来源：红餐智库 作者：红餐产业研究院 近年来，随着全国餐饮收入增速出现了明显放缓，当下餐饮行业正经历着从"增量" 迈向 "存量" 的关键转型期。在人力、租金、食材等成本持续上涨，叠 加餐饮人均消费价格不断下滑等压力下，餐饮品牌纷纷将"降本增效、差异化突围"作为核心目标。在此背景下，餐饮供应链作为支撑行业发展的幕后"英 雄"，其重要性愈发凸显。 那么，如今的餐饮供应链呈现出怎样的态势？又有哪些新趋势、新动向正在重塑行业格局？为此，红餐产业研究院发布了《餐饮供应链趋势发展报告 2025》。以下为报告的部分内容展示。 餐饮供应链日益完善，企业的角色正从支持者转变为驱动者 据国家统计局数据，2024年全国餐饮收入近5.6万亿元，同比增长5.3%。2025年1—8月，全国餐饮收入超过3.6万亿元，同比增长3.6%，增速出现了明显放 缓。 近年来，我国餐饮行业的连锁化率持续提升，行业集中度与标准化程度不断提高。美团数据显示，全国餐饮连锁化率从2020年的15%稳步上升至2024年的 23%。未来，中国餐饮连锁化率仍然有较大提升空间。 随着餐饮连锁化率的提升，连锁品牌对食材品质、食品安全、供应稳定性、产品创新等提出了更高的 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese catering industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with a significant decline in revenue growth rates and a shift in consumer spending habits [2][16][18] - The industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by increased chain operations, innovative marketing strategies, and a focus on product differentiation [5][24][35] Market Overview - National catering revenue from January to August 2025 reached 3.6 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, down 3 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2] - The number of catering outlets in China exceeded 7.6 million by August 2025, a decrease of 1.9% compared to 2024 [3] Chain Operations - The chain rate in the catering industry has accelerated, with the overall chain rate increasing from 15% in 2020 to an estimated 25% in 2025 [5][6] - The fast food segment saw a 4 percentage point increase in chain rate from 2023 to 2024, reaching 29% [6] Delivery Market Dynamics - The national food delivery market exceeded 1.27 trillion yuan in 2024, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, and is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion yuan in 2025 [9][10] - Daily food delivery orders peaked at over 200 million by August 2025, doubling from 2024 [10] Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending on dining is becoming more cautious, with a significant drop in the proportion of consumers expecting to increase their dining expenditures in 2025 [16][18] - The average per capita consumption in the catering sector fell to 36.6 yuan by August 2025, a decrease of 7.7% from 2024 [18] Industry Trends - The catering industry is witnessing a "listing wave," with several major brands going public in 2025, although many are facing financial challenges [19][22] - The average lifespan of catering outlets has decreased, with many businesses closing within two years of operation [22] Product Innovation - Brands are focusing on product innovation, with over 5,263 new products launched from January to July 2025 [25][28] - Regional ingredients and flavors are becoming key areas for product development [28][29] Marketing Strategies - Short drama marketing is emerging as a new trend, with many brands producing series to engage consumers [35] - User-generated content (UGC) marketing is gaining popularity, with brands launching interactive campaigns to enhance consumer engagement [37] Digital Transformation - The catering industry is increasingly adopting digital and AI technologies to enhance operational efficiency and customer engagement [38][41] - Brands are implementing digital systems for supply chain management and customer relationship management [39][42] International Expansion - Chinese catering brands are exploring overseas markets, with over 30 brands opening their first international locations since 2024 [43] - However, many brands are adopting a more cautious approach to international expansion in 2025 [45][46] Segment Highlights - The "small stir-fry" segment is gaining popularity, particularly in Jiangxi cuisine, with significant social media engagement [52] - The hot pot market is experiencing a decline in outlet numbers and average spending, while smaller hot pot formats are thriving [55][58] - The fast food segment is growing steadily, driven by consumer demand for value [61] - The ready-to-drink beverage market is stabilizing, with tea drinks entering an adjustment phase while coffee drinks continue to grow [64][67]

Core Insights - The pre-prepared food industry in China is experiencing explosive growth, with the number of related enterprises reaching 28,000, and a significant increase in registrations, with 11,700 new companies expected in 2024, marking a 120.43% year-on-year growth [3] - The core growth drivers for the pre-prepared food industry include the rising chain restaurant rate, changing consumer habits, and advancements in cold chain logistics technology [10] Industry Overview - The pre-prepared food sector is seen as a key engine for the integration of agriculture and consumption, as well as the transformation of the food industry [3] - The Chinese government is actively working on establishing national standards for pre-prepared foods to enhance consumer rights and choices [1] Company Insights - Qianwei Yangchu, a leading player in the pre-prepared food supply chain, has seen its stock price rise by 50.26% since May, positioning it as a top performer in the sector [4] - The company reported a sales revenue of 65.22 million yuan for frozen prepared dishes in the first half of 2025, a 67.31% increase year-on-year, driven by increased sales volume [4] Competitive Positioning - Qianwei Yangchu collaborates closely with major restaurant chains like Yum China and Haidilao, providing customized products that meet