研究员: 蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/2/25 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任 自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引 用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,236 | +41↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1501203 | +323↑ +8↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 63,184 | -1870↓ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -11 | | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日， ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Founder Securities indicates that while the intensity of external economic shocks may decrease in 2026 compared to 2025, five major risks still require close attention. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical risks have evolved from tail risks to core macro variables since 2025, and are expected to remain high in 2026. The U.S. under Trump's second term is a significant risk point, with potential aggressive policies and a likely Democratic majority in the House of Representatives [2][22]. - The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict may lead to "aid fatigue" in Europe, complicating policy coordination amid internal political shifts [2][26]. Group 2: Tariff Disturbances - Although there is potential for tariff risks to ease in 2026, the disturbances to international trade remain significant. Current tariffs may suppress trade growth, with WTO predicting a mere 0.5% growth rate for global merchandise trade in 2026 [3][39]. - If the Supreme Court rules the IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional, U.S. tariff rates could drop from 16.8% to 9.3%, potentially alleviating inflationary pressures [3][36]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Independence - Trump's ongoing pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates raises concerns about the central bank's independence. The upcoming change in Fed leadership is a focal point, with candidates like Kevin Hassett potentially undermining this independence [4][58]. - A decline in Fed independence could increase stagflation risks and negatively impact U.S. dollar assets, while benefiting short-term U.S. Treasuries and gold [4][62]. Group 4: Technology Stock Bubble - The AI-driven surge in U.S. tech stocks has led to high valuations, with the S&P 500 PE ratio at 25.6X and the Nasdaq at 34.4X as of early January 2026. The top ten stocks account for 32.8% of the market [5][65]. - Despite concerns over financial sustainability and profitability in the AI sector, the risk of a bubble bursting is considered low, given the current economic conditions and Fed's likely continuation of a rate-cutting cycle [5][63]. Group 5: Fiscal Sustainability Concerns - High long-term interest rates in developed economies are expected to persist, putting pressure on stock markets. The global fiscal deficit rates are likely to remain elevated, with the U.S. "Great Beautiful Act" exacerbating debt pressures [6][28]. - The K-shaped recovery in the stock market may continue, with interest-sensitive sectors like real estate and consumer goods facing challenges, while the AI industry remains relatively insulated [6][28].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel price is likely to continue range-bound trading due to a combination of factors. Macroscopically, tariff disturbances have weakened, and there are expectations of loose monetary policies. Industrially, the weekly output of rebar has stopped falling and rebounded, reaching around 2 million tons. It is the off - consumption season, with apparent demand declining and inventory turning from decreasing to increasing. It is recommended to conduct short - term trading of the RB2605 contract in the range of 3100 - 3165 yuan/ton [9]. - Given the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, the market may be range - bound. It is suggested to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - by - Week Summary - **Market Review**: As of January 23, the closing price of the rebar main contract was 3142 yuan/ton (-21 yuan/ton week - on - week), and the spot price of Zhongtian rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton (-50 yuan/ton week - on - week). Rebar production increased to 199.55 tons (+9.25 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year increase of 25.42 tons. Apparent demand declined to 185.52 tons (-4.82 tons week - on - week), but a year - on - year increase of 68.61 tons. Total rebar inventory was 452.1 tons (+14.03 tons week - on - week), with a year - on - year decrease of 31.11 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, a 0.86 - percentage - point increase week - on - week and an 8.23 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year [7]. - **Market Outlook**: Overseas, the US will not impose tariffs on eight European countries, and the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. Domestically, the central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates. In terms of cost, iron ore port inventory reached a new high, and coking coal and coke still have winter storage expectations. Technically, the RB2605 contract continued range - bound trading, with technical support at 3100 yuan/ton [9]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: The RB2605 contract first declined and then rebounded this week. It was stronger than the RB2610 contract, with a spread of -46 yuan/ton on the 23rd, a week - on - week increase of 3 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Net Positions**: On January 23, the warehouse receipt volume of rebar on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 39487 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43193 tons. The net short position of the top 20 holders in the rebar futures contract was 66833 lots, an increase of 38128 lots compared to the previous week [22]. - **Spot Price**: On January 23, the spot price of Grade III 20mm HRB400 rebar in Hangzhou was 3300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 50 yuan/ton; the national average price was 3321 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The spot price was weaker than the futures price, and the basis on the 23rd was 158 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 29 yuan/ton [28]. 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream Market**: The spot price of iron ore decreased, and the spot price of coke remained flat. The arrival volume at 45 ports decreased, while port inventory increased. The capacity utilization rate of coking plants decreased, and coke inventory increased [30][35][39]. - **Supply Side**: In December 2025, China's crude steel production decreased year - on - year. The weekly rebar production increased, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly week - on - week, and the electric arc furnace operating rate decreased. Rebar inventory increased [45][48][54]. - **Downstream Demand**: In 2025, real estate development investment, new housing construction area, and infrastructure investment all declined year - on - year [57]. 4. Options Market - Due to the positive macro expectations and the average performance of the rebar industry, it is recommended to simultaneously sell out - of - the - money call and put options [60].

