（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 浙商证券指出，煤炭行业基本面触底，三季度呈现量减价升态势，业绩环比改善。7-8月全国煤炭产量 同比下降，但煤炭价格探底回升，动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤现货价格环比分别上涨7.3%、16.0%、 3.6%，同比仍下降12.6%、17.2%、11.7%。需求端，电力行业耗煤同比减少3%，化工行业耗煤同比增 加15.8%。库存方面，重点监测企业煤炭库存总量同比减少15.6%，供给端累计销量同比下降2.3%。展 望四季度，随着旺季来临，供需有望逐步平衡，煤价预计稳步上行，动力煤、炼焦煤、无烟煤价格均有 望环比上涨。 作为市场唯一一只煤炭ETF，煤炭ETF（515220）跟踪中证煤炭指数（399998），煤炭板块股息率较 高，截至9月30日，近12个月股息率超5.3%，在无风险利率下行的背景下配置价值凸显。可考虑逢低分 批布局煤炭ETF（515220）把握煤炭板块投资机会。 ...

Group 1 - The coal sector is experiencing a counter-trend rise, with the only coal ETF (515220) increasing by over 2%, and net inflows exceeding 1.2 billion in the past 20 trading days, bringing the total scale to over 10.8 billion [1] - In August, the output of raw coal declined for two consecutive months, with a production of 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, while the average daily output was 12.6 million tons [3] - Coal imports in August were 42.73 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.8%, while the cumulative imports from January to August were 299.94 million tons, down 12.2% year-on-year [6] Group 2 - Electricity demand in August grew by 1.7%, with industrial power generation reaching 936.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 1.6% [8] - The coal supply-demand situation indicates that inventory reconstruction demand is ongoing, with strong resilience in actual demand for coking coal despite supply disruptions [9] - The coal sector has seen significant declines this year, but the healthy chip structure and low institutional holdings present new investment opportunities, particularly in coal ETF (515220) [9]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a midday surge, with notable increases in share prices for companies such as China Coal Energy, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Shenhua Energy, driven by recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics indicating a mixed outlook for coal production [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of the report, China Coal Energy (01898) rose by 4.41% to HKD 9.94, Yanzhou Coal Mining (01171) increased by 4.01% to HKD 10.38, China Shenhua Energy (01088) gained 1.9% to HKD 38.64, and Power Development (01277) went up by 1.57% to HKD 1.29 [1] - The coal sector has seen a significant cumulative decline this year, with institutional holdings remaining low and a healthy chip structure, indicating potential for new investment opportunities [1] Group 2: Production Data - In August, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 390 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.2%, but the decline narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [1] - From January to August, the total output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Guosheng Securities forecasts that, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, the total output of thermal coal in 2025 is expected to reach approximately 3.88 billion tons, with a further slowdown in growth to around 1.4% [1] - Zhongtai Securities suggests that the seasonal decline in coal prices has likely reached a bottom, and the upcoming demand for non-electric coal during peak winter usage is expected to catalyze further price increases [1]

Core Viewpoint - Coal stocks experienced a midday surge, with notable increases in share prices for major companies such as China Coal Energy and Yanzhou Coal Mining, driven by recent production data and market sentiment [1] Industry Summary - In August, the output of industrial raw coal from large-scale enterprises was 390 million tons, representing a year-on-year decline of 3.2%, although the decrease narrowed by 0.6 percentage points compared to July [1] - From January to August, the total output of industrial raw coal reached 3.17 billion tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 2.8% [1] - Looking ahead to 2025, without considering the impact of "anti-involution" on production, coal production is expected to continue growing, potentially reaching around 3.88 billion tons, with a further slowdown in growth rate to approximately 1.4% [1] Company Summary - Guosen Securities noted that the coal sector has seen significant declines this year, with institutional holdings remaining low and a healthy chip structure, indicating that trading is not overcrowded [1] - The report from Zhongtai Securities highlighted that the seasonal decline in coal prices appears to have stabilized, and the demand for non-electric coal during peak winter months is expected to drive prices higher [1] - Despite short-term pressures from disappointing mid-year performance and the influence of technology sector trends, the coal sector presents new investment opportunities, suggesting a proactive approach to coal investments [1]

Group 1 - The coal market is operating steadily with a slight upward trend, primarily influenced by rainfall affecting production in open-pit coal mines and leading to supply tightening in production areas [1] - Rainfall has also caused transportation disruptions, resulting in low port inflow and continuous inventory decline, making quality resources scarce in the market [1] - Stable terminal demand and recent price increases by large groups, along with declining inventory at northern ports, have boosted market confidence, leading to increased purchasing enthusiasm among traders [1] Group 2 - The coal sector possesses both cyclical and dividend attributes, with current low coal holdings indicating that the fundamentals may have reached a turning point, suggesting it could be a good time for investment [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant inflow of funds into the coal ETF (515220), which has seen over 370 million yuan in net inflows for 10 consecutive days, indicating a strong investment opportunity in the coal sector [1] - The Ministry of Ecology and Environment released the "2024 China Ecological Environment Status Bulletin," indicating that the total primary energy production in 2024 is projected to be 4.98 billion tons of standard coal, a 4.6% increase from 2023 [1] - Energy consumption in 2024 is expected to reach 5.96 billion tons of standard coal, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.3%, with coal consumption increasing by 1.7% [1] Group 2 - The share of coal consumption in total energy consumption is projected to be 53.2% in 2024, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points compared to 2023, while the share of clean energy sources has risen to 28.6%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points [1] - The coal ETF (code: 515220) tracks the CSI Coal Index (code: 399998), which is designed to reflect the overall performance of listed companies involved in coal mining, processing, and sales [1] - The CSI Coal Index is characterized by its clear industry features and cyclicality, effectively representing the operational trends of the coal sector in the capital market [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump is committed to ensuring that coal investments will not be overturned by future presidents [1] Group 1 - The administration aims to provide stability and confidence for investors in the coal industry [1] - There is a focus on maintaining and promoting coal as a viable energy source in the U.S. [1] - The statement reflects a broader strategy to support traditional energy sectors amidst a shift towards renewable energy [1]