Market Performance - US markets experienced their largest decline since the onset of the US-Israel conflict, with the Dow dropping 450 points, the S&P 500 decreasing by 1.7%, and the Nasdaq falling 2.3%, entering correction territory [1] Oil Prices - Oil prices have surged, with Brent crude reaching approximately $107 per barrel and US crude at $93 per barrel, while average US gas prices hit $3.98 per gallon [2] - Despite rising oil prices, President Trump indicated that they have not increased as much as anticipated, predicting a return to lower prices once the conflict concludes [2] Market Sentiment - Investor sentiment has been negatively affected by mixed messages from Trump regarding US negotiations with Iran, leading to market dips following his warnings to Iranian negotiators [3] - Trump later stated that "very substantial talks" were occurring with Iran, and noted that Iran allowed 10 oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, which he described as a "present" to the US [4] Economic Outlook - A report from the OECD forecasts US inflation to average 4.2% this year, up from an expected 2.6% in 2025, largely due to rising oil prices impacting the global economy [5] - Inflation across G20 countries is projected to be 1.2% higher on average, with significant implications for supply chains and prices, particularly for imported fertilizers [6]

Core Viewpoint - The ongoing conflict in Iran is raising investor concerns about a potential energy crisis, global recession, and the end of the current bull market, but historical patterns suggest that capital markets often recover quickly from such conflicts [1][2]. Market Reactions - The typical market response to conflicts follows a three-step pattern: initial volatility and rising oil prices, further volatility as markets assess worst-case scenarios, and then a stock rally as investors recognize the limited economic impact of the conflict [2]. - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 increased by 12.5% during Desert Storm and 31.9% in the following year, indicating that markets can rebound even amidst ongoing conflicts [3]. Oil Market Dynamics - The Gulf Coast's role as a production hub raises fears, but it only accounts for 3.5% of global GDP, and Iran's oil output was just 3% of global supply before the conflict [5]. - Shipping routes, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, are critical, with 20% of global oil flows passing through it; however, much of this oil is for processing rather than export, and alternative pipeline routes are already in place [8]. Historical Context - The current situation differs from the 1970s when the U.S. was heavily reliant on foreign oil; now, the U.S. is the world's top oil producer and has better relationships with most Middle Eastern exporters [9]. - In past regional conflicts, oil prices have shown a tendency to stabilize or decrease after initial spikes, with an average increase of 5% a month after conflict onset but a decrease of 4% after six months [10]. Economic Implications - Even if oil prices rise, historical trends indicate that economies and stock markets can thrive with higher oil prices, as seen in the early 2010s when economies grew with oil prices around $100 [11]. - The political landscape suggests that unresolved conflicts could impact midterm elections, potentially influencing market sentiment and investor behavior [12].

Market Overview - US stock markets experienced a significant decline, with all three major indices dropping over 1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by over 800 points, a decrease of 1.84%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 dropped by 1.33% and 1.51%, respectively [1][2]. Commodity Prices - Oil prices surged dramatically, with Brent crude rising over 5% to surpass $90 per barrel, and WTI crude increasing by over 8% to exceed $87 per barrel [3]. Geopolitical Events - US President Trump stated that no agreement would be reached with Iran unless it surrenders unconditionally, emphasizing a strong stance against Iran [5]. - The Israeli Defense Forces claimed to have targeted a senior Iranian official, with further details to be released later [5]. - The Iranian Revolutionary Guard announced the destruction of US missile defense systems in the Middle East using missiles and drones, targeting locations in the UAE, Jordan, and Qatar [5]. - Iran launched a significant missile attack, including the "Horramshahr-4" missile, aimed at US and Israeli targets in response to an attack on a school in Minab [6]. - Reports indicated that a tugboat was struck by an unidentified object in the Strait of Hormuz, with ongoing investigations [6]. - Qatar's energy minister announced a halt in LNG production, predicting that all Gulf energy exporters might stop oil and gas production within weeks [6]. Market Sentiment - The VIX index, a measure of market volatility, surged nearly 18%, indicating increased investor fear and uncertainty [7].

