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中国期货每日简报-20250725
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 09:01
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; sentiment against involution picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again [2][4][11] - The top three gainers were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass, while the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live hog [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, anti - involution sentiment picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 8.0% with 13.0% month - on - month open interest increase), lithium carbonate (up 7.2% with 20.6% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (up 6.9% with 6.9% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 2.6% with 4.8% month - on - month open interest drop), soybean meal (down 2.3% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and live hog (down 2.2% with 7.2% month - on - month open interest down) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Synthetic Rubber - On July 24, synthetic rubber increased by 2.4% to 11875 yuan/ton, remaining range - bound. It is mainly driven by macro factors, and it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. There are no major fundamental changes, and with improved market expectations and better butadiene transactions, the short - term price center may rise [17][18][19] 1.2.2 TSR 20 - On July 24, TSR 20 increased by 2.3% to 12775 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 1.5% to 15005 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are likely to rise following the overall commodity sentiment. Driven by the anti - involution theme and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's press conference, market bullish sentiment is strengthened. Rubber fundamentals have no major short - term contradictions. Supply is limited due to rainy seasons in Asian producing areas, and demand is relatively stable. In the third quarter, there may be destocking transactions, and if the macro sentiment remains, rubber prices may rise further [24][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Rapeseed Meal - On July 24, rapeseed meal decreased by 2.6% to 2682 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.3% to 3025 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal outperform U.S. soybeans, and the basis is expected to run weakly. Domestically, soybean meal inventories accumulate. Internationally, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68%, and there is a risk of less precipitation in the producing areas. Sino - U.S. trade frictions affect U.S. soybean exports. Protein meal futures face short - term adjustment risks but are expected to run strongly in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of July 24, President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations. Premier Li Qiang will attend the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High - Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 26. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation opened the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments)" for public comments [37][38][40] 2.2 Industry News - According to SWIFT, in June, the RMB ranked as the world's sixth most active payment currency with a 2.88% share, and with euro - area - outside international payments as the statistical caliber, it ranked sixth with a 2.12% share [40]