转自：新华财经 新华财经约翰内斯堡1月8日电（白舸 杭泽波）据彭博社7日报道，受兰特走强及金属价格大幅上涨提振，南非股市市值升至2019年以来最高水平。数据显 示，富时／约翰内斯堡非洲全股指数成分股总市值6日突破5000亿美元，其市值规模已超过挪威、马来西亚和土耳其等市场。 2025年，约翰内斯堡股指表现强劲，全年上涨38%，创2005年以来最佳年度表现，其中贵金属及矿业股成为主要推动力量。同期，南非兰特兑美元升值 14%，使股指以美元计价的涨幅扩大至57%。 进入2026年，南非股市涨势仍在延续，指数年初以来已上涨逾2%。兰特随金价继续走强，本周二升至1美元兑16.31兰特，为三年多来最强水平。法国兴 业银行策略师指出，兰特下一目标区间或在16.10至15.90之间，这将继续支撑南非股票的美元回报。 分析人士认为，大宗商品价格，尤其是黄金的持续上涨，将为南非股市提供进一步支撑。 编辑：罗浩 ...

编辑丨金珊 受地缘紧张局势的升级影响， 5日早盘，黄金价格大涨。 截至9:30左右， 现货黄金涨1.63%，突破4400美元关口；COMEX黄金期货涨1.73%。现货白银大涨近4%，突破75美元关口。 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 4402.009 | 75.612 | 4404.5 | | +70.434 +1.63% | +2.793 +3.84% | +74.9 +1.73% | | COMEX白银 | SHFE黄金 | SHFE自银 | | 75.195 | 991.66 | 18010 | | +4.180 +5.89% | +10.44 +1.06% | -27 -0.15% | 国际油价由跌转涨振幅较大。 | W | | ICE布油 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | B.IPE | | | | | | 61.11 | 昨结 | | 60.75 | 总手 | 1.88万 | | | +0.36 | +0.59% 开盘 | | 60.99 | 现手 ...

Market Overview - Stock market indexes have experienced a slight decline following a strong year, with the Nasdaq up +21% year to date and other major indexes also showing double-digit gains [1] - The Chicago Business Barometer reported a +36.3% print, the lowest since May 2024, indicating ongoing economic challenges [6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. economy is currently averaging +2.5% GDP growth, slightly above the +2.4% seen throughout 2024, following a robust +4.3% in Q3 2025 [2] - The CPI Inflation Rate has decreased by 30 basis points to +2.7%, but analysts caution that this data may be revised upward due to potential tariff impacts on trade goods [3] Employment Situation - Weekly Jobless Claims show benign numbers, but new hires are down approximately -100K compared to last year, indicating a potential labor market issue [4] - The retirement boom is cooling, but the workforce is not adequately replenished, and recent graduates face high unemployment rates [4] Housing Market - Pending Home Sales for November increased by +3.3%, marking a positive shift after previous months of decline, while Case-Shiller Home Prices rose by +1.1% in October, reversing prior losses [5] Federal Reserve Insights - The minutes from the last FOMC meeting reveal differing opinions on interest rate adjustments, with some advocating for a -50bps cut while others support maintaining the current rate [7] - The market anticipates a pause in rate changes at the next FOMC meeting in late January, with significant focus on upcoming inflation and employment reports [8]

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为2960亿、400亿和401亿，净融资额为-473 亿、281亿和401亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模1356亿，净融资额250亿。非金信用债共计发 行规模2511亿，净融资额567亿。转债暂无新券发行。 二级市场回顾 债市情绪继续修复，中短端利率表现较好。主要影响因素包括：央行公开市场操作、买债降息预期、配 置盘机构行为。 流动性跟踪 央行重启14天逆回购，释放呵护跨年资金面信号。最终R001和R007分别较前周上行0.4BP和上行 0.7BP。 政策与基本面 11月经济数据再度低于预期，投资、消费表现偏弱。高频数据来看：生产端年末偏弱，需求端地产下行 出口回升，价格端食品分化、生产资料价格多数走强。 海外市场 美国11月非农数据仍显韧性但CPI超预期走弱。10年期美债收盘在4.16%，较前周下行3BP。 权益市场 上周A股指数大幅震荡，万得全A微跌0.15%，结构分化，商贸零售、基础化工等领涨，电子、电力设 备领跌。市场缺乏主线大板块机会，成交缩量，上周日均成交量1.76万亿，周度日均成交量减少1925.21 亿。截至 ...

围绕论坛投资主题，普京提出以下促进对俄投资的新举措：第一，进一步提升投资活力，加大对生产与 服务领域的投入，在工业、农业、基础设施等行业启动新项目。普京特别指出，近年来俄罗斯金融体系 成功实现了结构性调整，以内部融资替代了不可靠的外部来源，使实体经济部门的外债规模减少近半。 他表示，必须增强银行业对国内经济及各地区发展的支持力度，提高信贷资源在实际生产中的运用效率 与回报。与此同时，必须确保银行资金、利润以及公民与企业的储蓄不仅流向大都市与商业中心，也应 覆盖俄罗斯联邦所有区域。为此，各联邦主体已实施区域投资标准，并在地方层面设立发展机构，为投 资者提供土地审批、支持机制申请及基础设施配套等一站式服务。对于跨区域或规模较大的项目以及外 国投资，应从联邦层面更为有效地统筹和支持项目落地。 第二，增强股票市场作为投资资金来源的作用。截至今年年中，莫斯科证券交易所注册个人客户已超 3700万，约占全国经济活动人口的一半，其总资产规模超过11万亿卢布。就此，普京建议：其一，在债 务与基金份额投资增长的同时，应重视股权资本对长期发展的重要性。建议政府近期制定国有参股公司 首次及二次股票发行计划，并责成相关部门拟定推动大 ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong government aims to enhance its commodity market by leveraging global asset value reassessment and increasing interest in precious metals [1] - Hong Kong's financial market strengths are primarily in stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, with a noted lack of emphasis on the commodity market [1] - The establishment of a gold central clearing system and collaboration with the Shanghai Gold Exchange are key initiatives to boost Hong Kong's precious metals market [1] Group 2 - The London Metal Exchange has approved Hong Kong as a delivery location, increasing the number of approved warehouses to 12 within nine months, with over 8,000 tons of non-ferrous metals stored [1] - This development is expected to benefit the real economy by reducing logistics costs for businesses using warehouses in Hong Kong [1] - Future plans include expanding the commodity market beyond precious metals and offering tax exemptions for goods traded through shipping to Hong Kong [1] Group 3 - Hong Kong is recognized as a prominent green financing center, particularly for bond issuance, with sustainable bond issuance projected to exceed $43 billion in 2024 [2] - The city attracts investors interested in green finance and provides issuers with opportunities to promote local economic plans, which is crucial for future investment attraction [2] - The goal is to develop Hong Kong as a "one-stop" platform to meet international investors' needs for accessing the mainland market [2]

