August 18, 2025 04:01 AM GMT US Equity Strategy | North America US Equity Strategy: Institutional 13F Positioning - 2Q25 M Investors added to Tech, Industrials, and Comm. Services in Q2, while trimming Healthcare, Financials, and Staples. Hedge funds remain underweight Tech, overweight small-cap Healthcare, and U.S. funds make up 81% of S&P 500 ownership. • Sector Shifts: Investors increased exposure to Technology (+1.9%), Industrials (+0.6%), and Communication Services (+0.6%), while reducing positions in ...

Summary of Global Exposure Guide 2025 – US Industry Overview - The report focuses on the North American market, specifically analyzing the revenue exposure of 998 US and Canadian companies to various global regions, particularly in the context of geopolitical tensions and economic volatility [2][12]. Key Findings Revenue Exposure - Companies in the North America database derive **26%** of their revenue from foreign sources, with the largest share coming from **Europe (11%)**, followed by **Asia ex-Japan & ex-China (4%)**, **Latin America (4%)**, and **China (3%)** [3][14]. - The sectors with the highest foreign revenue exposure are: - **Technology (55%)** - **Materials (48%)** - **Industrials (30%)** [18][29]. Geographic Revenue Exposure - The geographic breakdown of revenue exposure is as follows: - **US & Canada**: **74%** - **Europe**: **11%** - **Middle East & Africa**: **1%** - **China**: **3%** - **Japan**: **2%** - **Asia ex-Japan & China**: **4%** - **Latin America**: **4%** [5][16]. Sector and Industry Group Insights - The **Tech Hardware & Equipment** industry group has the highest foreign revenue exposure at **59%**, followed by **Household & Personal Products (50%)** and **Food, Beverage & Tobacco (44%)** [18][35]. - **Utilities** have the lowest foreign revenue exposure at **5%** [18]. End Demand Analysis - The primary sources of revenue are: - **Consumers**: **50%** - **Corporations**: **39%** - **Government**: **11%** [20][21]. - Domestic consumers account for **73%** of revenue exposure, while consumers from the rest of the world contribute **18%** [20]. Cost Exposure - Approximately **79%** of companies incur **50% or more** of their costs in North America, with **Asia Pacific** being the next largest cost center [24]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of understanding both revenue and cost exposures, especially in light of recent global events that have impacted supply chains [22][12]. - The data is based on estimates from Morgan Stanley analysts and is not available elsewhere, providing a unique perspective on the foreign revenue exposure of companies [12][26]. Conclusion - The Global Exposure Guide serves as a critical resource for investors to assess the potential risks and opportunities associated with foreign revenue exposure, particularly in a multipolar world where geopolitical dynamics are shifting [2][12].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The survey indicates that Nvidia, Microsoft, and OpenAI continue to dominate the AI landscape, with a focus on identifying potential tailwinds and headwinds for other players in the market [2][4] - 100% of surveyed organizations are in the AI investigation stage, but only 14% are in production at scale, highlighting a slow adoption curve [3][8] - The average AI spend per organization is $3.27 million, with larger companies spending more, indicating that AI investments are still in early stages [3][56] Overall Enterprise AI Adoption - 100% of respondents are investigating AI use cases, but only 14% are in production at scale, suggesting a slow adoption curve [3][8] - The average AI spend per organization is $3.27 million, representing only 0.4% of the average IT budget of $806 million [56] - The most frequently cited hurdle for AI adoption is "unclear ROI," with 72% of respondents indicating that AI spending would displace other IT budget items [8][62] Key Players and Market Dynamics - Nvidia remains the preferred platform for both training and inference, with 86% of respondents choosing Nvidia for training and 87% for inference [12][4] - Microsoft maintains a strong lead in hosting AI workloads, followed by AWS, with only 13% of enterprises reporting material GPU constraints [10][4] - OpenAI's models dominate the enterprise market, with Google Gemini emerging as a significant competitor [11][4] Application and Data Software Trends - Microsoft M365 Copilot and GitHub Copilot are leading applications in their respective markets, with significant adoption among enterprises [5][16] - The DIY option for AI