Economic Growth - The annualized quarterly GDP growth rate for Q3 2025 is +4.3%, exceeding expectations of +3.3% and the previous value of +3.8%[1] - The annualized quarterly personal consumption expenditure growth rate for Q3 2025 is +3.5%, higher than the expected +2.7% and the previous +2.5%[1] - The core PCE price index for Q3 2025 shows an annualized quarterly growth rate of +2.9%, matching expectations and up from +2.6% in the previous quarter[1] Consumer Confidence and Spending - Consumer confidence index rose to 61.7 in July 2025, the highest since March 2025, contributing to a recovery in personal consumption[3] - The Q3 2025 personal consumption expenditure growth rate of +3.5% is the highest recorded in 2025, indicating a rebound in consumer spending[3] Investment Trends - Private investment in Q3 2025 recorded a quarterly growth rate of -0.3%, an improvement from -13.8% in the previous quarter[4] - Fixed investment growth rate for non-residential investment is +2.8%, while residential investment continues to decline at -5.1%[4] Net Exports - The "import rush" effect has weakened, with imports showing a negative growth rate of -4.7% in Q3 2025, while exports increased by +8.8%[6] - Net exports contributed 1.6 percentage points to GDP growth in Q3 2025, driven by improved export demand from trade negotiations[6] Market Reactions - Following the economic data release, major U.S. stock indices rose, with the Dow Jones up by +0.2%, S&P 500 by +0.5%, and Nasdaq by +0.6%[2] - The 10-year Treasury yield increased by 1 basis point to 4.18%, while the 2-year yield rose by 4 basis points to 3.48%[2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the home appliance industry [11] Core Insights - The home appliance sector shows strong profitability resilience despite challenges from domestic subsidy reductions and external tariff impacts. The overall valuation remains at a reasonable low level, suggesting opportunities for growth in high-performing leaders and stable value recovery in established companies [2][10] Overall Industry Summary - The home appliance industry achieved a revenue growth of 7.52% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with quarterly growth rates of +13.97%, +5.46%, and +3.59% respectively. The growth trend is expected to slow down due to subsidy reductions and diminishing marginal effects [4][21] - The gross profit margin for the industry in Q3 2025 was 24.75%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.54 percentage points, while the gross sales difference improved by 0.64 percentage points to 16.35% [31][39] - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 reached 1,048.77 billion, marking a year-on-year increase of 9.76%, with Q3 net profit growing by 4.22% [38][44] White Goods - The white goods sector reported a revenue growth of 9.06% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with Q3 growth at 5.29%. The sector benefits from a reduction in domestic price competition, leading to a recovery in gross profit margins [5][27] - The net profit for the white goods sector increased by 11.32% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 showing a growth of 3.50% [43][44] Black Goods - The black goods sector experienced a revenue growth of 3.09% year-on-year in the first three quarters, but Q3 saw a decline of 2.64%. The sector's performance is influenced by a low base effect and increased non-recurring gains [6][24] - The net profit for the black goods sector surged by 37.26% in Q3, reflecting a strong recovery [42][43] Kitchen Appliances and Post-Cycle - The kitchen appliance sector faced a revenue decline of 4.09% in Q3 2025, attributed to a downturn in the real estate market and cautious consumer spending [7][25] - The net profit for the kitchen appliance sector decreased by 12.73% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Small Appliances - The small appliances sector achieved a revenue growth of 5.92% in Q3 2025, with the cleaning segment showing a remarkable growth of 30.70% [8][24] - The net profit for the small appliances sector increased by 16.52% year-on-year in Q3 [42][43] Upstream Components - The upstream components sector reported a revenue growth of 8.13% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with Q3 growth at 3.31%. The sector's profitability significantly improved due to order and business structure optimization [9][26] - The net profit for the upstream components sector grew by 30.29% in Q3 [42][43] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-growth leaders with strong organizational, technological, and brand capabilities, such as Anker Innovations, Roborock, and Ninebot. Additionally, it recommends paying attention to stable leaders like Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, and Gree Electric for value recovery opportunities [10]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates a moderate recovery in the domestic apparel industry in 2025, with retail sales of clothing, shoes, and knitted products increasing by 3.1% year-on-year to 1.1 trillion yuan, although still lagging behind the overall retail performance of consumer goods, which grew by 4.5% [1][12] - The report highlights that the gap in retail sales growth between clothing and overall consumer goods has narrowed