Market Overview - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with gold prices dropping by 4.45% and silver by 7.05% as of the latest report [1] - The domestic commodity futures market saw most contracts decline, with lithium carbonate hitting a limit down of 10.99% and palladium dropping nearly 12% [1] - The A-share market showed mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.96% and the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.66%, while the ChiNext Index rose by 1.27% [4] Precious Metals Analysis - Since 2026, the precious metals market has seen substantial increases, with gold, silver, and platinum reaching historical highs, and silver prices experiencing a monthly surge of over 60% [3] - Recent market corrections are attributed to several factors, including significant fund liquidation, with the world's largest silver ETF reducing holdings by nearly 1,000 tons [3] - Regulatory measures have been implemented to cool down the market, increasing the cost of capital and prompting profit-taking among investors [3] A-Share Market Insights - The A-share market showed a cumulative increase of 3.76% in January, characterized by a "high after narrow fluctuations" trend, stabilizing above the 4100-point mark [5] - Analysts noted that the valuation levels of hot sectors have risen significantly, with the CSI 500 index's dynamic PE exceeding the standard deviation of the past five years [7] - Regulatory bodies emphasized the need for stable market conditions, discouraging excessive speculation and manipulation, indicating a preference for sustainable growth over rapid increases [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On January 22, equity index futures were mixed, most CGB futures traded lower, and most commodities rose, with energy & chemicals futures leading the rises [2][10]. - The first tranche of 93.6 billion yuan in funds from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrading in 2026 has been allocated, driving a total investment of over 460 billion yuan [38][40]. - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the EU's listing of some Chinese enterprises as high - risk suppliers [39][40]. Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On January 22, in equity index futures, IM rose 0.9% and IH dropped 0.5%; in CGB futures, TL dropped 0.07% and T dropped 0.05%. In commodity futures, the top three gainers were Synthetic Rubber (up 4.7% with open interest increasing 3.2% month - on - month), Ethylene Glycol (up 4.5% with open interest decreasing 5.8% month - on - month), and Ethenylbenzene (up 4.1% with open interest increasing 82.1% month - on - month). The top three decliners were Palladium (down 1.9% with open interest decreasing 0.2% month - on - month), Platinum (down 0.9% with open interest decreasing 2.7% month - on - month), and Sodium Hydroxide (down 0.5% with open interest decreasing 1.2% month - on - month) [10][11][12]. 1.2 Daily Raise 1.2.1 Synthetic Rubber - On January 22, Synthetic Rubber rose 4.7% to 12,270 yuan/ton. The mid - term bullish logic for the futures market remains intact, based on the expectation of marginal improvement in the fundamental outlook. Raw material supply is tight, and the market may shift into a high - level consolidation phase. Last week, the spot market price of Synthetic Rubber extended its upward trend due to positive export news, scarce circulating supplies, and strong downstream product performance [16][17][20]. 1.2.2 Benzene - On January 22, Benzene rose 3.0% to 6000 yuan/ton. The core reasons include the first destocking in nearly two months at East China benzene ports, downstream styrene's tight supply - demand balance leading to downstream profit - locking, the potential cancellation of the U.S. tariff on South Korean pure benzene, and pure benzene being a target for capital to accumulate long positions as a low - valuation variety in the aromatics long - position segment [23][24][28]. 1.2.3 PTA - On January 22, PTA rose 2.8% to 5298 yuan/ton. International crude oil traded stagnantly, and the polyester industrial chain price moved sluggishly. Due to ample upstream PX supply, PTA spot margins continued to expand. It is expected to trade in a range - bound consolidation in the short term, and the positive spread arbitrage logic for TA05 - 09 futures contract spread remains intact [32][33][35]. 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - The first tranche of 93.6 billion yuan in funds from ultra - long - term special treasury bonds to support equipment upgrading in 2026 has been allocated, supporting about 4,500 projects in multiple sectors and driving over 460 billion yuan in total investment. Meanwhile, funds will continue to support the scrappage and renewal of old commercial freight vehicles, the upgrading of new energy urban public buses, and the scrappage and renewal of old agricultural machinery [38][40]. - The Ministry of Commerce firmly opposes the EU's discriminatory practices against Chinese enterprises and its act of politicizing economic and trade issues by listing some Chinese enterprises as high - risk suppliers [39][40].

