | | 行业板块 | 品种 | 趋势研判 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | | 中东战事不确定性犹存,原油继续拉升,输入性通胀压力加大和 | | | 全球资本市场流动性继续受到冲击,国内中小盘受到拖累。往后 预计股指延续震荡格局,未来随着外部通胀压力的缓和以及 | | 宏观金融 | | | 市场风险偏好的回升,有望整固并重启上行格局。策略上,"中长 线可考虑结合股指期货贴水优势构建多头,注意控制仓位。 | | 置需求、货币政策宽松预期与财政发力带来的供给压力、交易盘 | 国债 | | 止盈行为等多重因素交织下震荡运行。 | | 近期中东局势仍未缓和且有长期化风险,市场避险情绪升温,铜 | | | 价仍有下挫风险。 | | 近期中东局势持续恶化,市场避险情绪升温打压铝价,关注中东 | | | 地区电解铝供应扰动。 | | 全球最大铝土矿生产国几内亚正考虑最早于本月对矿业企业实施 | 氧化铝 | | 出口配额,氧化铝价格拉升。但当前实施方案仍不明确,且氧化 | | 铝供应仍偏过剩,预计短期 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For INE crude oil, consider the long - term positive factors from Libya and CPC, and suggest shorting the INE - WTI spread [2]. - For methanol, it already includes the current geopolitical premium, with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, and suggests taking profits on rallies [2]. - For urea, expect a high - level start in the first quarter. Although there are positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider shorting on rallies. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [5]. - For rubber, the market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, suggest opening new positions or holding existing positions in buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, in the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, there may be rebounds, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, wait for the marginal increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22]. - For polypropylene, in the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, expect the load to further decline to a low level, and the valuation is expected to rise with the fermentation of the raw - material shortage logic, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [31]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to continue to decline, imports to decrease significantly, and port inventory to turn to de - stocking. The oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant reduction in imports, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 9.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.22% decline, at 735.40 yuan/barrel. The relevant refined oil main futures, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 69.00 yuan/ton, a 1.47% decline, at 4629.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 3.00 yuan/ton, a 0.05% decline, at 5493.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy**: Start strategic short - term allocation for crude oil. Before Libya increases production in the middle of the year, widen the Platts north - south spread of different oil types at low prices. Short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread [6]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 95 yuan/ton, Lunan by 30 yuan/ton, Henan by 35 yuan/ton, Hebei by - 10 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by 30 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 94.00 yuan/ton, at 2912 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 238 yuan [2]. - **Strategy**: The current methanol price already fully reflects the geopolitical premium, and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions. Suggest taking profits on rallies [2]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by - 10 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 30 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 23 yuan/ton, at 1855 yuan/ton [4]. - **Strategy**: There is a strong expectation of high - level start in the first quarter. Although there are positive domestic downstream demand expectations, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. Consider shorting on rallies. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [5]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The overall market changes rapidly. Bulls are optimistic due to macro expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears are pessimistic due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, 2.23 percentage points higher than last week and 0.45 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, 3.17 percentage points higher than last week and 6.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons, a 1.7 - million - ton increase from the previous month, a 1.21% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber in China was 93.8 million tons, a 1.32% increase. The total inventory of light - colored rubber in China was 44.5 million tons, a 1% increase from the previous month. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [8][9]. - **Strategy**: The market fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to trade flexibly according to the short - term market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, suggest opening new positions or holding existing positions in buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 166 yuan, at 5735 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5680 (- 50) yuan/ton, the basis was - 55 (+ 116) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 11 (- 27) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2600 (0) yuan/ton, the medium - grade semi - coke price was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the ethylene price was 1250 (+ 50) US dollars/ton, and the caustic soda spot price was 685 (+ 3) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 81.4%, a 0.2% increase from the previous month; among them, the calcium - carbide method was 82.9%, a 2.3% increase from the previous month; the ethylene method was 77.6%, a 4.6% decrease from the previous month. The overall downstream operating rate was 39.3%, a 3.5% increase from the previous month. The in - factory inventory was 37.7 million tons (- 8.1), and the social inventory was 140.7 million tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, before the Iranian issue is resolved, there may be rebounds, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side East China pure benzene price was 8400 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the pure benzene active contract was 8154 yuan/ton, with no change. The pure benzene basis was 246 yuan/ton, an increase of 289 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10300 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton. The closing price of the styrene active contract was 9968 yuan/ton, a decrease of 236 yuan/ton. The basis was 332 yuan/ton, an increase of 386 