供需边际改善预期较强，煤价企稳向好有望延续 煤炭 证券研究报告/行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 10 日 执业证书编号：S0740522040001 Email：duchong@zts.com.cn | 基本状况 | | | --- | --- | | 上市公司数 | 37 | | 行业总市值(亿元) | 19,759.72 | | 行业流通市值(亿元) | 19,274.91 | 2026-01-04 2025-12-27 华千亿收购提升价值》2025-12-20 | 增持（维持） 评级： | | | 重点公司基本状况 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 简称 | 股价 | | | EPS | | | | | PE | | | 评级 | | 分析师：杜冲 | | | （元） | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2023A | 2024A | 2025 ...

行 煤炭 2025 年 12 月 14 日 业 研 究 煤炭 高库存下煤价继续承压，11 月进口煤同比-19.9% 投资要点： 动力煤 行 业 定 期 报 告 截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日，秦港 5500K 动力末煤平仓价 745 元/吨， 周环比-40 元/吨，内蒙产地价大跌、山西产地价小跌、陕西产地价微 跌。截至 2025 年 12 月 12 日动力煤 462 家样本矿山日均产量为 557.1 万吨，环比+5.9 万吨，年同比-5.6%。本周电厂日耗微涨，电厂库存小 跌，秦港库存大涨，截至 12 月 8 日，动力煤库存指数为 212（+10.7）。 非电方面，甲醇、尿素开工率分别为 89.8%（+0.7pct）和 81.9% （+0.02pct），仍处于历史同期偏高水平。 焦煤 截至 12 月 12 日，京唐港主焦煤库提价 1630 元/吨，周环比持平， 山西、河南、安徽产地价格持平。截至 12 月 12 日，523 家样本矿山精 煤日均产量 75 万吨（-0.4 万吨），年同比-6.6%，532 家精煤库存 255 万吨（+8.3 万吨），年同比-24.3%；日均铁水产量 229.1 万吨（- ...

随着美国国内煤炭消费爆发式增长，美国煤炭出口预计趋缓，全球海运动力煤贸易或将步入紧平衡格 局，建议重点关注具备区位与成本优势的国内煤企。 中泰证券（600918）发布研报称，交易面与基本面共振，煤炭或迎来新周期，看好2026年煤炭板块投资 机会，投资方面建议把握三条主线。基于中长期资金持续入市，煤炭"高股息、低估值"投资价值进一步 凸显，积极配置红利属性较强的标的；基于企业自身产能增长逻辑，叠加盈利弹性较大，重点关注α与 β共振的有望受益；基于煤价见底、盈利改善，重点关注困境反转的炼焦煤有望受益。 煤炭相关产业链港股： 中煤能源（601898）(01898)、兖矿能源（600188）(01171)、中国神华（601088）(01088)、兖煤澳大利 亚(03668)、中国秦发(00866)等。 10月节后煤价超预期上涨。 节后煤炭供应方面反内卷带动的收缩预期延续，边际因素在于产地降雨和大秦线检修，进口煤或受到蒙 古国政治因素影响环比有所下降。市场则担心四季度供应继续收缩。而价格超预期上涨的主要变量在需 求端，一方面下游电厂采购积极性提升，秦港船舶锚地数提升带动货船比下降，港口持续去库，另一方 面，下游用电量快 ...