significantly compared to 2024, where clothing sales only grew by 0.3% [1][12] - The report notes that the textile and apparel index has shown a fluctuating upward trend, with the A-share textile and apparel sector rising by 11.3% in 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which increased by 20.6% [2][28] Group 2 - The textile manufacturing sector is expected to see performance and valuation recovery in 2026, driven by the diminishing impact of reciprocal tariffs and improvements in Nike's operational status [3][28] - The report anticipates that clothing consumption will continue to experience a volatile recovery in 2026, with functional and mass-market clothing expected to outperform the broader market [3][28] - The home textile sector is entering a new replacement cycle, supported by subsidy policies, with recommendations to focus on companies like Luolai Life and Mercury Home Textile [3][28] Group 3 - The report provides investment recommendations, suggesting a focus on companies such as Huayi Group, Shenzhou International, and Crystal International in the textile manufacturing sector, and Anta Sports and 361 Degrees in the apparel sector [3][28] - The report emphasizes that the performance of the brand apparel sector has shown gradual improvement, with key companies maintaining healthy inventory levels and experiencing a slight increase in gross margins [46][50] - The textile manufacturing sector has faced revenue pressure due to reciprocal tariffs, with a noted decline in net profit for key companies in the first three quarters of 2025 [61][62]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View On Tuesday, the HC2601 contract's decline widened. With the fading of macro - level positives, tariff disruptions resurfaced, and the decline in furnace materials dragged down finished products. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the HC2601 contract shows DIFF and DEA moving downward. The operation suggestion is to take a short - biased view on the market's oscillation, and pay attention to rhythm and risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - HC main contract closing price: 3,265 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan; main contract positions: 1,396,130 hands, a decrease of 26,705 hands; the net positions of the top 20 in the HC contract: - 85,292 hands, a decrease of 7,099 hands; HC1 - 5 contract spread: - 7 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan; HC last - trading - day warehouse receipts: 130,301 tons, an increase of 1,764 tons; HC2601 - RB2601 contract spread: 221 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In terms of 4.75 - mm hot - rolled coil prices, Hangzhou is 3,350 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Guangzhou is 3,280 yuan/ton (down 40 yuan), Wuhan is 3,370 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and Tianjin is 3,210 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan). The HC main contract basis is 85 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the Hangzhou hot - rolled coil - rebar spread is 100 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Qingdao Port 61.5% PB iron ore powder: 785 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; Hebei quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke: 1,590 yuan/ton, unchanged; Tangshan 6 - 8mm scrap steel: 2,220 yuan/ton, unchanged; Hebei Q235 billet: 2,940 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan. The 45 - port iron ore inventory is 145.3924 million tons, an increase of 1.1859 million tons; sample coking plant coke inventory is 374,400 tons, an increase of 700 tons; sample steel mill coke inventory is 6.2888 million tons, a decrease of 43,900 tons; Hebei billet inventory is 1.1957 million tons, a decrease of 103,900 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills is 81.73%, a decrease of 3 percentage points; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate is 88.59%, a decrease of 1.33 percentage points. The sample steel mill hot - rolled coil output is 3.2356 million tons, an increase of 11,000 tons; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil capacity utilization rate is 82.65%, an increase of 0.28 percentage points; the sample steel mill hot - rolled coil factory inventory is 776,600 tons, an increase of 3,100 tons; the 33 - city hot - rolled coil social inventory is 3.2893 million tons, a decrease of 86,400 tons. The domestic crude steel output is 73.49 million tons, a decrease of 3.88 million tons; the steel net export volume is 9.92 million tons, an increase of 910,000 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Automobile production is 3.2758 million vehicles, an increase of 460,400 vehicles; automobile sales are 3.2264 million vehicles, an increase of 369,800 vehicles. Air - conditioner production is 18.0948 million units, an increase of 1.276 million units; household refrigerator production is 10.1276 million units, an increase of 674,400 units; household washing - machine production is 11.7849 million units, an increase of 1.653 million units [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In October 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 93,000 vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 12% and a year - on - year increase of about 40%. - China - EU export control dialogue consultations were held in Brussels, and both sides agreed to maintain communication to promote the stability and smoothness of the China - EU industrial and supply chains [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 3.2% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with total revenue reaching 12.28 billion yuan. However, the net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 7.1% year-on-year to 840 million yuan [1] - The company's gross margin remained stable, with a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points to 21.3% for the first three quarters of 2025, and a decrease of 0.8 percentage points to 20.0% in Q3 [2] - The company is expected to show resilience in operations despite tariff disruptions, with projected net profits for 2025-2027 of 1.15 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 9.2%, 9.7%, and 8.6% respectively [2] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported total revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.2% year-on-year, and a net profit of 840 million yuan, an increase of 7.1% year-on-year [1] - In Q3 2025, the company’s total revenue was 4.48 billion yuan, down 9.8% year-on-year, with a net profit of 300 million yuan, down 13.1% year-on-year [1] - The company’s gross margin for Q3 2025 was 20.0%, down from 20.8% in the previous year [2] - The company’s net profit margin for the first three quarters of 2025 was 7.1%, while it was 6.8% in Q3 [2] Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company’s projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.83 billion, 18.29 billion, and 19.74 billion yuan respectively, with growth rates of 0.0%, 8.7%, and 7.9% [4] - The projected net profits for the same years are 1.15 billion, 1.26 billion, and 1.37 billion yuan, with growth rates of 9.2%, 9.7%, and 8.6% [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - Recent signs of recovery in the bond market are observed, supported by both fundamental and policy factors [1] - The fourth quarter is expected to present allocation opportunities in medium to long-term bonds, particularly the 10-year government bond ETF (511260) [1][7] - Despite poor financial data released in July, the bond market's reaction was muted, indicating that investors had already priced in weak fundamentals [1] Group 2: Tariff and Trade Dynamics - The evolution of tariffs remains a key variable, with Trump's threat of a 100% tariff on China being a significant concern, although market reactions differ from previous instances [2][4] - The expectation is that the U.S. and China will eventually negotiate, with a possibility of canceling new tariffs similar to the situation in May [2] - The U.S. is likely to target specific goods for tariffs, particularly in strategic sectors like semiconductors, which could have a substantial impact on exports and the economy [4] Group 3: Economic Fundamentals - Domestic demand remains weak, with new loans recovering only to normal levels after hitting a low in July [4] - The financing and social financing are primarily supported by government bonds, which may weaken as the peak of government bond issuance passes [4] - The impact of anti-involution policies on the economy is complex, potentially limiting new credit demand and creating pressure on macroeconomic totals [5] Group 4: Policy Environment - The central bank's liquidity easing remains unchanged, but the degree of easing is limited, with recent signs of a slight reduction in short-term interest rates [7] - The current technical indicators show bullish signals, suggesting that the 10-year government bond has attractive value for investors [7] - The bond market's sensitivity to both positive and negative factors has shifted, with current pressures expected to create opportunities in the fourth quarter [6]

Group 1 - A-shares experienced a collective decline on October 22, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly down by 0.07% to 3913.76 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.62% to 12996.61 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.79% to 3059.32 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets was 1690.5 billion yuan, a decrease of over 200 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] - Nearly 3000 stocks were in the red, with sectors such as coal, non-ferrous metals, brokerage, and semiconductors declining, while the oil sector saw strong gains, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs released a report suggesting that despite potential pullbacks in Chinese stocks, investors should shift their mindset from "selling on highs" to "buying on lows," predicting a 30% increase in the MSCI China Index by the end of 2027 [2] - Dongguan Securities noted that the index is at a high point, with increased capital divergence, warning of potential short-term fluctuations due to profit-taking, but also highlighted that economic recovery in Q4 is expected to be supported by policies [2] - The report emphasized that the expectation of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could attract foreign capital inflows, enhancing the allocation value of A-shares and potentially driving domestic funds into the stock market [2]