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 58 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.5 yuan/ton. The non - integrated EB device profit was - 306 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton. The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 16.65 million tons, a decrease of 0.91 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, a 2.10% increase. The EPS operating rate was 58.76%, a 46.59% increase. The ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a 1.20% decrease [18]. - **Strategy**: Due to the ongoing Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated styrene profit is moderately high, and the valuation upward - repair space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8431 yuan/ton, a decrease of 65 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8360 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton. The basis was - 71 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, an increase of 3.92 million tons from the previous month, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, a decrease of 0.77 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase from the previous month. The LL5 - 9 spread was 256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the marginal increase in the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz and short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis was 72 yuan/ton, an increase of 43 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease from the previous month. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, an increase of 2.49 million tons from the previous month, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a decrease of 0.655 million tons from the previous month, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous month. The average downstream operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase from the previous month. The LL - PP spread was - 197 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 472 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [23][24]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, while in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 144 yuan, at 9874 yuan, and the 5 - 7 spread was 256 yuan (- 22). The PX load in China was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease from the previous month; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease from the previous month. The Daxie plant was shut down, and multiple plants had unplanned load reductions. Multiple plants in South Korea, Japan, and Chinese Taiwan overseas had load reductions. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month. The Yisheng New Materials and Weilian Chemical plants had load reductions, and a 1.5 - million - ton plant in East China was shut down due to an accident. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 15.7 million tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a 1.8 - million - ton decrease year - on - year. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of January was 4.64 billion tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation cost, the PXN was 243 US dollars (+ 14), the South Korean PX - MX was 110 US dollars (+ 29), and the naphtha cracking spread was 273 US dollars (- 39) [27]. - **Strategy**: Expect the PX load to further decline to a low level, and the valuation is expected to rise with the fermentation of the raw - material shortage logic, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 128 yuan, at 6790 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 242 yuan (- 6). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease from the previous month. The Yisheng New Materials and Weilian Chemical plants had load reductions, and a 1.5 - million - ton plant in East China was shut down due to an accident. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. Multiple plants were restarted, and a 300,000 - ton filament plant of Hengyou was put into production. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, a 2.6 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the on - disk processing fee fell 33 yuan, to 313 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter the de - stocking cycle, and the processing fee is difficult to increase. The PXN is expected to rise significantly, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 23 yuan, at 4849 yuan, and the 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (0). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease from the previous month. Among them, the synthetic - gas - based load was 74.7%, a 8.4% decrease from the previous month; the ethylene - based load was 62.4%, a 5.6% decrease from the previous month. For synthetic - gas - based plants, some plants of Yulin Chemical and Yueneng Chemical were under maintenance. For oil - chemical plants, the loads of Sinopec Wuhan, Zhongke Refining and Chemical, Hainan Refining and Chemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, Shenghong, and BASF were reduced. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait was shut down, and the Marun plant in Iran was shut down. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase from the previous month. Multiple plants were restarted, and a 300,000 - ton filament plant of Hengyou was put into production. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The import arrival forecast was 15 million tons, and the East China departure on March 17 was 0.86 million tons. The port inventory was 101.1 million tons, a 5.7 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based profit was - 2848 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 2252 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - side ethylene price rose to 1250 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 550 yuan [33][34]. - **Strategy**: Expect the load to continue to decline, imports to decrease significantly, and port inventory to turn to de - stocking. The oil - chemical profit has dropped to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant reduction in imports, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. - For urea, suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. - For rubber, suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. - For polyethylene, suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. - For polypropylene, short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. - For PX, expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. - For PTA, expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. - For ethylene glycol, expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed down 9.20 yuan/barrel, a 1.19% decline, at 761.20 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil futures closed down 19.