PVC景气回暖有望提振助剂需求，这些品种已率 先开启涨价；SpaceX计划在月球电磁弹射卫星， 技术路径有望加速得到产业验证——0301脱水研 报 2026/03/01 17:58 今日研报内容： 【本文来自持牌证券机构，不代表平台观点，请独立判断和决策】 摘要： 1、PVC：乙酰丙酮从底部1.3万元/吨涨至2.0万元/吨，其他助剂品种亦有望复制乙酰丙酮盐 的价格修复路径，实现企稳回升，迎来阶段性修复机遇。核心公司：键邦股份、瑞丰高材、 日科化学、新华制药。 2、草甘膦：天风证券研报指出，2月18日，特朗普签署了一份援引《国防生产法》的行政命 令，将元素磷和草甘膦类除草剂列为国防关键物资。美国国内草甘膦供应能力有限，对我国 进口依赖度仍较高，当前国内草甘膦价格处于较低水平。标的：扬农化工、兴发集团。 3、卫星制造：国泰海通证券研报指出，马斯克旗下SpaceX公司计划在月球表面通过巨型电 磁弹射装置发射卫星，以实现100万卫星的太空AI数据中心星座组网，国内火箭技术有望加速 迭代，利好卫星制造、火箭发射等产业链。标的：臻镭科技、铂力特。 4、煤炭：交易面与基本面共振，看好煤炭板块投资机会，把握三条主线：煤炭"高 ...

Group 1 - The PVC additive products, which have been in a long-term slump, are experiencing a strong rebound due to multiple factors, with expectations for a reversal in market conditions [1] - As of September 9, the prices of acetylacetone and acetylacetone calcium have increased by 30% and 46% respectively compared to their lowest prices on June 30, indicating a significant price recovery [1] - The acetylacetone industry is undergoing dual changes of supply disruption and steady demand growth, with prices having declined since 2021, leading to some companies exiting the market [1][2] Group 2 - The global acetylacetone market was valued at approximately $338 million in 2018 and is projected to grow to $445 million by 2025, benefiting from expanding application areas [2] - Current prices of acetylacetone and acetylacetone calcium are at historical low percentiles, suggesting significant potential for price increases [2] - Key domestic producers of acetylacetone include Zhejiang Weirong, Jianbang Co., Xinhua Pharmaceutical, and Guangxi Jinyuan, while major overseas suppliers include BASF from Germany [1][2] Group 3 - Jianbang Co. has seen its stock price rise significantly, and the company is prioritizing investment in new environmental additive production projects, with completion expected by April 2028 [3] - The company has received environmental approval for its new materials production base, indicating progress in its expansion plans [3] - The PVC environmental additive industry is expected to undergo a consolidation phase, with high-cost capacities exiting the market due to price pressures [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Debang Securities indicates that the prices of acetylacetone and acetylacetone calcium have increased significantly from their recent lows, suggesting a potential rebound in the PVC environmental additives market due to supply concentration and ongoing environmental policies [1][4]. Price Trends - As of September 9, the prices for acetylacetone and acetylacetone calcium are 17,000 and 19,000 yuan per ton, respectively, marking an increase of 4,000 and 6,000 yuan per ton from their seven-year lows of 13,000 yuan per ton [1][4]. - Current prices are at historical percentiles of 11.94% and 14.86%, with potential upside of approximately 29,500 and 31,000 yuan per ton compared to their highest prices of 46,500 and 50,000 yuan per ton [1][4]. Industry Dynamics - The acetylacetone industry is experiencing supply disruptions alongside steady demand growth, with a notable decline in prices since 2021 leading to some companies exiting the market [3]. - Major domestic producers include Zhejiang Weirong, Jianbang Co., Xinhua Pharmaceutical, and Guangxi Jinyuan, while BASF is a key overseas supplier [3]. - The global acetylacetone market was valued at approximately 338 million USD in 2018 and is projected to grow to 445 million USD by 2025, driven by expanding application areas [3]. Supply and Demand Outlook - The PVC environmental additives market is expected to improve as supply becomes more concentrated and traditional stabilizers face replacement due to environmental regulations [5]. - The industry is likely to undergo a consolidation phase as high-cost capacities exit the market, leading to a potential price rebound for key products [5]. Company Focus - Companies to watch include Jianbang Co. (603285.SH) with acetylacetone salt capacity of 4,240 tons and ongoing projects, Xinhua Pharmaceutical (000756.SZ) with a capacity of 10,000 tons, and Jiaxian Co. (920489.BJ) with DBM/SBM capacities of 7,000 and 3,000 tons, respectively [5][6].