对于人民币汇价，他预期人民币汇率走强趋势持续，贸易前景变得清晰、股市走好带动企业盈利、出口 商将汇回内地等都成为驱动力。他预期明年上半年人民币汇价有机会触7，甚至升穿7。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室全球大宗商品及外汇主管施德铭(Dominic Schnider)表示，由于预期明年全 球经济增长加速、部份大宗商品价格便宜、股票和大宗商品之间的相关性一直较低，投资者分散投资， 看好大宗商品后市表现，建议可以扩大黄金以外的投资范畴，尤其认为能源和谷物的价格便宜。 他又指，各国的支持政策将有利经济，例如美国的大而美法案，德国也愿意采取更多刺激措施。风险方 面，以美国为例，消费者信心正在逐年减速，即使企业盈利及信心不俗，但也需要看到消费者信心回 升，随经济增长加速，将带来帮助。 美元方面，施德铭预期，美元明年可能仍有低至中单位数的下跌空间，但随政策利率接近中性时，市场 便会开始对美元转趋乐观，故预期美元于下半年将靠稳。 然而，他认为，即使分散配置，金价亦已飞升，由于金价被视为避风港，相信投资者不会因而重置黄金 的配置。瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室预期明年金价大致处于4500美元，到第四季或回落至4300美元。 施德铭指， ...

Group 1: Gold and Oil Price Predictions - UBS raises gold price target for the end of 2025 to $3,800 per ounce, up from $3,500, and expects it to reach $3,900 by mid-2026 [1] - Citigroup forecasts Brent crude oil prices to decline to $60 per barrel in the next 6 to 12 months, citing a tug-of-war between weakening fundamentals and rising geopolitical risks [1] - MUFG notes that oil prices stabilized after geopolitical tensions pushed them up, with traders weighing weak demand against oversupply [3] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Insights - S&P indicates that the ECB has likely ended its rate-cutting cycle, but persistent inflation is still pressuring consumer confidence [1] - Deutsche Bank suggests that low interest rates may persist until 2027, with core inflation forecasts being adjusted downwards [1] - Morgan Stanley delays its ECB rate cut expectation to December, acknowledging significant global growth risks [2] Group 3: U.S. Economic Outlook - CICC highlights that U.S. inflation remains elevated, with August CPI rising 0.4% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, indicating a risk of "stagflation" [6] - CITIC Securities maintains its forecast for three rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, each by 25 basis points, as inflation remains stable [7] Group 4: Electronics and AI Sector Growth - CITIC Construction Investment reports a recovery in the consumer electronics and semiconductor sectors, driven by AI capabilities, with a projected revenue growth of 19.2% for the electronic sector in the first half of 2025 [8] - Galaxy Securities expresses optimism for the PCB and domestic computing sectors, anticipating a resurgence in the foldable screen market by 2026 [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Trends - CITIC Construction Investment notes that while the overall performance of the real estate sector remains under pressure, some quality firms are stabilizing their profit margins [9] - The land market shows signs of recovery, with major firms increasing land acquisition by 31% year-on-year [10]

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67 per barrel from $65 [1] - The net profit forecasts for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were increased by 16% and 10% to RMB 157 billion and RMB 160 billion respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares of China Petroleum was raised from HKD 6.8 to HKD 8, while the target price for A-shares was increased from RMB 9.5 to RMB 10, reflecting a 40% premium of A-shares over H-shares in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, energy prices continued to decline, with Chinese thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices dropping by 12% and 9% respectively, and Brent crude oil prices falling by 11% [1] - The apparent demand for Chinese thermal coal in the first five months of 2025 was 1.647 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while oil demand was 381 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Bank of America Securities expects the earnings of Chinese energy producers to decline quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 due to weak energy demand and falling prices [1] Group 3 - China Petroleum's Q2 2025 net profit is expected to be RMB 39.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% and a year-on-year decline of 7% [2] - The decline in net profit for China Petroleum is driven by lower realized oil prices, weak oil and gas demand, and lackluster downstream performance [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386) is expected to report a Q2 net profit of RMB 6.3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 55% and a year-on-year decline of 66% due to lower oil and gas prices and potential inventory losses affecting refining margins [2]