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% decline, at 4771.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil futures closed up 5.00 yuan/ton, a 0.09% increase, at 5641.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend a short - term bearish strategic allocation, do long on the Platts north - south non - same oil variety spread before Libya's mid - year production increase, and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent inter - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 8.00 yuan/ton, at 2847 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by - 216 yuan [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest taking profits at high prices as it already incorporates current geopolitical premiums and short - term supply - demand has no major contradictions [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast remained unchanged, while in Hebei it decreased by 20 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 8 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by - 22 yuan/ton, at 1878 yuan/ton [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest short - selling as the expected high - level production in the first quarter and the marginal impact of export quotas are considered. There may be short - term demand support when the substitution valuation reaches an extreme [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The market changes rapidly. Bulls expect price increases due to macro expectations, seasonal factors, and demand expectations, while bears expect price decreases due to weak demand. As of March 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 68.64%, up 2.23 percentage points from last week and down 0.45 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 76.69%, up 3.17 percentage points from last week and down 6.11 percentage points from the same period last year. Semi - steel exports to the Middle East slowed down, and there was concentrated export to the EU. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 tons, a 1.21% increase [8][9]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest flexible trading, setting stop - losses, and considering a hedging strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [11]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 52 yuan, at 5901 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5730 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 171 (- 92) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 16 (+ 16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.4%, up 0.2%. The downstream operating rate was 39.3%, up 3.5%. Factory inventory was 37.7 tons (- 8.1), and social inventory was 140.7 tons (+ 0.3) [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect short - term price rebounds but be cautious of risks due to factors such as cost increases and potential supply shortages [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - end East China pure benzene price was 8390 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene active contract closing price was 8443 yuan/ton, unchanged. The pure benzene basis was - 53 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase. The styrene spot price was 10150 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan increase. The styrene active contract closing price was 10204 yuan/ton, a 58 - yuan increase. The basis was - 54 yuan/ton, a 42 - yuan strengthening. The BZN spread was 47.5 yuan/ton, a 27.25 - yuan increase. The EB non - integrated device profit was - 58.1 yuan/ton, a 70 - yuan increase. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan decrease. The upstream operating rate was 71.79%, a 2.32% decrease. The Jiangsu port inventory was 16.65 tons, a 0.91 - ton de - stocking. The demand - end three - S weighted operating rate was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Recommend staying on the sidelines as the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and geopolitical factors cause large market fluctuations [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8496 yuan/ton, a 181 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8375 yuan/ton, a 100 - yuan decrease. The basis was - 121 yuan/ton, an 81 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 tons, a 3.92 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 5.00 tons, a 0.77 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 294 yuan/ton, an 11 - yuan decrease [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Suggest shorting the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the number of vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz increases [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 8671 yuan/ton, a 186 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 8700 yuan/ton, a 125 - yuan increase. The basis was 29 yuan/ton, a 311 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 tons, a 2.49 - ton increase. The trader inventory was 20.61 tons, a 0.655 - ton de - stocking. The port inventory was 7.47 tons, a 0.67 - ton de - stocking. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 175 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan increase. The PP5 - 9 spread was 492 yuan/ton, a 59 - yuan decrease [22][23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term geopolitical conflicts dominate the market, and long - term contradictions shift from cost to production mismatch [24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract decreased by 162 yuan, at 10018 yuan. The 5 - 7 spread was 278 yuan (- 126). The Chinese PX load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease. The Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Many domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 tons, a 1.8 - ton decrease year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 tons, a 1 - ton decrease month - on - month. The PXN was 229 dollars (+ 16), the South Korean PX - MX was 81 dollars (+ 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 312 dollars (+ 14) [26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the valuation to rise as the load is expected to decline and the inventory is expected to decrease, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 64 yuan, at 6918 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 248 yuan (- 44). The PTA load was 77.3%, a 3.