Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the transfer of shares of Likin Resources (02245) from Deutsche Bank to Huasheng Capital Securities, with a market value of HKD 543 million, representing 4.86% of the total shares [1] - Minsheng Securities reports that Likin Resources is collaborating with partners to invest in nickel smelting production lines on Obi Island, Indonesia, with a planned wet process capacity of 120,000 tons of nickel and 14,000 tons of cobalt, with an equity capacity of 69,000 tons of nickel and 8,200 tons of cobalt, expected to be fully operational by 2024 [1] - The company has a pyrometallurgical project with a first phase capacity of 95,000 tons, which is set to commence production in 2023, while part of the second phase production lines is expected to be operational in the first half of 2025, with full production by 2026, increasing total capacity to 280,000 tons and equity capacity to 155,000 tons, indicating significant capacity flexibility [1]

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 33.2 billion yuan for 2024, representing an 8.75% year-over-year increase, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.02 billion yuan, up 9.19% year-over-year [1] - The company experienced significant growth in core product shipments, particularly in the battery materials sector, with a notable increase in profitability [2] - Nickel production capacity continues to expand, positioning the company among the top three in global MHP nickel production capacity [3] - Earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downward, but the company maintains a positive outlook on future nickel capacity expansion [4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 8.33 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.15% year-over-year but an increase of 10.53% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company's comprehensive gross margin improved by 3.05 percentage points to 15.29% in 2024, with specific product gross margins also showing increases [2] Product and Market Developments - The company’s core product, ternary precursor materials for power batteries, saw a shipment volume of 189,000 tons in 2024, a 5% increase year-over-year [2] - The sales of nickel resources are set to increase significantly due to a new investment project in Indonesia, which will produce 66,000 tons of nickel annually [3] Production Capacity and Expansion - The company produced 51,677 tons of nickel metal in 2024, a 91% increase year-over-year, and has established a nickel resource capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia [3] - Future plans include increasing nickel resources from over 120,000 tons to over 216,000 tons by 2025-2027 [3] Valuation and Forecast - The company’s EPS estimates for 2025-2027 have been revised to 0.31, 0.47, and 0.73 yuan, reflecting a downward adjustment [4] - The target price for the company is set at 6.86 yuan, based on a projected price-to-book (PB) ratio of 1.70 for 2025 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 6.86 [7][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of RMB 33.2 billion in 2024, representing a year-over-year increase of 8.75%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 1.02 billion, up 9.19% year-over-year [1]. - The core product shipments, particularly for nickel and battery materials, have shown significant growth, with the company expanding its nickel production capacity and maintaining a strong market position [2][3]. - The gross margin improved by 3.05 percentage points to 15.29% in 2024, driven by increased sales and improved profitability across various product lines [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of RMB 33.2 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 8.75%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB 1.02 billion, reflecting a 9.19% increase [1]. - The company’s core product, the ternary precursor materials for power batteries, saw a shipment volume of 189,000 tons, a 5% increase year-over-year, solidifying its position among the top two globally [2]. Production Capacity and Expansion - The company produced 51,677 tons of nickel metal in 2024, marking a 91% increase year-over-year. It has established a nickel production capacity of 150,000 tons per year in Indonesia, ranking among the top three globally in MHP nickel production capacity [3]. - A significant investment of USD 1.42 billion was made in a hydrometallurgical project in collaboration with Vale Indonesia, aimed at producing 66,000 tons of nickel resources annually [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 are projected to be RMB 0.31, RMB 0.47, and RMB 0.73, respectively. The price-to-book (PB) ratio for 2025 is estimated at 1.70, with a target price of RMB 6.86 [4][6]. - The company’s revenue is expected to grow significantly, with forecasts of RMB 42.18 billion in 2025, RMB 52.18 billion in 2026, and RMB 64.24 billion in 2027, reflecting a robust growth trajectory [6][12].