一、消费金融 ABS 市场概况 1、消费金融 ABS 发行活跃 进入 2025 年以来，消费金融 ABS 新发市场延续了 2024 年以来的增长态势，发行单数和发行规 模同比增幅显著。2025 年 1－7 月，银行间债券市场和交易所市场共发行 331 单消费金融 ABS，同 比增长 63.86%；发行规模合计 2838.29 亿元，同比增长 76.66%。2025 年 1－7 月，消费金融 ABS 占 ABS 市场总发行规模的比重较去年年底进一步上升（增长了 8.99 个百分点至 25.90%）。 图 1 2020 年－2025 年 7 月国内消费金融 ABS 发行单数及其占比 图 2 2020 年－2025 年 7 月国内消费金融 ABS 发行规模及其占比 注：1．企业资产支持证券简称"交易所 ABS"；信贷资产支持证券简称"信贷 ABS"；资产支持票据简称"ABN"； 2．本次统计消费金融 ABS，主要包括在交易所发行的个人消费金融 ABS 以及银行间市场发行的个人消费金融 ABS 和信用卡分期 ABS，不包含对 小微企业的经营贷 ABS 数据来源：Wind，联合资信整理 从发行场所来看，2025 年 1 ...

Core Viewpoint - The consumer finance industry in 2025 is characterized by a dual approach of "increasing revenue" and "cost-saving" under the pressures of asset quality optimization and liquidity management. Institutions are accelerating the disposal of non-performing assets while utilizing asset-backed securities (ABS) to open low-cost financing channels, creating differentiated paths for capital replenishment [2][11]. Group 1: Non-Performing Asset Management - The market for transferring non-performing assets in the consumer finance sector has been heating up, with 8 consumer finance companies listing 37 non-performing asset packages in May alone, including major players like Zhaolian Consumer Finance and Ant Consumer Finance [2][3]. - As of the end of the first quarter, consumer finance companies have become the second-largest sellers in the personal loan non-performing asset market [2]. - In May 2025, 8 licensed consumer finance companies collectively transferred non-performing assets exceeding 8 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Asset-Backed Securities (ABS) Issuance - In 2025, consumer finance companies have issued a total of 15 ABS products, with a total issuance amount of 7.458 billion yuan, and some products have seen interest rates drop below 2%, reaching as low as 1.9% [2][9]. - The issuance of ABS is seen as a crucial method for consumer finance companies to optimize their liability structure and enhance asset liquidity, thereby improving their ability to withstand risks [12]. - The People's Bank of China has supported the issuance of financial bonds by consumer finance companies and is studying the increase of registration quotas for consumer credit asset securitization [11][12].

Report Title - "The Divergence of Long - Short Term Spreads - Credit Spread Weekly Report (5/4)" [1][6] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - From April 27th to April 30th, most bond yields declined. For 0.5 - 1Y industrial bonds, commercial bank second - tier capital bonds, securities company subordinated bonds, and securities company perpetual bonds, most yields dropped by over 2bp; for 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields decreased by over 1bp; for 2Y industrial bonds and commercial financial bonds, most yields declined by over 1bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bond yield rose by over 2bp; and the 3 - 5Y commercial financial bond yield dropped by over 2bp. Regarding credit spreads, the 0.5Y industrial bonds and commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spreads mostly narrowed by over 5bp; the 1Y commercial bank second - tier capital bond credit spread narrowed by over 3bp; the 2Y securities company subordinated bonds and securities company perpetual bond credit spreads widened by over 3bp; and the 5Y urban investment bonds and industrial bond credit spreads mostly widened by over 2bp [2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Yield and Spread Overview Yield and Spread of Each Maturity - Treasury bond yields at 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y were 1.47%, 1.46%, 1.45%, 1.48%, and 1.52% respectively, with weekly changes of - 3.5bp, 0.9bp, - 2.2bp, - 2.5bp, and - 2.2bp. Their historical quantiles were 11.9%, 13.2%, 8.7%, 6.2%, and 3.9% respectively. Similar data for other bond types such as national development bonds, local government bonds, etc., are also presented in detail [14] Credit Spread and Its Changes for Each Maturity - The 0.5Y, 1Y, 2Y, 3Y, and 5Y credit spreads of local government bonds were -, 12.01bp, 13.93bp, 14.34bp, and 14.37bp respectively, with weekly changes of -, 0.1bp, 0.2bp, - 1.5bp, and - 2.8bp. Their historical quantiles were -, 44.9%, 43.7%, 45.1%, and 38.6% respectively. Similar data for other bond types are also provided [16] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Hermite Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - In terms of yields, from April 27th to April 30th, most provincial urban investment bond yields declined. For example, the 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond yield dropped by about 35bp. In terms of credit spreads, the 0.5 - 1Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly narrowed; the 2Y urban investment bond credit spreads mostly widened; the 3 - 5Y urban investment bond credit spreads showed differentiation, with the 3 - 5Y Guizhou urban investment bond credit spreads narrowing significantly [7] Industrial Bonds by Industry - From April 27th to April 30th, industrial bond yields generally declined. The 0.5 - 1Y industrial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, the 2 - 3Y industrial bond credit spreads showed differentiation, and the 5Y industrial bond credit spreads generally widened [7] Financial Bonds by Subject - From April 27th to April 30th, financial bond yields generally declined, with the 5Y city commercial bank second - tier capital bond yield dropping by about 55bp. The 0.5 - 1Y financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 2 - 5Y financial bond credit spreads showed differentiation [7] Credit Bond Yields and Spreads by Category (Balance Average Algorithm) Urban Investment Bonds by Region - Based on the balance average algorithm, from April 27th to April 30th, the 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond could target a return of over 3.2%, and the 5Y Qinghai urban investment bond could target a return of 3.0% or more. The 5Y Yunnan urban investment bond credit spread was significantly higher than that of medium - and short - term bonds, with high riding returns [8] Real Estate Private Enterprise Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the yields of real estate private enterprise bonds at all maturities were higher than those of other bond types, and the 0.5 - 1Y real estate private enterprise bond yields dropped by over 17bp [8] Financial Bonds - From April 27th to April 30th, the financial bond credit spreads generally narrowed, and the 3 - 5Y private securities company subordinated bonds could target a return of 4.7% or more [8]

