中式餐饮

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浙商证券:中式餐饮规模快速扩张 品牌竞争格局分明
智通财经网· 2025-08-21 08:03
Industry Overview - The restaurant market in mainland China is projected to reach over 55,000 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the Chinese cuisine sector, which is expected to reach over 36,000 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2] - The market for Chinese cuisine is anticipated to grow to 53,000 billion yuan by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of around 10% from 2025 to 2027 [1][2] - The demand for dining is being driven by rational consumption patterns, urbanization, and rising per capita income, establishing a solid demand foundation for the industry [2] Brand Competition Landscape - The development of Chinese cuisine chains has entered a new phase with brands operating over 100 stores, showing significant growth, particularly in the 501-1000 store range, which has seen an increase of nearly 94% [3] - Fast-casual brands like Laoxiangji, Xiaocaiyuan, and Xiangcunji are expanding at a faster pace compared to mid-to-high-end dining, with leading brands entering a phase of "fast + stable" structural expansion [3] - The industry remains fragmented with low concentration, as leading brands are primarily concentrated in key regions such as East China and Southwest China, indicating a path of "regional deepening + national expansion" [3] Future Outlook - The current chain penetration rate of Chinese cuisine is only 23.2%, significantly lower than the United States (59.29%) and Japan (52.3%), suggesting room for growth as standardization and digitalization continue to advance [4] - The market for affordable Chinese dining, particularly those with a price point of 50-100 yuan, is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2028, making it a key battleground for chain brands [4] - The international Chinese cuisine market is expected to grow from 233 billion USD in 2020 to 445 billion USD by 2027, with Southeast Asia and Europe and the Americas being the primary expansion areas for Chinese brands [4]