Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a moderate recovery in the domestic apparel industry in 2025, with retail sales of clothing, shoes, and knitted products increasing by 3.1% year-on-year to 1.1 trillion yuan, although still lagging behind the overall retail performance of consumer goods, which grew by 4.5% [1][12] - The report highlights that the gap in retail sales growth between clothing and overall consumer goods has narrowed significantly compared to 2024, where clothing sales only grew by 0.3% [1][12] - The report notes that the textile and apparel index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the A-share textile and apparel sector rising by 11.3% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 20.6% [2][28] Group 2 - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see performance and valuation recovery in 2026, driven by the diminishing impact of reciprocal tariffs and improvements in Nike's operational status [3][28] - The report anticipates that clothing consumption will continue to experience a volatile recovery in 2026, with functional and mass-market clothing expected to outperform the broader market [3][28] - The home textile sector is entering a new replacement cycle, supported by subsidy policies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile [3][28] Group 3 - The report provides investment recommendations, suggesting a focus on companies such as Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, and Crystal International in the textile manufacturing sector, and Anta Sports and 361 Degrees in the apparel sector [3][28] - The report emphasizes that the performance of the brand apparel sector has shown gradual improvement, with key companies maintaining healthy inventory levels and experiencing a slight increase in gross margins [46][50] - The textile manufacturing sector has faced revenue pressure due to reciprocal tariffs, with a noted decline in net profit for key companies in the first three quarters of 2025 [61][62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract's decline widened. With the fading of macro - level positives, tariff disruptions resurfaced, and the decline in furnace materials dragged down finished products. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows DIFF and DEA moving downward. The operation suggestion is to take a short - biased view on the market's oscillation, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; main contract positions: 1,396,130 hands, a decrease of 26,705 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 85,292 hands, a decrease of 7,099 hands; HC1 - 5 contract spread: - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; HC last - trading - day warehouse receipts: 130,301 tons, an increase of 1,764 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In terms of 4.75 - mm hot - rolled coil prices, Hangzhou is 3,350 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Guangzhou is 3,280 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), Wuhan is 3,370 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and Tianjin is 3,210 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The HC main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore powder: 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, a decrease of 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 3.2356 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 776,600 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 3.2893 million tons, a decrease of 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons; the steel net export volume is 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production is 3.2758 million vehicles, an increase of 460,400 vehicles; automobile sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, an increase of 369,800 vehicles. Air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units; household refrigerator production is 10.1276 million units, an increase of 674,400 units; household washing - machine production is 11.7849 million units, an increase of 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. - China - EU export control dialogue consultations were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 12.28 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 840 million yuan [1] - The company's gross margin remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 21.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points to 20.0% in Q3 [2] - The company is expected to show resilience in operations despite tariff disruptions, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.15 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 9.7%, and 8.6% respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 840 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company’s total revenue was 4.48 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.0%, down from 20.8% in the previous year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.1%, while it was 6.8% in Q3 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.83 billion, 18.29 billion, and 19.74 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 0.0%, 8.7%, and 7.9% [4] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.15 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.2%, 9.7%, and 8.6% [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent signs of recovery in the bond market are observed, supported by both fundamental and policy factors [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to present allocation opportunities in medium to long-term bonds, particularly the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1][7] - Despite poor financial data released in July, the bond market's reaction was muted, indicating that investors had already priced in weak fundamentals [1] Group 2: Tariff and Trade Dynamics - The evolution of tariffs remains a key variable, with Trump's threat of a 100% tariff on China being a significant concern, although market reactions differ from previous instances [2][4] - The expectation is that the U.S. and China will eventually negotiate, with a possibility of canceling new tariffs similar to the situation in May [2] - The U.S. is likely to target specific goods for tariffs, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors, which could have a substantial impact on exports and the economy [4] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Domestic demand remains weak, with new loans recovering only to normal levels after hitting a low in July [4] - The financing and social financing are primarily supported by government bonds, which may weaken as the peak of government bond issuance passes [4] - The impact of anti-involution policies on the economy is complex, potentially limiting new credit demand and creating pressure on macroeconomic totals [5] Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's liquidity easing remains unchanged, but the degree of easing is limited, with recent signs of a slight reduction in short-term interest rates [7] - The current technical indicators show bullish signals, suggesting that the 10-year government bond has attractive value for investors [7] - The bond market's sensitivity to both positive and negative factors has shifted, with current pressures expected to create opportunities in the fourth quarter [6]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on October 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62% to 12996.