分析人士认为，埃及政府通过扩大私营部门参与、改善投资环境、提升贸易效率、收紧财政和货币政策 等措施，推动了包括国际储备在内的一系列宏观经济指标显著改善。 埃及自2024年3月6日采取灵活汇率政策以来，净国际储备从2024年4月开始触底反弹，截至2025年12月 增长了近25.5%。 新华财经开罗1月6日电（记者张健）埃及中央银行6日发布报告显示，埃及的净国际储备在2025年12月 保持上升趋势，达到514亿美元，创历史新高。 2025年12月份比11月份增长了12.35亿美元。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

国债期货日报 | 2025-12-23 LPR保持，国债期货全线收跌 资金面：（3）财政：11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压 力不大，财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上 更加向民生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债 发行提速带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短 期对经济形成一定支撑，但更强拉动仍有赖于准财政资金和明年政策加码的进一步落地。（4）金融：11月金融数 据整体偏弱，信贷仍由票据与短贷支撑，居民和企业中长期融资需求继续走低，贷款同比大幅少增。社融增速虽 维持在8.5%，但主要由企业债券和表外融资对冲政府债与贷款的走弱，反映私人部门加杠杆意愿依旧不足。M1、 M2增速同步下滑，活期存款下降更快，显示实体部门资金周转与经济活力偏弱。在需求走弱与政策宽松预期并存 背景下，后续稳增长仍更依赖货币侧发力。（5）央行：2025-12-22，央行以固定利率1.4%、数量招标方式开展了673 亿元7天的逆回 ...

从宏观预期到权益配置思路 - 普林格周期资产配置的拓展 20251221 摘要 当前（2025 年），我们判断自今年 1 月起已进入复苏末期，并持续至今。预 计下一阶段将是商品上涨带来的过热期，这可能发生在 2026 年下半年或之后。 在这一过程中，股票涨幅可能放缓，但并不完全结束，而是逐步走平，同时通 胀开始上升。 如何利用宏观数据补充普林格周期模型，并确保其准确性？ 为了补充普林格周期模型，我们引入了一些关键的宏观经济指标，包括 PMI、PPI、M1 和 M2。这些指标经过客观筛选，通过分析过去 20 年的表现确 定其相关性，并最终选出对股市有显著影响的指标。这些指标帮助确认当前经 济趋势，为我们的决策提供支持。 具体而言，我们使用这些指标计算 12 个月 滚动 z-score，以评估当前数据在过去 12 个月中的相对位置。例如，目前 PPI 处于中间水平，而 M1 和 M2 有所提升，因此当前宏观趋势信号偏积极。从 2025 年 1 月开始，这一信号与普林格周期形成共振，共同支持积极的市场预 判。 为了避免短期波动对模型结果产生不利影响，我们引入了防跳跃规则，即 设置阈值以减少频繁变化。例如，从谨慎变为 ...

2025年1至11月 主要经济指标数据 （责任编辑：王治强 HF013） 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 消费 456067亿元 4.0% 1至11月,社会消费品零售总额456067 亿元,同比增长4.0% 投资 444035亿元 2.6% 1至11月,全国固定资产投资(不含农 户) 444035亿元,同比下降2.6%;扣除 房地产开发投资,全国固定资产投资增长 0.8% 进出口 412076亿元 3.6% 1至11月,货物进出口总额412076亿 元,同比增长3.6%。其中,出口244579 亿元,增长6.2%;进口167498亿元,增 长0.2% 失业率 5.2% 1至11月,全国城镇调查失业率平均值为 5.2% 物价 国家统计局12月15日发布2025年11月份 国民经济运行情况。各地区各部门深入 实施更加积极有为的宏观政策,纵深推 进全国统一大市场建设,着力推动高质 量发展,生产供给基本平稳,就业形势 总体稳定,市场价格继续改善,新质生 产力稳步发展,经济运行延续总体平 稳、稳中有进 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 本周热点前瞻 2025-12-15 陶金峰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 声明 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬 请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构成具体业务或 产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行作出投资决定并自主 承担投资风险，不应凭借本报告进行具体操作。 【本周重点关注】 12 月 15 日 10:00，国务院新闻办公室将召开国民经济运行情况新闻发布会，并将公布 11 月工业和能源生 产、固定资产投资、房地产开发投资和销售、社会消费品零售总额等指标数据。 重点关注国内宏观政策变化、国际地缘政治局势、美国总统特朗普和美联储官员讲话等因素对于期货市场的 影响。 【本周热点前瞻】 12月15日 中国70个大中城市住宅销售价格月度报告 点评：12月15日09:30，国家统计局将发布70个大中城市住宅销售价格11月月度报告。 国民经济运行情况新闻发布会 点评：12月15日 ...