The stock market bounced back on Tuesday as Wall Street bought the dip in Bitcoin and other riskier assets.The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 185 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was up 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.6%.Traders have been paying close attention to the price of Bitcoin, which rebounded sharply to move back above the $90,000 level on Tuesday. ...

Core Insights - The China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) indicates a gradual recovery in China's financial landscape, moving away from a cold phase, although the foreign exchange and bond markets remain constraints [1][10] - The report suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy and leveraging the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to attract international capital back to China, providing new momentum for economic recovery [1][10] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: Money Supply Index (MSI), Credit Situation Index (CSI), Stock Market Index (SSI), Bond Market Index (BSI), Exchange Rate Pressure Index (EPI), and Real Estate Situation Index (RSI) [3][4] - The index is designed to provide a quantifiable assessment of China's overall financial situation, reflecting the operational status and structural changes within the financial system [3][4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the MSI and CSI are in a moderately positive state, indicating a mild recovery in the banking credit market [7][8] - The SSI is also in a positive state, while the BSI shows a slight cooling, reflecting a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets [7][8] - The EPI is currently the lowest among the indices, indicating moderate cooling, primarily due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The CAFI index for Q3 2025 shows signs of recovery, with values indicating a shift from a moderately cold state to a warming trend, although the recovery is not yet solidified [10] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to support economic recovery and counter deflationary pressures, while credit policies will focus on key economic areas [10][11] - The opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle presents an opportunity to alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate and attract international capital, which could be crucial for the financial situation's improvement [11]

Core Insights - Foreign investors have withdrawn over $17 billion from the Indian stock market this year, marking a significant decline compared to a net inflow of $20 billion in 2023, making India the worst-performing market in Asia for foreign investment outflows [1][2][3] - The withdrawal trend is primarily driven by external factors such as the strong dollar and internal factors including high stock market valuations and disappointing corporate earnings growth [3][4] Group 1: Foreign Investment Trends - The report indicates that since July, the largest withdrawals have come from U.S. funds ($1 billion), followed by Luxembourg ($765 million) and Japan ($365 million), reflecting a broader trend of investor retreat [2] - India's allocation in global emerging market funds has dropped to 16.7%, the lowest since November 2023, while China's share has surged to 28.8%, indicating a shift in investor preferences [2] Group 2: Economic and Policy Factors - Concerns over the profitability of export-oriented sectors and macroeconomic outlook have accelerated foreign capital outflows, exacerbated by U.S. tariffs that impact investment flows and economic growth [3][4] - Changes in U.S. immigration policy regarding H-1B visas have significantly affected Indian software and service outsourcing companies, leading to increased costs and project delays, which are critical for this export sector [3] Group 3: Market Performance and Sentiment - The MSCI index forecasts a mere 5% profit growth for Indian companies by 2025, down from 8% the previous year, indicating ongoing weakness in corporate earnings [4] - The Indian rupee has depreciated over 3.7% against the dollar since 2025, diminishing the attractiveness of local assets and contributing to market pressures [4] - The Nifty 50 index has underperformed compared to regional indices for five consecutive months, marking the longest such period since 2013 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The likelihood of a US-China trade agreement by October 30 appears low, despite recent developments indicating a shift in trade relations that could benefit global trade terms and export-dependent economies [1][3]. Economic Backdrop: China's Domestic Challenges - Recent trade data shows a rebound in external demand for China, with exports increasing by 8.3% year-on-year in September, up from 4.4% in August, and industrial profits rising by 21.6% year-on-year, compared to 20.4% in August [4]. - However, overcapacity and excess supply in sectors like electric vehicles, lithium batteries, and solar panels are causing deflationary pressures, leading to price cuts and market flooding [5]. Trade Deal Implications - A potential US-China trade deal that includes lower or zero tariffs on Chinese goods could help rebalance trade dynamics, with strong US demand being crucial for improving profit margins and domestic consumption in China [6]. - The ambition of the Chinese government to maintain export dominance while transitioning to a consumption-led economy is referred to as "dual circulation" [6]. Policy Signals: Stimulus Push - Calls for a significant infrastructure investment push have been made to revive domestic demand, with suggestions that infrastructure projects could raise household incomes and shift growth focus from exports to internal demand [9]. Market Reactions - Mainland equity markets experienced selling pressure ahead of the anticipated Trump-Xi meeting, with the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices declining slightly, although optimism regarding a potential trade deal remains [10]. - A successful trade deal could propel the CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite indices towards their previous all-time highs, set in 2021 and 2015 respectively [11].