丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨基础化工 [Table_Title] 化工专题：反内卷，机会何在？ 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2024 年以来，政府会议多次提到要综合整治"内卷式"恶性竞争。2024 年 7 月，中央政治局 会议明确提出"防止'内卷式'恶性竞争"，12 月进一步升级为"综合整治'内卷式'竞争"。 最新动态来看，中央财经委第六次会议于 7 月 1 日召开，会议强调，纵深推进全国统一大市场 建设，要聚焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动落后 产能有序退出。本轮供给侧改革下，化工在国家"反内卷"政策之下，有何可为？有哪些潜在 投资机会？ 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SFC：BUT911 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 基础化工 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 化工专题：反内卷，机会何在？ 马太 徐静 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary2] 为何当前时点关注化工行业反内卷投资机会？ 2024 年以来，政府会议多次提 ...

周期视角如何看反内卷？20250721 摘要 工业品价格和整体物价水平下行，一二季度产能利用率低于过去五年历 史分位值 10%，表明供过于求局面严峻，新能源、煤炭开采、建材、化 工等行业面临严重的产能过剩问题。 供给侧改革路径选择上，短期内供给收缩成为关键。行业集中度高、国 资占比高以及具备加杠杆潜力的行业，更有可能或更快推动减产，以走 出产能过剩和物价低迷困局。 本轮周期品上涨行情的核心原因在于政策催化及供需格局触底。钢铁、 电解铝、稀土、中游机械等行业因供需紧张和政策预期，利润释放潜力 较大，值得重视。 农业化工、精细化工等行业供需格局已达底部，具备较好的长期配置价 值。钢铁、稀土、农业化工、电解铝等上游部门股票价格弹性较大，值 得关注。 有机硅、草甘膦等行业因供给端扰动或需求旺季影响，具备较好的发展 潜力和涨价机会。有机硅价格已从底部上涨约 1,000 元/吨，草甘膦正处 于南半球需求旺季。 Q&A 今年（2025 年）年初，长江证券在年度策略展望中提到反内卷问题。请问目 前的经济数据是否支持这一观点？ 从最新的数据来看，确实支持这一观点。上周发布的物价数据 PPI 同比创下多 年新低，同时二季度 GD ...

Macro Insights - The US June CPI shows partial transmission of tariffs, with core CPI rising 0.23% month-on-month, slightly below the expected 0.3% [2] - Core CPI year-on-year increased by 0.1 percentage points to 2.9%, aligning with expectations [2] - The overall CPI month-on-month rose from 0.08% in May to 0.29%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points to 2.7%, slightly above the expected 2.6% [2] Fixed Income - The bond market remains in a warm supply-demand environment despite short-term disturbances, with credit demand still increasing [3] - The central bank continues to support technology innovation bonds, with expectations of a slight compression in the yield spread of related ETFs [3] - Short-term disturbances have led to a focus on medium to short-duration investments, particularly in high-quality city investment bonds and industries with high growth potential [3] Electronics Industry - ASML's Q2 2025 performance met prior guidance, with new orders significantly increasing, although logic customer orders saw a notable decline [5] - ASML projects Q3 2025 revenue between €7.4 billion and €7.9 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 2.5% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.5% [5] - The semiconductor industry continues to see strong demand driven by AI, with expectations for domestic advanced process and storage expansion [5] Basic Chemicals - Glyphosate prices have increased by 9% year-on-year to ¥25,901 per ton, driven by seasonal demand in South America and production cuts [6] - The domestic and international planting areas are expected to rise, leading to a potential bottom reversal for glyphosate prices, benefiting leading domestic companies [6] Energy and Power Equipment - Gansu province has introduced a capacity pricing policy for power generation, which is expected to enhance the profitability of energy storage [7] - The policy sets a capacity price of ¥330 per kilowatt per year for coal power units and new energy storage, with a two-year execution period [7] - The domestic energy storage market is anticipated to see increased demand in the short, medium, and long term due to clearer profitability models [7] Construction and Engineering - The recent central urban work conference indicates a shift from rapid urbanization to stable development, focusing on quality improvement of existing urban infrastructure [8] - The construction materials industry is expected to face demand changes and supply transformation challenges as urban renewal becomes a priority [8] - Key areas of focus include pipeline renovation, architectural coatings, and infrastructure projects with quick asset recovery [8] Transportation - Airlines have maintained a high passenger load factor of 84.6%, with a year-on-year increase of 1.7 percentage points [9] - Despite limited capacity growth during the summer travel season, ticket prices have shown weakness, indicating potential challenges in revenue management [9] - The airline sector is recommended for investment, particularly in China National Aviation and Huaxia Airlines, due to expected profitability improvements [9] ETF Market - The domestic ETF market expanded by nearly ¥580 billion in the first half of 2025, reaching a total scale of ¥4.3 trillion [11] - Bond ETFs and Hong Kong stock ETFs have become major attractors of capital, with significant growth in several thematic ETFs [11] - The performance of trading-type ETFs is closely linked to market conditions, while configuration-type ETFs can achieve steady growth through continuous marketing [11]