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.79% to 3059.32 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1690.5 billion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3000 stocks were in the red, with sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and semiconductors declining, while the oil sector saw strong gains, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that despite potential pullbacks in Chinese stocks, investors should shift their mindset from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," predicting a 30% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2027 [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the index is at a high point, with increased capital divergence, warning of potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but also highlighted that economic recovery in Q4 is expected to be supported by policies [2] - The report emphasized that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract foreign capital inflows, enhancing the allocation value of A-shares and potentially driving domestic funds into the stock market [2]

Economic Overview - Q3 2025 GDP grew by 4.8% year-on-year, aligning with expectations, while quarter-on-quarter growth was 1.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous value[3] - The nominal GDP growth rate narrowed the gap with real GDP growth by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a mild recovery in price levels[3] Industrial and Service Sector Performance - Industrial added value in September increased by 6.5% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value, driven by sectors like automotive and food manufacturing[3][15] - The service sector maintained resilience with a production growth rate of 5.6% year-on-year, consistent with previous values[3][15] Consumer Behavior - Disposable income growth slowed slightly to 5.1%, down 0.2 percentage points, with a consumption rate of 68.1% in Q3 2025, lower than the levels in 2023-2024[20] - Retail sales in September saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.1 percentage points to 4.5%, with a monthly decline of 0.4 percentage points to 3.0%[4][23] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 0.5%, with real estate investment down 13.9%[14][27] - Infrastructure investment saw a significant drop, with broad infrastructure down 8.0% year-on-year, while narrow infrastructure improved to -4.7%[6][33] Future Economic Outlook - To achieve an annual growth target of approximately 5.0%, Q4 2025 GDP needs to reach 4.6%[7][35] - The government is focusing on policy financial tools, including a 500 billion yuan initiative to stimulate investment and consumption[7][35] Risk Factors - Potential risks include policy changes that may fall short of expectations and an unexpected recession in the U.S. economy[8][36]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - On Tuesday, the I2601 contract decreased with increasing positions. Due to tariff disturbances affecting market sentiment and the weak steel market, ore prices are under pressure. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the I2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward. The operation suggestion is to sell on rebounds, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the I main - contract is 782.00 yuan/ton, down 22.50 yuan; the holding volume is 499,799 lots, up 14,460 lots. The 1 - 5 contract spread is 21 yuan/ton, down 2.50 yuan; the net holding of the top 20 in the contract is - 13,543 lots, down 10,418 lots. The DCE warehouse receipt is 800.00 lots, unchanged. The Singapore iron ore main - contract quote at 15:00 is 105.45 US dollars/ton, down 2.34 US dollars [2]. 2. Spot Market - The price of 61.5% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port is 858 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan; the price of 60.8% Mac ore at Qingdao Port is 850 yuan/dry ton, down 10 yuan. The price of 56.5% Super Special powder ore at Jingtang Port is 772 yuan/dry ton, down 9 yuan. The basis of the I main - contract (Mac powder dry ton - main contract) is 68 yuan, up 13 yuan. The 62% Platts iron ore index (previous day) is 109.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.80 US dollars. The ratio of Jiangsu scrap steel to 60.8% Mac ore at Qingdao Port is 3.29, down 0.03. The estimated import cost is 891 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan [2]. 3. Industry Situation - The global iron ore shipping volume (weekly) is 3,207.50 million tons, down 71.50 million tons; the arrival volume at 47 ports in China (weekly) is 3,144.10 million tons, up 368.30 million tons. The iron ore inventory at 47 ports (weekly) is 14,641.08 million tons, up 87.12 million tons; the iron ore inventory of sample steel mills (weekly) is 9,046.19 million tons, down 990.60 million tons. The monthly iron ore import volume is 11,632.60 million tons, up 1,110.60 million tons. The available days of iron ore (weekly) are 26.00 days, up 1 day. The daily output of 266 mines (weekly) is 39.20 million tons, down 0.16 million tons; the operating rate of 266 mines (weekly) is 62.54%, up 0.15%. The iron concentrate inventory of 266 mines (weekly) is 47.95 million tons, down 0.78 million tons. The BDI index is 2,144.00, up 208.00. The iron ore freight rate from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao is 25.20 US dollars/ton, up 1.64 US dollars; the iron ore freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao is 9.82 US dollars/ton, up 0.20 US dollars [2]. 4. Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 84.25%, down 0.02%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) is 90.53%, down 0.10%. The monthly domestic crude steel output is 7,737 million tons, down 229 million tons [2]. 5. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 17.19%, up 3.31%; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying (daily) is 18.65%, up 1.30%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options (daily) is 20.88%, up 0.13%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options (daily) is 20.16%, down 0.25% [2]. 6. Industry News - From October 06 to October 12, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 3,207.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.5 million tons. The shipping volume from Australia and Brazil was 2,731.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94.9 million tons. The Australian shipping volume was 1,916.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 63.6 million tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 1,584.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 76.7 million tons. The Brazilian shipping volume was 814.7 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 31.3 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 3,144.1 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 368.3 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 3,045.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 437.1 million tons; the arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1,423.5 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 28.1 million tons [2].