high supply chain stability requirements [7] - The company employs advanced freezing technology to preserve food quality without the use of preservatives, addressing common consumer concerns about pre-prepared foods [7] Marketing and Consumer Trust - The company is focused on transparency in its production processes to build consumer trust, showcasing the entire journey from ingredient selection to delivery [8] - Qianwei Yangchu is actively participating in industry standard discussions and has implemented measures to ensure compliance with new regulations, including a 100% temperature-controlled transport system [9] Future Outlook - The expected increase in the chain restaurant rate to over 35% by 2028 will drive demand for standardized pre-prepared foods in the B2B market [10] - Changing consumer demographics are fostering a demand for convenient cooking options, which will boost C2C pre-prepared food consumption [10] - Improvements in cold chain logistics will reduce transportation costs and losses, expanding the market reach for pre-prepared foods [10]

Core Insights - The compound seasoning market in China is experiencing rapid growth, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.2% driven by the standardization and chain development in the restaurant industry [1][2] Group 1: Market Growth and Trends - The restaurant industry in China is at a new development stage, with the market size expected to exceed 5.5 trillion yuan by 2024 and the chain rate increasing from 18% in 2021 to 23% [2] - The number of chain restaurant brands with 500-1000 stores has seen a remarkable growth rate of 93.6%, contributing significantly to industry expansion [2] - The compound seasoning market holds a dominant position with a market share of 1,489 billion yuan, accounting for 75.1% of the total seasoning market [2] Group 2: Importance of Compound Seasonings - Compound seasonings play a crucial role in maintaining the consistency and quality of dishes across numerous chain restaurant locations, acting as a "foundation" for standardization [2][3] - The fixed formulas and processes of compound seasonings enhance efficiency and reduce costs in food preparation, particularly in complex dishes [3] Group 3: Product Development and Innovation - The development of compound seasonings is trending towards specialization, functionality, and flavor differentiation, with solid products gaining a market share of 53.3% [4] - The market for ready-to-cook meal kits, which fall between compound seasonings and pre-prepared dishes, is growing rapidly, currently holding a market share of 191 billion yuan, or 13.2% [5] - Companies are encouraged to focus on creating unique flavors that can be industrialized, transforming local specialties into standardized products for chain restaurants [6][7] Group 4: Strategic Shifts in the Industry - The industry is shifting from traditional production methods to food industrialization solutions, requiring seasoning companies to enhance their R&D capabilities and responsiveness to market demands [7] - The competitive landscape is characterized by low barriers to entry due to standardization, making differentiation through unique flavors essential for attracting consumers [6][7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent food delivery war on small and micro businesses, highlighting the decline in profit margins and the challenges faced by local eateries amidst aggressive competition from major platforms [2][3][7]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market has significantly expanded, with daily orders from major platforms reaching 250 million, up from 80 million before the competition intensified [4]. - Major platforms like Meituan, JD, and Alibaba reported a combined profit drop of over 20 billion yuan in the second quarter, with net profits down 89%, 50.8%, and 18% respectively [3][5]. - The competition has led to a substantial increase in user engagement, with Taobao's flash purchase orders peaking at 12 million daily and Meituan maintaining a dominant market share with over 15 million daily orders [5]. Group 2: Impact on Small Businesses - Small and micro businesses, particularly those with low average transaction values, have seen profit margins decline by 7.2% overall, with those under 20 yuan experiencing a 12.61% drop [7][10]. - Community-based eateries, often family-run, are struggling as consumer preferences shift towards cheaper delivery options, leading to a decrease in foot traffic and profitability [12][13]. - Many small business owners report that participation in delivery services often results in losses, as they are forced to subsidize delivery costs while receiving only half the profit compared to dine-in orders [15][16]. Group 3: Survival Strategies - Some small businesses have adapted by focusing on enhancing the dine-in experience, using delivery as a supplementary channel rather than a primary revenue source [21][26]. - Successful examples include eateries that maintain a strong local presence and customer loyalty by offering unique dining experiences and quality service, which helps convert delivery customers into dine-in patrons [26][31]. - The article suggests that the future of small eateries may involve either enhancing dine-in experiences or embracing retail trends, similar to successful models seen in Japan and Singapore [34][39][43].

