能源化工日报 2026-02-06 2026/02/06 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收涨 5.20 元/桶，涨幅 1.13%，报 463.50 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 48.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.73%，报 2824.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收涨 39.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.20%，报 3285.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存去库 3.46 百万桶至 420.30 百万桶，环比去库 0.82%；SPR 补库 0.21 百万桶至 415.21 百万桶，环比补库 0.05%；汽油库存累库 0.69 百万桶 至 257.90 百万桶，环比累库 0.27%；柴油库存去库 5.55 百万桶至 127.37 百万桶，环比去库 4.18%；燃料油库存累库 0.17 百万桶至 23.69 百万桶，环比累库 0.72%；航空煤油库存去库 0.66 百万桶至 42.38 百万桶，环比去库 1.54%。 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 【策略观点】 当前油 ...

文字早评 2026/02/05 星期四 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话； 2、商业航天首个卫星测发技术厂房诞生，未来可将单箭发射效率提升 100%，组网成本降低 30%以上， 保障每年 60 次以上的高频发射能力； 3、工信部：突破算力芯片、工业大模型等关键技术 做优应用生态； 4、央行：做好 2026 年信贷市场工作 着力支持扩大内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域。 基差年化比率： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.09%/1.01%/3.86%/4.26%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-9.14%/-1.63%/5.38%/5.34%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-9.64%/0.42%/10.61%/8.86%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-2.65%/-0.78%/0.60%/2.41%。 【策略观点】 近期市场轮动节奏加快，热点板块持续性不佳，临近春节市场成交量也有所回落。中长期看政策支持资 本市场的态度未变，短期关注市场的节奏，策略上以逢低做多的思路为主。 国债 【行情资讯】 行情方面：周三，TL 主力合约收于 111.700 ，环比变化- ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Bullish" rating to the precious metals and new energy sectors, and "Neutral" or "Wait-and-See" ratings to most other sectors [1] Core Viewpoints - In the context of low interest rates and an "asset shortage", domestic market funds remain abundant, and the stock index is expected to maintain a long-term upward trend despite short-term volatility [1] - The bond market is favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks [1] - Metal prices, including copper, aluminum, and nickel, are expected to stabilize and rebound after the release of macro risks, although they are subject to various supply and demand factors and policy uncertainties [1] - Agricultural product prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, weather, and policy. For example, palm oil is expected to be volatile and bullish, while cotton is in a situation of "support but no driver" [1] - Energy and chemical product prices are influenced by factors like crude oil prices, supply and demand fundamentals, and geopolitical situations. For instance, PTA and ethylene glycol prices have shown different trends due to various factors [1] Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock index: Expected to consolidate after a volume-reduced rebound, with a long-term upward trend intact due to abundant funds and economic recovery [1] - Bond futures: Favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but short-term interest rate risks are highlighted [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: After a significant correction, prices are expected to stabilize and rebound as macro risks are released, with industry fundamentals providing support [1] - Aluminum: Prices dropped due to rising macro risk aversion but are expected to recover as the supply narrative continues and risks are released [1] - Alumina: Supply exceeds demand, and prices are under pressure but are expected to fluctuate around the cost line [1] - Zinc: The cost center is stabilizing, and prices are expected to rebound after a correction due to increased risk aversion [1] - Nickel: Short-term prices are expected to stabilize and rebound, but long-term high global inventories may still exert pressure. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policies and macro sentiment [1] - Stainless steel: Futures prices are expected to fluctuate, with support from the raw material end and repeated macro sentiment. Short-term trading is recommended [1] - Tin: Prices rebounded strongly after a mine accident and significant deleveraging, but high short-term volatility requires risk management [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and silver: Market sentiment is recovering, but strong US PMI data may slow the short-term upward momentum [1] - Platinum and palladium: Short-term support exists due to Trump's plan to establish a key mineral reserve and the EU's consideration of sanctions on Russian platinum exports [1] - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing, and the production schedules of polysilicon and organic silicon declined in December [1] - Polysilicon: In the off-season for new energy vehicles, but storage demand is strong. Prices have risen significantly and may need to correct [1] - Lithium