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信用债|详解消费金融ABS投资价值与风险识别
中信证券研究· 2025-04-11 00:08
Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the national strategy to promote consumption upgrades has led to a year-on-year recovery in the growth rate of consumer loan balances, positively impacting the issuance and quality of consumer finance ABS [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Consumer Finance ABS - The continuous push for consumption upgrades has resulted in increased consumer loan balances, which in turn has elevated the supply of consumer finance ABS. In contrast, the issuance and net financing scale of non-financial credit bonds have decreased compared to the first quarter of 2024 [2]. - The quality of underlying assets for consumer finance ABS has significantly improved, with no reported defaults or downgrades in 2024, indicating a stable investment environment [2]. - In 2025, the priority ABS is expected to offer better value compared to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds, catering to low-risk preference investors such as banks and insurance funds [2]. Group 2: Current Status of Consumer Finance ABS - As of March 20, 2025, there are 437 outstanding consumer finance ABS with a total balance of approximately 392.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the total outstanding asset-backed securities [3]. - The distribution of underlying assets includes consumer loan ABS (371 cases), auto loan ABS (65 cases), and credit card installment loan ABS (1 case), with consumer loan ABS making up over half of the total balance [3]. Group 3: Product Design of Consumer Finance ABS - Consumer finance ABS features mechanisms such as credit triggers, revolving purchase settings, and special mechanisms to enhance asset efficiency and investor protection [4][5]. - The credit trigger mechanism includes provisions for subordinate securities to absorb losses first, ensuring the repayment of principal and interest to senior investors [4]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management of Consumer Finance ABS - The credit risk management measures at both the securities and underlying asset levels are robust, with subordinate securities designed to absorb potential losses effectively [6]. - The asset pool management includes a comprehensive risk management system throughout the loan lifecycle, from pre-loan assessments to post-loan monitoring [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Outlook for Consumer Finance ABS - The high proportion of private placements in outstanding consumer finance ABS indicates relatively lower liquidity in the secondary market, making it suitable for strategic allocations [7]. - The average yield for senior consumer finance ABS is 2.20%, while the middle-tier average yield is 2.67%, suggesting attractive investment opportunities in these segments [7].