Group 1: U.S. CPI and Tariff Impact - The U.S. CPI growth rate in March was lower than expected, indicating a cooling trend, with the impact of tariffs on inflation not yet significant [1] - Despite a 90-day tariff suspension announced by Trump, various tariff measures remain in effect, potentially raising the PCE deflator by approximately 1.2% this year [1] - The market's pricing of "stagnation" is considered adequate, while the pricing of "inflation" may be insufficient, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates up to two times this year [1] Group 2: Price Data and Tariff Effects - In March 2025, the CPI remained weak, aligning with market expectations, while the PPI was slightly below expectations, driven by falling international oil prices and weak domestic construction activity [2] - The additional tariffs on China have reached a rate of 20%, negatively impacting domestic exports and PPI, estimated to contribute a 0.13 percentage point decline in PPI [2] - The anticipated impact of U.S. tariffs on PPI could range from a 1.8% to 3.2% decline, while China's counter-tariffs may raise CPI by about 0.1 percentage points [2] Group 3: Banking and Financial Products - In March 2025, the issuance of bank wealth management products increased, with a total of 2,964 products launched [4] - The average annualized yield for pure debt and non-pure debt fixed-income products rose to 2.35% and 2.10%, respectively, reflecting a recovery from the previous month [4] - The total scale of bank wealth management products reached 29.32 trillion yuan, showing a seasonal decline but supported by improved product yields [4] Group 4: Tariff Policies and Economic Outlook - Trump's tariff policies are compared to historical protectionist measures, with expectations for negotiations on reciprocal tariffs to conclude in mid-2025, although U.S.-China trade talks may take longer [5] - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" has triggered a global risk-averse capital flow, leading to a significant drop in risk assets and a rally in safe-haven assets [6] - The bond market is expected to perform well, with dividend-paying assets becoming a core safe haven amid tariff-related uncertainties [6] Group 5: Consumer Finance ABS - The growth in consumer loans has led to a significant increase in the issuance of consumer finance ABS in early 2025, with improved asset quality and attractive yield spreads compared to non-financial credit bonds [7] - The focus is on the investment opportunities in consumer finance ABS, particularly in bank-affiliated consumer finance subsidiaries and state-owned enterprise trust products [7]

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, the national strategy to promote consumption upgrades has led to a year-on-year recovery in the growth rate of consumer loan balances, positively impacting the issuance and quality of consumer finance ABS [1][2]. Group 1: Importance of Consumer Finance ABS - The continuous push for consumption upgrades has resulted in increased consumer loan balances, which in turn has elevated the supply of consumer finance ABS. In contrast, the issuance and net financing scale of non-financial credit bonds have decreased compared to the first quarter of 2024 [2]. - The quality of underlying assets for consumer finance ABS has significantly improved, with no reported defaults or downgrades in 2024, indicating a stable investment environment [2]. - In 2025, the priority ABS is expected to offer better value compared to interest rate bonds and high-grade credit bonds, catering to low-risk preference investors such as banks and insurance funds [2]. Group 2: Current Status of Consumer Finance ABS - As of March 20, 2025, there are 437 outstanding consumer finance ABS with a total balance of approximately 392.8 billion yuan, accounting for about 12% of the total outstanding asset-backed securities [3]. - The distribution of underlying assets includes consumer loan ABS (371 cases), auto loan ABS (65 cases), and credit card installment loan ABS (1 case), with consumer loan ABS making up over half of the total balance [3]. Group 3: Product Design of Consumer Finance ABS - Consumer finance ABS features mechanisms such as credit triggers, revolving purchase settings, and special mechanisms to enhance asset efficiency and investor protection [4][5]. - The credit trigger mechanism includes provisions for subordinate securities to absorb losses first, ensuring the repayment of principal and interest to senior investors [4]. Group 4: Credit Risk Management of Consumer Finance ABS - The credit risk management measures at both the securities and underlying asset levels are robust, with subordinate securities designed to absorb potential losses effectively [6]. - The asset pool management includes a comprehensive risk management system throughout the loan lifecycle, from pre-loan assessments to post-loan monitoring [6]. Group 5: Investment Strategy Outlook for Consumer Finance ABS - The high proportion of private placements in outstanding consumer finance ABS indicates relatively lower liquidity in the secondary market, making it suitable for strategic allocations [7]. - The average yield for senior consumer finance ABS is 2.20%, while the middle-tier average yield is 2.67%, suggesting attractive investment opportunities in these segments [7].