carbonate: Expectations are strong, but the spot market is weak, and the continuation of price increases lacks momentum [1] Black Metals - Rebar and hot-rolled coil: Unilateral long positions are advised to exit, and cash-and-carry arbitrage positions can be considered due to factors such as high production and inventory [1] - Iron ore: There is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long positions is not recommended [1] - Coke and coking coal: In the off-season, the focus is on capital sentiment, and opportunities to sell at high prices or establish cash-and-carry arbitrage positions are recommended [1] - Glass and soda ash: Weak current supply and demand are intertwined with strong expectations, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Expected to be volatile and bullish as the main consuming countries start purchasing and production areas may reduce production and inventory [1] - Cotton: Currently in a situation of "support but no driver", and future attention should be paid to factors such as policy, planting area, and seasonal demand [1] - Sugar: There is a consensus on short positions due to global oversupply and increased domestic production, but the cost provides support at lower prices [1] - Grains: Before the Spring Festival, the market is expected to correct as pre-holiday stocking ends and funds take profits [1] - Soybeans: Unilateral expectations are for a weakening trend due to factors such as expected rainfall in Argentina and sufficient Brazilian supply [1] - Pulp: It is advisable to wait and see due to supply disturbances and weakening demand after restocking [1] - Logs: The spot price is rising, and the futures price is expected to increase due to a decrease in arrivals and an increase in foreign quotes [1] - Hogs: The spot price is stabilizing, and demand is supported, but production capacity still needs to be further released [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may ease. Prices are expected to correct in the short term [1] - Fuel oil: Follows the trend of crude oil, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient [1] - Asphalt: Profits are high, and the demand for catch-up construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan may be falsified [1] - Shanghai rubber: The raw material cost provides support, but downstream demand weakens before the festival, and the futures-spot price difference has widened [1] - BR rubber: The cost of butadiene provides support, and there is an expectation of increased exports in the long term. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate widely, with an upward trend in the long term [1] - PTA: The PX market is strong, driving up the prices of chemical products. Domestic PTA production is increasing, and the negative feedback from polyester factory production cuts is limited [1] - Ethylene glycol: Overseas prices have rebounded, and the reduction in Middle East exports has boosted market confidence. Speculative demand has increased [1] - Styrene: The futures price has rebounded due to improved supply and demand fundamentals and reduced inventory pressure [1] - Methanol: Affected by the situation in Iran, imports are expected to decrease, but downstream negative feedback is significant, resulting in a mixed situation [1] - PE: The price has returned to a reasonable range, and demand is weak during the holiday after pre-holiday stocking [1] - PP: Supply pressure is high, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the price has returned to a reasonable range [1] - PVC: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the current fundamentals are poor, and there may be a rush to export [1] - LPG: The CP price is rising, and the demand side is short-term bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the futures price [1] Shipping - Container shipping on the European route: Freight rates have peaked and declined before the festival, and airlines are expected to raise prices after the off-season in March [1]

交产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号15200 2026年2月5日 | F GF FUTURES | | --- | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 2月4日 | 2月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全到胶(SCRWF):下海 | 16100 | 15900 | 200 | 1.26% | | | 全乳基差 | -285 | -280 | -5 | -1.79% | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 15300 | 15150 | 150 | 0.99% | | | 非标价差 | -1085 | -1030 | -55 | -5.34% | | | 杯胶:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 53.80 | 53.50 | 0.30 | 0.56% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 58.80 | 58.80 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 2月4日 | 2月3日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 ...

