乐观者认为京东今年所为属于"重新支棱起来"，集团上下重新唤起进取心，好像回到创业公司氛围，常言道不怕企业 有新闻，就怕管理层没动静； 反方则认为京东所进军均属于"红海市场"，虽然短期内热火朝天，但受限于资金规模（决定竞争"火力"）和基石电商 业务所面临的压力，会限制其突出重围的概率。 借京东2025年Q3发布，我们来试着重新审视京东，本文核心观点： 其一，外卖确实是大手笔，但从经济账和生态账上都未能见效，外卖提升电商贡献寥寥，这是管理层需要反思的； 其二，京东电商营利性改善源自采销团队的"控价能力"，但也需要反思若供应链关系持续恶化的代价。 外卖没有反哺电商 外卖业务推出之前，市场普遍认为京东电商处于腹背受敌的境地，一方面拼多多为代表新型电商模式仍处于快速增长 周期，尤其在下沉市场"截胡"京东为代表的老牌电商企业，另一方面直播电商已成规模，也正在抢走货架电商的风 头。 当外界为京东捏把汗时，管理层终于在2025年初祭出"杀手锏"：进军外卖。此举不仅可以提高京东的增长天花板，也 可以让高频业务带动低频的电商业务，以此来充盈京东平台总流量（刘强东也曾表示过投流买量不如做外卖补贴用 户）。 2025年Q3京东新业务 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company experienced significant revenue acceleration in Q2 2025, driven by high-frequency food delivery, which boosted both the main site and logistics business, but profits were notably impacted by increased food delivery subsidies [1] Group 1: Revenue and Growth - In Q2 2025, the company achieved product revenue of 282.41 billion yuan, with the electronics category contributing 178.98 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 23.4%, surpassing the Bloomberg forecast of 15.2% [2] - The daily essentials category generated 103.43 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.4%, also exceeding the Bloomberg expectation of 13.9% [2] - The company’s quarterly active consumers (QAC) and purchase frequency both grew by over 40% in Q2 [2] Group 2: Logistics Performance - The logistics segment reported revenue of 51.56 billion yuan in Q2 2025, marking a year-on-year increase of 16.6%, which was above the Bloomberg forecast of 12.1% [2] - The logistics business accelerated due to increased demand from food delivery services [2] Group 3: Profitability and Losses - The adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 was 7.39 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 48.9%, primarily due to increased losses in the food delivery segment [3] - The company’s new business incurred losses of 14.78 billion yuan in Q2, significantly higher than the Bloomberg expectation of 10.66 billion yuan [3] - It is anticipated that food delivery losses will exceed those of Q2 in Q3, but a reduction in subsidies due to intensified competition from Alibaba may alleviate some profit pressure in Q4 and into the next year [3] Group 4: Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 have been revised to 1,327.6 billion yuan, 1,396.7 billion yuan, and 1,464.2 billion yuan, respectively, up from previous estimates [4] - Adjusted net profit projections for the same period are now 22.8 billion yuan, 43.6 billion yuan, and 52.0 billion yuan, slightly adjusted from earlier forecasts [4] - The target market value for the company is estimated at 542.1 billion yuan, translating to a target share price of 186.37 HKD, maintaining a "buy" rating [4]