Core Insights - The China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) indicates a gradual recovery in China's financial landscape, moving away from a cold phase, although the foreign exchange and bond markets remain constraints [1][10] - The report suggests maintaining a loose monetary policy and leveraging the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts to attract international capital back to China, providing new momentum for economic recovery [1][10] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: Money Supply Index (MSI), Credit Situation Index (CSI), Stock Market Index (SSI), Bond Market Index (BSI), Exchange Rate Pressure Index (EPI), and Real Estate Situation Index (RSI) [3][4] - The index is designed to provide a quantifiable assessment of China's overall financial situation, reflecting the operational status and structural changes within the financial system [3][4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the MSI and CSI are in a moderately positive state, indicating a mild recovery in the banking credit market [7][8] - The SSI is also in a positive state, while the BSI shows a slight cooling, reflecting a "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets [7][8] - The EPI is currently the lowest among the indices, indicating moderate cooling, primarily due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The CAFI index for Q3 2025 shows signs of recovery, with values indicating a shift from a moderately cold state to a warming trend, although the recovery is not yet solidified [10] - Monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose to support economic recovery and counter deflationary pressures, while credit policies will focus on key economic areas [10][11] - The opening of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle presents an opportunity to alleviate pressure on the RMB exchange rate and attract international capital, which could be crucial for the financial situation's improvement [11]

Core Insights - The 2025 Shenzhen International Financial Conference highlighted the gradual recovery of China's financial situation, as indicated by the China Financial Situation Index (CAFI) [1][2] - The CAFI, developed over six years, effectively reflects financial cycles and has predictive capabilities for key macroeconomic indicators like GDP and CPI [1][3][6] Index Construction Methodology - The CAFI is based on the intrinsic relationship between financial activities and the real economy, comprising six sub-market indices: monetary, credit, stock, bond, exchange rate, and real estate [3][4] - The index uses a standardized scoring system ranging from -100 to +100, with specific ranges indicating varying states of financial health [4] Current Financial Situation Analysis - As of Q3 2025, the overall financial situation in China is showing signs of initial recovery, with the CAFI index at 3.88 (equal weight) and 3.34 (volatility inverse weight), both indicating a "mildly positive" state [10] - The monetary market index and credit situation index are both in a "mildly positive" state, while the bond market index is showing signs of being "slightly cold" [7][10] - The exchange rate pressure index is the lowest among the sub-indices, reflecting ongoing pressures from the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, although recent rate cuts may alleviate some of this pressure [8] Future Outlook and Policy Predictions - The financial situation is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a likely sustained accommodative monetary policy to combat deflationary pressures [10][11] - Policies will focus on guiding incremental capital into financial markets, breaking the current standoff between stock and bond markets, and enhancing investor protection [11] - The anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts present an opportunity for China to attract international capital, which could bolster the financial situation and support economic recovery [11]

Group 1 - The U.S. government has officially ended a 43-day shutdown, which was the longest in history, resulting in a significant amount of missing economic data, including CPI releases [1] - The Bank of Japan's October meeting summary suggests a potential interest rate hike as early as December [1] - Key upcoming events include the release of various economic data such as non-farm payrolls and Nvidia's earnings report, as well as the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes [1] Group 2 - China's M2 money supply year-on-year growth rate for October was reported at 10.5%, slightly below the forecast of 10.9% [1] - Important economic indicators to watch this week include the unemployment rate and initial jobless claims in the U.S. [1] - The release dates for various economic indicators and reports from multiple countries, including the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI and the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index, are highlighted [1]

