上游镍产能布局继续扩张，镍资源竞争力与影响力进入全球级2024 年全年产出镍金属51,677 吨，同比 增长91%。公司在印尼建成15 万金吨/年镍资源产能，目前公司控股产能为11 万金吨镍/年，参股产能为 4万金吨镍/年，在世界MHP 镍产能领域排名前3，镍资源竞争力与影响力进入全球级。2024 年11 月10 日，公司与淡水河谷印尼公司在北京中印尼合作文件签署仪式上签署总投资14.2 亿美元（年产6.6 万吨 镍资源）的湿法冶金项目，成功与印尼国家控股镍矿企业开启"中国技术+印尼镍资源"的联盟合作。未 来公司镍产能将持续扩张，计划25-27 年公司镍资源（含参股）由12+万吨增长至21.6+万吨。 盈利预测与估值 根据24 年公司前驱体产销表现，我们下调25-26 年前驱体产销预期，预计公司2025-2027 年EPS 分别为 0.31、0.47、0.73 元（前值2025-2026 年0.43、0.59 元，调整幅度分别为-27.9%、-20.3%）。可比公司25 年Wind一致预期PB 均值为1.55 倍，考虑到公司明确未来镍产能将继续大规模扩张，给予公司25 年1.70 倍PB，25 年BPS 为4 ...

2025年4月29日，格林美发布了2024年年报。报告显示，公司实现营业总收入332亿元，同比增长 8.75%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为10.20亿元，同比增长9.19%；扣除非经常性损益的净利润为 12.91亿元，同比大幅增长636.24%。尽管公司在新能源材料和城市矿山开采业务上取得了显著进展，但 第四季度营收和净利润的环比下降也暴露出一定的经营压力。 新能源材料业务：产能释放，市场地位稳固 2024年，格林美的城市矿山开采业务乘"两新"东风，实现了显著增长。动力电池回收与梯级利用业务营 收大幅增长，回收拆解的动力电池达到35,930吨，同比增长31%，折合4.31GWh，同比增长41%。碳酸 锂回收产量超过4,000吨，同比增长超44%，锂回收率超过95%，向97%的超高水平进击。 钨回收总量达到6,486吨（WC计），同比增长39%，再制造钨产品成为行业品牌产品。钴产品销售 12,557吨，同比增长76%，超细钴粉占据全球市场50%以上，连续12年保持全球市场第一。报废汽车业 务也大幅增长，综合利用回收总量达到28万吨，同比增长133%。 尽管城市矿山开采业务表现优异，但公司在第四季度的净利润环比 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.86 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.02 billion, up 9.19% year-over-year [1]. - The core product shipments, particularly for nickel and battery materials, have shown significant growth, with the company expanding its nickel production capacity and maintaining a strong market position [2][3]. - The gross margin improved by 3.05 percentage points to 15.29% in 2024, driven by increased sales and improved profitability across various product lines [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 33.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 8.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.02 billion, reflecting a 9.19% increase [1]. - The company’s core product, the ternary precursor materials for power batteries, saw a shipment volume of 189,000 tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, solidifying its position among the top two globally [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company produced 51,677 tons of nickel metal in 2024, marking a 91% increase year-over-year. It has established a nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia, ranking among the top three globally in MHP nickel production capacity [3]. - A significant investment of USD 1.42 billion was made in a hydrometallurgical project in collaboration with Vale Indonesia, aimed at producing 66,000 tons of nickel resources annually [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be RMB 0.31, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.73, respectively. The price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 1.70, with a target price of RMB 6.86 [4][6]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of RMB 42.18 billion in 2025, RMB 52.18 billion in 2026, and RMB 64.24 billion in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6][12].