今日早盘，小编刚发了刚刚，金、银价格急跌后反弹，油价大涨！数十万人爆仓！特朗普称俄对乌部分地区停火一周 结果，市场直接来了个"大嘴巴子"，全球金融市场集体杀跌，再现剧烈波动！ 金属板块昨日巨震后，今日急转直下 截至发稿，伦敦金跌4.45%，伦敦银跌7.05%，伦铝跌1.52%，伦铜跌2.86%，纽约铂跌8.07%，纽约钯跌7.83%。 国内商品期货市场收盘，主力合约多数下跌。跌幅方面，碳酸锂跌停，跌幅10.99%，钯跌近12%，铂跌超11%，沪锡跌超8%，多晶硅、沪银跌超6%，沪 金、铸造铝跌超4%，沪镍跌近4%，沪铝跌超3%，国际铜、沪铜跌近3%，不锈钢跌超2%，玻璃、氧化铝跌近2%，欧线集运、棉花、沪铅、鸡蛋、纸浆等 跌超1%；涨幅方面，PVC涨超3%，原木涨超2%，焦煤、丁二烯胶、焦炭涨超1%。 一德期货贵金属分析师张晨表示，2026年以来，贵金属市场大幅上涨，其中金、银、铂价格不断创历史新高，白银市场更是出现单月价格涨超60%的史诗 级暴涨，市场看涨情绪浓厚。如今，金属市场冲高后回落且下跌斜率陡峭，原因是前期行情火热下的部分潜在利空因素开始兑现： 一是资金减仓离场。比如，世界最大的白银SLV-ETF在 ...

Investment consulting business qualification：CSRC License [2012] No. 669 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669 号 中 信 期 货 国 际 化 研 究 | 中 信 期 货 研 究 所 International 中信期货国际化研究 | CITIC Futures International Research 2024 202-6/01/2 10-093 China Futures Daily Note 中国期货每日简报 桂晨曦 Gui Chenxi 从业资格号 Qualification No：F3023159 投资咨询号 Consulting No.：Z0013632 CITIC Futures International Service Platform：https://internationalservice.citicsf.com 摘要 Abstract Macro News: The first tranche of funds from ultra-long-term special treasury bonds to ...

Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index (H11057) rose by 1.88%, marking a four-day winning streak, with significant gains from major stocks such as China Petroleum up 1.5% and China Petrochemical up 4.19% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), which tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, has seen a net inflow of over 64 million in the last four days and nearly 200 million in the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for 249 chemical products starting April 1, prompting overseas customers to place concentrated orders in the first quarter, benefiting the chemical sector [3] Group 2 - Energy and chemical futures experienced a broad increase, with butadiene rubber and ethylene glycol both rising over 4%, while pure benzene and asphalt increased by more than 2% [3] - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry is a typical cyclical sector that usually follows a five-year cycle, and the current phase is seen as a "dawn" period for the industry, supported by factors such as negative capital expenditure growth and improved demand expectations [3] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF offers a low-cost investment opportunity in traditional energy sectors, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2% per year [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; sentiment against involution picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again [2][4][11] - The top three gainers were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass, while the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live hog [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, anti - involution sentiment picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 8.0% with 13.0% month - on - month open interest increase), lithium carbonate (up 7.2% with 20.6% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (up 6.9% with 6.9% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 2.6% with 4.8% month - on - month open interest drop), soybean meal (down 2.3% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and live hog (down 2.2% with 7.2% month - on - month open interest down) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Synthetic Rubber - On July 24, synthetic rubber increased by 2.4% to 11875 yuan/ton, remaining range - bound. It is mainly driven by macro factors, and it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. There are no major fundamental changes, and with improved market expectations and better butadiene transactions, the short - term price center may rise [17][18][19] 1.2.2 TSR 20 - On July 24, TSR 20 increased by 2.3% to 12775 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 1.5% to 15005 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are likely to rise following the overall commodity sentiment. Driven by the anti - involution theme and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's press conference, market bullish sentiment is strengthened. Rubber fundamentals have no major short - term contradictions. Supply is limited due to rainy seasons in Asian producing areas, and demand is relatively stable. In the third quarter, there may be destocking transactions, and if the macro sentiment remains, rubber prices may rise further [24][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Rapeseed Meal - On July 24, rapeseed meal decreased by 2.6% to 2682 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.3% to 3025 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal outperform U.S. soybeans, and the basis is expected to run weakly. Domestically, soybean meal inventories accumulate. Internationally, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68%, and there is a risk of less precipitation in the producing areas. Sino - U.S. trade frictions affect U.S. soybean exports. Protein meal futures face short - term adjustment risks but are expected to run strongly in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of July 24, President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations. Premier Li Qiang will attend the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High - Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 26. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation opened the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments)" for public comments [37][38][40] 2.2 Industry News - According to SWIFT, in June, the RMB ranked as the world's sixth most active payment currency with a 2.88% share, and with euro - area - outside international payments as the statistical caliber, it ranked sixth with a 2.12% share [40]