Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - The intraday view of major varieties (TL, T, TF, TS) is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. In the short term, the upward and downward space of Treasury bonds is limited, and they are mainly in an interval oscillatory consolidation [5]. Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures and Index Futures Sector | Variety | Short - term | Medium - term | Intraday | Viewpoint Reference | Core Logic Summary | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TL2606 | Oscillate | Oscillate | Bullish | Oscillatory consolidation | The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] | Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures and Index Futures Sector - Variety: TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation [5]. - Core logic: Treasury bond futures oscillated in a narrow range yesterday. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down recently but remains highly uncertain, which suppresses the risk appetite of risk assets and increases the hedging investment demand for Treasury bonds. In the long - term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and future monetary policy is expected to be loose. Currently, domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and policy is more inclined to structural easing. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term and medium - term trend of TL2606 is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is bullish. The overall view is oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - The overall intraday view of financial futures in the stock index sector is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory. The reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The market sentiment is cautious due to the high uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation situation, increasing the safe - haven demand for national debt. However, the domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing, so the upward momentum of national debt is limited in the short term. The future trend of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, needs to be concerned. In general, national debt futures will be mainly in the range of oscillatory consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term trend is oscillatory, the medium - term trend is oscillatory, the intraday trend is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that national debt futures closed up oscillatory yesterday. The inconsistent news between Iran and the US in the US - Iran negotiation indicates large differences and high uncertainty, which makes the market sentiment cautious and increases the safe - haven demand for national debt. But the domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing, so the upward momentum of national debt is limited in the short term. The future trend of the Middle East geopolitical situation, especially the resumption of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, needs to be concerned [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is to oscillate, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the intraday view is bullish, with an overall view of oscillatory consolidation. The possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For the TL, T, TF, TS varieties, the intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The future monetary and credit environment is expected to be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, providing strong support for Treasury bond futures. However, geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum of Treasury bond futures. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2606 variety, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is to oscillate, and the reference view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures continued to oscillate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis repeatedly disturbs market sentiment. Due to weak inflation data and insufficient effective domestic demand, the future monetary and credit environment is loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, supporting Treasury bond futures. But geopolitical factors may push up inflation, and the tightening of overseas central bank policies may suppress the upward momentum. The domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, and the policy is more inclined to structural easing. In the short term, Treasury bond futures will mainly oscillate within a range [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of TL2606 is volatile, the medium - term view is also volatile, and the intraday view is bullish. The overall view is volatile consolidation, and the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, and TS is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. Due to the continuous escalation of the Middle East geopolitical crisis, the risks of global price increases and global macro - economic weakening have risen. China's inflation data is weak, and there is a problem of insufficient effective domestic demand. The future monetary and credit environment will be loose, and the possibility of interest rate hikes is low, which supports bond futures. However, there is still a possibility that overseas central banks will tighten monetary policy, and the current domestic macro - economic indicators are resilient, with policy leaning towards structural easing. Bond futures are under pressure and support, and will fluctuate within a range in the short term [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For TL2606, the short - term is defined as within a week, the medium - term is from two weeks to a month. The short - term and medium - term views are volatile, the intraday view is bullish, and the view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1] Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties include TL, T, TF, and TS. The intraday view is bullish, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that bond futures continued to fluctuate and consolidate yesterday. The Middle East geopolitical crisis has increased the risks of global price increases and economic weakening. China's inflation is weak, and the future monetary environment is expected to be loose, supporting bond futures. But there is a risk of overseas monetary tightening, and domestic economic indicators are resilient, with policy leaning towards structural easing. The future trend of bond futures depends on the impact of the geopolitical crisis on inflation and export data [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jefferson Capital reported record collections of $245 million for Q4 2025, representing a 41% increase year-over-year [3][4] - Revenue for the quarter reached $155 million, up 30% compared to the same period last year [4][18] - Adjusted pre-tax income was $51 million, reflecting a 15% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted pre-tax return on equity (ROE) of 44.8% [19] - The Cash Efficiency Ratio for the quarter was 71%, driven by strong collections from the Conn's portfolio purchase [4][17] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Collections from the Conn's portfolio contributed $36 million, while the Bluestem portfolio added $14 million to collections for the quarter [11] - The estimated remaining collections (ERC) reached $3.4 billion, a 23% increase year-over-year, with ERC related to Conn's and Bluestem comprising $140 million and $296 million respectively [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Delinquency trends remain elevated across non-mortgage consumer asset classes, creating favorable portfolio supply trends [5][8] - The current level of personal savings is $831 billion, significantly lower than the pre-pandemic average, indicating limited consumer ability to absorb financial hardships [6] - The insolvency market has seen an increase in the number of insolvencies in the U.S. and Canada, fueling a resurgence in supply of insolvency portfolios [6][8] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to solidify its leadership position as a strategic acquirer of consumer credit portfolios, with the Bluestem acquisition expected to contribute meaningfully to financial results in 2026 [4][10] - Jefferson Capital is focused on deploying capital to purchase portfolios at attractive risk-adjusted returns, with a robust funding structure and proven access to capital markets [20][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the investment opportunity, citing elevated levels of consumer delinquencies and charge-offs as a driver for robust portfolio supply [8][9] - The company has successfully navigated credit cycle fluctuations and is better positioned to take advantage of market opportunities compared to earlier periods [10][20] Other Important Information - The company completed a follow-on offering in January, improving liquidity and reducing J.C. Flowers' ownership to 53% [3] - A quarterly dividend of $0.24 per share was declared, representing a 4.7% annualized yield [24] - The company repurchased 3 million shares for $59 million as part of a tactical strategy to support the follow-on offering [24] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on macro uncertainties affecting purchasing environment - Management indicated that while energy costs and modest employment deterioration could impact delinquencies, they do not expect these factors to significantly affect liquidation rates [27][28] Question: Trends among sellers regarding forward flow deals - Management noted that they do not target a specific percentage for forward flows, but historically about half of deployments have been in forward flows [31][32] Question: Increase in supply of charged-off accounts - Management stated that the supply of charged-off accounts has been elevated, but the fourth quarter is typically the largest for originators to sell [46][48] Question: Stability of return profiles across the book - Management confirmed that return profiles have been stable, with predictable pricing in the market [49] Question: Tax rate expectations for 2026 - Management suggested a tax provision estimate of around 24.5% for 2026 [50] Question: Characteristics of deployments and market shifts - Management highlighted an increase in deployments in insolvencies and noted that their asset class specialization and geographic diversification continue to yield attractive returns [56][58] Question: Legal channel returns and scaling - Management indicated that the volume of legal accounts corresponds to underwritten expectations, and the growth in legal volume is consistent with their forecasts [91][92] Question: Areas of the market consciously avoided - Management confirmed that they have not consciously walked away from any parts of the market due to pricing or return thresholds [93][94]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The outlook is for the market to be volatile [3] Core Viewpoints - The spot market is still in a price - cut cycle, and the market has some doubts about the effect of the price increase letter in the off - season of March. New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were listed today. The main contract EC2604 opened lower, with its decline widening at noon and falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded to some extent. As of the close, the 04 contract increased its positions and closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, and the current open interest rose to 34,000 lots [1] - The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. In the subsequent fundamentals, MSK opened the cabin at 1900 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance through short - term export rush pulses. After the festival, attention should be paid to the risk of position transfer and contract replacement brought by newly listed contracts [2] - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2] Summary by Related Content Market Performance - The main contract EC2604 opened lower, and its decline widened at noon, falling more than 5% during the session. The trading volume rebounded, and it closed at 1179 points, down 4.77%, with the current open interest rising to 34,000 lots. Some contracts fluctuated greatly, with the EC2607 contract rising more than 12% to close at 1731 points (the contract with the highest valuation on the market), and the EC2609 contract falling 22.99% to close at 1239.5 points [1] Spot Market Freight Rates - According to Jiyu Technology, the freight rate of MSK in the first week of March remained flat at 1900/2000 US dollars. The AE1 Shanghai - Rotterdam freight rate of NSK on March 6 was 1200/1900/2000 US dollars/TEU/FEU, remaining flat compared with February 26. The HPL - SPOT freight rate in February was 1835 US dollars/FEU, and in March it was at a high of 2935 US dollars/FEU. The low - price of 00CL in February was 2330 US dollars/FEU; CMA maintained at 2293 US dollars/FEU in February and 3393 US dollars/FEU in March. ONE maintained at 2035 US dollars/FEU in February and 2535 US dollars/FEU at the beginning of March; MSC maintained at 2140 US dollars/FEU in February [1] Geopolitical Situation - According to CCTV News, the US advised US merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters. On February 9 local time, the US issued the latest guidelines to merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, advising US - flagged merchant ships to stay away from Iranian territorial waters as much as possible and verbally refuse when requested to be boarded by the Iranian military [1] Macroeconomic Situation - According to Jinshi Data, the Sentix investor confidence index in the Eurozone in February was 4.2, expected to be 0, and the previous value was - 1.8. Germany rebounded unexpectedly, with its index rising from - 16.4 last month to - 6.9, reaching the highest level since July 2025 [2] Trading Logic - New contracts EC2605, EC2607, and EC2609 were added today. The 05 and 07 contracts are stronger due to the peak - season attribute, while the 09 off - season contract shows differentiation. The main contract trades based on the pessimistic logic of the price - holding effect in March and returns to the 1170 - 1200 point range with amplified fluctuations. Attention should be paid to whether photovoltaic goods can drive the cargo volume to rebound in advance and the risk of position transfer and contract replacement [2] Contract Analysis - The 05 contract closed at 1273 points on the first day of listing, with a premium of 94 points over the 04 contract and a discount of 226 points to the 06 