智通财经APP获悉，摩根大通发布研报称，香港交易所(00388)公布2025年第四季净利润43亿港元，按季 下跌12%，同比增长15%，较该行预期高出19%。该行预期股价将走强，维持对港交所的"增持"评级， 目标价540港元。 2025财年全年纯利178亿港元，同比升36%，较市场预期高2%。业绩优于预期主要受收入带动。交易及 结算费收入按季跌幅(-14%/-16%)较该行预期温和，尽管成交量呈季节性疲弱(现货股票日均成交额按季 跌21%)。此等收入抵销了表现逊于预期的托管费及市场数据费。盈利受惠于非上市股权投资估值录得 1.63亿港元非经常性收益，以及港交所企业资金回报提升，足以抵销自去年10月起向市场参与者调整旗 下结算所向其参与者支付的现金抵押品利息的计算方法，并下调对非现金抵押品的融通费用的影响。上 述因素带动净投资收益表现强劲(12亿港元，按季升20%)，成为业绩优于预期的主要原因。值得留意的 是，即使撇除1.63亿港元收益，除税前利润50亿港元仍录得同比16%增长，较该行预测高出15%。成本 管控符合预期，总开支同比增加7%。 摩通表示，这是港交所表现强劲的一季，尽管第四季成交量转弱，盈利仍能保持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8] Core Insights - The company reported a total revenue of HKD 21.85 billion for the first nine months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 37%. The main revenue reached HKD 20.44 billion, up 41% year-on-year, while net profit was HKD 13.42 billion, reflecting a 45% increase year-on-year [6][8] - The report highlights strong trading and settlement fee income driven by active market transactions, while investment income showed a temporary decline [2][8] - The report anticipates continued active trading in the Hong Kong stock market, supported by the return of quality Chinese assets and the extension of connectivity between mainland China and Hong Kong [8] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - The company’s projected financials for 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - Revenue: HKD 20.52 billion (2023), HKD 22.37 billion (2024), HKD 28.27 billion (2025E), HKD 31.43 billion (2026E), HKD 32.44 billion (2027E) - Net profit: HKD 11.86 billion (2023), HKD 13.05 billion (2024), HKD 17.73 billion (2025E), HKD 19.76 billion (2026E), HKD 20.76 billion (2027E) - Earnings per share: HKD 9.36 (2023), HKD 10.29 (2024), HKD 13.98 (2025E), HKD 15.58 (2026E), HKD 16.37 (2027E) [7][9] - The report indicates a significant increase in trading fees and settlement fees, with trading fees reaching HKD 7.81 billion (39% of total revenue) and settlement fees at HKD 5.27 billion (26% of total revenue) for the first nine months of 2025 [8][9] Market Performance - The report notes that the Hong Kong stock market's IPO fundraising reached HKD 188.3 billion in the first nine months of 2025, which is more than three times the amount from the same period last year [8] - The average daily trading (ADT) for Hong Kong stocks was HKD 2.387 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 132%, with a record high of HKD 2.679 trillion in the third quarter of 2025 [8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (00388) has simplified trading and settlement fees, and the Securities and Futures Commission has recently expanded the holding limits for derivative products, indicating a step towards simplifying the platform and enhancing capital efficiency for market participants [1] - The firm has raised its earnings per share forecasts for Hong Kong Exchanges for this year, next year, and 2027 by 2%, 3%, and 4% respectively, and increased the target price from HKD 509 to HKD 524, which corresponds to a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 40 times for next year [1] - The firm predicts a downward adjustment in the expected yield from Hong Kong's margin balances to 1.97%, 1.39%, and 1.42% for this year, next year, and 2027 respectively, with average daily sales expected to be HKD 249 billion, HKD 275 billion, and HKD 299 billion for the respective years [1]