马勇教授在会上发布了中国金融形势指数（CAFI）。该指数由财金学院庄毓敏院长领衔主持、由马勇 教授带领的团队研发，历经六年持续追踪与验证，通过货币、信贷、股票、债券、外汇和房地产六大子 市场指数，系统衡量中国金融整体形势。 CAFI指数能准确反映金融周期运行状况，并对GDP、CPI等关键宏观经济指标具有显著领先性。当前监 测表明，中国金融形势已逐步摆脱偏冷区间，呈现初步回暖态势，其中外汇市场和债券市场仍是主要制 约因素。 基于指数分析，报告预测货币政策保持宽松，建议金融市场有序引导增量资金入市，并抓住美联储降息 周期带来的机遇，扩大金融高质量开放，吸引国际耐心资本回流，为中国经济复苏提供新的动力。 全文如下： 中国金融形势分析报告（2025） 中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇 大湾区经济网讯，在2025年11月20日举行的中国金融形势指数专题发布会上，中国人民大学中国财政金 融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇发布并解读了中国金融形势指数（2025）最新分析报 告。该指数是在中国人民大学财政金融学院院长庄毓敏教授的亲自带领下，研究团队经过一年左右的系 统研发、一年左右 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference highlighted the gradual recovery of China's financial situation, as indicated by the China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) [1][2] - The CAFI, developed over six years, effectively reflects financial cycles and has predictive capabilities for key macroeconomic indicators like GDP and CPI [1][3][6] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: monetary, credit, stock, bond, exchange rate, and real estate [3][4] - The index uses a standardized scoring system ranging from -100 to +100, with specific ranges indicating varying states of financial health [4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the overall financial situation in China is showing signs of initial recovery, with the CAFI index at 3.88 (equal weight) and 3.34 (volatility inverse weight), both indicating a "mildly positive" state [10] - The monetary market index and credit situation index are both in a "mildly positive" state, while the bond market index is showing signs of being "slightly cold" [7][10] - The exchange rate pressure index is the lowest among the sub-indices, reflecting ongoing pressures from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, although recent rate cuts may alleviate some of this pressure [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The financial situation is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a likely sustained accommodative monetary policy to combat deflationary pressures [10][11] - Policies will focus on guiding incremental capital into financial markets, breaking the current standoff between stock and bond markets, and enhancing investor protection [11] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts present an opportunity for China to attract international capital, which could bolster the financial situation and support economic recovery [11]