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View - On October 14, 2025, the RB2601 contract remained weak. The tariff disturbances will continue to affect market sentiment in the short - term. The weekly output of rebar remains low, with the capacity utilization rate falling below 45%. Terminal demand is average, and inventory has changed from decreasing to increasing. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2601 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are running below the 0 axis. The operation strategy is to be bearish in the oscillation, paying attention to rhythm and risk control [2] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract is 3,061.00 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; the position volume is 1,991,462 lots, up 38,714 lots. The net position of the top 20 in the RB contract is - 84,547 lots, down 17,978 lots. The RB1 - 5 contract spread is - 53 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan. The daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the SHFE is 290,165 tons, up 9,708 tons. The HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread is 180 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [2] 2. Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) is 3,240.00 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; (actual weight) is 3,323 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan. In Guangzhou (theoretical weight), it is 3,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. In Tianjin (theoretical weight), it is 3,150.00 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The basis of the RB main contract is 179.00 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan. The spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou is 80.00 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2] 3. Upstream Situation - The price of 61.5% PB fine ore at Qingdao Port is 791.00 yuan/wet ton, up 4.00 yuan. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Hebei is 1,490.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) is 2,280.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Q235 billet in Hebei is 2,940.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. The inventory of iron ore at 45 ports is 140.2867 million tons, up 313,200 tons. The coke inventory of sample coking plants is 425,500 tons, up 34,900 tons. The coke inventory of sample steel mills is 6.5057 million tons, down 125,400 tons. The billet inventory in Tangshan is 1.276 million tons, up 79,400 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 84.25%, down 0.02%. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 90.53%, down 0.10% [2] 4. Industry Situation - The weekly output of rebar of sample steel mills is 2.034 million tons, down 36,200 tons. The capacity utilization rate of sample steel mills is 44.59%, down 0.80%. The inventory of sample steel mills is 1.9234 million tons, up 334,300 tons. The social inventory of rebar in 35 cities is 4.673 million tons, up 239,600 tons. The operating rate of independent electric arc furnace steel mills is 64.58%, down 1.05%. The monthly output of domestic crude steel is 77.37 million tons, down 2.29 million tons. The monthly output of Chinese steel bars is 1.518 million tons, down 23,000 tons. The net export volume of steel is 991,700 tons, up 90,700 tons [2] 5. Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index is 93.05, down 0.28. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion is 0.50%, down 1.10%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion is - 12.90%, down 0.90%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment is 2.00%, down 1.20%. The cumulative value of housing construction area is 643.109 million square meters, down 4.378 million square meters. The cumulative value of new housing construction area is 39.801 million square meters, down 4.595 million square meters. The unsold housing area is 40.229 million square meters, up 307,000 square meters [2] 6. Industry News - In early October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.32 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.032 million tons, a 7.5% increase in daily output compared to the previous period; 18.75 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.875 million tons, a 3.2% increase; 19.61 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.961 million tons, an 8.5% decrease. Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said on Monday that she favors two more 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts this year. The Ministry of Transport will start charging a special port fee for US - related ships from October 14, 2025 [2]

Report Title - Steel & Iron Ore | Daily Report, dated October 13, 2025 [3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - **Rebar**: The main contract futures price fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 0.77%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply is contracting while demand is weak. With a supply-demand imbalance, industrial contradictions are accumulating. Holiday inventory increased significantly, pressuring steel prices again. The relative positive factor is cost support. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to demand performance [4]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The main contract futures price fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.88%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. At present, the supply pressure of hot-rolled coils is relatively large, and there are concerns about demand. Industrial contradictions are accumulating, inventory has increased significantly, and hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly. Attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand and demand performance [4]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of 1.13%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, iron ore demand is performing well, providing support for ore prices. However, supply is at a high level, and demand resilience is weakening. The fundamentals are expected to deteriorate. Coupled with weakening market sentiment due to tariff disturbances, the upward driving force for high-valued ore prices is not strong. It is expected to maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Foreign trade data**: In the first three quarters of this year, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 33.61 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4%. Among them, exports were 19.95 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.1%; imports were 13.66 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%. In September, imports and exports were 4.