Core Viewpoint - Guangzhou is actively promoting its restaurant industry to stimulate consumption and economic growth, showcasing resilience amid challenges faced by the national dining sector [1][2][4]. Group 1: Restaurant Industry Development - A recent meeting in Guangzhou focused on the development of the restaurant industry, attended by key city leaders and representatives from 16 restaurant enterprises, highlighting the city's commitment to this sector [1]. - Guangzhou's restaurant revenue exceeded 100 billion yuan last year, leading growth among first-tier cities, and has continued to show positive growth in the first seven months of this year [1][3]. - The city has a high density of restaurants, with approximately 134 restaurants per 10,000 people, indicating a vibrant market [6]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Dining - Dining consumption has historically been a significant driver of overall consumption growth in Guangzhou, acting as a barometer for economic changes [2]. - Nationally, from 2015 to 2019, restaurant revenue growth outpaced retail sales growth, underscoring the sector's role in stimulating domestic demand [2]. - Despite a downturn in the restaurant industry in major cities like Shanghai and Beijing, Guangzhou's restaurant sector has shown a 3.1% growth in retail revenue in the first half of this year, outperforming its peers [4][6]. Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - The restaurant industry in Guangzhou faces pressures such as rising service fees and commissions from delivery services, complicating profitability for businesses [14]. - New regulations affecting labor contracts may also impact the restaurant sector, necessitating adjustments from businesses [15]. - There is a growing trend of restaurant enterprises seeking to go public, with several Guangzhou-based brands, such as "Yujian Xiaomian," taking steps towards listing [15][16]. Group 4: Cultural and Culinary Significance - Guangzhou is recognized as a culinary hub, with a rich food culture that attracts both local and tourist spending, accounting for over 20% of tourism-related expenditures [14]. - The city aims to enhance its status as a "World Food Capital," with ongoing initiatives to promote local cuisine and dining experiences [14][18]. - The evolution of Cantonese cuisine, influenced by various regional styles, is contributing to its growing popularity and market presence [18][19].

Industry Overview - The restaurant market in mainland China is projected to reach over 55,000 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of approximately 9% from 2020 to 2024, driven primarily by the Chinese cuisine sector, which is expected to reach over 36,000 billion yuan in 2024 [1][2] - The market for Chinese cuisine is anticipated to grow to 53,000 billion yuan by 2028, with an average annual growth rate of around 10% from 2025 to 2027 [1][2] - The demand for dining is being driven by rational consumption patterns, urbanization, and rising per capita income, establishing a solid demand foundation for the industry [2] Brand Competition Landscape - The development of Chinese cuisine chains has entered a new phase with brands operating over 100 stores, showing significant growth, particularly in the 501-1000 store range, which has seen an increase of nearly 94% [3] - Fast-casual brands like Laoxiangji, Xiaocaiyuan, and Xiangcunji are expanding at a faster pace compared to mid-to-high-end dining, with leading brands entering a phase of "fast + stable" structural expansion [3] - The industry remains fragmented with low concentration, as leading brands are primarily concentrated in key regions such as East China and Southwest China, indicating a path of "regional deepening + national expansion" [3] Future Outlook - The current chain penetration rate of Chinese cuisine is only 23.2%, significantly lower than the United States (59.29%) and Japan (52.3%), suggesting room for growth as standardization and digitalization continue to advance [4] - The market for affordable Chinese dining, particularly those with a price point of 50-100 yuan, is expected to grow, with a projected CAGR of 8.9% from 2024 to 2028, making it a key battleground for chain brands [4] - The international Chinese cuisine market is expected to grow from 233 billion USD in 2020 to 445 billion USD by 2027, with Southeast Asia and Europe and the Americas being the primary expansion areas for Chinese brands [4]

Group 1 - The article discusses the entrepreneurial journey of Mei Chuming, who transitioned from the restaurant industry in China to establishing a fried chicken brand in Vietnam, capitalizing on the local market's potential [1][3][12] - Mei's business model focuses on leveraging the low chain rate in Vietnam's restaurant industry, which stands at only 4%, compared to over 20% in China, indicating significant growth potential [9][10][11] - The Vietnamese market is experiencing a consumption upgrade, with a population exceeding 100 million and a projected GDP per capita of $4,700 in 2024, suggesting a burgeoning middle class [7][10] Group 2 - The article highlights the importance of understanding local consumer behavior and preferences, emphasizing that successful brands must align with consumer perceptions rather than solely relying on their established reputation [12][13] - Mei's strategy involves selecting proven market segments, such as fried chicken, which already has established demand in Vietnam, as evidenced by the presence of international brands like KFC and McDonald's [15] - The article outlines the dual strategies in the Vietnamese restaurant