Economic Overview - The National Bureau of Statistics is set to release October economic data on November 14, with expectations of a slowdown in multiple macro indicators due to a higher base in 2024 and increased external uncertainties [2] - The latest "Chief Economist Confidence Index" from the First Financial Research Institute stands at 50.3, indicating stable economic performance and a projected annual growth target of 5% for the year [2] Industrial Growth - Economists predict a year-on-year industrial added value growth of 5.7% for October, down from 6.5% in the previous month [3] - The manufacturing PMI for October is reported at 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a contraction in manufacturing activity [3][4] - High-frequency data shows a decline in production indices, with steel production maintaining a high operating rate of 84.38% in October, reflecting a strong demand in the "golden September and silver October" season [4] Consumer Spending - The forecast for year-on-year growth in social retail sales for October is 2.7%, down from 3% in the previous month [5] - The non-manufacturing business activity index for October is at 50.1%, indicating expansion, driven by holiday consumption during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival [5] - The "old-for-new" policy is expected to significantly boost consumption in related sectors, contributing to a high base effect for October [5] Automotive Industry - In October, China's automotive production and sales reached 3.359 million and 3.322 million units, respectively, marking year-on-year increases of 12.1% and 8.8% [6] - New energy vehicle production and sales also saw significant growth, with year-on-year increases of 33.1% and 32.7% [6] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 0.8% year-on-year for the first ten months of the year, with infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery due to new policy financial tools [7][8] - The construction PMI for the civil engineering sector has shown slight improvement, indicating potential stabilization in infrastructure investment [7] Policy Measures - The government has intensified growth stabilization policies, with 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools fully allocated to support key investment projects [10] - Local governments are actively deploying measures to boost consumption and investment, including issuing consumption vouchers and launching major infrastructure projects [10][11]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Upstart reported a total revenue of approximately $277 million for Q3 2025, representing a 71% year-on-year increase and an 8% sequential increase [23] - GAAP net income for Q3 was approximately $32 million, significantly ahead of expectations, reflecting strong performance on net interest income and reduced fixed costs [26] - The average loan size decreased by 12% from the prior quarter to approximately $6,670, influenced by borrowers requesting lower amounts and a shift towards smaller loan products [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Transaction volume across Upstart's platform reached approximately 428,000, up 128% year-on-year and 15% sequentially, with around 300,000 new borrowers [24] - New products, including small-dollar loans, auto, and home loans, accounted for nearly 12% of originations and 22% of new borrowers in Q3, with transaction volume for these products growing approximately 300% year-on-year [8][9] - The auto retail business saw transaction volume grow more than 70% sequentially, with significant improvements in software and expansion into four new states [9] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer demand for Upstart's services continued to grow, with over two million applications submitted in Q3, a 30% increase from Q2, marking the highest level in over three years [6] - The Upstart Macro Index (UMI) showed a modest increase in July and August, which led to a temporary reduction in approval rates and an increase in interest rates [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Upstart aims to leverage AI technology to lead the trillion-dollar credit industry, focusing on rapid growth, profitability, and AI leadership [5] - The company is transitioning several new products from R&D to scale-up phases, with expectations for significant growth in 2026 [27] - Upstart is committed to maintaining credit performance while achieving transaction volume targets, emphasizing the importance of precise risk pricing [8][22] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the strength of consumer credit, noting no material deterioration and signs of improvement [8] - The company anticipates a favorable economic backdrop for credit, with expectations of improved consumer financial health and lower investor return requirements due to potential rate cuts [30] - Upstart plans to moderate take rates to increase origination volumes and repeat transactions, aiming for a strong finish to 2025 and a promising 2026 [30][31] Other Important Information - Upstart's contribution margin for Q3 was 57%, slightly down from the previous quarter due to lower conversion rates impacting acquisition costs [25] - The company ended Q3 with approximately $1.2 billion in loans held directly on its balance sheet, up from just over $1 billion in Q2 [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Application demand and guidance - Dan Dolev inquired about the strong application demand and how it aligns with the guidance provided, which was below expectations. Management noted that while applications grew significantly, the model's conservatism impacted transaction volume [34][35] Question: Impact of recent auto industry events - Kyle Peterson asked if recent negative credit events in the auto sector affected Upstart's expansion plans. Management confirmed no direct impact but acknowledged increased diligence in underwriting [39][40] Question: Quality of leads from marketing improvements - Peter Christiansen questioned the quality of leads following marketing enhancements. Management indicated that while application volume increased, the model's conservatism affected conversion rates [45][46] Question: Repayment speeds and credit implications - Mihir Bhatia asked about the increase in repayment speeds and its implications. Management suggested that faster repayments could indicate improving consumer health but may lead to reduced interest income in the short term [72][74] Question: Conversion rate drivers - Reggie Smith inquired about the factors affecting the conversion rate. Management clarified that the primary driver was the model's conservatism, which influenced approval rates and loan sizes [63][79]