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8% [6]. - **Automobile market data**: In September, the retail penetration rate of new energy vehicles in the overall domestic passenger vehicle market was 57.8%. National passenger vehicle retail sales in September were 2.241 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3% and a month-on-month increase of 11.0%. Cumulative retail sales this year reached 17.005 million units, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, passenger vehicle exports (including complete vehicles and CKD) were 528,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 20.7% and a month-on-month increase of 5.7%. From January to September, passenger vehicle exports by manufacturers were 3.999 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.5%. In September, new energy vehicles accounted for 40.1% of total exports, an increase of 15 percentage points compared to the same period [7]. - **Steel trade data**: In September 2025, China exported 1.0465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 95,500 tons and a month-on-month increase of 10.0%; from January to September, cumulative steel exports were 8.7955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%. In September, China imported 54,800 tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 4,800 tons and a month-on-month increase of 9.6%; from January to September, cumulative steel imports were 453,200 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [8]. 2. Spot Market - **Steel spot prices**: Rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) in Shanghai was priced at 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, it was 3,190 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,237 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coils (Shanghai, 4.75mm) in Shanghai were priced at 3,320 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Tianjin, they were 3,250 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3,370 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton. Tangshan steel billets (Q235) were priced at 2,950 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) was priced at 2,150 yuan/ton, unchanged [9]. - **Iron ore spot prices**: 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was priced at 796 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis) was priced at 812 yuan/ton, unchanged. Ocean freight rates from Australia were 9.58 yuan/ton, up 0.01 yuan/ton; from Brazil, they were 23.64 yuan/ton, down 0.52 yuan/ton. The SGX swap (current month) was priced at 106.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.49 US dollars/ton. The Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was priced at 107.40 US dollars/ton, up 1.55 US dollars/ton [9]. 3. Futures Market - **Rebar futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,083 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.77%. The highest price was 3,114 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,066 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1,231,858 lots, an increase of 192,496 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,952,748 lots, an increase of 26,595 lots [11]. - **Hot-rolled coil futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 3,261 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.88%. The highest price was 3,295 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 3,245 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 557,390 lots, an increase of 143,388 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 1,422,524 lots, an increase of 24,873 lots [11]. - **Iron ore futures**: The closing price of the active contract was 804.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.13%. The highest price was 804.5 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 791.0 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 344,315 lots, an increase of 119,517 lots compared to the previous day. The open interest was 485,339 lots, an increase of 9,148 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel inventory**: Included charts of rebar inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), hot-rolled coil inventory (weekly changes, total inventory of steel mills and social inventory), and related inventory data trends [13][14][16]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Included charts of 45-port iron ore inventory (total inventory, seasonal changes, inventory month-on-month changes), 247 steel mills' iron ore inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory [20][21][25]. - **Steel mill production**: Included charts of 247 sample steel mills' blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, 247 steel mills' profitable steel mill ratios, 87 independent electric furnace operating rates, and 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills' profit and loss situations [28][30][34]. 5. Market Outlook - **Rebar**: During the holiday, both supply and demand of rebar weakened. Construction steel mill production was weak, and weekly rebar production decreased by 36,200 tons month-on-month. Supply contracted to a relatively low level, but the space for production cuts during the peak season was questionable, and inventory was high, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, rebar demand was weak during the holiday, weekly apparent demand decreased month-on-month, and high-frequency indicators were all at low levels in recent years. The downstream industry showed no signs of improvement, and weak demand would continue to suppress steel prices. It is expected that rebar will continue to oscillate and seek a bottom, and attention should be paid to post-holiday demand performance [35]. - **Hot-rolled coil**: The supply-demand pattern continued to weaken. Plate steel mill production was weakly stable, and weekly production decreased by 14,000 tons month-on-month, but it was still at a high level for the year, and inventory was high, so supply pressure was relatively large, continuing to pressure steel prices. At the same time, hot-rolled coil demand was weak during the holiday, and weekly apparent demand decreased by 336,400 tons month-on-month. The relative positive factor was that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remained at a high level, providing support for hot-rolled coil demand. However, it should be noted that the industrial contradictions in the cold-rolled industry were not alleviated, and combined with limited improvement in external demand, there were concerns about hot-rolled coil demand. Hot-rolled coil prices will continue to be under pressure and run weakly, and attention should be paid to the possibility of intensified industrial contradictions caused by weakening demand [35]. - **Iron ore**: There were changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production was stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of iron ore remained at a high level. Last week, the daily average pig iron output and daily consumption of imported ore by sample steel mills showed mixed changes, with little overall change. Iron ore demand was performing well, but the industrial contradictions in the steel market were constantly accumulating, and the resilience was expected to weaken, so the positive effect was not strong. At the same time, domestic port arrivals continued to recover, while overseas miner shipments declined slightly, both maintaining high levels for the year. Overseas supply was high under high ore prices, and combined with the recovery of domestic ore supply after the holiday, the supply pressure of iron ore increased. It is expected that iron ore will maintain high-level oscillatory operation, and attention should be paid to steel performance [36].