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The terminal texturing load increased by 12% to 74%, and the loom load increased by 6% to 64%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 tons, a 2.6 - ton increase. The disk processing fee increased by 42 yuan, to 346 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the processing fee to be difficult to rise and the PXN to have room for significant increase under the influence of geopolitical factors, but be cautious of short - term over - increase [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 71 yuan, at 4826 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was 67 yuan (- 15). The ethylene glycol load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. The downstream load was 86.7%, a 2.6% increase. The import arrival forecast was 15 tons, and the East China departure on March 16 was 1.06 tons. The port inventory was 101.1 tons, a 5.7 - ton de - stocking. The naphtha - based profit was - 2820 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1854 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 1160 yuan. The cost - end ethylene rose to 1200 dollars, and the Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal powder price fell to 550 yuan [32][33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Expect the load to decline, imports to decrease, and inventory to turn into a de - stocking cycle. Be cautious of short - term over - increase [34].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a strategic short - position configuration, do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types and short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread and INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profit at high prices [4] - For urea, short it on rallies as the domestic contradiction is not prominent in the context of high supply and demand, and the export quota has little cost - effectiveness. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] - For rubber, trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] - For polypropylene, the short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures rose 73.10 yuan/barrel, or 11.26%, to 722.30 yuan/barrel; high - sulfur fuel oil rose 392.00 yuan/ton, or 9.20%, to 4653.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 730.00 yuan/ton, or 14.83%, to 5653.00 yuan/ton [1] - **Strategy**: Start a strategic short - position configuration; do long the spread of Platts north - south non - identical oil types; short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread; short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: The main contract changed by 120.00 yuan/ton, reported at 2726 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by - 98 yuan [4] - **Strategy**: Take profit at high prices as it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions [4] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Hubei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China did not change. The overall basis was reported at - 15 yuan/ton. The main contract changed by 3 yuan/ton, reported at 1875 yuan/ton [6] - **Strategy**: Short it on rallies. There may be short - term marginal support for demand when the substitution valuation reaches the extreme [7] Rubber - **Market Information**: The market was affected by refinery shutdowns and policy expectations, leading to a rebound in related products. The overall market changed rapidly. Bulls and bears had different views. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, and that of semi - steel tires was 73.52%. As of March 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 138.3 million tons. Spot prices of some products had changes [9][10][11] - **Strategy**: Trade flexibly according to the market, set stop - losses, and consider opening or holding a long position in NR and a short position in RU2609 for hedging [12] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 49 yuan to 5620 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5650 (+380) yuan/ton, the basis was 30 (+331) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 13 (+16) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate was 81.1%, a 1% decrease. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, an 18.7% increase. Factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14] - **Strategy**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious as it has risen too much [16] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The price of East China pure benzene rose 650 yuan/ton to 8635 yuan/ton. The active contract of pure benzene closed at 8297 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton. The basis of pure benzene expanded by 400 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene rose 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton. The active contract of styrene closed at 9926 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The basis of styrene weakened by 6 yuan/ton. The BZN spread decreased by 38.75 yuan/ton. The non - integrated device profit of EB decreased by 355.5 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 0.91 million tons to 16.65 million tons. The weighted operating rate of three S was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [18] - **Strategy**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to high, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8236 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8575 yuan/ton, up 750 yuan/ton. The basis was 339 yuan/ton, strengthening by 668 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a 0.76% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 57.54 million tons, accumulating 3.92 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.00 million tons, de - stocking 0.77 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a 1.38% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 302 yuan/ton, narrowing by 46 yuan/ton [21] - **Strategy**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread on rallies [22] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 8303 yuan/ton, up 106 