Group 1 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index (H11057) rose by 1.88%, marking a four-day winning streak, with significant gains from major stocks such as China Petroleum up 1.5% and China Petrochemical up 4.19% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570), which tracks the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, has seen a net inflow of over 64 million in the last four days and nearly 200 million in the past 60 days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The Ministry of Finance announced the cancellation of export tax rebates for 249 chemical products starting April 1, prompting overseas customers to place concentrated orders in the first quarter, benefiting the chemical sector [3] Group 2 - Energy and chemical futures experienced a broad increase, with butadiene rubber and ethylene glycol both rising over 4%, while pure benzene and asphalt increased by more than 2% [3] - According to GF Securities, the chemical industry is a typical cyclical sector that usually follows a five-year cycle, and the current phase is seen as a "dawn" period for the industry, supported by factors such as negative capital expenditure growth and improved demand expectations [3] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF offers a low-cost investment opportunity in traditional energy sectors, with a combined management and custody fee of only 0.2% per year [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - On July 24, equity index futures rose while CGB futures fell; sentiment against involution picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again [2][4][11] - The top three gainers were coking coal, lithium carbonate, and glass, while the top three decliners were rapeseed meal, soybean meal, and live hog [11][12][13] Summary by Directory 1. China Futures 1.1 Overview - On July 24, equity index futures rose, CGB futures fell, anti - involution sentiment picked up, and coking coal hit the daily limit again. The top three gainers were coking coal (up 8.0% with 13.0% month - on - month open interest increase), lithium carbonate (up 7.2% with 20.6% month - on - month open interest increase), and glass (up 6.9% with 6.9% month - on - month open interest decrease). The top three decliners were rapeseed meal (down 2.6% with 4.8% month - on - month open interest drop), soybean meal (down 2.3% with 9.3% month - on - month open interest decrease), and live hog (down 2.2% with 7.2% month - on - month open interest down) [11][12][13] 1.2 Daily Rise 1.2.1 Synthetic Rubber - On July 24, synthetic rubber increased by 2.4% to 11875 yuan/ton, remaining range - bound. It is mainly driven by macro factors, and it may enter a consolidation phase in the short term. There are no major fundamental changes, and with improved market expectations and better butadiene transactions, the short - term price center may rise [17][18][19] 1.2.2 TSR 20 - On July 24, TSR 20 increased by 2.3% to 12775 yuan/ton, and natural rubber increased by 1.5% to 15005 yuan/ton. Short - term prices are likely to rise following the overall commodity sentiment. Driven by the anti - involution theme and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's press conference, market bullish sentiment is strengthened. Rubber fundamentals have no major short - term contradictions. Supply is limited due to rainy seasons in Asian producing areas, and demand is relatively stable. In the third quarter, there may be destocking transactions, and if the macro sentiment remains, rubber prices may rise further [24][26][27] 1.3 Daily Drop 1.3.1 Rapeseed Meal - On July 24, rapeseed meal decreased by 2.6% to 2682 yuan/ton, and soybean meal decreased by 2.3% to 3025 yuan/ton. Domestic soybean meal and rapeseed meal outperform U.S. soybeans, and the basis is expected to run weakly. Domestically, soybean meal inventories accumulate. Internationally, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate is 68%, and there is a risk of less precipitation in the producing areas. Sino - U.S. trade frictions affect U.S. soybean exports. Protein meal futures face short - term adjustment risks but are expected to run strongly in the long term [32][33][34] 2. China News 2.1 Macro News - On the morning of July 24, President Xi Jinping met with European Council President Costa and European Commission President von der Leyen, emphasizing the importance of China - EU relations. Premier Li Qiang will attend the 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and High - Level Meeting on Global AI Governance on July 26. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation opened the "Amendment Draft of the Price Law of the People's Republic of China (Draft for Comments)" for public comments [37][38][40] 2.2 Industry News - According to SWIFT, in June, the RMB ranked as the world's sixth most active payment currency with a 2.88% share, and with euro - area - outside international payments as the statistical caliber, it ranked sixth with a 2.12% share [40]