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瑞银财富:明年上半年美联储将减息50点 料金价升至4500美元
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-26 13:04
Group 1 - UBS Wealth Management's Director of Investment Office, Dominic Schnider, anticipates accelerated global economic growth next year, leading to a favorable outlook for commodities, particularly energy and grains, which are currently seen as undervalued [1] - Despite the positive outlook for commodities, gold prices have surged and are expected to remain a key investment, with projections of approximately $4,500 per ounce next year, potentially dropping to $4,300 by Q4 [1] - The impact of previous central bank rate cuts is expected to manifest gradually next year, especially in Europe, with an overall improvement in economic conditions anticipated [1] Group 2 - The dollar is expected to experience a modest decline next year, but optimism may return as policy rates approach neutral levels, stabilizing in the second half of the year [2] - The Chinese yuan is projected to strengthen, driven by clearer trade prospects and improved corporate earnings, with the possibility of reaching or exceeding 7 against the dollar in the first half of next year [2] - Oil prices are expected to fluctuate between $65 and $70 per barrel, as supply growth outside OPEC slows down and demand may exceed expectations [2] - A supply gap in copper is anticipated to reach 400,000 tons, with prices potentially hitting $13,000 per ton by the end of next year if global economic growth accelerates [2]