智通财经APP获悉，10月节后煤价超预期上涨。 节后煤炭供应方面反内卷带动的收缩预期延续，边际因素在于产地降雨和大秦线检修，进口煤或受到蒙 古国政治因素影响环比有所下降。市场则担心四季度供应继续收缩。而价格超预期上涨的主要变量在需 求端，一方面下游电厂采购积极性提升，秦港船舶锚地数提升带动货船比下降，港口持续去库，另一方 面，下游用电量快速拉升，因此价格加速上涨。 国盛证券发布研报，根据EIA预测，2025年美国煤炭消费量预计为4.39亿吨，同比上涨6.7%，此外，美 国电厂存煤能力进一步下滑，2025年底美国燃煤电厂煤炭库存预计将下降至1.07亿短吨水平，低库存叠 加爆发性需求增速，以及持续产量下降的供给刚性，有望带动美国煤炭市场及煤价迎来历史性反转机 会。 随着美国国内煤炭消费爆发式增长，美国煤炭出口预计趋缓，全球海运动力煤贸易或将步入紧平衡格 局，建议重点关注具备区位与成本优势的国内煤企。 中泰证券发布研报称，交易面与基本面共振，煤炭或迎来新周期，看好2026年煤炭板块投资机会，投资 方面建议把握三条主线。基于中长期资金持续入市，煤炭"高股息、低估值"投资价值进一步凸显，积极 配置红利属性较强的标的；基 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中泰证券发布研报称，交易面与基本面共振，煤炭或迎来新周期，看好2026年煤炭 板块投资机会，投资方面建议把握三条主线。基于中长期资金持续入市，煤炭"高股息、低估值"投资价 值进一步凸显，积极配置红利属性较强的标的；基于企业自身产能增长逻辑，叠加盈利弹性较大，重点 关注α与β共振的有望受益；基于煤价见底、盈利改善，重点关注困境反转的炼焦煤有望受益。 中泰证券主要观点如下： 价格复盘：前低后高，震荡走强。 2025年1-11月煤炭价格同比下降明显，但在6月价格筑底后迎来一轮上涨，整体呈现前低后高趋势。现 货价格：动力煤价格中枢(Q5500)695元/吨，同比下降19%；炼焦煤价格中枢1497元/吨，同比下降 28%。长协价格：秦皇岛Q5500价格678元/吨，同比下降3%；河南主焦煤价格1546元/吨，同比下降 27%。伴随2025年下半年供需边际改善，炼焦煤价格在季节性波动中震荡走强。 展望后市：供需改善可持续，价格中枢将抬升。 供给端："预核增产能"退出，供给收缩预期强化。 三)运力限制与疆煤外运规模增长疲态已现。2025年新疆铁路部门通过优先保证运力、设计多式联运路 径、提高运到时限、降 ...

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 全市场唯一煤炭ETF（515220）连续3日迎净流入，煤价延续稳中偏强走势 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 广发证券指出，四季度以来煤炭煤价上涨超预期，一方面由于需求好于预期，另一方面供给端总体 回落。10月火电发电量同比增速达7.3%，而国内原煤产量同比下降2.3%，煤炭进口量同环比均下降9% 左右，供需格局持续改善。各环节库存仍低于去年同期，11月下旬开始季节性需求进一步提升，预计年 末及2026年煤价总体延续稳中偏强走势。 每日经济新闻 作为市场唯一一 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coal prices have risen unexpectedly since the fourth quarter due to better-than-expected demand and a general decline in supply, with forecasts indicating a stable to strong price trend through the end of the year and into 2026 [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In October, the electricity generation from thermal power plants increased by 7.3% year-on-year, while domestic raw coal production decreased by 2.3% year-on-year [1] - Coal imports have declined by approximately 9% both month-on-month and year-on-year, leading to an improved supply-demand balance [1] - Inventory levels across various segments remain lower than the same period last year, with seasonal demand expected to rise starting late November [1] Price Trends - The demand for thermal coal has exceeded expectations since October, coupled with a decline in supply, resulting in significant price increases [1] - The winter storage demand and strict safety regulations in production areas are expected to support prices, maintaining a stable to strong outlook [1] - For coking coal, despite entering a low-demand season, the rigid production of pig iron and historically low coal mine inventories will support prices, with stability anticipated [1] Investment Opportunities - The coal sector currently shows significant valuation and dividend yield advantages, with leading companies offering dividend yields generally between 4% and 5% [1] - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a scale exceeding 10 billion, and the coal sector's dividend yield has surpassed 5.3% over the past 12 months [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradual accumulation to capitalize on investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - The coal sector is experiencing an improved supply-demand balance, presenting investment opportunities in the fourth quarter, particularly through the coal ETF (515220) which has a current scale of nearly 13 billion yuan [1][4]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In Q3 2025, the coal sector generated revenue of 297.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 16.5% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.5%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 27.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 30.3% but a significant quarter-on-quarter improvement of 14.1% [2]. - The domestic coal production growth rate is gradually slowing due to safety regulations and overproduction checks, with coal output declining year-on-year for three consecutive months from July to September. Additionally, coal imports have also been decreasing, with September imports down 23% year-on-year and a cumulative decline of 11.1% from January to September [2]. Group 2: Price Expectations and Market Conditions - The supply side remains constrained, with strong expectations for price increases in Q4 due to safety production assessments and uncertainties regarding coal imports from Mongolia. The coal supply is expected to contract further, especially with ongoing safety inspections [3]. - As of October 31, the price of thermal coal at the northern ports was reported at 770 yuan per ton. If prices exceed 850 yuan per ton, it could squeeze the profit margins of power plants. However, if a cold winter materializes, a supply gap may emerge, allowing for upward price elasticity in coal [3]. - The second round of price increases for coking coal has been largely implemented, with strong expectations for a third round. Despite some short-term impacts from maintenance at certain steel mills, overall demand for coking coal remains robust [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220) is the only coal ETF in the market, with a scale nearing 13 billion yuan. It tracks the CSI Coal Index, which has a dividend yield exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months. In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the ETF presents significant investment value [4].

