Core Viewpoint - Bill Ackman's investment strategy through Pershing Square Capital shows strong performance in 2025, with potential for continued success in 2026, focusing on building a diversified holding company similar to Berkshire Hathaway [1][2]. Group 1: Alphabet Inc. - Ackman's investment in Alphabet represents 22.6% of his marketable equities, driven by the belief that the market undervalues its AI capabilities and overestimates competition from AI chatbots [3][4]. - Alphabet's Google Cloud revenue grew by 34% year-over-year in Q3, with expanding operating margins and strong adoption of its AI accelerators, TPUs [4][5]. - The company has made significant advancements with its Gemini AI model, leading to a 15% growth in Google Search revenue in Q3 2025, and a partnership with Apple to enhance Siri, expected to generate billions in revenue [5][6]. Group 2: Brookfield Corp. - Brookfield Corp. accounts for 17.7% of Ackman's marketable equities, primarily driven by its subsidiary Brookfield Asset Management, which constitutes about 75% of its value [7][9]. - The company reported $154 million in net carried interest in Q3, a significant increase from $61 million year-over-year, with expectations of $25 billion in net carried interest over the next decade [10][11]. - Brookfield's Wealth Solutions insurance business is projected to double its assets in five years, with a 15% return on equity, leading to strong earnings growth [11]. Group 3: Uber Technologies - Uber Technologies makes up 15.5% of Ackman's marketable equities, facing concerns about competition from autonomous vehicles but positioned as a key partner for self-driving initiatives [12][13]. - The company has seen a 17% increase in monthly active users and a 4% rise in trips per user in Q3, contributing to strong top-line growth and 33% adjusted EBITDA growth [15][16]. - Despite significant investments in future technologies, Uber's stock is valued at around 22 times its trailing adjusted EBITDA, indicating strong growth potential [16].

Core Viewpoint - Uber has shown strong performance relative to the S&P 500, with a year-to-date increase of approximately 28%, outpacing the industrial sector ETF, which is up about 17% [2]. Price Trends and Technical Analysis - Uber's stock has experienced a recent decline, breaking below a supportive area near $82, which is now a potential resistance level. Support is identified at $77, where the price has previously topped out [3][4]. - The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicates a bullish divergence, suggesting potential upward momentum despite the recent price decline [4][5]. - Key trading volume nodes are identified around $84, $83, and $75, aligning with support and resistance levels [6]. Options Strategy - In a low implied volatility environment, a bullish options strategy is proposed, involving the purchase of an 80 strike call and the sale of an 87 strike call, creating a $7 wide bullish call vertical [9][10]. - The trade is structured to expire in 39 days, avoiding the earnings report scheduled for the first week of February, allowing for potential gains if the stock moves higher [10][12]. - The break-even point for this trade is set at $82.20, which is approximately 2% above the current share price, indicating that a modest upward movement is sufficient for profitability [12].

Insurance Rate Changes - New York officials project a 25% average increase in insurance policy rates for the for-hire vehicle industry over the next three years [1] Industry Impact - The rate increase will affect rideshare companies, driver representatives, and others in the for-hire vehicle industry [1]

Uber Stock Analysis - An analyst sold Uber personally due to a lack of clarity and concerns about its price ceiling in the low $90s, anticipating a potential retreat and a break below the $80 support level [1][3][4] - Uber's stock is currently trading in a range between $80 and $100 [2] - The analyst community has a generally positive outlook, with 80% of analysts rating Uber as a "buy" and a 12-month price target of $133 [18] Competitive Landscape - Concerns exist regarding long-term competition from Waymo and Tesla in the robo-taxi market [7][9] - Waymo's robo-taxi service is rapidly scaling, with 14 million paid rides served in 2025 so far and on track for 20 million lifetime rides by year-end [11] - Waymo is experiencing a tripling year-over-year growth, achieving 1 million rides per month and targeting 1 million rides per week by the end of 2026 [12] - Waymo claims a 10-fold reduction in serious injury or worse crashes versus human drivers and plans expansion to 20+ new cities in 2026, including Tokyo and London [12] Market Sentiment - Uber's stock experienced a 6% decrease intraday, potentially influenced by Waymo's growth announcements [14][17] - One analyst believes the recent pullback in Uber's stock is not unique and reflects a broader trend in big tech stocks, while another views it as a distinct story [7][8] - Sentiment and positioning are important factors to consider, and a further breakdown in price could lead analysts to revise their ratings from "buy" to "hold" and lower price targets [17][18]

Group 1: Market Overview - The US stock market is experiencing a decline, with the Dow down nearly 300 points, approximately 0.61% [2] - The tech-heavy NASDAQ is leading the sell-off, with significant drops in large-cap tech stocks [3][5] - Qualcomm shares fell by 1.8% following earnings, while AMD saw a larger decline of about 5% [4] Group 2: Earnings Season Insights - Many tech companies are beating earnings estimates but still seeing stock price declines, indicating high investor expectations [6][12] - Qualcomm's recent earnings report did not provide additional details on a new data center chip, contributing to the stock's negative reaction [9] - Super Micro reported a 15.8% quarter-over-quarter growth in the semiconductor industry, but its stock fell due to design issues [21] Group 3: Warner Brothers Discovery - Warner Brothers Discovery reported a third-quarter loss of $148 million on $9 billion in revenue, with a 6% decline in revenue [33][38] - The company is planning to split into two entities by mid-2026, while also exploring strategic alternatives, including potential sales [35][36] - The studio and streaming businesses are seen as high-growth areas, generating nearly $4 billion in EBITDA, while the TV networks face challenges [41][49] Group 4: AI and Semiconductor Sector - The AI trade remains strong, with companies like Qualcomm, AMD, and Nvidia positioned to benefit from AI infrastructure investments [14][31] - Investors are encouraged to consider buying dips in semiconductor stocks, as earnings beats can lead to lower valuations if stock prices do not react positively [16][17] - The focus is shifting towards AI-powered infrastructure, including energy and networking opportunities [30][31] Group 5: M&A Activity - SoftBank is reportedly considering acquiring Marll Technology to combine it with ARM, indicating potential consolidation in the semiconductor space [24][25] - Marll is viewed as undervalued compared to peers, making it an attractive target for acquisition [25] Group 6: Supreme Court and Tariffs - The Supreme Court is hearing arguments regarding the legality of President Trump's tariffs, which have generated nearly $200 billion in revenue [74][120] - A ruling against the administration could lead to economic uncertainty and impact growth and hiring [120]