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8650 yuan/ton, up 550 yuan/ton. The basis was 347 yuan/ton, strengthening by 444 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.42%, a 0.44% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, accumulating 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, de - stocking 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, de - stocking 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a 9.13% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 67 yuan/ton, narrowing by 24 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 552 yuan/ton, expanding by 1 yuan/ton [23] - **Strategy**: The short - term geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and the long - term contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [24] PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 686 yuan to 10218 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 88 US dollars to 1305 US dollars. The basis was 154 yuan (+19), and the 5 - 7 spread was 546 yuan (+134). The Chinese load was 84.7%, a 5.7% decrease; the Asian load was 76.9%, a 6.3% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices reduced their loads. The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. In early March, South Korea's PX exports to China were 15.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8 million tons. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1 million tons. The PXN was 342 US dollars (+32), the South Korean PX - MX was 80 US dollars (- 32), and the naphtha crack spread was 189 US dollars (+17) [26] - **Strategy**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March. The supply - demand structure of PX and PTA is strong, but be cautious as it has risen too much [27] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 338 yuan to 6998 yuan. The East China spot price rose 710 yuan to 7030 yuan. The basis was - 22 yuan (- 8), and the 5 - 9 spread was 392 yuan (+26). The PTA load was 80.1%, a 0.9% decrease. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 262.3 million tons, accumulating 2.6 million tons. The spot processing fee of PTA rose 247 yuan to 226 yuan, and the on - disk processing fee fell 112 yuan to 295 yuan [28] - **Strategy**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee may rise, but be cautious as it has risen too much [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 76 yuan to 4653 yuan. The East China spot price rose 315 yuan to 4715 yuan. The basis was - 58 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 117 yuan (- 26). The supply - side load was 66.8%, a 5.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas devices had maintenance or load reduction. The downstream load was 87.2%, a 3.1% increase. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure on March 11 was 1.2 million tons. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, accumulating 6.6 million tons. The naphtha - based production profit was - 2155 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 1216 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost - side ethylene rose to 970 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [31] - **Strategy**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the port inventory is expected to de - stock. However, be cautious as it has risen too much [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current oil price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap due to Iran's supply disruption. Considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, a mid - term layout is recommended. Specific strategies include a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, it has fully priced in the current geopolitical premium, and with no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. - For urea, there is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. - For rubber, it is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. - For PVC, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. - For PX, the load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. - For ethylene glycol, the foreign device maintenance volume has increased significantly, and it is expected to enter a de - stocking cycle. The oil - chemical profit has fallen to a historical low, and there is an expectation of significant import shrinkage, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [32]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 70.40 yuan/barrel, a decline of 9.61%, at 662.00 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, closed down 221.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 4.87%, at 4318.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 68.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.33%, at 5050.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Adopt a mid - term layout strategy, including a short - term bearish strategy for crude oil, widening the price difference of different oil types in the Red Sea area, shorting the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and shorting the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 80 yuan/ton, in Lunan by 65 yuan/ton, in Henan by 0 yuan/ton, in Hebei by - 110 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia by - 25 yuan/ton. The main contract of methanol futures changed by 59.00 yuan/ton, at 2658 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 50 yuan [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Since methanol has fully priced in the geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, it is recommended to take profits at high prices [4]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot prices in Shandong and Hubei changed by 10 yuan/ton, in Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and in the Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 12 yuan/ton. The main contract of urea futures changed by 16 yuan/ton, at 1872 yuan/ton [6]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is a strong expectation of high production in the first quarter. Although there is a positive expectation for domestic downstream demand, the domestic contradiction is not prominent. It is recommended to short at high prices. When the substitution valuation of urea reaches the extreme, there may be short - term marginal positive support for demand [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a sharp drop in crude oil, which in turn drove down the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The market changes rapidly. The long and short sides have different views. The long side of natural rubber (RU) is optimistic due to factors such as limited rubber production in Southeast Asia, seasonal expectations, and improved demand in China. The short side is pessimistic due to uncertain macro - expectations, increased supply, and seasonal off - peak demand. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, 34.11 percentage points higher than last week and 2.35 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, 35.17 percentage points higher than last week and 8.89 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of March 1, 2026, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 138.3 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7 million tons, an increase of 1.21%. The total social inventory of dark - colored rubber was 93.8 million tons, an increase of 1.32%. The total social inventory of light - colored rubber was 44.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao increased by 0.36 million tons to 69.01 million tons [9][10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to respond flexibly, trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. For hedging, it is recommended to open new positions or continue to hold positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 contract [12]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 342 yuan, at 5571 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 5270 (+120) yuan/ton, the basis was - 301 (-222) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 29 (+60) yuan/ton. The cost - side calcium carbide price in Wuhai was 2500 (+50) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 970 (+20) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 655 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 80.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene method was 82.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a month - on - month increase of 18.7%. The in - plant inventory was 45.8 million tons (-4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+5.1) [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term fundamentals are weak, but the narrative logic is turning to expectations. Before the Iranian issue is resolved, it is expected to rebound, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [16]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost - side price of East China pure benzene was 7755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 8047 yuan/ton, a decrease of 220 yuan/ton; the pure benzene basis was - 292 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 10000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 9820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 95 yuan/ton; the basis was 180 yuan/ton, a weakening of 1905 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 196.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was 327.55 yuan/ton, an increase of 208.8 yuan/ton. The spread between the first and second consecutive contracts of EB was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a decrease of 0.13%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, an increase of 1.75 million tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 40.79%, an increase of 10.34%. The PS operating rate was 51.50%, an increase of 2.10%; the EPS operating rate was 58.76%, an increase of 46.59%; the ABS operating rate was 69.50%, a decrease of 1.20% [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the easing of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene have fallen. The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and it is recommended to wait and see with an empty position [19]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polyethylene contract was 8154 yuan/ton, an increase of 387 yuan/ton. The spot price was 7825 yuan/ton, an increase of 175 yuan/ton. The basis was - 329 yuan/ton, a weakening of 212 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.77%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.76%. The production enterprise inventory was 52 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.62 million tons, and the trader inventory was 5.57 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.21 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 30%, a month - on - month increase of 1.38%. The LL5 - 9 spread was 348 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 25 yuan/ton [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With the cooling of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the spot price has risen. It is recommended to short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread at high prices [22]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main polypropylene contract was 8197 yuan/ton, an increase of 377 yuan/ton. The spot price was 8100 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton. The basis was - 97 yuan/ton, a weakening of 177 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 68.86%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.69%. The production enterprise inventory was 68 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.49 million tons, the trader inventory was 20.61 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.655 million tons, and the port inventory was 7.47 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.67 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 45.87%, a month - on - month increase of 9.13%. The LL - PP spread was - 43 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was 551 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 56 yuan/ton [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. In the short term, the geopolitical conflict dominates the market, and in the long term, the contradiction shifts from the cost side to the production mismatch [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract rose 630 yuan, at 9532 yuan. The PX CFR price rose 66 US dollars, at 1217 US dollars. The basis was 135 yuan (-114), and the 5 - 7 spread was 412 yuan (+88). The domestic PX load was 90.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 2%; the Asian load was 83.