5月27日，A股三大指数集体调整，且均录得4连跌。截至收盘，沪指跌0.18%报3340点，深成指跌0.61%，创业板指跌 0.68%下破2000点。全市场成交额10241亿元，较上日缩量97亿元；超2500只个股飘绿。 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨幅 | 涨跌 | 现价 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 000001 | 上证指数 | -0.18% | -6.15 | 3340.69 | | 399001 | 深证成指 | -0.61% | -62.05 | 10029.11 | | 399006 | 创业板指 | -0.68% | -13.62 | 1991.64 | | 000688 | 科创50 | -0.95% | -9.34 | 972.92 | 盘面上，新消费概念领涨，饮料、乳业、休闲食品等方向等方向领涨；医药股活跃，华森制药涨停；培育钻石板块走 强，黄河旋风涨停；草甘膦、CRO、代糖概念等涨幅居前。另一方面，贵金属板块走低，赤峰黄金、西部黄金领跌； 小金属板块集体调整，东方钽业跌幅居前；消费电子、PEEK材料、CPO等板块下跌。 具体来看： 草甘膦板块领涨，中 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.18%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.61%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.68% [1][2]. Sector Performance Consumer Sector - The consumer sector showed strength, particularly in the new consumption direction, with new beverage concepts seeing significant gains. Stocks such as Kweichow Moutai, Junyao Health, and Quanyangquan reached their daily limit [2]. - Within the new beverage concept, subcategories like functional drinks, probiotic drinks, yellow wine, and coconut juice are highlighted. The yellow wine concept performed strongly, with stocks like Jin Feng Jiu Ye, Gu Yue Long Shan, and Qing Fang Cheng experiencing substantial increases [2]. Pharmaceutical Sector - The pharmaceutical sector saw gains in innovative drugs and biological products, with companies like Changshan Pharmaceutical and Sanofi Genzyme experiencing significant stock price increases. Recent catalysts in the innovative drug sector are noted, with a focus on oncology, GLP-1, stem cells, and gene therapy as key areas of interest [4]. Chemical Sector - The chemical sector rallied in the afternoon, particularly in the glyphosate segment, with stocks like Zhongqi Co. and Zhongnong United reaching their daily limit. Other segments such as agricultural chemicals and chemical fibers also saw substantial increases [4]. Investment Insights - Huatai Securities indicates that the yellow wine industry has a rich heritage, with an optimized competitive landscape and upward supply-driven dynamics. The future of the yellow wine industry is expected to see a reconstruction of volume and price logic, with steady upgrades in consumption scenarios and a focus on brand cultivation by leading companies [2]. - Caitong Securities suggests focusing on three main lines in new consumption: emotional resources (pet economy, IP toys, temple economy), emotional resolution (beauty and personal care, gold and jewelry, new food and drink), and reasonable emotional release (outdoor economy, mild intoxication economy, tobacco) [3].

策略 如何看修订版"重组办法"？20250518 摘要 • 中美日内瓦会谈结果超预期，但市场呈现"sell news"走势，表明利好兑 现后资金选择离场，短期市场情绪受外部因素影响显著。 • 金融板块异常放量拉升未能持续，对市场风险偏好和赚钱效应提升作用有 限，市场结构呈现杠铃型，微盘和权重两端较强，投机性交易自我强化。 • 科创 50 指数表现疲软，受公募新规影响，市场参与者规避超配科技股， 同时阿里和腾讯财报资本开支未达预期，AI 产业进展仍待观察。 • 市场情绪指数反弹，涨停家数较多，但投资者体感赚钱效应一般，热点分 散且轮动快，缺乏明确主线，活跃资金赚钱效应出现缩圈和集中现象。 • 近期看涨方向包括抢出口订单（航运表现更优）、新消费（美护、宠物经 济）和生物原料药（麦角硫因），以及金属钨价格上涨相关标的。 • 机器人产业动态和催化因素较多，但并非板块普涨机会，市场聚焦轻量化 材料，机器人格斗大赛和中证科创创业机器人指数发布或带来增量资金。 • 重组办法正式稿提高对财务状况变化等监管包容度，建立重组股份对价分 期支付机制，鼓励私募基金参与，新设简易审核程序，利好有明确并购计 划、资金压力大、习惯并购扩张 ...

证券研究报告 2025 年 4 月 28 日 星期一 【A 股市场大势研判】 大盘冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一 市场表现： | 指数名称 | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | 涨跌 | 上证指数分时图 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 上证指数 | 3295.06 | -0.07% | -2.23 | | | 深证成指 | 9917.06 | 0.39% | 38.74 | | | 沪深 300 | 3786.99 | 0.07% | 2.64 | | | 创业板 | 1947.19 | 0.59% | 11.33 | | | 科创 50 | 1004.57 | 0.13% | 1.26 | | | 北证 50 | 1300.19 | -1.11% | -14.54 | | 资料来源：东莞证券研究所，iFinD 数据 板块排名： 周五，市场全天冲高回落，三大指数涨跌不一。早盘三大指数集体高开后有所分化， 沪指全天小幅震荡，3300 点得而复失，深成指、创业板指冲高回落表现偏强。截至收盘， 三大指数涨跌不一，创业板指领涨。盘面上，电力股集体大涨，算力股展开反弹，统一大 市场概念股一度 ...