9月底以来，国内外原油价格持续下行，与价格屡创新高的黄金形成强烈反差。其中，NYMEX WTI原 油期货价格一度跌破57美元／桶，ICE Brent原油期货2601合约也一度跌破60美元／桶。此外，预防性 降息利好美国贵金属和美股，而铜和原油受实体经济影响较大，其价格走势取决于市场实际供应情况、 各国经济状况以及对商品的需求。 从原油供需基本面来看，全球原油增产态势明确。一方面，OPEC为争夺市场份额放弃自愿减产；另一 方面，美国等非OPEC国家的原油产量也在不断增长。此外，地缘政治风险缓和，伊朗和俄罗斯原油出 口有望恢复，这使得全球原油库存持续攀升。而原油需求端表现疲软，显示当前原油价格的支撑力量仅 来自美联储降息所带来的投资需求，不足以扭转原油价格的跌势。 增产引发供应过剩担忧 目前，增产引发的供应过剩担忧是原油市场的核心矛盾。数据显示，10月，由沙特领导的OPEC为重新 夺回市场份额，正在撤销此前实施的减产举措，OPEC原油供应量有望升至3469万桶／日，创下2018年 12月以来的最高纪录。10月初，OPEC宣布进一步增产，即在11月增产13.7万桶／日，增产幅度与10月 相同。OPEC正在逐步放弃2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) and its potential to increase its share in global reserves, currently at 2%, by leveraging China's economic growth and expanding foreign investment opportunities in RMB-denominated assets [3][9]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - Since 2009, China's efforts to internationalize the RMB have shown limited progress, with its international usage still less than half that of the British pound and significantly lower than the US dollar [4]. - China's GDP share in global GDP has increased from 6% in 2000 to 19% in 2023, highlighting its growing economic influence [3]. - The RMB's internationalization could be accelerated by emerging market central banks diversifying their assets, especially in the context of geopolitical changes post-2022 [4]. Group 2: Determinants of Reserve Currency Status - Key factors influencing the choice of reserve currency include inertia, economic size, financial market depth, currency credibility, and increasingly, geopolitical considerations [5]. - A panel regression model from 1986 to 2022 reveals that reserve currency status exhibits strong inertia, with adjustments to reserve composition being slow and minimal in the short term [6]. - Economic size is identified as the most significant determinant of reserve currency share, with potential critical points where further GDP increases could lead to disproportionate growth in reserve share [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Insights on Currency Dominance - Historical transitions of currency dominance, such as the shift from the pound to the dollar, illustrate that becoming a dominant currency is a lengthy process, often taking decades [8]. - The policies and actions of both the challenger and the incumbent currency significantly impact the international use of currencies [8]. - Major economic downturns can hinder the internationalization process of a currency, as seen in past instances with the dollar and other currencies [8]. Group 4: Unique Aspects of RMB Internationalization - China's approach to RMB internationalization may focus on expanding the offshore market (CNH) while keeping the onshore market (CNY) relatively stable [10]. - The RMB's internationalization is expected to play a more significant role in foreign direct investment (FDI), particularly towards Belt and Road Initiative countries [11]. - The development of a cross-border payment system (CIPS) and RMB-denominated commodity trading is part of China's strategy to enhance the RMB's global standing [12]. Group 5: Challenges and Opportunities - The growing manufacturing strength of China and geopolitical changes present new opportunities for RMB internationalization, but challenges remain in balancing market stability with foreign investor demands [13]. - The rise of stablecoins and financial innovations poses regulatory challenges, necessitating urgent strategies from Chinese authorities to address potential risks and ensure effective oversight [13].