Core Viewpoint - The stock market experienced a decline, with the Dow falling 100 points, while oil prices showed slight fluctuations [1] Group 1: Stock Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average decreased by 100 points, equivalent to a 0.2% drop [1] - The S&P 500 index remained flat, showing no significant change [1] - The Nasdaq Composite index increased by 0.3%, indicating some resilience in tech stocks [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - WTI crude oil futures decreased by 0.1%, settling at $74.50 per barrel after reaching a low of $73.28 [1] - Brent crude oil futures increased by 0.4%, reaching $81.70 per barrel [1]

Core Viewpoint - The South Korean stock market experienced a historic drop, with the KOSPI index falling by 12.06%, marking the largest single-day decline ever recorded, surpassing the drop following the 9/11 attacks in 2001 [1] Group 1: Market Performance - The KOSPI index's increase for 2026 has narrowed from nearly 50% to 20%, following a 75% rise last year, which was the highest among major global markets [2] - The KOSDAQ index plummeted by 14%, also setting a record for the largest single-day decline [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The ongoing Middle East crisis has exposed vulnerabilities in the South Korean economy, particularly its reliance on exports and energy from the region, leading to concerns about forced liquidations in the market [2] - Foreign investors have been leading the sell-off, contributing to a significant depreciation of the Korean won, nearing the 1,500 won per dollar mark [4] Group 3: Government and Central Bank Response - The South Korean government is under scrutiny for potential market stabilization measures, with President Yoon Suk-yeol selling his apartment to encourage investment in the stock market [5] - The Bank of Korea has postponed its participation in an IMF meeting to assess the financial market's latest trends, indicating that volatility in exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices may persist depending on the geopolitical situation [6] - The Financial Services Commission held an emergency meeting to evaluate market conditions, attributing the volatility to rising geopolitical risks and profit-taking after previous market gains [6] Group 4: Regulatory Actions - The Financial Services Commission has emphasized a "zero tolerance" policy towards market manipulation and misinformation, with plans to activate a 100 trillion won market stabilization program if excessive volatility occurs [7]

U.S. stocks stumbled as oil prices jumped on the first trading day since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. On Feb. 28, the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in a campaign that killed the nation's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top officials and hit more than 1,000 targets inside the country, President Donald Trump said. Iran has retaliated with strikes against U.S. military bases, Israel and other nations in the Middle East. News of the strikes almost immediately pushe ...

Group 1 - Asia-Pacific markets are expected to gain following a tech-driven rally on Wall Street, alleviating concerns about artificial intelligence disrupting certain industries [1] - Australia's S&P/ASX 200 index rose by 0.76% in early trading [1] Group 2 - Japan's Nikkei 225 futures indicate a stronger market opening, with futures in Chicago at 58,140 and Osaka at 57,990, compared to the previous close of 57,321.09 [2] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures are at 26,763, higher than the last close of 26,590.32 [2] - Investors are anticipating U.S. President Donald Trump's State of the Union address later in the day [2]

Group 1 - The Indian stock market is experiencing its worst annual start in a decade, with the Bombay Stock Exchange index down nearly 4% year-to-date and the NIFTY index facing its worst opening since 2016 [1] - Approximately $360 billion in market capitalization has been wiped out from the Indian stock market in January alone, putting significant pressure on the Modi government ahead of the upcoming budget announcement [1] - Foreign investors continue to sell off Indian stocks due to high valuations, weak earnings, and geopolitical risks, following a record outflow of funds in 2025 [1] Group 2 - The Modi government plans to announce a series of domestic policy reforms in the upcoming budget to sustain rapid economic growth and enhance resilience against external shocks [2] - The economic growth rate for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2026, is projected to be 7.4%, but infrastructure spending and tax cuts have limited the government's fiscal space for supporting the economy in the new budget [2] - Uncertainties in trade negotiations between New Delhi and Washington have led to market volatility and a decline in the rupee to historical lows [2]

Core Viewpoint - The chairman of the Hong Kong Financial Development Council,洪丕正, highlighted the unprecedented challenges faced globally last year, prompting investors to reassess their portfolios and seek better asset allocation to mitigate risks from policy changes [1] Group 1: Role of Hong Kong - Hong Kong played a crucial role in assisting international investors to diversify investments from mature markets to emerging markets [1] - The city also helped mainland investors to allocate assets globally, showcasing its role as a bridge in the international financial landscape [1] Group 2: Financial Sector Performance - The financial services sector is vital to Hong Kong's economy, with unique advantages such as a highly internationalized market, robust regulatory framework, and close ties with mainland China [1] - The overall performance of Hong Kong's financial industry was strong last year, with significant growth observed in various sectors including the stock market, IPOs, banking, insurance, wealth management, and family offices [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Financial Development Council will continue to play its role by actively proposing forward-looking policy recommendations to ensure the competitiveness of Hong Kong's financial industry [1] - There is an ongoing effort to promote Hong Kong as the preferred financial platform to global investors and financial institutions [1]

Group 1 - European equity markets experienced a rally on Thursday, driven by investor optimism following President Trump's decision to reverse tariff threats against eight European countries [1]