国元国际发布研报称，海底捞(06862)通过优化门店、打造差异化主题店及推进"红石榴计划"孵化多品 牌，寻求增长新动力。在不同新品牌的孵化过程中，不仅旨在培育公司第二增长曲线，亦能有效构建业 务间的协同效应。给予"买入"评级，目标价18.06港元。 公司推进多品牌发展战略，红石榴计划自去年推出以来，已有焰请烤肉铺子、火焰官、小嗨爱炸、举高 高小火锅等多个子品牌落地，覆盖正餐、简餐、快餐等不同消费场景。当中，焰请烤肉铺子作为标杆项 目，以"烤肉+洗头+夜间酒吧"的复合模式，吸引不同客群，目前已运营超70家门店。不同新品牌的孵 化，不仅为了培养公司的二次成长曲线，同时也能形成协同效应。 投资建议 公司采取门店优化与拓展并行的策略，主品牌海底捞持续升级门店，子品牌孵化挖掘新的细分市场机 会，当前股价对应25E股息率约6%。该行预期2025-2027年公司实现归母净利润分别为44.34/48.57/53.42 亿元，给予18.06港元/股目标价，对应25年约20倍PE，较现价有23.7%的涨幅空间。 国元国际主要观点如下： 海底捞门店深耕差异化，打造特色主题店 截至25H1，公司餐厅总数量为1489家，海底捞(自营) ...

公司推进多品牌发展战略，红石榴计划自去年推出以来，已有焰请烤肉铺子、火焰官、小嗨爱炸、举高 高小火锅等多个子品牌落地，覆盖正餐、简餐、快餐等不同消费场景。当中，焰请烤肉铺子作为标杆项 目，以"烤肉+洗头+夜间酒吧"的复合模式，吸引不同客群，目前已运营超70家门店。不同新品牌的孵 化，不仅为了培养公司的二次成长曲线，同时也能形成协同效应。 投资建议 公司采取门店优化与拓展并行的策略，主品牌海底捞持续升级门店，子品牌孵化挖掘新的细分市场机 会，当前股价对应25E股息率约6%。该行预期2025-2027年公司实现归母净利润分别为44.34/48.57/53.42 亿元，给予18.06港元/股目标价，对应25年约20倍PE，较现价有23.7%的涨幅空间。 海底捞门店深耕差异化，打造特色主题店 截至25H1，公司餐厅总数量为1489家，海底捞（自营）/海底捞（加盟）/其他新品牌数量分别为 1322/41/126家。25H1，公司门店拓展采取有进有退、动态调优做法，旨在专注门店升级，打造差异化 的海底捞门店。场景端，公司打造夜宵场景、亲子互动、宠物友好等主题店型，满足现有顾客和潜在消 费者的多样化需求。 红石榴计划稳步推 ...

Core Viewpoint - The rise of "one-person dining" is reshaping the restaurant industry, prompting major players like Haidilao and Yang Guofu to enter the small hot pot market, which caters to the growing demand for individual dining experiences [4][6][12]. Group 1: Market Trends - The trend of "one-person dining" has gained significant traction, with related content on platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu receiving billions of views, indicating a strong consumer interest [6]. - The small hot pot format, characterized by individual pots, aligns well with the preferences of consumers seeking convenience and independence in their dining experiences [6][12]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Haidilao's new brand "Jugaogao" and Yang Guofu's small hot pot offerings are both priced under 60 yuan, aiming to attract a broad consumer base by emphasizing value for money [4][7]. - Despite the entry of established brands, the small hot pot market faces challenges due to high competition and a significant number of existing players, with over 50,000 small hot pot restaurants in China [12]. Group 3: Business Strategies - Haidilao has adopted a strategy of rapid brand expansion through its "Pomegranate Plan," launching multiple new brands and focusing on low-cost, high-turnover small hot pot outlets [8][9]. - Yang Guofu is also diversifying its offerings by introducing new brands and product lines, aiming to capture a wider audience and increase revenue [9][10]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly value-conscious, seeking affordable dining options, which has led to a shift in preferences from higher-priced offerings to more budget-friendly alternatives [7][12]. - The average consumer is now gravitating towards small hot pot options priced between 20 to 60 yuan, with a notable increase in the 20 to 40 yuan segment [12].

Core Insights - The rise of "one-person dining" restaurants is rapidly expanding in major urban centers like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, catering to the growing demand for solo dining experiences [5][11][25] - The "one-person dining" trend is driven by a significant increase in single-person households, with China's single population exceeding 240 million and projected to surpass 300 million soon [11][13][25] - The market for "one-person dining" is expected to reach 800 billion yuan in 2024 and exceed 1 trillion yuan by 2025, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 22% [25][32] Industry Trends - Various restaurant formats are emerging under the "one-person dining" concept, including ramen shops, barbecue restaurants, and sushi bars, often featuring private dining spaces for enhanced privacy [6][10][11] - Innovative dining experiences, such as "board-front cooking" and conveyor belt sushi, are gaining popularity, appealing to younger consumers seeking unique dining experiences [8][10][23] - The "one-person dining" model is not just about food consumption but also reflects a shift towards a more individualized and ritualistic dining experience, emphasizing personal enjoyment over social dining [17][21][30] Consumer Behavior - The demand for "one-person dining" is linked to changing social dynamics, with more young people choosing to be single and valuing personal space and autonomy in dining [18][19][30] - Consumers are increasingly willing to pay a premium for high-quality, personalized dining experiences, reflecting a trend towards "self-reward" and "no compromise" living [21][24] - Data shows that restaurants labeled as "one-person dining" have seen a 26% increase in order rates, and pre-packaged small portion meals have grown by 35% [15][25] Operational Efficiency - The "one-person dining" model allows for streamlined operations, reducing labor costs and increasing service efficiency, as seen in establishments like Ichiran Ramen, which employs self-service technology [27][29] - The average dining time in "one-person dining" venues is reportedly 30% shorter than in traditional restaurants, enabling higher customer turnover and improved profitability [29][32] Market Opportunities - The "one-person dining" market is becoming a new battleground for differentiated competition, challenging businesses to enhance operational efficiency while addressing emotional and social needs of consumers [32] - Restaurants are innovating beyond simple seating arrangements to create diverse dining environments that cater to the emotional and social needs of solo diners, such as pet-friendly spaces and 24-hour dining options [30][31]