"2025年上海写字楼市场穿越逆周期， 2026年将是完成新旧动能转换的关键一年。"1月15日，莱坊华北 和华东区董事总经理黄蔚如是表示。 近日，多家商业地产顾问服务公司相继发布2025年第四季度及全年报告与2026年展望。整体来看，2025 年上海甲级办公楼市场尽管需求复苏速度缓慢，但呈现逐季递增的趋势。CBRE世邦魏理仕的报告显 示，下半年随着企业搬迁和扩租活动明显增多，全年净吸纳量同比增长76.6%。仲量联行的报告显示， 2025年四季度，整体市场流动性继续温和修复，随着甲级与乙级项目之间的租金差距缩小，升级需求持 续释放。莱坊的报告显示，2025年第四季度市场新增供应环比增长55%，不过净吸纳量环比增长9.3%， 释放出需求端改善的积极信号。 仲量联行上海商业地产部总监兼华东区零售地产部负责人黄臻表示："整体市场继续利好租户方，企业 利用当前市场条件积极争取有利的租约条款和升级机会，部分行业在年末录得大面积成交。" 展望2026年，多家商业地产顾问服务公司的报告认为，"十五五"规划的开局有望为市场注入强劲动力， 推动市场供需更趋动态平衡。 莱坊的报告指出，从市场基本面看，供应压力有望边际缓解。过去五年 ...

Core Insights - The Shanghai office market is expected to navigate through a cyclical downturn, with 2026 being a pivotal year for transitioning between old and new growth drivers [1] Group 1: Market Demand and Supply - The demand for Grade A office space in Shanghai is gradually recovering, with a year-on-year net absorption increase of 76.6% in 2025, driven by increased corporate relocations and expansions [1] - The total net absorption for 2025 reached 218,800 square meters, indicating a narrowing decline of 11 percentage points compared to 2024, suggesting that the demand contraction is nearing its end [2] - The overall market liquidity is showing a mild recovery, with a 55% quarter-on-quarter increase in new supply in Q4 2025, while net absorption grew by 9.3% quarter-on-quarter [1] Group 2: Rental Trends - Rental rates in the central business district (CBD) decreased by 2.8% quarter-on-quarter and 12.1% year-on-year, averaging 6.4 yuan per square meter per day, while non-CBD rents fell by 2.7% quarter-on-quarter and 11.0% year-on-year, averaging 4.2 yuan per square meter per day [1] - The rental market remains favorable for tenants, with landlords maintaining flexible negotiation terms [1] Group 3: Sector-Specific Demand - The TMT sector has surpassed the financial sector, accounting for 20% of the demand, with significant contributions from gaming, e-commerce, and AI companies [2] - The financial sector holds a 19% share, with insurance, funds, and investment banks being the primary demand drivers [2] - Emerging consumer goods sectors, including outdoor and pet products, are also expanding, contributing to a 13% share of the market [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The supply pressure is expected to ease marginally, with a planned total supply of approximately 3.7 million square meters over the next 3-5 years, continuing the trend of decreasing new supply [3] - The introduction of commercial real estate public REITs is anticipated to provide crucial liquidity support to the market [3] - The year 2026 is projected to be significant for the application of AI technology, which is expected to drive investment and job growth, aiding in inventory reduction [3]

1月14日，仲量联行发布2025年第四季度上海房地产市场回顾与展望报告。数据显示，2025年第四季 度，上海甲级办公楼市场成本驱动型的搬迁和升级需求继续释放。仲量联行上海商业地产部总监兼华东 区零售地产部负责人黄臻表示："整体市场继续利好租户方，企业利用当前市场条件积极争取有利的租 约条款和升级机会，部分行业在年末大面积成交。" 2025年四季度，上海甲级写字楼市场流动性继续温和修复，全市净吸纳量16.1万平方米。其中，中央商 务区净吸纳量5.3万平方米，非中央商务区市场10.8万平方米。随着甲级与乙级项目之间的租金差距缩 小，升级需求持续释放。 在供给方面，去年四季度上海迎来31.5万平方米的项目竣工交付，全年新增供应达103.7万平方米。其 中，中央商务区去年四季度的两个项目竣工交付，共计24.3万平方米，推动空置率环比上升1.7个百分 点，同比上升1.6个百分点，达到18.0%。 租金仍处于下行通道。去年四季度，上海中央商务区市场租金环比下降2.8%，同比下降12.1%，达到6.4 元每平方米每天，非中央商务区租金环比下降2.7%，同比下降11.0%，达到4.2元每平方米每天。 产业园市场方面， 202 ...