Financial Performance - Lyft's gross bookings increased by 16% in Q3 and are expected to accelerate into Q4 [3] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 29% [4] - The company generated $1 billion of free cash flow over the trailing 12 months [4] Market Opportunity & Growth - Ride share is still relatively underpenetrated, with a $300 billion personal vehicle market in North America and Europe [3] - Lyft saw a record number of riders taking a record number of rides [8] - Premium modes experienced growth of about 50% year-over-year [6] Pricing & Consumer Behavior - Pricing overall is stable [5] - The consumer remains resilient on the platform, with no observed weakness or trade-down in modes [8] Strategic Initiatives - Lyft announced a partnership with United Airlines [10] - Autonomous vehicles represent a great opportunity, with partnerships in place and an upcoming launch in Nashville with Whimo in 2026 [11]

Core Insights - Uber Technologies reported strong quarterly results, with significant growth in trips, gross bookings, and revenue, despite a stock price decline of over 5% following the announcement [1][2]. Financial Performance - Uber's trips, gross bookings, and revenue grew by 22%, 21%, and 20% respectively, all exceeding market expectations [2]. - Monthly active platform customers increased by 17% [2]. - The company reported an operating income that was slightly below expectations, but earnings per share were $3.11, significantly higher than the analyst forecast of $0.69, largely due to a $4.9 billion benefit from a tax valuation release [3]. Business Segments - Uber Eats showed exceptional performance with gross bookings growth of 25% and revenue growth of 29% [3].

Uber shares are falling despite the ride hailing company posting third quarter revenue that beat expectations. Wall Street seemingly sees bumps in the road ahead has to do looks like with earnings. Let's bring in Scott Devbush securities managing director of equity research.Hey Scott, it's good to see you. So yes, the revenue beat but operating income looked like it trailed estimates here. So what's sort of your your highle view on the quarter.>> Good morning Julia. I think the quarter was, you know, outsta ...

Core Viewpoint - Uber's stock is declining despite a revenue beat in Q3, primarily due to concerns over future earnings and the impact of autonomous vehicles on the ride-sharing industry [1][2]. Financial Performance - Uber reported third-quarter revenue that exceeded expectations, but operating income fell short of estimates [1]. - Gross bookings are on the rise, with projections for Q4 bookings to increase by 18% to 22% [7]. Industry Dynamics - The introduction of autonomous vehicles poses a significant risk to Uber's business model, potentially leading to a more concentrated supply of ride-sharing services [2][3]. - The ride-sharing market may experience fragmentation similar to human drivers, but advancements in technology from companies like Waymo and Tesla could disrupt this balance [3][9]. Competitive Landscape - Uber's current business performance is strong, but concerns exist regarding the long-term implications of autonomous technology, contrasting with Tesla's perceived future potential despite its current struggles [4][6]. - The risk of supply concentration could diminish Uber's role as a middleman, affecting its revenue model and market position [10][11]. Technological Considerations - The rapid advancement of autonomous vehicle technology could lead to significant changes in the transportation landscape, potentially sidelining traditional ride-sharing models [8][9]. - Companies like Tesla and Waymo are at the forefront of this technology, which may alter the competitive dynamics in the ride-sharing industry [12][13].

Market Overview - The market is experiencing a risk-off sentiment, with major indices showing declines, particularly the Nasdaq down about 1.1% [2][96] - Concerns over high valuations are impacting stock performance, especially following strong earnings reports from companies like Palantir [5][96] Palantir Technologies - Palantir reported strong third-quarter results, exceeding expectations with a run rate of over $4 billion and a growth rate of 63% [8][15] - Despite strong fundamentals, Palantir's stock is facing valuation concerns, trading at a price-to-sales ratio of approximately 85, the highest in the S&P 500 [11][12] - The company's government business grew by 50%, indicating strong demand for its services [9][15] - Analysts suggest that the stock's decline is more related to market sentiment rather than its financial performance [10][20] Uber Technologies - Uber's third-quarter revenue beat expectations, but concerns about future growth due to the potential impact of autonomous vehicles are weighing on its stock [27][28] - The introduction of autonomous vehicles could disrupt Uber's business model, leading to uncertainty about its future profitability [29][30] - Despite rising gross bookings, the market remains cautious about Uber's long-term outlook due to technological risks [32][34] Spotify Technology - Spotify reported strong third-quarter results, beating expectations on sales and user growth, and is planning for a leadership transition [41][42] - The company faces potential risks from consumer spending cuts, but its subscription service is seen as integral to users' lives [45][46] - Spotify's ad-supported revenue fell by 8% year-over-year, indicating challenges in its advertising model [48][49] General Market Sentiment - The overall market is experiencing a correction, with many tech stocks facing scrutiny over their valuations amid concerns of an AI bubble [96][102] - Companies like Nvidia and AMD are highlighted as key players in the AI space, but their valuations are considered frothy given the current market conditions [101][102] - Investors are advised to focus on companies with solid fundamentals and realistic growth prospects amidst the high valuation environment [104][115]