国外 花旗指出，油价正处于基本面日益看淡与地缘政治风险加剧的拉锯战之中，因应欧佩克+决定自今年10 月起逐步撤回自愿减产行动，假设俄罗斯油供应受军事冲突限制在每日1010万桶，以及预测沙特原油供 应于明年维持在每日1030万桶，现时重申布兰特期油价格今年底至明年回落的预期，预料未来三个月将 回落至每桶65美元，未来6至12个月降至每桶60美元。 3. 标普：欧洲央行降息已结束，但粘性通胀仍令信心承压 瑞银：将黄金2025年底目标价格上调3800美元/盎司（此前为3500美元/盎司），并预计到2026年年中将 达到3900美元/盎司（此前为3700美元/盎司）。上调对黄金ETF持仓量的预期，预计到2025年底，其持 仓量将接近此前略高于3900公吨的纪录高点。 1. 瑞银：将黄金2025年底目标价格上调3800美元/盎司 2. 花旗：预计未来6至12个月布油将回落至每桶60美元 摩根大通现预计欧洲央行将在今年12月降息，而非此前预计的10月降息25个基点，此前欧洲央行在最新 政策会议上维持利率不变。摩根大通策略师在9月11日的报告中写道："我们意识到欧洲央行可能已经结 束降息，但全球增长风险依然显著，而且通胀预 ...

Group 1 - Bank of America Securities raised the average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2025 to $67 per barrel from $65 [1] - The net profit forecasts for China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00857) for fiscal years 2025 and 2026 were increased by 16% and 10% to RMB 157 billion and RMB 160 billion respectively [1] - The target price for H-shares of China Petroleum was raised from HKD 6.8 to HKD 8, while the target price for A-shares was increased from RMB 9.5 to RMB 10, reflecting a 40% premium of A-shares over H-shares in the past 12 months [1] Group 2 - In Q2 2025, energy prices continued to decline, with Chinese thermal coal and metallurgical coal prices dropping by 12% and 9% respectively, and Brent crude oil prices falling by 11% [1] - The apparent demand for Chinese thermal coal in the first five months of 2025 was 1.647 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, while oil demand was 381 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1] - Bank of America Securities expects the earnings of Chinese energy producers to decline quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2025 due to weak energy demand and falling prices [1] Group 3 - China Petroleum's Q2 2025 net profit is expected to be RMB 39.7 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 15% and a year-on-year decline of 7% [2] - The decline in net profit for China Petroleum is driven by lower realized oil prices, weak oil and gas demand, and lackluster downstream performance [2] - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (00386) is expected to report a Q2 net profit of RMB 6.3 billion, a quarter-on-quarter decline of 55% and a year-on-year decline of 66% due to lower oil and gas prices and potential inventory losses affecting refining margins [2]