Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, particularly through the coal ETF (515220) which has a current scale of nearly 13 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the coal sector generated revenue of 297.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.1% [2]. - The domestic coal production growth rate is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with coal output declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September. Additionally, coal imports have also been decreasing, with September imports down 23% year-on-year and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [2]. Group 2: Price Expectations and Market Conditions - The supply side remains constrained, with strong expectations for price increases in Q4 due to safety production assessments and uncertainties regarding coal imports from Mongolia. The coal supply is expected to contract further, especially with ongoing safety inspections [3]. - As of October 31, the price of thermal coal at the northern ports was reported at 770 yuan per ton. If prices exceed 850 yuan per ton, it could squeeze the profit margins of power plants. However, if a cold winter materializes, a supply gap may emerge, allowing for upward price elasticity in coal [3]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal has been largely implemented, with strong expectations for a third round. Despite some short-term impacts from maintenance at certain steel mills, overall demand for coking coal remains robust [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, with a scale nearing 13 billion yuan. It tracks the CSI Coal Index, which has a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months. In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the ETF presents significant investment value [4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market has shown overall improvement since the third quarter, with strong performance post-National Day due to better-than-expected demand and a general decline in supply [1] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - Demand for thermal coal has exceeded expectations despite entering the off-season in October, while supply has decreased, leading to a strong performance in coal prices [1] - As winter approaches, heating demand in northern regions is gradually increasing, and inventory levels remain low, which is expected to provide strong support for coal prices [1] - Stringent safety regulations towards the end of the year are likely to limit supply growth, suggesting that coal prices may continue to remain stable to strong [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Outlook - Although November marks the beginning of the off-season for coking coal, inventory levels are low and supply may decline, coupled with increased winter storage demand, which could lead to a slight increase in spot prices [1] - The overall coal production is expected to face challenges in significant growth due to strict safety and overproduction management in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a scale of nearly 13 billion, and the coal sector offers a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months as of September 30 [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradually accumulating positions to capture investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced significant gains on the 23rd, with companies like Shanxi Heimao, Yunmei Energy, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, Dayou Energy, and Liaoning Energy hitting the daily limit, and Dayou Energy achieving nearly 150% increase over the last 10 trading days [1] - A "rapid freeze" is expected to hit China from north to south, prompting early winter storage and a dual demand for coal supply, particularly in northern regions [1] - Supply constraints are expected to tighten due to continuous autumn rains in major coal-producing areas and increased regulatory scrutiny ahead of the November safety production assessments [1] Group 2 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized "stabilizing electricity prices" alongside "stabilizing coal prices" in its discussions, aiming to resist "involution-style" competition [2] - Shanxi Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal sector for the fourth quarter, predicting better performance compared to the third quarter and highlighting the sector's value for allocation [2] - The overall valuation of the coal sector is currently low, and there is potential for a rebound as market sentiment shifts, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in elastic varieties of coal [2]

Group 1 - The overall supply and demand for coal has improved since the third quarter, with strong market performance post-National Day due to better-than-expected demand and a general decline in supply [1] - Coal prices are expected to remain strong in the fourth quarter due to low inventory levels across various segments and stricter safety and production management [1] - The daily coal consumption of southern power plants has remained at a high level post-National Day, while winter storage demand in northern regions is gradually increasing, contributing to rising coal prices [1] Group 2 - Coking coal prices have increased by 50-70 yuan per ton in October across various regions, with stable demand and year-on-year growth [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), offers a high dividend yield of over 5.3% as of September 30, highlighting its investment value in a declining risk-free interest rate environment [1] - Investors are encouraged to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - A significant cold wave has swept across northern China, leading to a temperature drop of over 10°C in regions such as North China and Northeast China, prompting heating measures and increased coal demand [1] Group 1: Weather Impact - The cold wave is expected to bring the lowest temperatures of the year to cities like Harbin, Changchun, and Shenyang, with maximum temperatures dropping to single digits [1] - The main cooling period is identified between the 15th and 19th of the month [1] Group 2: Coal Market Dynamics - The coal market is responding to the increased demand for heating, with winter coal storage operations commencing [1] - Annual long-term contract prices for different grades of thermal coal (Q5500, Q5000, Q4500) have increased by 2 yuan per ton compared to the previous month, with prices at 676 yuan/ton, 615 yuan/ton, and 553 yuan/ton respectively [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The only coal ETF in the market, Coal ETF (515220), tracks the China Securities Coal Index (399998) and offers a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal sector is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation of Coal ETF (515220) to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector has shown a rise, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.81 percentage points, with a weekly increase of 4.3% as of October 10, 2025 [2] - The report anticipates that winter coal prices could reach 800 RMB/ton, with expectations of price increases during the heating season [6][25] - The supply-demand balance is expected to gradually improve in the fourth quarter, leading to a steady rise in coal prices [6][25] Supply Side Summary - Key monitored enterprises reported an average daily coal sales volume of 6.55 million tons from October 3 to October 9, 2025, a week-on-week decrease of 13% and a year-on-year decrease of 13.6% [2] - The average daily coal production from key monitored enterprises was 6.74 million tons, with a week-on-week decrease of 100% [2] - Total coal inventory (including port storage) reached 25.36 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 9% [2][23] Demand Side Summary - Cumulative coal consumption in the power and chemical industries has decreased by 2.9% and increased by 15.4% year-on-year, respectively [2] - Iron and steel production has seen a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [2] Price Summary - The price of thermal coal (Q5500K) in the Bohai Rim was 677 RMB/ton, with a week-on-week increase of 0.15% [3] - The price of coking coal at major ports remained stable, while the price of metallurgical coke increased by 3.18% [4] - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rise, particularly during the heating season [6][25] Sentiment Summary - The report highlights that the current coal asset dividends are reasonable, with a positive fundamental outlook [6][25] - The report suggests focusing on flexible thermal coal companies and coking coal companies undergoing turnaround [6][25]

