（资料图，Reuters） 竹内弘文：放飞观测气球，观察谈判对手和市场的反应，寻找妥协点，这是特朗普式的谈判术。不过， 由于特朗普很少将强硬政策贯彻到底，英国《金融时报》评论员称之为"TACO（特朗普总是临阵退 缩）"。这次对中国又是这样…… "无需担心中国。一切都会好起来的"，"备受尊敬的习近平主席现在只是状况不太好而已。他不希望自 己的国家经济不景气，我也不希望"，特朗普 12 日在自己的社交媒体上发帖。 竹内弘文： 10月13日的美国股市快速反弹，道琼斯工业平均指数比上周末上涨587点（1.3%），以4万 6067点收盘。10月10日美国总统特朗普暗示对中国大幅提高关税的可能性，导致股价暴跌，但随后转而 表示乐观，吸引了空头回补。 13日是美国的假期，美国债券和外汇市场休市。美国股市与往常一样进行交易，但参与者也有限。虽然 并非道琼斯指数的成分股，但半导体大型企业博通一度上涨11%。与美国OpenAI一起宣布了人工智能 （AI）半导体的联合开发，引发了关注。 而在10日的长篇贴文中，反对中国限制稀土类出口，表示不满称"中国变得极度敌对"，表示"正在讨论 大幅提高关税"，刚刚摆出不惜升级中美贸易战的姿态。 ...

Group 1 - Global stock markets have shown resilience amid tensions in the Middle East, with a total market capitalization decrease of only 1% as of June 23 compared to the day before Israel's attack on Iran [1] - Funds have shifted towards high-tech and financial stocks, which are less affected by Middle Eastern risks, supporting overall market performance [1][2] - The total global stock market capitalization was $127.2 trillion on June 23, down from a record high of $128.7 trillion on June 12, indicating a minimal decrease of 1.6% [1] Group 2 - Investors have been cautious about over-reducing stock holdings to avoid missing potential rebounds after the conflict, leading to a focus on defense-related stocks and sectors less impacted by the situation [2] - Notable stock performance includes AMD, which saw a 9% increase in share price by June 23, following the launch of new AI chips [2] - Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have had their target prices raised by 2-4% due to expected recovery in M&A and underwriting activities [3] Group 3 - Chinese bank stocks have also performed well, supported by regulatory changes allowing insurance companies to increase stock investments [3] - Defensive stocks like Nestlé and McDonald's have declined, as rising costs from tariffs may hinder their appeal as safe investments [4] Group 4 - A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was announced, increasing the likelihood of a quick resolution to the conflict, although uncertainties remain regarding the impact of U.S. actions on Iran's nuclear capabilities [5]