Core Viewpoint - The coal market has shown overall improvement since the third quarter, with strong performance post-National Day due to better-than-expected demand and a general decline in supply [1] Group 1: Coal Market Dynamics - Demand for thermal coal has exceeded expectations despite entering the off-season in October, while supply has decreased, leading to a strong performance in coal prices [1] - As winter approaches, heating demand in northern regions is gradually increasing, and inventory levels remain low, which is expected to provide strong support for coal prices [1] - Stringent safety regulations towards the end of the year are likely to limit supply growth, suggesting that coal prices may continue to remain stable to strong [1] Group 2: Coking Coal Outlook - Although November marks the beginning of the off-season for coking coal, inventory levels are low and supply may decline, coupled with increased winter storage demand, which could lead to a slight increase in spot prices [1] - The overall coal production is expected to face challenges in significant growth due to strict safety and overproduction management in the fourth quarter [1] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - The coal ETF (515220), which tracks the CSI Coal Index (399998), has a scale of nearly 13 billion, and the coal sector offers a high dividend yield, exceeding 5.3% over the past 12 months as of September 30 [1] - In the context of declining risk-free interest rates, the investment value of the coal ETF (515220) is highlighted, suggesting a strategy of gradually accumulating positions to capture investment opportunities in the coal sector [1]

Group 1 - The coal sector experienced significant gains on the 23rd, with companies like Shanxi Heimao, Yunmei Energy, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, Dayou Energy, and Liaoning Energy hitting the daily limit, and Dayou Energy achieving nearly 150% increase over the last 10 trading days [1] - A "rapid freeze" is expected to hit China from north to south, prompting early winter storage and a dual demand for coal supply, particularly in northern regions [1] - Supply constraints are expected to tighten due to continuous autumn rains in major coal-producing areas and increased regulatory scrutiny ahead of the November safety production assessments [1] Group 2 - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) emphasized "stabilizing electricity prices" alongside "stabilizing coal prices" in its discussions, aiming to resist "involution-style" competition [2] - Shanxi Securities is optimistic about investment opportunities in the coal sector for the fourth quarter, predicting better performance compared to the third quarter and highlighting the sector's value for allocation [2] - The overall valuation of the coal sector is currently low, and there is potential for a rebound as market sentiment shifts, suggesting that investors should consider increasing their positions in elastic varieties of coal [2]