contract. Considering the impact of US tariff increases on global trade in May 2025 and the possible subsequent position transfer and contract replacement, the reverse arbitrage logic of the 04 - 05 contracts can be considered [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of TL2603 is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is weak, and the overall view is shock consolidation because the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. - For financial futures in the bond index sector including TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. In the short term, due to reduced risk in precious metals and the stock market, weakened demand for bond hedging, slowed Fed rate - cut expectations, and the central bank's structural rate - cut policy, the upside of bond futures is limited. In the long - term, with weakening macro - economic indicators and insufficient effective demand, there are still expectations of rate cuts, so bond futures have strong support. Overall, bond futures will be mainly in shock consolidation in the short term [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For TL2603, the short - term is shock, the medium - term is shock, the intraday is weak, with a view of shock consolidation, and the core logic is that the possibility of a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is low [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Bond Index Sector - For varieties like TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is shock, and the reference view is shock consolidation. The core logic is that today's bond futures are in shock consolidation. The risk in precious metals and the stock market has cooled, reducing the hedging demand for bonds. The Fed's short - term rate - cut expectations have slowed, and the central bank's monetary policy focuses on structural rate cuts. In the short term, there is no strong need for a comprehensive rate cut, limiting the upside of bond futures. In the long - run, macro - economic indicators are weakening, effective demand is insufficient, and there are still expectations of rate cuts, providing support for bond futures. So, in the short term, bond futures are mainly in shock consolidation [5].

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided in the given content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term view of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the range [1][5]. - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation [5]. - The short - term, medium - term, and intraday views of IH2603 are oscillatory, oscillatory, and bullish respectively, with a view of oscillatory consolidation [1]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term is oscillatory, the medium - term is oscillatory, the intraday is bullish, and the view is oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is bullish, and the medium - term view is oscillatory, with a reference view of oscillatory consolidation. The core logic is that the stock indexes oscillated and rose yesterday, the trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2270.2 billion yuan, an increase of 106.7 billion yuan from the previous day. With the stop - fall and rebound of silver, market sentiment has improved, and the operation logic of the stock index has returned to its own fundamentals. The positive expectations of the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic of the medium - and long - term upward movement of the stock index. However, in the short term, macroeconomic indicators have weakened, the pressure of "weak reality" has increased, and the capital side has become cautious approaching the long holiday, so the upward momentum of the stock index is expected to be insufficient [5].

Group 1 - The upcoming week will feature key economic data releases in the U.S., including the January non-farm payroll report and the Consumer Price Index (CPI), with adjustments in release dates due to a brief government shutdown [1] - The January ADP employment figure recorded an increase of 22,000, significantly below the market expectation of 48,000, and down from the previous value of 41,000 [1] - The European Central Bank has maintained the three key interest rates in the Eurozone at 2%, 2.15%, and 2.40%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting with stable rates [1] Group 2 - For the week ending January 31, the initial jobless claims in the U.S. were reported at 231,000, exceeding the expected 212,000 and up from the previous value of 209,000 [1] - The Bank of Japan's January monetary policy meeting summary indicated that some members proposed raising interest rates to address inflation concerns [1] - The preliminary one-year inflation rate expectation for February in the U.S. has decreased to 3.5%, lower than the market expectation of 4% [1] Group 3 - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index preliminary value rose from 56.4 in January to 57.3, indicating a rebound in consumer confidence [1] - Key economic data releases for the week include the U.S. unemployment rate and seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll data on February 11, initial jobless claims on February 12, and the unadjusted CPI year-on-year data on February 13 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic, and the stock index will mainly consolidate in a range. Although there are short - term disturbances such as the sharp fluctuations of silver and the weakening of macro - economic indicators, the long - term upward trend of the stock index is supported by policy - side favorable expectations and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds [1][5] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2603, the short - term view is "oscillation", the medium - term view is "oscillation", the intraday view is "bullish", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that the risk preference of the stock market is cautiously optimistic [1] 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is "bullish", the medium - term view is "oscillation", and the reference view is "oscillation and consolidation". The core logic is that last Friday, each stock index oscillated and slightly pulled back. The trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2163.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 30.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The sharp fluctuations of silver disturbed the market sentiment, and the willingness of funds to take profits and leave the market increased, resulting in a continuous contraction of the trading volume of the stock market. In the short term, the macro - economic indicators have weakened, and the pressure of "weak reality" has increased. Coupled with the weakening of risk preference caused by silver and the clear signal of risk control from the regulatory authorities, the stock market sentiment is cautious. However, the sharp fluctuations of precious metals are short - term disturbances from external factors, and the repair of the stock market risk preference will eventually return to its own fundamentals. The favorable expectations on the policy side and the continuous net inflow of incremental funds into the stock market remain unchanged, which constitute the core logic for the long - term upward movement of the stock index [5]