能源化工日报 2026-02-04 2026/02/04 原油 【行情资讯】 INE 主力原油期货收跌 23.30 元/桶，跌幅 4.93%，报 449.40 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 107.00 元/吨，跌幅 3.81%，报 2701.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 74.00 元/吨，跌 幅 2.28%，报 3168.00 元/吨。 中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 2.48 百万桶至 201.25 百万桶，环比去库 1.22%； 汽油商业库存累库 1.09 百万桶至 95.06 百万桶，环比累库 1.16%；柴油商业库存累库 0.69 百 万桶至 96.94 百万桶，环比累库 0.72%；总成品油商业库存累库 1.78 百万桶至 192.00 百万 桶，环比累库 0.94%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将超预期的预判以及 OPEC 后续的 增产恢复预期，当前油价应予以逢高止盈，并以中期布局为主要操作思路。 甲醇 马桂炎（联系人） 聚酯分析师 从业资格号：F0 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） （杜冰沁，从业资格号：F3043760；交易咨询资格号：Z0015786） 周一，上期所沥青主力合约BU2603收跌4.879%，报3299元/吨。昨日BU受到油价和贵金属波动影响大 幅下跌。进入2月中上旬，北方地区多为下游备货为主，多数炼厂低产，库存水平低位，南方地区部分 套利需求尚可，进入春节期间，终端及交通运输停滞，整体炼厂库存水平呈上升趋势，同时社库的压力 也会进一步加大。近期沥青相对成本端原油波动较小，裂解价差有一定修复，基差方面，受到弱需求现 实的限制，各地区基差有明显走弱。从1-2月的燃料油进口来看，炼厂在积极寻找替代原料，但考虑到 经济性和沥青出率，不排除后续炼厂排产或有一定调整。近期BU受到成本端原油扰动较大，关注油价 波动和后续原料进口。 橡胶： （邸艺琳，从业资格号：F03107645；交易咨询资格号：Z0021445） 周一，截至日盘收盘沪胶主力RU2605下跌380元/吨至15980元/吨，NR主力下跌310元/吨至12925元/吨， ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 橡胶：预期降温，迎来调整 周一，国产全乳胶 15800 元/吨，环比上日下跌 350 元/吨；泰国 20 号混合胶 15000 元/吨，环比上日下跌 230 元/吨。 原料端：昨日泰国胶水报收 59.1 泰铢/公斤，环比上日上涨 0.3 泰铢/公斤，泰国杯胶价格报收 53.5 泰铢/公斤，环比上日持平；云南停割；海南停割。 截至 2026 年 2 月 1 日，青岛地区天胶保税和一般贸易合计库存量 59.17 万吨，环比上期增加 0.72 万吨，增幅 1.23%。保税区库存 9.76 万吨，增幅 3.34%； 一般贸易库存 49.41 万吨，增幅 0.82%。青岛天然橡胶样本保税仓库入库率增加 5.10 个百分点，出库率减少 2.27个百分点；一般贸易仓库入库率减少 0.40 个百分点，出库率减少 0.35 个百分点。 观点：随着北半球冬季来临，全球即将进入低产季，也代表着单边价格的定价框架将从供需平衡的动态定价转换至存量库存的静态定价，在近期商品市场预 期全面走强的背景下，预计短期内 RU&NR&Sicom 仍将高位震荡。向后看，尽管认为 20 ...

INE 主力原油期货收跌 33.90 元/桶，跌幅 7.02%，报 449.00 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收跌 202.00 元/吨，跌幅 7.01%，报 2679.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 197.00 元/吨，跌 幅 5.92%，报 3128.00 元/吨。 2026/02/03 原油 【行情资讯】 能源化工日报 2026-02-03 欧洲 ARA 周度数据出炉，汽油库存环比去库 0.73 百万桶至 10.75 百万桶，环比去库 6.40%； 柴油库存环比累库 0.20 百万桶至 15.61 百万桶，环比累库 1.31%；燃料油库存环比累库 0.22 百万桶至 7.33 百万桶，环比累库 3.13%；石脑油环比去库 0.38 百万桶至 5.54 百万桶，环比 去库 6.38%；航空煤油环比去库 0.24 百万桶至 7.60 百万桶，环比去库 3.02%；总体成品油环 比去库 0.93 百万桶至 46.83 百万桶，环比去库 1.94%。 【策略观点】 当前油价已经出现一定涨幅，并已经计价较高的地缘溢价。我们认为短期内，伊朗的断供缺口 仍存，但考虑到我们此前地缘系列专题指出委内瑞拉增产即将 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘风险加剧波动，仍为下一阶段核心变量 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、截至周五，油价震荡收跌，其中WTI 3月原合约收盘至65.21美元/桶，月度涨幅14.51%。布伦特3月 合约收盘至70.69美元/桶，月度涨幅14.64%。SC2603周五夜盘以470.0元/桶收盘，月度涨幅为9%。1月 油价整体呈现先下跌后反弹的节奏，价格重心在地缘等因素的驱动下表现较为强劲。 2、地缘的担忧反复演绎，美伊之间出现任何外交突破的前景仍然十分渺茫。特朗普政府寻求与伊朗达 成一项比奥巴马政府时期协议更为严格的核协议。特朗普在其第一任期内退出了那项协议。美国官员要 求伊朗停止铀浓缩活动、对其弹道导弹计划施加新的限制、终止对武装代理组织的支持，而伊朗长期抵 制这些要求。消息称，伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军将于2月1日至2日在霍尔木兹海峡进行实弹演习。因而 当前来看美伊可能走向谈判，但谈判过程仍有波折。此外，委内瑞拉短期出口或将有所恢复，但产量的 兑现需要较长周期，据推算，如果要将委内瑞拉产量提升至350万桶/日的高 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For crude oil, the current price has risen and priced in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, there is still a supply gap from Iran, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. - For methanol, it has priced in almost all geopolitical premiums. The current price strongly suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, putting pressure on the upside [5]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is recommended to short on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the overall commodities have risen sharply with strong buying enthusiasm and large fluctuations. It is recommended to trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. The suggestion to buy NR main contract and short RU2609 should be postponed [14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. Short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and rush - to - export sentiment support it. Attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is currently neutral to high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. It is advisable to gradually take profits [20]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The PE valuation still has room to decline. In the seasonal off - season, the demand side shows a downward trend in the overall operating rate [23]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, the contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production - mismatch. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. The current valuation has risen. Mid - term, there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. - For PTA, it enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage with short - term high maintenance on the supply side and declining demand from polyester and chemical fiber due to the off - season. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. - For ethylene glycol, in the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures closed up 3.80 yuan/barrel, a 0.81% increase, at 470.80 yuan/barrel. Singapore ESG weekly oil data showed gasoline inventory increased by 1.09 million barrels to 16.91 million barrels, diesel inventory decreased by 0.04 million barrels to 8.60 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 3.44 million barrels to 19.94 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.39 million barrels to 45.44 million barrels [2][3]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [4]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu decreased by 5 yuan/ton, while those in Lunan and Henan increased by 5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 15.00 yuan/ton to 2320 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 103 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: The current price suppresses downstream demand, and the negative feedback may continue, limiting the upside [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei increased by 20 yuan/ton, and those in Henan, Hubei, Jiangsu, and Shanxi increased by 10 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 27 yuan/ton to 1790 yuan/ton, and the overall basis was reported at - 30 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: The import window has opened, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, short on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Multiple commodities such as copper and crude oil rose sharply but fell back after the night session. The short - term market is priced by funds with low correlation to fundamentals. Bulls and bears have different views on the market [11]. - **Strategy**: Trade short - term according to the market, set stop - losses, and control risks strictly. Postpone adding or opening positions for buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 168 yuan to 5063 yuan. The cost of calcium carbide and other raw materials remained stable or changed slightly, the overall operating rate was 78.9%, and the downstream operating rate was 44.8%. Factory inventory decreased by 1.8 tons to 29 tons, and social inventory increased by 2.9 tons to 120.6 tons [16]. - **Strategy**: The fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand. Short - term factors support it, and attention should be paid to subsequent changes in capacity and operation [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot and futures prices of pure benzene rose, and the basis widened. The spot price of styrene remained unchanged, the futures price fell, and the basis strengthened. The non - integrated profit of styrene was neutral to high, and the port inventory continued to increase [19]. - **Strategy**: The upward valuation repair space of styrene is shrinking. Gradually take profits [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 7014 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. Production enterprise inventory decreased by 4.51 tons to 35.03 tons, and the downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11% [22]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may have bottomed. The PE valuation still has room to decline, and the demand side shows a downward trend in the seasonal off - season [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main futures contract closed at 6824 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The inventory of production enterprises, traders, and ports all decreased, and the downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02% [24]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak supply and demand, the overall inventory pressure is high. In the long term, go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 98 yuan to 7282 yuan. The PX load in China and Asia increased. The PTA load remained flat. The import of South Korean PX to China decreased in mid - early January, and the inventory increased in late November [26]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain a stockpiling pattern before the maintenance season. There are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract decreased by 62 yuan to 5270 yuan. The PTA load remained flat, and the downstream load decreased. The social inventory increased in late January, and the processing fee increased [28]. - **Strategy**: It enters the Spring Festival stockpiling stage. There is a risk of processing fee correction in the short term, but there is still room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [29]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract decreased by 44 yuan to 3913 yuan. The supply - side load increased, the downstream load decreased, the import to - port forecast was 14.7 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.3 tons to 85.8 tons [31]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and production cut under the pressure of stockpiling and high operation. The valuation needs to be compressed without further domestic production cuts [32].