solutions is gaining traction, indicating a shift away from third-party software [19][5] - Data software firms are expected to benefit from increased AI spending, particularly in cloud-based data warehouses [17][5] IT Spending Outlook - The average expected increase in IT budgets for 2025 is 4.4%, unchanged from the previous survey, indicating a stable spending outlook [38] - 72% of respondents expect AI spending to displace other IT budget items, with a notable increase in the desire to consolidate IT solutions [62][66] - The survey results suggest that enterprises are likely to defer back-office investments to fund AI initiatives [66][8]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a strong performance in the Asia EM equity strategy, particularly highlighting Japan's earnings as a standout with a net beat ratio of +25 percentage points [2][7]. Core Insights - The earnings results for 1Q25 showed a strong performance across the Asia EM region, with Japan leading at +23.3%, followed by Korea (+20.3%), Singapore (+11.9%), and Thailand (+10.5%) [2][3][26]. - Emerging Markets (EM) overall reported a moderate earnings beat of +4.7%, while Asia Pacific ex-Japan (APxJ) saw a slightly higher beat of +6.0% [2][12]. - The report notes that the strong earnings in Japan are attributed to corporate and consumer activities that were brought forward ahead of tariff announcements in early April [1]. Summary by Region - Japan reported a remarkable earnings surprise of +23.3% with a net beat ratio of 25%, marking the second consecutive quarter of strong performance [7][26]. - Korea and Singapore also performed well, with earnings surprises of +20.3% and +11.9% respectively, while Thailand reported +10.5% [3][26]. - In contrast, Brazil experienced significant misses with an earnings surprise of -7.8%, and Turkey reported a substantial decline of -29.1% [3][26]. Summary by Sector - Major sectors showing strong earnings beats include Industrials (+16.6%), Communication Services (+11.6%), and Health Care (+10.3%) [4][32]. - Consumer Staples and Materials sectors reported slight misses, with Consumer Staples at -1.6% and Materials at -1.1% [4][32]. - The Capital Goods and Telecom Services industries were particularly strong, with earnings surprises of +24.4% and +21.5% respectively [4][32]. Stock-Level Surprises - The report highlights key stock-level surprises, focusing on companies rated Overweight (OW) that are expected to see increases in 12-month consensus estimates following strong earnings beats [5]. - Conversely, Underweight (UW) rated companies are anticipated to experience downgrades due to earnings misses [5]. Revenue Surprises - Revenue results across the region showed slight beats, with EM at +1.3%, APxJ at +1.1%, and Japan slightly missing at -0.1% [2][3]. - The report emphasizes that revenue surprises were generally positive, contributing to the overall strong earnings performance in the region [2][3].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or specific companies. Core Insights - Emerging Market (EM) equity funds experienced outflows of US$1.2 billion in the week ending April 30, 2025, with China leading the outflows at US$2.8 billion, partially offset by inflows from India (US$0.7 billion), Brazil (US$0.5 billion), Korea (US$0.4 billion), and Taiwan (US$0.4 billion) [2][3] - GEM long-only managers increased their overweights in Brazil and Korea while reducing their underweight in China, funded by adding to India underweight and cutting South Africa overweight [3][4] - Japanese equities saw foreign inflows of US$3.7 billion in the week ending April 25, 2025, although year-to-date flows remain net sold [5] Market Dynamics - In March 2025, GEM investors trimmed underweights in Consumer Discretionary Distribution & Retail and Telecommunication Services, funded by cutting overweights in Semiconductors and Media & Entertainment [4] - The underweight in Japan among long-only investors narrowed to 27 basis points as of the end of March 2025, down from 39 basis points at the end of December 2024 [5] - Active long-only managers added to overweight positions in Consumer Durables & Apparels and trimmed underweight in Automobiles & Components, funded by adding to underweight in Capital Goods [5] Fund Positioning - As of March 31, 2025, the relative market allocation of EM fund managers shows a significant underweight in China, which has narrowed, while both portfolio and index weights have risen [11] - The report highlights that the active fund positions in EM equities by market show Brazil with a portfolio