马勇教授在会上发布了中国金融形势指数（CAFI）。该指数由财金学院庄毓敏院长领衔主持、由马勇 教授带领的团队研发，历经六年持续追踪与验证，通过货币、信贷、股票、债券、外汇和房地产六大子 市场指数，系统衡量中国金融整体形势。 CAFI指数能准确反映金融周期运行状况，并对GDP、CPI等关键宏观经济指标具有显著领先性。当前监 测表明，中国金融形势已逐步摆脱偏冷区间，呈现初步回暖态势，其中外汇市场和债券市场仍是主要制 约因素。 基于指数分析，报告预测货币政策保持宽松，建议金融市场有序引导增量资金入市，并抓住美联储降息 周期带来的机遇，扩大金融高质量开放，吸引国际耐心资本回流，为中国经济复苏提供新的动力。 全文如下： 中国金融形势分析报告（2025） 中国人民大学中国财政金融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇 大湾区经济网讯，在2025年11月20日举行的中国金融形势指数专题发布会上，中国人民大学中国财政金 融政策研究中心主任、国家金融研究员副院长马勇发布并解读了中国金融形势指数（2025）最新分析报 告。该指数是在中国人民大学财政金融学院院长庄毓敏教授的亲自带领下，研究团队经过一年左右的系 统研发、一年左右 ...

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference highlighted the gradual recovery of China's financial situation, as indicated by the China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) [1][2] - The CAFI, developed over six years, effectively reflects financial cycles and has predictive capabilities for key macroeconomic indicators like GDP and CPI [1][3][6] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: monetary, credit, stock, bond, exchange rate, and real estate [3][4] - The index uses a standardized scoring system ranging from -100 to +100, with specific ranges indicating varying states of financial health [4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the overall financial situation in China is showing signs of initial recovery, with the CAFI index at 3.88 (equal weight) and 3.34 (volatility inverse weight), both indicating a "mildly positive" state [10] - The monetary market index and credit situation index are both in a "mildly positive" state, while the bond market index is showing signs of being "slightly cold" [7][10] - The exchange rate pressure index is the lowest among the sub-indices, reflecting ongoing pressures from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, although recent rate cuts may alleviate some of this pressure [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The financial situation is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a likely sustained accommodative monetary policy to combat deflationary pressures [10][11] - Policies will focus on guiding incremental capital into financial markets, breaking the current standoff between stock and bond markets, and enhancing investor protection [11] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts present an opportunity for China to attract international capital, which could bolster the financial situation and support economic recovery [11]

11 月 18 日 来源：市场资讯 澳洲联储公布 11 月货币政策会议纪要（08:30） （来源：吴说） 编译：GaryMa 吴说区块链 摘要 吴说本周宏观指标与分析：上周美国政府正式结束 43 天史上最长停摆，期间大量经济数据缺失，导致 CPI 等数据无法发布，另外日本央行 10 月会议摘要暗示最早或于 12 月加息；本周重点关注周四相关数 据动态，美国政府重启，非农等经济数据将发布、英伟达公布财报以及美联储公布货币政策会议纪要 等。 上周回顾中国 10 月 M2 货币供应年率 10.5%，预测值 10.9%。日本央行 10 月会议摘要暗示：最早或于 12 月加息。美国政府正式结束 43 天史上最长停摆，期间大量经济数据缺失，CPI 等数据无法发布。本 周重点事件 & 指标 11 月 20 日美联储公布货币政策会议纪要（03:00）英伟达将于盘后公布财报（05:00）美国 9 月失业率 （21:30）美国 9 月季调后非农就业人口(万人)（21:30）美国至 11 月 15 日当周初请失业金人数(万人) （21:30） 11 月 21 日英发德欧元区等多国 11 月制造业 PMI 初值美国 11 月密歇根大 ...

