证券研究报告 "稳健锚"与"增长帆"，从红利重估到能力定价 银行行业2026年度投资策略 姓名 刘呈祥（分析师） 证书编号：S0790523060002 邮箱：liuchengxiang@kysec.cn 姓名 吴文鑫（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524060002 邮箱：wuwenxin@kysec.cn 姓名 丁黄石（分析师） 证书编号：S0790524040004 邮箱：dinghuangshi@kysec.cn 姓名 朱晓云（分析师） 证书编号：S0790123060024 邮箱：zhuxiaoyun@kysec.cn 2025年11月5日 核心观点 政策背景与投资脉络 （1）利率环境：低利率与资产荒新常态，凸显稳定高股息资产稀缺性。（2）监管周期：地方债务化解，系统性降低潜在信用风 险，夯实"稳健锚"。（3）经济转型：土地信用到科技消费驱动，对公深耕与财富管理提供"增长帆"。（4）投资逻辑进阶：买" 高股息、防御性"，同时关注银行增长动力与长期价值。 "稳健锚"的深度重估——价值的底线 （1)红利价值：业绩稳定性、股息吸引力及分红持续性；（2）扩表提质，"反内卷"下净息差或筑底回升；（3）金融市场 ...

Core Viewpoint - The first quarter report of China Merchants Bank (CMB) shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, but there are signs of recovery in wealth management fees, indicating a potential stabilization in the bank's financial performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - CMB reported operating revenue of 83.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09%, and net profit of 37.513 billion yuan, down 2.08% [1]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.94% compared to the end of the previous year [1]. - The net interest margin (NIM) fell to 1.91%, down 11 basis points year-on-year and 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Wealth Management and Non-Interest Income - Non-interest net income was 30.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.64%, accounting for 36.72% of total revenue [4]. - Wealth management fees showed improvement, with a 10.45% year-on-year increase in wealth management commission income to 6.783 billion yuan, reversing a previous decline [4][5]. - The bank's commission income from selling financial products, such as wealth management and insurance, remains under pressure due to market conditions [5][6]. Deposit Composition and Strategy - The proportion of demand deposits increased to 51.80%, with corporate demand deposits making up 58.06% and retail demand deposits 41.94% [2]. - The average daily balance of demand deposits accounted for 50.46% of the average daily balance of customer deposits, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [2]. Market Activity and Shareholder Engagement - The Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited account increased its holdings of CMB shares by approximately 128 million shares during the first quarter [7]. - CMB's average return on total assets (ROAA) and average return on equity (ROAE) were 1.21% and 14.13%, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline [7]. Management Outlook - CMB's management aims to stabilize the net interest margin and improve the commission income from wealth management, contingent on the overall stabilization of the capital market [6][7]. - The bank is cautious about increasing dividends to maintain a balance between return on equity and capital adequacy [7].