weight of 7.8%, India at 19.5%, and Korea at 9.0% [21] - Sector positioning indicates that Financials account for 24.1% of the portfolio, followed by Information Technology at 21.5% and Consumer Discretionary at 14.5% [23][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an Equal-weight (EW) stance on MSCI China within the global EM/APXJ framework [9]. Core Insights - The report anticipates higher near-term market volatility due to the US imposing additional tariffs on China, raising the total tariff rate to up to 65% [2][4]. - The A-share market is viewed as better positioned for hedging and diversification compared to the offshore market, as A-share investors are less sensitive to tariff changes [3]. - The direct impact on earnings from the tariffs is expected to be smaller than the overall drag on macroeconomic growth, with the MSCI China universe generating only 13% of its total revenue from markets outside China, and less than 3% from the US [7]. Summary by Sections Market Volatility - The report highlights that the recent tariff hikes could lead to elevated market volatility as the market adjusts to the potential economic impacts [2][4]. A-Share Market Positioning - The A-share market is recommended for investors seeking stability, as it has shown lower correlation with global markets and less volatility compared to offshore markets [3]. Earnings Impact - The report suggests that the overall drag on equity market earnings will be less severe than the impact on macro growth, primarily due to the limited revenue exposure of listed Chinese companies to the US market [7]. Companies with High US Revenue Exposure - A list of 30 companies with the highest revenue exposure to the US market is provided, indicating potential negative impacts on these companies in the near term [8]. Key Indicators to Monitor - The report advises monitoring the USDCNY exchange rate, signs of US-China negotiations, and any significant policy easing measures to stabilize domestic growth [9].

Summary of Earnings Call for Asia EM Equity Strategy Industry Overview - The earnings results for Emerging Markets (EM) and Asia Pacific excluding Japan (APxJ) in 4Q CY24 were generally in line with expectations, with EM showing a slight increase of +0.8% and APxJ at +1.5% [2][10] - Japan reported a strong earnings season with a notable increase of +13.7%, driven by a high net beat ratio of +23 percentage points [2][6] - China also showed positive momentum with earnings growth of +7.7% [3][6] Sector Performance - The Communication Services sector led the earnings surprises with a +15.2% increase, particularly driven by Telecom Services which saw a remarkable +36.0% [4][31] - Real Estate also performed well with an earnings surprise of +11.9% [31] - Conversely, the Materials sector faced significant challenges, reporting a decline of -15.2%, with Paper & Forest Products showing a major miss at -68.4% [4][31] - Utilities also underperformed with a -6.9% surprise [31] Regional Insights - EEMEA (Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa) reported a solid aggregate beat of +6.8%, with notable contributions from the United Arab Emirates (+12.6%), Saudi Arabia (+9.1%), and South Africa (+8.6%) [3][6] - In contrast, Latin America faced major misses, with an overall decline of -16.8%, primarily due to Brazil (-20.7%), Chile (-20.3%), and Mexico (-10.8%) [3][6] Key Stock-Level Surprises - A list of companies expected to see upward revisions in their earnings estimates includes: - Sea Ltd (Communication Services) with a market cap of $76.85 billion and a price target upside of 31% [5] - XPeng Inc. (Consumer Discretionary) with a market cap of $19.21 billion and an expected upside of 18% [5] - Tenaga Nasional (Utilities) showing a significant upside potential of 53% [5] Earnings Surprise Ratios - Japan's earnings surprise ratio was the highest at 13.7%, with 54% of companies reporting above expectations [6][25] - In contrast, Brazil had the lowest surprise ratio at -20.7%, with 28% of companies missing consensus [6][25] Additional Insights - The breadth of earnings surprises was weaker across EM and APxJ, with EM showing a -7 percentage point breadth and APxJ at -4 percentage points [2][6] - The overall revenue performance across the region slightly beat expectations, with EM at +1.8%, APxJ at +1.4%, and Japan at +1.9% [2][6] This summary encapsulates the key findings from the earnings call, highlighting the performance of various sectors and regions, as well as specific stock-level surprises that may present investment opportunities.