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7%. A 2.5 - million - ton PX plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical was under maintenance, and the Daxie plant was shut down. Overseas, a 770,000 - ton PX plant of South Korea's S - oil was under maintenance, and a 550,000 - ton plant of GS was operating at a reduced load. The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 157,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of March, a year - on - year decrease of 18,000 tons. The inventory at the end of January was 4.64 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons. The PXN was 310 US dollars (-45), the South Korean PX - MX was 112 US dollars (+18), and the naphtha cracking spread was 172 US dollars (-162) [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The PX load is expected to decline significantly in March, and it is gradually entering a de - stocking cycle. The supply - demand structure is strong, and the valuation is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [28]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 460 yuan, at 6660 yuan. The East China spot price rose 140 yuan, at 6320 yuan. The basis was - 14 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 366 yuan (+66). The PTA load was 81%, a month - on - month increase of 4.4%. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on March 6 was 2.623 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26,000 tons. The PTA spot processing fee fell 198 yuan, to - 22 yuan, and the on - market processing fee rose 47 yuan, to 407 yuan [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is difficult to enter a de - stocking cycle. The processing fee has fallen back, and the PXN is expected to rise, but be cautious as the price has risen too much [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 272 yuan, at 4577 yuan. The East China spot price fell 8 yuan, at 4400 yuan. The basis was - 23 yuan (-25), and the 5 - 9 spread was 143 yuan (+137). The ethylene glycol load was 73.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.7%; among them, the syngas - based load was 83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1%; the ethylene - based load was 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.3%. Many domestic and overseas plants were under maintenance or operating at a reduced load. The downstream load was 83.5%, a month - on - month increase of 4%. The import arrival forecast was 78,000 tons, and the East China departure volume on March 10 was 11,000 tons. The port inventory was 1.068 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 66,000 tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1940 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 1212 yuan, and the coal - based profit was 661 yuan. The

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. - For methanol, since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. - For urea, due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. - For rubber, treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609 [14]. - For PVC, although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, with the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. - For polyethylene, with the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. - For polypropylene, the short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. - For PX, although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. - For PTA, it is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. - For ethylene glycol, the load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 80.30 yuan/barrel, a 10.76% decline, at 666.30 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 51.00 yuan/ton, a 1.15% decline, to 4386.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil fell 91.00 yuan/ton, an 1.82% decline, to 4908.00 yuan/ton [1]. - **Strategic Views**: Start a bearish strategic allocation, widen the price difference between different oil grades in the Red Sea region before Libya's mid - year production increase, short the high - sulfur fuel oil cracking spread, and short the INE - Brent cross - regional spread [2]. Methanol - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Jiangsu changed by - 285 yuan/ton, Shandong (Lunan) by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 130 yuan/ton, Hebei by 195 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 120 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 209.00 yuan/ton, closing at 2549 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 629 yuan [4]. - **Strategic Views**: Since it already includes the current geopolitical premium and there are no major short - term supply - demand contradictions, take profits when the price is high [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: In the spot market, prices in Shandong, Henan, and Hubei changed by 20 yuan/ton, Hebei and Shanxi by 0 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at 4 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 49 yuan/ton, closing at 1856 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategic Views**: Due to the expected increase in production in the first quarter and limited positive impact on quotas, short it when the price is high as the fundamental outlook is bearish [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The macro - situation led to a rise in crude oil, driving up the price of butadiene and butadiene rubber (BR). The price of BR rose much more than that of natural rubber, which had a positive impact on the prices of RU and NR. The overall market changed rapidly, and there were different views on the market trend. As of March 5, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 66.41%, up 34.11 percentage points from the previous week and down 2.35 percentage points year - on - year. The operating load of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.52%, up 35.17 percentage points from the previous week and down 8.89 percentage points year - on - year. As of February 23, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 136.6 million tons, a 5.4% increase from the previous month. As of February 24, 2026, the inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 million tons to 67.21 million tons [11][12]. - **Strategic Views**: Treat BR as strong in the short term. If BR turns weak, consider shorting RU. Hedge by buying NR and shorting RU2609. Trade in the short - term according to the market and set stop - losses [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 237 yuan, closing at 