Core Viewpoint - The coal industry has reached a bottom in its fundamentals, with a decrease in volume but an increase in price during the third quarter, leading to improved performance compared to previous quarters [1]. Industry Summary - In July and August, national coal production decreased year-on-year, while coal prices rebounded from their lows. The spot prices for thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite increased by 7.3%, 16.0%, and 3.6% respectively on a quarter-on-quarter basis, although they still fell by 12.6%, 17.2%, and 11.7% year-on-year [1]. - On the demand side, coal consumption in the power industry decreased by 3% year-on-year, while coal consumption in the chemical industry increased by 15.8% [1]. - In terms of inventory, the total coal inventory of key monitored enterprises decreased by 15.6% year-on-year, and cumulative sales on the supply side fell by 2.3% year-on-year [1]. - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, with the peak season approaching, supply and demand are expected to gradually balance, and coal prices are anticipated to rise steadily, with thermal coal, coking coal, and anthracite prices expected to increase on a quarter-on-quarter basis [1]. Company Summary - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), is the only coal ETF in the market. The coal sector has a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months as of September 30. In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of this ETF is highlighted. It is suggested to consider gradually accumulating positions in the coal ETF (515220) to seize investment opportunities in the coal sector [1].

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a counter-trend rise, with the only coal ETF (515220) increasing by over 2%, and net inflows exceeding 1.2 billion in the past 20 trading days, bringing the total scale to over 10.8 billion [1] - In August, the output of raw coal declined for two consecutive months, with a production of 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the average daily output was 12.6 million tons [3] - Coal imports in August were 42.73 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while the cumulative imports from January to August were 299.94 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - Electricity demand in August grew by 1.7%, with industrial power generation reaching 936.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [8] - The coal supply-demand situation indicates that inventory reconstruction demand is ongoing, with strong resilience in actual demand for coking coal despite supply disruptions [9] - The coal sector has seen significant declines this year, but the healthy chip structure and low institutional holdings present new investment opportunities, particularly in coal ETF (515220) [9]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a midday surge, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, driven by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicating a mixed outlook for coal production [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 4.41% to HKD 9.94, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) increased by 4.01% to HKD 10.38, China Shenhua Energy (01088) gained 1.9% to HKD 38.64, and Power Development (01277) went up by 1.57% to HKD 1.29 [1] - The coal sector has seen a significant cumulative decline this year, with institutional holdings remaining low and a healthy chip structure, indicating potential for new investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Production Data - In August, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [1] - From January to August, the total output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guosheng Securities forecasts that, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, the total output of thermal coal in 2025 is expected to reach approximately 3.88 billion tons, with a further slowdown in growth to around 1.4% [1] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the seasonal decline in coal prices has likely reached a bottom, and the upcoming demand for non-electric coal during peak winter usage is expected to catalyze further price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a midday surge, with notable increases in share prices for major companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, driven by recent production data and market sentiment [1] Industry Summary - In August, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 390 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, although the decrease narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [1] - From January to August, the total output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - Looking ahead to 2025, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, coal production is expected to continue growing, potentially reaching around 3.88 billion tons, with a further slowdown in growth rate to approximately 1.4% [1] Company Summary - Guosen Securities noted that the coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings remaining low and a healthy chip structure, indicating that trading is not overcrowded [1] - The report from Zhongtai Securities highlighted that the seasonal decline in coal prices appears to have stabilized, and the demand for non-electric coal during peak winter months is expected to drive prices higher [1] - Despite short-term pressures from disappointing mid-year performance and the influence of technology sector trends, the coal sector presents new investment opportunities, suggesting a proactive approach to coal investments [1]