本文字数：3501，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 祝嫣然 工业增速或高位放缓 参与第一财经首席调研的经济学家对10月工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.7%，低于上月6.5%的公布数据。 从先行指标来看，受"十一"假期前部分需求提前释放及国际环境更趋复杂等因素影响，制造业PMI在连续2个月上升之后再次出现回落。10月份制造业采 购经理指数（PMI）为49.0%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气水平有所回落。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群分析，10月份制造业PMI指数在荣枯线下回落，且多数分项指数均有回落且位于荣枯线之下。市场引导的需求收 缩继续发展，宏观经济总量供大于求的失衡继续发展，需求不足对企业生产投资的制约更为明显，经济下行压力有所加大。 北京大学国民经济研究中心发布的报告显示，尽管制造业景气收缩、房地产低迷以及出口不确定性加剧，但货币政策宽松、高科技制造业支撑和基数效应 有利，预计10月规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%，较上期下降0.5个百分点。 中国银河证券首席经济学家章俊表示，10月工业增加值增速预计为5.5%，小幅回落但继续保持强劲态势。生产端高频数据保持较高水平，钢材方面高 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstart reported a total revenue of approximately $277 million for Q3 2025, representing a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, reflecting strong performance on net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The average loan size decreased by 12% from the prior quarter to approximately $6,670, influenced by borrowers requesting lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across Upstart's platform reached approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, with around 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for nearly 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing approximately 300% year-on-year [8][9] - The auto retail business saw transaction volume grow more than 70% sequentially, with significant improvements in software and expansion into four new states [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand for Upstart's services continued to grow, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, a 30% increase from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [6] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest increase in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Upstart aims to leverage AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [5] - The company is transitioning several new products from R&D to scale-up phases, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [27] - Upstart is committed to maintaining credit performance while achieving transaction volume targets, emphasizing the importance of precise risk pricing [8][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of consumer credit, noting no material deterioration and signs of improvement [8] - The company anticipates a favorable economic backdrop for credit, with expectations of improved consumer financial health and lower investor return requirements due to potential rate cuts [30] - Upstart plans to moderate take rates to increase origination volumes and repeat transactions, aiming for a strong finish to 2025 and a promising 2026 [30][31] Other Important Information - Upstart's contribution margin for Q3 was 57%, slightly down from the previous quarter due to lower conversion rates impacting acquisition costs [25] - The company ended Q3 with approximately $1.2 billion in loans held directly on its balance sheet, up from just over $1 billion in Q2 [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - Dan Dolev inquired about the strong application demand and how it aligns with the guidance provided, which was below expectations. Management noted that while applications grew significantly, the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume [34][35] Question: Impact of recent auto industry events - Kyle Peterson asked if recent negative credit events in the auto sector affected Upstart's expansion plans. Management confirmed no direct impact but acknowledged increased diligence in underwriting [39][40] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - Peter Christiansen questioned the quality of leads following marketing enhancements. Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism affected conversion rates [45][46] Question: Repayment speeds and credit implications - Mihir Bhatia asked about the increase in repayment speeds and its implications. Management suggested that faster repayments could indicate improving consumer health but may lead to reduced interest income in the short term [72][74] Question: Conversion rate drivers - Reggie Smith inquired about the factors affecting the conversion rate. Management clarified that the primary driver was the model's conservatism, which influenced approval rates and loan sizes [63][79]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q3 2025, total revenue reached approximately $277 million, reflecting a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, driven by strong net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The contribution margin was 57%, down approximately one percentage point from the prior quarter due to lower conversion rates impacting acquisition costs [25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across the platform was approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, representing around 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for nearly 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing around 300% year-on-year [8][9] - The average loan size decreased to approximately $6,670, a 12% decline from the prior quarter, influenced by borrower requests for lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand remained strong, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, a 30% increase from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [6] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest increase in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [7][8] - Despite macroeconomic caution, there were no signs of material deterioration in consumer credit strength, with indications of improvement noted [8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to leverage AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [5] - Upstart is expanding its auto retail business, having doubled the number of lending rooftops and achieved over 70% sequential growth in transaction volume [9] - The company is also working on a hybrid product called an auto-secured personal loan, which is gaining traction [9] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate the macroeconomic environment, emphasizing the importance of precise risk pricing [8] - The outlook for Q4 includes expected total revenues of approximately $288 million, with a focus on maintaining profitability and managing costs effectively [31] - Management anticipates that improvements in repayment speeds could lead to a long-anticipated tailwind for growth prospects heading into next year [23] Other Important Information - The company has added seven new bank and credit union partners in Q3, achieving a new all-time high in monthly available funding [10] - Upstart's platform has generated over $50 billion in AI-powered loans since inception, showcasing the strength of its AI capabilities [12] - The company is focused on reducing R&D-related balance sheet holdings and transitioning new products into the scale-up phase [26][27] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - A participant inquired about the strong application demand and how it aligns with the guidance provided, which was below expectations. Management noted that while applications grew significantly, the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume [34][35] Question: Impact of recent credit events in the auto sector - Another participant asked if recent negative credit events in the auto sector affected expansion plans. Management confirmed that there was no direct impact, although increased diligence was observed in the market [39][40] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - A question was raised regarding the quality of leads generated from new marketing capabilities. Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism led to a lower conversion rate [46][48] Question: Repayment speeds and credit implications - A participant asked about the increase in repayment speeds and its implications for credit performance. Management suggested that faster repayments could indicate improving consumer health, although it may lead to lower interest income in the short term [72][74] Question: Conversion rate drivers - A question was posed about the factors affecting the conversion rate. Management clarified that the primary driver was the model's conservatism, which impacted approvals and loan sizes [64][65] Question: HELOC product economics - A participant inquired about the economics of the HELOC product. Management indicated that while take rates would be healthy, they would be more modest compared to personal loans, but with larger loan sizes [82]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Stock Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model is based on the comprehensive judgment of economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - **Construction Process**: - Construct timing factors from two core dimensions: economic growth and liquidity easing[18] - Factors include PMI YoY smoothed value, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount cumulative YoY, CPI YoY smoothed value, and new medium and long-term loans cumulative value YoY[19] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using CSI 800 total return as the benchmark[19] - **Evaluation**: The model effectively captures stock market cycles, avoiding downturns[21] 2. Model Name: Bond Timing Model - **Construction Idea**: The model analyzes from the perspective of monetary liquidity supply and demand[23] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include DR007, SHIBOR, and social financing scale stock YoY smoothed value[24] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if short-term average < long-term average} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using ChinaBond Treasury Total Net Price Index as the benchmark[24] - **Evaluation**: The model captures bond market trends, minimizing drawdowns[25] 3. Model Name: All-Weather Strategy - **Construction Idea**: The model adjusts risk budgets for different assets based on timing signals[17] - **Construction Process**: - Use a risk parity model to allocate risk contributions of assets[30] - Adjust risk budgets based on stock and bond timing signals[32] - Optimize the model: $$ \begin{array}{c} \min \sum_{i=1}^{N} \left( RC_i - b_i \sigma_p \right)^2 \\ \text{s.t.} \sum_{i=1}^{N} \omega_i = 1 \\ 0 \leq \omega_i \leq 1 \end{array} $$ - Backtest using a combination of CSI 800, ChinaBond Treasury Total Wealth Index, CSI Convertible Bond Index, S&P 500 ETF, and AAA Credit Bonds[31] - **Evaluation**: The strategy provides higher absolute returns while controlling risk[38] Model Backtest Results Stock Timing Model - Annualized Return: 14.1%[21] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.4%[21] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.7%[21] - Monthly Win Rate: 56.7%[21] Bond Timing Model - Annualized Return: 2.3%[25] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.1%[25] - Monthly Win Rate: 68.3%[25] All-Weather Strategy - Annualized Return: 6.1%[38] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 5.1%[38] - Excess Annualized Return: 1.0%[38] - Maximum Drawdown: 2.6%[38] - Sharpe Ratio: 2.04[38] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value-Growth Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic recovery, liquidity, and market sentiment[47] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, M2 YoY smoothed value, social financing YoY smoothed value, medium and long-term loan growth YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[48] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the National Growth Index and National Value Index[48] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of value and growth styles[47] 2. Factor Name: Size Rotation Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on economic prosperity, liquidity, and market sentiment[55] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, PPI YoY smoothed value, gold daily return rate, government bond yield, credit spread, M1 YoY smoothed value, market turnover rate, and margin balance percentile[56] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using the CSI 300 Index and CSI 1000 Index[57] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the cyclical characteristics of large-cap and small-cap styles[55] Factor Backtest Results Value-Growth Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[51] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 1.7%[51] - Excess Annualized Return: 7.5%[51] - Monthly Win Rate: 60.2%[51] Size Rotation Factor - Annualized Return: 9.2%[59] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 0.1%[59] - Excess Annualized Return: 9.0%[59] - Monthly Win Rate: 58.3%[59] Industry Rotation Solution 1. Factor Name: Macro Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on the second-order changes in economic growth and liquidity[67] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include PMI, social financing scale, manufacturing fixed asset investment completion amount, CPI, M2 growth rate, 10-year government bond yield, and credit spread[70] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[73] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the marginal inflection points of macro trends[67] 2. Factor Name: Fundamental Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations[79] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry component stock median, industry profitability, and industry consensus profit expectations[79] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[82] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the core of industry prosperity[79] 3. Factor Name: Technical Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns[87] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry index relative excess return IR, leading stock sharp ratio, and K-line pattern score[89] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[96] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the technical evaluation of industry trends[87] 4. Factor Name: Crowding Factor - **Construction Idea**: The factor is based on financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction proportion[100] - **Construction Process**: - Factors include industry financing buy amount, industry turnover rate, and industry transaction amount proportion[101] - Use the formula: $$ \text{Factor} = \begin{cases} 1 & \text{if indicator improves} \\ 0 & \text{otherwise} \end{cases} $$ - Backtest using industry indices[104] - **Evaluation**: The factor captures the crowding level of industries[100] Industry Rotation Backtest Results Macro Factor - Annualized Return: 42.9%[73] - Benchmark Annualized Return: -22.8%[73] - Excess Annualized Return: 65.7%[73] Fundamental Factor - Annualized Return: 11.3%[85] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[85] - Excess Annualized Return: 8.5%[85] - IC Mean: 8.2%[85] Technical Factor - Annualized Return: 9.7%[97] - Benchmark Annualized Return: 2.8%[97] - Excess Annualized Return: 6.9%[97] - IC Mean: 8.2%[97] Crowding Factor - Annualized Return: -2.9

市场销售稳步增长，制造业投资较快增长，货物进出口持续增长。前三季度，社会消费品零售总额365877亿 元，同比增长4.5%；制造业投资同比增长4.0%；货物进出口总额336078亿元，同比增长4.0%。 国家统计局20日发布数据显示，初步核算，前三季度中国国内生产总值（GDP）1015036亿元，按不变价格计 算，同比增长5.2%。 分季度看，一季度GDP同比增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。 农业生产形势较好，工业生产较快增长，服务业平稳增长。前三季度，农业（种植业）增加值同比增长 3.6%，全国夏粮早稻产量比上年增加19万吨，秋粮生产总体稳定，全年粮食有望再获丰收；全国规模以上工 业增加值同比增长6.2%；服务业增加值同比增长5.4%。 核心CPI连续回升，就业形势总体稳定，居民收入平稳增长。前三季度，全国居民消费价格指数（CPI）同比 下降0.1%，扣除食品和能源价格后的核心CPI同比上涨0.6%，涨幅比上半年扩大0.2个百分点；全国城镇调查 失业率平均值为5.2%；全国居民人均可支配收入32509元，同比名义增长5.1%，扣除价格因素实际增长 5.2%。 "总的来看，前三季度稳就业 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The bond market sentiment is fragile. The recovery of risk appetite suppresses the bond market. Meanwhile, the expectation of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the increasing global trade uncertainty add to the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market fluctuates between the expectations of stable growth and monetary easing. Short - term attention should be paid to policy signals at the end of the month [3]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 0.40% year - on - year change; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.00% month - on - month change and a - 2.90% year - on - year change [9]. - Social financing scale is 433.66 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.40 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.56%; M2 year - on - year is 8.80%, with no month - on - month change; manufacturing PMI is 49.40%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a growth rate of 0.20% [10]. - The US dollar index is 98.48, with a day - on - day increase of 0.63 and a growth rate of 0.64%; the offshore US dollar against the Chinese yuan is 7.1292, with a day - on - day increase of 0.010 and a growth rate of 0.14%; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.58, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.01 and a decline rate of 0.38%; DR007 is 1.60, with a day - on - day increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 0.96%; R007 is 1.51, with a day - on - day decrease of 0.05 and a decline rate of 3.26%; the yield of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) for 3 months is 1.61, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with a day - on - day increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.12% [11]. 2. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market The report provides multiple figures about the treasury bond futures market, including the closing price trend, price change rate, precipitation of funds, position ratio, net position ratio, long - short position ratio, spread between national development bonds and treasury bonds, and treasury bond issuance [15][17][19]. 3. Overview of the Money Market Fundamentals It provides figures on bank - to - bank pledged repurchase transaction statistics and local government bond issuance [29]. 4. Spread Overview It includes figures on Shibor interest rate trends, yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit (AAA) at maturity, cross - period spreads of treasury bond futures, and spreads between spot bond term spreads and futures cross - variety spreads [32][35]. 5. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the two - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TS main contract [52][55]. 6. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied interest rate and treasury bond yield of the five - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TF main contract [57][61]. 7. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures The report provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the T main contract [64][66]. 8. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures It provides figures on the implied yield and treasury bond yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures main contract, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis and net basis trends of the TL main contract [71][77]. Strategy - Unilateral: As the repurchase rate rises, the price of treasury bond futures fluctuates [4]. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the decline of the 2512 basis [4]. - Hedging: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [4].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical risks dominate the rebound of oil prices, and the value of call options to protect short positions remains. Precious metals have an unchanged medium - term upward trend but increased short - term volatility. The copper market is still vigilant about macro - economic fluctuations and actual consumption. Most commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and policy changes, showing different trends including upward, downward, and range - bound oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the Brent 11 - contract up 1.89%. Last week's decline in US EIA inventories and geopolitical risks supported the market. Short - term geopolitical risks drive the price rebound [2] - **Precious Metals**: Overnight, precious metals oscillated and declined. Powell's speech and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts led to increased short - term volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [3] - **Copper**: Overnight, LME copper hit a new high this year. The global second - largest copper mine Grasberg declared force majeure, reducing the 2026 production target. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through, but attention should be paid to capital allocation and macro - economic indicators [4] - **Aluminum**: Overnight, the rise in copper prices drove non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. In September, aluminum's apparent consumption was below expectations, and there was limited upward momentum [5] - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the fluctuations of SHFE aluminum. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax policy adjustment expectations may make it more resilient [6] - **Alumina**: The operating capacity reached a new high, and the inventory continued to rise. Supply is in excess, and the price is weakly running, with support around 2800 yuan [7] - **Zinc**: The internal and external markets diverged. The zinc ingot export window is close to opening, but the export volume is expected to be limited. Domestic consumption is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [8] - **Lead**: The profit of secondary lead is recovering, and the restocking demand before the festival is approaching the end. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, oscillating between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [9] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: SHFE nickel oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The short - term macro - favorable factors have been exhausted, and nickel prices are expected to decline [10] - **Tin**: Overnight, tin prices oscillated. There are supply - side themes, but the market is still concerned about consumption. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [11] Energy and Chemicals - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Overnight, the fuel oil market continued to rise, driven by geopolitical news. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts may push up prices, but in the medium term, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to be loose [22] - **Asphalt**: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The 10 - month production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The inventory level decreased. The supply - demand balance pattern continues, and there is support below [23] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The refinery's self - use of LPG increased, and the import was affected by typhoons. The demand increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [24] - **Urea**: The urea futures price rose yesterday. Agricultural sales improved slightly, but supply still exceeded demand, and the inventory continued to accumulate [25] - **Methanol**: The main methanol contract stopped falling and stabilized. The port inventory decreased, and the pre - festival restocking demand provided support, but high - inventory expectations limited the upside [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The futures price continued to rebound, driven by the rise in oil prices. The weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the port inventory declined, but the high - import expectation and poor downstream profits were negative factors [27] - **Benzene Ethylene**: The market supply is abundant, and the downstream purchases on demand, with poor trading atmosphere [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: The propylene supply is increasing, and the market trading improved slightly. The polyethylene inventory accumulated, and the price was under pressure. The polypropylene supply is still loose, and the spot market lacks strong support [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is large. Caustic soda is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the futures price may oscillate [30] - **PX & PTA**: The strong expectation of PX weakened, and the valuation declined. The PTA profit is still poor, and the downstream has restocking expectations before the festival [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price continued to fall, and the new - device production impact was digested. The short - term oil price provides upward momentum, but the expectation is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: The short - fiber inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The bottle chip was affected by the typhoon, and the long - term over - capacity is a pressure [33] - **Glass**: The glass futures price rose significantly due to industry meetings and price - increase plans. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but it may return to a weak state if capacity reduction doesn't materialize [34] - **Soda Ash**: It followed the rise of glass. The long - term supply is in excess, and it's advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [36] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The soybean meal market should be observed. The short - term negative factors may end, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view [37] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The mid - term soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. The supply of palm oil has a driving force in the fourth - quarter. Protective call strategies can be considered to hedge risks [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed - related futures prices are still under short - term pressure. The oil - meal ratio may be boosted in autumn and winter [39] - **Soybean No. 1**: The domestic soybean price rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans [40] - **Corn**: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day due to new - grain supply and weak downstream demand [41] - **Live Pig**: The live - pig futures price is bearish. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and the government's support policy [42] - **Egg**: The egg futures adjusted weakly. The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term contracts can be considered for long positions [43] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price oscillated. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand support is limited. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines after the breakdown [44] - **Sugar**: The US sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar production expectation for the next season is relatively good [45] - **Apple**: The apple futures price oscillated downward. The expected high inventory in the new season is a negative factor [46] - **Timber**: The futures price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand in the peak season is weak, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [47] - **Pulp**: The pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade in a range [48] Others - **Stock Index**: The A - share market may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It's advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Tech Index [48] - **Treasury Bond**: The treasury - bond futures prices fell, and the yield curve may steepen. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF operations [49]