5229 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4980 (- 780) yuan/ton, the basis was - 249 (- 483) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (+ 22) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 (+ 125) yuan/ton, and the price of semi - coke was 735 (0) yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 81.1%, a 1% decrease from the previous period. The downstream operating rate was 35.8%, a 18.7% increase from the previous period. The factory inventory was 45.8 million tons (- 4.6), and the social inventory was 140.4 million tons (+ 5.1) [15]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the short - term fundamentals are weak, the narrative is turning to expectations. It may rebound before the Iranian issue is resolved, but be cautious of the excessive rise [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene in East China was 7685 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The closing price of the active contract was 8007 yuan/ton, a 1740 - yuan/ton decline. The basis of pure benzene was - 322 yuan/ton, a 1592 - yuan/ton reduction. The spot price of styrene was 12000 yuan/ton, a 3000 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active contract was 9915 yuan/ton, a 328 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 2085 yuan/ton, a 2672 - yuan/ton strengthening. The BZN spread was 186 yuan/ton, a 5.62 - yuan/ton decline. The profit of non - integrated EB units was 750.85 yuan/ton, a 535.6 - yuan/ton increase. The upstream operating rate was 74.11%, a 0.13% decrease. The inventory in Jiangsu ports was 17.56 million tons, a 1.75 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 10.34% increase [19]. - **Strategic Views**: With the easing of the Middle East conflict, the valuation repair space for styrene is shrinking. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7767 yuan/ton, a 177 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7650 yuan/ton, a 1750 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was - 117 yuan/ton, a 1573 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 86.73%, a 0.54% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 53.62 million tons, a 4.35 - million - ton decrease, and the trader inventory was 5.77 million tons, a 1.08 - million - ton increase. The downstream average operating rate was 20%, a 1.78% increase. The LL5 - 9 spread was 323 yuan/ton, a 135 - yuan/ton expansion [22]. - **Strategic Views**: With the cooling of the Middle East conflict, short the LL2605 - LL2609 contract spread when the price is high [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 7820 yuan/ton, a 214 - yuan/ton decline. The spot price was 7900 yuan/ton, a 1450 - yuan/ton decline. The basis was 80 yuan/ton, a 1236 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.54% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 65.51 million tons, an 8.48 - million - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 21.26 million tons, a 3.71 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 8.14 million tons, a 0.72 - million - ton decrease. The downstream average operating rate was 36.74%, an 8.49% increase. The LL - PP spread was - 53 yuan/ton, a 37 - yuan/ton expansion. The PP5 - 9 spread was 495 yuan/ton, a 146 - yuan/ton expansion [25]. - **Strategic Views**: The short - term market is dominated by the geopolitical conflict, and the long - term contradiction is shifting from cost to production mismatch [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 126 yuan, closing at 8902 yuan. The PX CFR fell 195 US dollars, to 1151 US dollars. The basis was 249 yuan (- 1452), and the 5 - 7 spread was 324 yuan (+ 20). The operating load in China was 90.4%, a 2% decrease, and the Asian load was 83.2%, a 1.7% decrease. Some domestic and overseas units were under maintenance or reduced production. The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. In February, South Korea's PX exports to China were 41.5 million tons, a 0.7 - million - ton increase year - on - year. The inventory at the end of January was 464 million tons, a 1 - million - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 303 US dollars (+ 20), the South Korean PX - MX was 129 US dollars (- 11), and the naphtha cracking spread was 92 US dollars (- 54) [28]. - **Strategic Views**: Although the current load is high, it is expected to decline significantly in March, and the medium - term supply - demand structure is strong. However, beware of the short - term excessive rise [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 116 yuan, closing at 6200 yuan. The East China spot price fell 1020 yuan, to 6180 yuan. The basis was - 15 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was 300 yuan (+ 54). The PTA load was 81%, a 4.4% increase. Some units were under maintenance or resumed production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 27 was 259.7 million tons, a 9.5 - million - ton increase. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 15 yuan, to 176 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 34 yuan, to 360 yuan [31]. - **Strategic Views**: It is difficult to enter the inventory - reduction cycle. The PXN still has room for upward valuation in the context of the Middle East situation, but be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell 292 yuan, closing at 4305 yuan. The East China spot price fell 405 yuan, to 4408 yuan. The basis was 2 yuan (- 35), and the 5 - 9 spread was 6 yuan (- 100). The supply - side load was 73.3%, a 5.7% decrease, with some domestic and overseas units under maintenance or reduced production. The downstream load was 83.5%, a 4% increase. The terminal operating rates of texturing and weaving increased. The import arrival forecast was 7.8 million tons, and the East China departure was 1 million tons on March 9. The port inventory was 106.8 million tons, a 6.6 - million - ton increase. The naphtha - based production profit was - 1673 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 724 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 661 yuan. The cost of ethylene rose to 950 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth bituminous coal fines fell to 580 yuan [33]. - **Strategic Views**: The load is expected to decline, imports are expected to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline. However, be cautious of the short - term excessive rise [34].