market: "mass market" targeting budget-conscious consumers and "premium" offerings for higher-income groups [18][17] Group 3 - The article notes that the current state of Vietnam's offline dining industry is comparable to China's around 2012, with online food delivery still in its early stages, similar to China's 2019 market [32][34] - Three main food delivery platforms in Vietnam are identified: Grab, ShopeeFood, and Be, each catering to different consumer segments and price points [35][36] - Marketing strategies in Vietnam heavily rely on social media platforms like Facebook, which serves as a primary channel for brand exposure and consumer engagement [39][40] Group 4 - The article discusses the challenges of hiring full-time staff in Vietnam, leading to a flexible employment model where one full-time employee is supported by six part-time workers [45] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to local labor laws and cultural expectations, including maintaining good relationships with local authorities to mitigate hidden costs associated with business operations [51][52] - The article concludes with a reminder that successful entrepreneurship in Vietnam requires a deep understanding of local customs and consumer behavior, urging businesses to adapt rather than impose their practices [50]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the challenges and strategies for Chinese restaurant brands entering the U.S. market, focusing on the fragmented supply chain and the importance of local adaptation in operations and management [2][3][41]. Group 1: Background and Experience - The guest, Huang Wenbing, transitioned from a Fintech entrepreneur to managing multiple Asian restaurant brands in the U.S., overseeing 7 brands and 53 locations [3][5]. - Huang's initial interest in restaurants stemmed from viewing them as tangible assets, similar to real estate, and aimed to make the industry more transparent and calculable [4][5]. Group 2: Market Strategy - The strategy of "encircling the city from the countryside" is emphasized, suggesting that focusing on suburban markets in the U.S. is more viable than targeting major cities like New York or Los Angeles [5][11]. - The U.S. market is characterized by a significant middle-class population residing in suburban areas, which presents unique opportunities for restaurant brands [11][12]. Group 3: Supply Chain Challenges - The U.S. restaurant supply chain is highly fragmented, requiring operators to manage multiple suppliers for different needs, complicating operations [17][20]. - Each restaurant typically needs to coordinate with six suppliers, and the lack of a unified supply chain can lead to inefficiencies and increased costs [17][20]. Group 4: Operational Insights - The importance of standardization in restaurant operations is highlighted, as it is crucial for scalability and efficiency [14][27]. - The article discusses the necessity of digital transformation in the U.S. restaurant industry, particularly post-pandemic, to enhance operational efficiency and reduce cash handling risks [15][16]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Huang believes that leveraging local experience and adapting to the U.S. market's unique characteristics will be key to successful expansion [29][30]. - The potential for growth in the U.S. restaurant market is significant, with many areas still underdeveloped, indicating opportunities for brands that can effectively navigate the supply chain and operational challenges [31][36].

Company Overview - The company is a well-known operator of Chinese casual dining restaurants, positioned in the value-for-money and high-quality environment segment of the Chinese fusion cuisine market [1] - As of May 2025, the company operates 493 stores through a direct-operated model, covering Hong Kong and various cities in mainland China [1] - The company's existing stores maintain healthy operations, with 2024 sales per old store expected to exceed 10 million yuan [1] Industry Analysis - The restaurant industry in China is projected to reach a market size of 5.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with chain restaurants accounting for 23.3% of revenue, an increase of 4.2 percentage points since 2019 [2] - The company ranks fourth in the market with a projected revenue of 3.8 billion yuan in 2024, achieving a market share of 0.7% [2] - The industry is experiencing a shift towards affordable and online dining options, with online ordering expected to account for 28% of total orders in 2024 [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has strong research and development capabilities, with the founder serving as the "product manager" to lead menu development [2] - Existing stores maintain an average annual sales of over 10 million yuan, and the investment payback period for new stores has been reduced to 14-15 months due to smaller and more efficient store models [2] - The company is implementing a store profit-sharing mechanism to incentivize core employees and ensure high-quality operations and expansion [2] Investment Outlook - Revenue projections for the company are 4.68 billion yuan in 2025, 5.90 billion yuan in 2026, and 7.50 billion yuan in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 22.0%, 25.9%, and 27.3% respectively [3] - Adjusted net profits are expected to be 490 million yuan in 2025, 590 million yuan in 2026, and 750 million yuan in 2027, with growth rates of 34.8%, 22.1%, and 25.9% respectively [3] - The company is rated as a "buy" based on its accelerated store expansion and improved single-store efficiency [3]