Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of stable high-dividend assets in a low-interest-rate environment, highlighting the scarcity of such assets as a key investment opportunity [4][12] - It discusses the regulatory cycle and the reduction of potential credit risks through local debt resolution, reinforcing the concept of a "stable anchor" for banks [4][15] - The economic transformation from land credit to technology and consumption-driven growth is seen as providing a "growth sail" for banks, particularly in corporate deepening and wealth management [4][18] Policy Background and Investment Context - The low interest rate environment and asset scarcity highlight the attractiveness of stable high-dividend assets, with bank stocks favored for their strong performance stability and high dividend yields [4][12] - The ongoing resolution of local government debt is expected to reduce systemic credit risks, thereby solidifying banks' "stable anchor" [4][15] - The shift towards technology and consumption is anticipated to enhance banks' growth potential, particularly in wealth management and corporate services [4][18] Deep Revaluation of "Stable Anchor" - Bottom Line of Value - The report identifies the stability of earnings, attractiveness of dividends, and sustainability of payouts as key components of dividend value [5] - It notes that the expansion of bank balance sheets and the potential recovery of net interest margins are crucial for long-term value [5] - Enhanced investment capabilities in financial markets and asset circulation are highlighted as factors contributing to banks' stability [5] "Growth Sail" Capability Breakthrough - Elasticity of Value - The report emphasizes the importance of stable and high risk-adjusted return on capital (RAROC) for banks, which reflects their efficiency in capital usage [6] - It points out the advantages of wealth attributes and customer base, as well as strong non-performing asset management capabilities [6] - The ability to adjust and manage financial market investments effectively is seen as a significant strength for banks [6] Medium to Long-term Incremental Capital Drivers - Good Wind with Favorable Conditions - The report suggests a potential trend shift in insurance capital allocation towards bank equities, with a target dividend yield of 3.5%-4% seen as a reasonable baseline [7] - It notes that actively managed equity funds are currently underweight in bank stocks, while asset management companies (AMCs) are accelerating their investments in this sector [7] Investment Recommendations: Hold "Stable Anchor" and Raise "Growth Sail" - The report recommends a foundational allocation in large state-owned banks, with H-shares offering better value than A-shares, particularly for Agricultural Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank [8] - Core allocations should focus on banks that combine stability with strong wealth management capabilities, such as China Merchants Bank and CITIC Bank [8] - For flexible allocations, it suggests high-quality regional banks with unique characteristics in specific areas or business lines, such as Jiangsu Bank and Chongqing Bank [8] Dividend Value Analysis - The report indicates that the operating income of listed banks grew by 0.91% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with net profit growth of 1.48% [28] - It highlights the significant performance differentiation among banks, with state-owned banks showing stable revenue growth while smaller banks face challenges [28][30] - The report notes that the dividend sustainability of banks is influenced by profitability, dividend policies, and capital considerations, with larger banks maintaining a more stable dividend distribution [41][43]

Core Viewpoint - The first quarter report of China Merchants Bank (CMB) shows a decline in both revenue and net profit, but there are signs of recovery in wealth management fees, indicating a potential stabilization in the bank's financial performance [1][4]. Financial Performance - CMB reported operating revenue of 83.751 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.09%, and net profit of 37.513 billion yuan, down 2.08% [1]. - The non-performing loan ratio decreased by 0.01 percentage points to 0.94% compared to the end of the previous year [1]. - The net interest margin (NIM) fell to 1.91%, down 11 basis points year-on-year and 3 basis points quarter-on-quarter [1][2]. Wealth Management and Non-Interest Income - Non-interest net income was 30.755 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.64%, accounting for 36.72% of total revenue [4]. - Wealth management fees showed improvement, with a 10.45% year-on-year increase in wealth management commission income to 6.783 billion yuan, reversing a previous decline [4][5]. - The bank's commission income from selling financial products, such as wealth management and insurance, remains under pressure due to market conditions [5][6]. Deposit Composition and Strategy - The proportion of demand deposits increased to 51.80%, with corporate demand deposits making up 58.06% and retail demand deposits 41.94% [2]. - The average daily balance of demand deposits accounted for 50.46% of the average daily balance of customer deposits, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [2]. Market Activity and Shareholder Engagement - The Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited account increased its holdings of CMB shares by approximately 128 million shares during the first quarter [7]. - CMB's average return on total assets (ROAA) and average return on equity (ROAE) were 1.21% and 14.13%, respectively, both showing a year-on-year decline [7]. Management Outlook - CMB's management aims to stabilize the net interest margin and improve the commission income from wealth management, contingent on the overall stabilization of the capital market [6][7]. - The bank is cautious about increasing dividends to maintain a balance between return on equity and capital adequacy [7].